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How high would you go for Cole?

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#21 drivlikejehu

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Posted 08 December 2019 - 11:51 AM

 

My thinking is that paying the Crons or the Rosarios makes little sense when you can get equal production from a Kirilloff and a Larnach. It's the 1+ bWAR guys about to make that $7.5M number that get moved to let you retain a couple of frontline starters and a couple of perennial all-star position players, but yeah, I'm a fan of Tampa Bay. I'm looking to trade high-value veterans, at close to peak trade value, when I have a replacement, if I think the rookie will almost immediately exceed the current player's production. So if I think, for example, that Gordon and Lewis are going to produce more than Arraez and Polanco, I'm shopping the latter two for a prospect haul. It may not work, as it places the onus squarely on exceptional prospect development.

 

Tampa Bay does a phenomenal job. But I'm not exactly sure what it would look like if you increased their payroll from $65 million to $150 million. I mean, that would have to have a big impact, right?

 

Some of the guys they've had to trade, they would have kept, in turn missing out on some prospects, creating needs elsewhere, which they would have the budget to fill in free agency . . . it just changes the entire situation.

 

And I also wonder if they gain an advantage from *always* having to trade guys away. Some of them, they must realize are overrated (is there any doubt they knew Delmon Young wouldn't be missed?). Chris Archer could be another one. With most teams, other clubs would wonder about why someone was available . . . for instance, it was obvious to even me that the Dodgers were dangling De Leon to everyone back in the day because he wasn't healthy. They had a bunch of pitching prospects and, strangely, were just willing to give up one particular guy. But with the Rays, everyone gets traded, so there's no way to pick up when it's someone they actually don't like that much.

 

In terms of how this all fits into the topic . . . the Twins can afford to pay a high salary to a player who produces, but they can't afford to pay a high salary for nothing. And that's the problem with pitchers and the risk profile. 

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#22 sweetmusicviola16

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Posted 08 December 2019 - 01:42 PM

NYY has offered 7/245 for Cole. 8/280 beats it. Get it done Falvine. lol

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#23 ScooterDance

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Posted 08 December 2019 - 02:33 PM

I don’t care if we suck years 5,6,7. Decent chance we suck in 5 years anyway.

I’ll take 4 years where I feel like we have a legit WS shot.
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#24 JD Green

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Posted 08 December 2019 - 02:49 PM

For what the Twins can afford, they would be trying to spell team with an I. What have Trout and Otani done for the Angels? How about Darvish for the Cubs? Joe Mauer's contact. Don't see a good ending here.
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#25 nicksaviking

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Posted 08 December 2019 - 02:52 PM

For what the Twins can afford, they would be trying to spell team with an I. What have Trout and Otani done for the Angels? How about Darvish for the Cubs? Joe Mauer's contact. Don't see a good ending here.


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#26 Brandon

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Posted 08 December 2019 - 04:19 PM

Minnesota should come out with a 7 year 250 million offer so someone else can beat it and they can come back and say they had the highest offer until the bidding went past our comfort level and it would be true.and then go out and sign Bumgarner and Donaldson.

 

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#27 tony&rodney

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Posted 08 December 2019 - 04:23 PM

The Twins need to ask Boras if Cole wants/ is willing to pitch for the Twins. An honest answer of interest should be expected from Boras and Cole. If the answer is yes, 7 years at $36M per or $252M is about the limit of risk for the Twins.

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#28 Greglw3

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Posted 08 December 2019 - 05:47 PM

 

Let’s say Cole would sign if we gave him enough money. How high would you be willing to go? What if we could get him for 8 years, 300 million and no less. Would you for a shot at the World Series ring and probably mortgaging our future (years 5-8 of the contract)? I’m saying I would do it, but that’s probably my max.
Would you be willing to go higher knowing the long term consequences? If you won’t go that high, what is your max offer?
Feel free to include your max offers for Strasburg, Bumgarner and Ryu as well!I would be pretty happy with that but here’s my World Champion plan:

 

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Here’s my response to another reader’s plan....we’re thinking alike.

Using Spotrac.com I took the top 19 salaries for the 2020 Twins and came up with 95.02 million.

I read an article from a team exec that he/she expects the final salary for Cole to be 280 million over 8 years, which is 35 million per. Twins should swoop in and blow Cole away while Dogers/NY are much lower and do the deal tomorrow or Tuesday.

Add Donaldson at 54/3 = 18 million

Then fill out with four MLB minimum salaries such as Stashak, Graterol adds another 2.23 million.

This is $160 million dollar payroll for 25 players and a possible World Championship for at least 3 years or more.Why not do it???They’ll bring in much more money with a real WS Champion caliber team all year.


