Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.
Photo

Front Page: What the Early Twins Offseason Rumblings Tell Us

miguel sano jason castro cj cron
  • Please log in to reply
84 replies to this topic

#61 jorgenswest

jorgenswest

    Senior Member

  • Member
  • 4,523 posts

Posted 02 December 2019 - 06:40 PM

I hope the Twins sign Wheeler. He is a playoff caliber starting pitcher.

I am not convinced he is better than Odorizzi (also a playoff caliber starting pitcher in my opinion).

He is moving from a NL pitcher friendly park to Minnesota. It will have an impact on his overall numbers.

Here is some data that I am sure some will disregard.

The last two seasons pitchers have come to the plate against him 106 times. He has turned 98 of those plate appearances into outs giving up 7 hits and 1 walk while striking out 56. In the AL he will face a DH instead. Those additional PAs are going to eat into his innings per start and increase his number of high pitch count innings.

In his 5 AL park starts over the last two years he has thrown 28 innings in 5 starts. Those starts were against New York, Kansas City, Chicago, Toronto and Baltimore. The Yankees are awesome but don’t you think he should have been more dominant against the other 4? The White Sox are the only team where he pitched 7 innings.

I want Wheeler but I have no expectation that his numbers will be close to his CitiPark numbers. Unless baseball takes some of the life out of the baseball I think we should expect somewhere near 6 innings per start while strikeout and walk rates merge closer together when he isn’t feasting off opposing pitchers.

It is very likely that someone will pay a heavy premium for AL performance that isn’t much different than Odorizzi’s. I am kind of hoping that team is the Twins.
  • birdwatcher and DocBauer like this

#62 sweetmusicviola16

sweetmusicviola16

    Ft Myers Miracle

  • Member
  • 341 posts

Posted 02 December 2019 - 06:42 PM

 

LOL

 

Don't trade prospects, don't sign Free Agents. In Carl's ghost we trust. 

 

I'm done with it. If they don't spend at least 100 million on starting pitching this year, it's a massive failure. You want Ryu? Fine, bring him in here along with Wheeler or Bumgartner. I've got no problem with that and it should also be more than possible. 

We aren't the little engine that could anymore. This team is filled with a roster full of boppers and athleticism that is young. It's time to go for it. Sign the studs or trade for them. Our fanbase deserves it, as well as the entire roster that has more than proven their worth. 

I tend to agree. If you don't go for it now then when will we?

 

Berrios, Odo and say Graterol will make about 23mil this season. The time is now to offer Cole 35mil and Wheeler 23mil. Higher if need be. Yes the payroll will be at 150mil. Next year 40mil can come off for Cruz, Rosario, Marwin and Odo. In a year a number of the prospects will be ready.

  • BK432, Mike Sixel and Battle ur tail off like this

#63 Mike Sixel

Mike Sixel

    Now living in Oregon

  • Member
  • 31,160 posts

Posted 02 December 2019 - 06:44 PM

 

I hope the Twins sign Wheeler. He is a playoff caliber starting pitcher.

I am not convinced he is better than Odorizzi (also a playoff caliber starting pitcher in my opinion).

He is moving from a NL pitcher friendly park to Minnesota. It will have an impact on his overall numbers.

Here is some data that I am sure some will disregard.

The last two seasons pitchers have come to the plate against him 106 times. He has turned 98 of those plate appearances into outs giving up 7 hits and 1 walk while striking out 56. In the AL he will face a DH instead. Those additional PAs are going to eat into his innings per start and increase his number of high pitch count innings.

In his 5 AL park starts over the last two years he has thrown 28 innings in 5 starts. Those starts were against New York, Kansas City, Chicago, Toronto and Baltimore. The Yankees are awesome but don’t you think he should have been more dominant against the other 4? The White Sox are the only team where he pitched 7 innings.

I want Wheeler but I have no expectation that his numbers will be close to his CitiPark numbers. Unless baseball takes some of the life out of the baseball I think we should expect somewhere near 6 innings per start while strikeout and walk rates merge closer together when he isn’t feasting off opposing pitchers.

It is very likely that someone will pay a heavy premium for AL performance that isn’t much different than Odorizzi’s. I am kind of hoping that team is the Twins.

 

Of course, advanced stats take into account the NL/AL thing.....he's a good pitcher. He has very good stuff. I get that you like him, but if you discount every NL pitcher, and every AL pitcher on a playoff team, and every pitcher with more than 2 years of control left....who is left?

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#64 jorgenswest

jorgenswest

    Senior Member

  • Member
  • 4,523 posts

Posted 02 December 2019 - 07:25 PM

Of course, advanced stats take into account the NL/AL thing.....he's a good pitcher. He has very good stuff. I get that you like him, but if you discount every NL pitcher, and every AL pitcher on a playoff team, and every pitcher with more than 2 years of control left....who is left?

If discount means expect fewer innings per start, lower overall strikeout rate and higher overall walk rates then yes every AL team should factor in this discount. He had a 56-1 strike out to walk ratio facing pitchers the last two years. There has to be a discount.

