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How high would you go for Cole?

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#41 SmellEm

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Posted 09 December 2019 - 05:37 PM

 

I'm sorry, but one guy isn't going to turn this around.There is a problem with the culture that needs to be addressed.

 

Thank goodness someone didn't feel the same way about Jack Morris in 1991 as the Twins were coming off a 74 win season. Or the 1985 team that was out of contention in August when they traded for Blyleven.  

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#42 tvagle

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Posted 09 December 2019 - 05:45 PM

Here's what 9/$315M could look like for your Minnesota Twins from now until 2029

 

Too many Extensions and Contract signings to list

 

Take a look at each year and if I felt I could keep existing players I listed their names

 

Blank Roster spots are yours to fill in and or pool together to sign a higher contract...ask questions if it's too confusing :)

 

2020 Team Blue Print copy
 
#SoYou'reSayingWeGottaChance

 

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I'm going to need a Falvine definition of the word IMPACT in regards to MLB Hurlers


#43 COTwinsFan

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Posted 09 December 2019 - 05:59 PM

 

I'm sorry, but one guy isn't going to turn this around.There is a problem with the culture that needs to be addressed.

 

Turn this around?? The Twins won 101 games. Our culture this past year was one of the best in baseball. 

 

I do think it is interesting that 5 out of the last 6 World Series Champs had at least 1 starting pitcher making a minimum of $20 million annually. I think this is a clear indicator that to truly win at the highest level you have to spend on high priced, high impact pitching. I don't necessarily think the Twins need to sign Cole, but I believe spending $36 million annually on Gerrit Cole is a much better investment than $20 million annually on Madison Bumgarner. 

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#44 sweetmusicviola16

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Posted 09 December 2019 - 06:08 PM

 

 

Here's what 9/$315M could look like for your Minnesota Twins from now until 2029

 

Too many Extensions and Contract signings to list

 

Take a look at each year and if I felt I could keep existing players I listed their names

 

Blank Roster spots are yours to fill in and or pool together to sign a higher contract...ask questions if it's too confusing :)

 

 
 
#SoYou'reSayingWeGottaChance

 

Nicely done. After we've won the next 3 WS with Cole he can be traded too.

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#45 ewen21

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Posted 09 December 2019 - 06:22 PM

Thank goodness someone didn't feel the same way about Jack Morris in 1991 as the Twins were coming off a 74 win season. Or the 1985 team that was out of contention in August when they traded for Blyleven.


Different era different game different circumstances

#46 h2oface

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Posted 09 December 2019 - 06:31 PM

 

This might be an exaggeration.Cole made $13.5M last year and threw 3362 pitches.That comes out to $4,015 per pitch.Even if he gets...say....$35M AAV and throws the same number of pitches, you are still only looking at $10,410 per pitch, which......I would dare to guess you make more than that.

 

Good thing you don't have to waste $16K/intentional walk then......and then $40K!

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#47 IndianaTwin

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Posted 09 December 2019 - 06:50 PM

I enjoy looking at the "similarity scores" section on a guy's baseball-reference.com page. I'm not a smart enough geek to claim how predictive they are, but on the surface, they often seem to be on target. 

 

So for Cole, the most similar players at particular ages were Syndergaard (at age 22), Marichal (23), Millwood (24), Nola (25), McDowell (26), Millwood (27), and Strasburg (28).

 

The guys with the most similar stats through their age 28 season are Strasburg, Price, Santana, Weaver, Oswalt, Peavy, Hamels, Cueto, Hudson, Verlander.

 

Those are good players, but looking back at the careers of the seven guys who have passed age 35 (all but Strasburg, Price, and Cueto), in my opinion the only one who earned close to 7/$245MM money was Verlander. He pitched an average of 206 innings with a 5.0 WAR in those years.

 

As a group, those seven averaged only 158 innings and 2.9 WAR per season. Keep in mind that those are driven up by Verlander. There's an 86 percent chance you get an average of 150 innings and 2.6 WAR. And if you managed to get a Santana/Weaver/Oswalt/Peavy, you got 133 innings and a little less than 2.0 WAR.

 

And as a reference point, Odorizzi pitched 159 innings with a 3.6 WAR this year. Do we really want to pay $27 million for something less than Jake Odorizzi for the next seven years? I don't.