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#29 nicksaviking

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Posted 08 December 2019 - 06:47 PM

The Twins need to ask Boras if Cole wants/ is willing to pitch for the Twins. An honest answer of interest should be expected from Boras and Cole. If the answer is yes, 7 years at $36M per or $252M is about the limit of risk for the Twins.


As much as I don’t like it, the player and agent would be doing themselves a disservice if they actually said no.

#30 tony&rodney

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Posted 08 December 2019 - 07:07 PM

 

As much as I don’t like it, the player and agent would be doing themselves a disservice if they actually said no.

 

You might be correct but this is very sad if true. There should still be a space for honesty somewhere in business. Idealism is not a synonym for naiveté, I don't dismiss the reality of your comment.


#31 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 09 December 2019 - 03:11 PM

so much for this being a slow offseason... 


#32 nicksaviking

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Posted 09 December 2019 - 03:29 PM

I would now offer Cole $245,000,000.99.

 

It's really interesting though that Strasburg got the exact amount that was leaked the Yankees were willing to pay Cole. Surely it's just a coincidence that both pitchers have the same agent.

 

It's almost as if someone wanted to tell the Yankees, "Ha, ha good one! Oh wait, you're serious?!?" 

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#33 sweetmusicviola16

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Posted 09 December 2019 - 03:34 PM

 

so much for this being a slow offseason... 

Tyler Kinley claimed by the Rockies.

 

Oh yeah, and that Strasburg deal. That means the Twins are set up to go after Cole then.

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#34 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 09 December 2019 - 03:40 PM

I would now offer Cole $245,000,000.99.

$245,000,000.99?

That is .98 cents of poor financial stewardship :)
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#35 bustedstuff88

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Posted 09 December 2019 - 03:45 PM

This might be an exaggeration. Cole made $13.5M last year and threw 3362 pitches. That comes out to $4,015 per pitch. Even if he gets...say....$35M AAV and throws the same number of pitches, you are still only looking at $10,410 per pitch, which......I would dare to guess you make more than that.


Cole makes more on 3 pitches than I do in a year lol
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#36 goulik

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Posted 09 December 2019 - 04:12 PM

The best offer any of us on here had was 6/210 for Strasburg as given by sweetmusicviola16. He had the right average annual salary but was a year short. (unless Notoriousgod71 meant "blank check" for all 4 of them...)

 

I am now wondering how high Cole will go. These numbers have been huge! I am now very confident Cole will be at minimum 8 years and at minimum 280 Just to beat Strasburg with same annual salary. I am also thinking it will take at least 3/66 for Ryu.  

 

Here are the bests offered by us so far:

Cole 8/300 given by Goulik and matched twice in this thread

Ryu 3/70 given by Beckmt (two offers of 4/75 were out there but that is less per year)

Mad Bum 4/90 offered by Tony&Rodney

 

At this rate, will any of these be enough?


#37 beckmt

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Posted 09 December 2019 - 04:25 PM

Baumgarner is looking for north of $100, Cole according to Boras is looking for north of $300 over 8 years and more for 9 or 10.This is insane folks, but to win I feel we probably are going to have to pay.


#38 rv78

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Posted 09 December 2019 - 04:29 PM

I would go 3/70 on Ryu.

Cole will be too expensive even tho I'd like to see him in a Twins uniform next year and beyond.

I'd stay away from Madbum.

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#39 Cap'n Piranha

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Posted 09 December 2019 - 05:08 PM

If the Front Office is good at finding and developing talent, the Twins should be able to offset an unproductive (relatively speaking) Cole in years 5+.If the Front Office is not good at finding and developing talent, we won't be able to take advantage of HOF-caliber Cole at almost any point of the contract.

 

The Angels, as were previously referenced, have not struggled because of all the money they gave Trout--it's because of all the money they gave Pujols and Upton for replacement level production, combined with a general inability to take advantage of cheap talent.

 

Therefore, since it's the fans' money (it doesn't become Jim Pohlad's money until we give it to him in return for Twins-related content), I say do what it takes to get this done now, while we have a very nice core of talent that is young, cheap, and proven all at the same time, with an above-average farm system to supplement in whatever way is needed.If now is not the time to push the chips to the middle, I don't know when that time will be.

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#40 ewen21

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Posted 09 December 2019 - 05:20 PM

 

I don’t care if we suck years 5,6,7. Decent chance we suck in 5 years anyway.

I’ll take 4 years where I feel like we have a legit WS shot.

I'm sorry, but one guy isn't going to turn this around.There is a problem with the culture that needs to be addressed.