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#48 prouster

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Posted 09 December 2019 - 06:59 PM

Joel Sherman of the New York Post is guessing that 9/324 is the over/under.

I think that’s approaching (blowing right past?) the point of diminishing returns. Cole is an extremely good pitcher, but the words “David Price” should haunt any GM who makes that offer.
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#49 Rosterman

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Posted 09 December 2019 - 07:09 PM

Seriously, I would be hard-pressed to go to five years on any playe any more. I would maybe stretch it for the right position player (with an option year or two) if youa re getting them at a decent age.

 

Part of it is just...well Mauer. He was worth the money. But he also hurt the Twins because you basically had to find space, have him play everyday, and at a position you didn't expect him to be at (at least for as long) and in which you probably wanted different production.

 

Money is not an issue. Is Odorizzi worth $17.5 million? No. But you can do it for this year, and he might be motivated to pitch the best season he ahs ever pitched knowing he will go into free agency.

 

I like the Astros idea of taking on a big contract with a couple of years left. All depends on your current payroll situation.

 

But a starting pitcher. 32-35 games. Can he win 25 of those games. Can you team win 25 of those games or more because of the performance of the pitcher? Sure, you want a firebrand for the post-season, but you have to egt to the post-season.

 

 

 

 

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#50 FlauerPauer

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Posted 09 December 2019 - 07:22 PM

100-million-dollars-2gg3hb.jpg

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#51 prouster

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Posted 09 December 2019 - 07:23 PM

Joel Sherman of the New York Post is guessing that 9/324 is the over/under.

I think that’s approaching (blowing right past?) the point of diminishing returns. Cole is an extremely good pitcher, but the words “David Price” should haunt any GM who makes that offer.


Meanwhile, Jayson Stark is guessing somewhere around 8/280. A slightly smaller AAV, and obviously a year less.

#52 ewen21

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Posted 09 December 2019 - 08:11 PM

 

Turn this around?? The Twins won 101 games. Our culture this past year was one of the best in baseball. 

 

 

Yes.I said turn this around.

 

How many playoff losses have we had in a row. Is it bad luck?Is it that the other team is that much better?

 

That certainly cannot be the case and therefore (to me) there is a problem with the culture in this organization.It seems to me they are willing to pack it in and call it a "successful season" (just like Cuddyer did after the last 3-and-out) after winning a division.On the other hand, when the Yankees went down to Houston in the second round after a hard fought series Aaron Judge called it a "failure"

No tantrum.No anger.Just a different sent of expectations.Calmly stated, I might add.

 

Baldelii did the complete opposite and while I have talked about it before it bears repeating:No way in the world should he be telling everyone "I'm not frustrated at all".Unacceptable and I am a Rocco guy (maybe not so much now)

Best keep that a secret if you feel that way.I am sorry, but a team that wins 101 games should aspire for more than a 3-and-out in round one.

 

Had we gotten further, I would be more on board with throwing more money at a guy like Cole.What is the point to it?We win 110 games and then lose in the first round again?


#53 ewen21

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Posted 09 December 2019 - 08:15 PM

 

Seriously, I would be hard-pressed to go to five years on any playe any more. I would maybe stretch it for the right position player (with an option year or two) if youa re getting them at a decent age.

 

Part of it is just...well Mauer. .

 

 

 

 

I agree with you.It is not a smart play for the Twins (or other teams that aren't very wealthy) to roll the dice.Joey Votto's contract has hurt the Reds and he has had years way better than what Mauer had during his contract.


#54 tony&rodney

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Posted 09 December 2019 - 08:53 PM

How high would you go for Cole?

If I read this correctly, that is the topic.

Leave Mauer out of it.

So, how high? 7/$252M - maybe we lose out again.

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#55 SwainZag

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Posted 09 December 2019 - 09:12 PM

 

Yes.I said turn this around.

 

How many playoff losses have we had in a row. Is it bad luck?Is it that the other team is that much better?

 

That certainly cannot be the case and therefore (to me) there is a problem with the culture in this organization.It seems to me they are willing to pack it in and call it a "successful season" (just like Cuddyer did after the last 3-and-out) after winning a division.On the other hand, when the Yankees went down to Houston in the second round after a hard fought series Aaron Judge called it a "failure"

No tantrum.No anger.Just a different sent of expectations.Calmly stated, I might add.

 

Baldelii did the complete opposite and while I have talked about it before it bears repeating:No way in the world should he be telling everyone "I'm not frustrated at all".Unacceptable and I am a Rocco guy (maybe not so much now)

Best keep that a secret if you feel that way.I am sorry, but a team that wins 101 games should aspire for more than a 3-and-out in round one.

 

Had we gotten further, I would be more on board with throwing more money at a guy like Cole.What is the point to it?We win 110 games and then lose in the first round again?

 

And they could sign Cole for 40M a season and lose Game 1, 2-1 and go onto get swept.Baseball is a team game and I think some people forget this offense only scored 6 runs in 3 games against the Yankees.That more than likely isn't getting it done even if they had 2 aces in today's game.

 

Everyone aspires for a better than 3 and out but throwing gaudy money at Cole isn't going to automatically win anything. The team with Cole and Verlander lost this year.Strasburg, the guy who just signed the biggest SP AAV contract ever, just won his 1st playoff series this year and he's been in the league for 10 years.  

 

I'd love to be wrong here, but a team like the Twins cannot afford the negative ramifications that signing THAT kind of contract could have.

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#56 Mike Sixel

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Posted 09 December 2019 - 10:07 PM

I enjoy looking at the "similarity scores" section on a guy's baseball-reference.com page. I'm not a smart enough geek to claim how predictive they are, but on the surface, they often seem to be on target.

So for Cole, the most similar players at particular ages were Syndergaard (at age 22), Marichal (23), Millwood (24), Nola (25), McDowell (26), Millwood (27), and Strasburg (28).

The guys with the most similar stats through their age 28 season are Strasburg, Price, Santana, Weaver, Oswalt, Peavy, Hamels, Cueto, Hudson, Verlander.

Those are good players, but looking back at the careers of the seven guys who have passed age 35 (all but Strasburg, Price, and Cueto), in my opinion the only one who earned close to 7/$245MM money was Verlander. He pitched an average of 206 innings with a 5.0 WAR in those years.

As a group, those seven averaged only 158 innings and 2.9 WAR per season. Keep in mind that those are driven up by Verlander. There's an 86 percent chance you get an average of 150 innings and 2.6 WAR. And if you managed to get a Santana/Weaver/Oswalt/Peavy, you got 133 innings and a little less than 2.0 WAR.

And as a reference point, Odorizzi pitched 159 innings with a 3.6 WAR this year. Do we really want to pay $27 million for something less than Jake Odorizzi for the next seven years? I don't.


Check out the articles about the Strasburg signing for interesting info on his comps and for those players worked out. You might be surprised.... If Cole has similar comps, he's surprisingly likely to be worth this deal....
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It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#57 Mike Sixel

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Posted 09 December 2019 - 10:09 PM

And they could sign Cole for 40M a season and lose Game 1, 2-1 and go onto get swept. Baseball is a team game and I think some people forget this offense only scored 6 runs in 3 games against the Yankees. That more than likely isn't getting it done even if they had 2 aces in today's game.

Everyone aspires for a better than 3 and out but throwing gaudy money at Cole isn't going to automatically win anything. The team with Cole and Verlander lost this year. Strasburg, the guy who just signed the biggest SP AAV contract ever, just won his 1st playoff series this year and he's been in the league for 10 years.

I'd love to be wrong here, but a team like the Twins cannot afford the negative ramifications that signing THAT kind of contract could have.


How well has not signing big time free agents worked out for this team?
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It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#58 sdangus

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Posted 09 December 2019 - 10:15 PM

And how many years did Joe Mauer's contract tie the Twins hands? One $10,000 pitch and a torn up shoulder and it could all be over for Cole. Not a risk the Twins can afford to take. 

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#59 nicksaviking

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Posted 09 December 2019 - 10:43 PM

And how many years did Joe Mauer's contract tie the Twins hands?

Zero. They went up to the 11th highest payroll when they extended him and we’re back to 24th two years later.
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#60 nicksaviking

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Posted 09 December 2019 - 10:48 PM

Cole is an extremely good pitcher, but the words “David Price” should haunt any GM who makes that offer.


I heard GM tears are the first ingredient in World Series trophy polish.