A discount is different from a dismiss. I don’t dismiss a pitcher because he is an NL pitcher. The Twins need to sign him. They need another pitcher of the caliber of Berrios and Odorizzi. Wheeler is that caliber.
  • birdwatcher, Mike Sixel and sweetmusicviola16 like this

#65 TNTwinsFan

TNTwinsFan

    Member

  • Member
  • 372 posts

Posted 02 December 2019 - 08:12 PM

1. Sign Wheeler. Sign Alex Wood. 2. Sign Castro. 3. With the depth in the Pen, a couple reclamation projects is fine by me. Probably going to have to rotate those guys in and out at the bottom of the Pen anyway. Maybe Johnson strikes gold a couple more times. 4. Sign Donaldson YESTERDAY!!! 5. I think the White Sox are a bit further away than the national media market believes them to be. But, I guess with all that money they might be able to be more competitive. I wouldn't be too concerned just yet.
  • birdwatcher likes this

#66 Darius

Darius

    Rochester Red Wings

  • Member
  • 1,653 posts

Posted 02 December 2019 - 08:19 PM

The market on pitchers being driven up is worst case scenario for those still holding out hope that the Twins may actually loosen the purse strings this offseason.

I get the feeling we’re all going to be pretty frustrated with our sitting place when the music stops. I’m bracing myself.

Think about this: The White Sox just signed Grandal recently after a 72 win season. It’s bigger than any free agent contract ever awarded by the Twins, and would be among the richest contracts in Twins’ franchises history. If we’re still saying that come training camp...just shut the whole thing down.

#67 DocBauer

DocBauer

    Senior Member

  • Member
  • 5,882 posts

Posted 02 December 2019 - 08:35 PM

Not comparing the two guys directly, but coming off the WC season a couple years ago the Twins offered Darvish over $100M.

Now, coming off a 101 win season and plenty of financial room, there is no reason not to expect a major signing. Now exactly who is hard to predict. There are other teams offering and the pitcher has to decide he wants to play for our Twins and can see success coming here.

Not sure how anyone couldn't see impending success at this point.
"Nice catch Hayes...don't ever f*****g do it again."

--Lou Brown


#68 mikelink45

mikelink45

    Junior Member

  • Member
  • 2,817 posts

Posted 02 December 2019 - 08:38 PM

Is there any better season for sports fans? Everyone we dream about is willing to sign with our team for the contract about we are willing to give them. Every rookie it's ready to fulfil all promise, a potential we saw last year it's guaranteed 3 fulfilled this year. There are no failures, only successes and we move into the next season with full optimism. I just had my birthday yesterday and I know the next year is bound to be even greater than this year.
  • Oldgoat_MN likes this

#69 Battle ur tail off

Battle ur tail off

    Ft Myers Miracle

  • Member
  • 499 posts

Posted 03 December 2019 - 11:53 AM

 

Not comparing the two guys directly, but coming off the WC season a couple years ago the Twins offered Darvish over $100M.

Now, coming off a 101 win season and plenty of financial room, there is no reason not to expect a major signing. Now exactly who is hard to predict. There are other teams offering and the pitcher has to decide he wants to play for our Twins and can see success coming here.

Not sure how anyone couldn't see impending success at this point.

 

Yes, but the offer could also be looked at as not competitve. He signed for more than that. To me, that's the old "we tried" offer. They knew he would get more and didn't lay out what it took to get him. Wheeler probably signs for 5/110. Twins will probably offer 4/75. 

  • Mike Sixel likes this

#70 DocBauer

DocBauer

    Senior Member

  • Member
  • 5,882 posts

Posted 03 December 2019 - 12:18 PM

Yes, but the offer could also be looked at as not competitve. He signed for more than that. To me, that's the old "we tried" offer. They knew he would get more and didn't lay out what it took to get him. Wheeler probably signs for 5/110. Twins will probably offer 4/75.


But the Twins offered Darvish over $100M and if I recall correctly, the same annual $. It was the 6th year Chicago tacked on that got the deal done.

I see no reason why the Twins wouldn't go to the $100M for Wheeler. Now, if the numbers go to $25M per yr or 6yrs, I can see them walking away and looking at the next couple of guys. (Which reports say they are).

I think comparing Darvish and Wheeler might be a little unfair, which is why I didn't initially. But a couple years apart, they are at least comparable as one of the top FA SP available.
"Nice catch Hayes...don't ever f*****g do it again."

--Lou Brown


#71 Battle ur tail off

Battle ur tail off

    Ft Myers Miracle

  • Member
  • 499 posts

Posted 03 December 2019 - 12:24 PM

I get it, but it the history of this organization is to offer up deals like that they know won't be accepted. If Wheeler takes 110 and they offer 100, it won't be good enough and just another token offer. To be honest, he should be signed by us already. Quit postering and get a deal done. 


#72 Physics Guy

Physics Guy

    Senior Member

  • Member
  • 1,084 posts

Posted 03 December 2019 - 03:28 PM

 

I get it, but it the history of this organization is to offer up deals like that they know won't be accepted. If Wheeler takes 110 and they offer 100, it won't be good enough and just another token offer. To be honest, he should be signed by us already. Quit postering and get a deal done. 

Why would they be posturing? Do you really think they would make the offer if they didn't think he might accept it?Why would they waste their time. They chose to limit their offer to 5 years and from what I can tell, the Cubs may have been the only ones to go to 6 years. Not going to 6 years for Darvish wasn't necessarily a bad decision, considering where the Twins were at two years ago.IMO, they are in must better shape to go for it this year. I sense your frustration from several posts, but it's early yet.How many big name pitchers have been signed in early December the past five years?

  • 70charger and DocBauer like this

#73 Doctor Wu

Doctor Wu

    Pensacola Blue Wahoos

  • Member
  • 801 posts

Posted 04 December 2019 - 05:58 AM

 

But Santa has magic ;)

But better check that red-nosed reindeer for PEDs!

  • USAFChief likes this

#74 Doctor Wu

Doctor Wu

    Pensacola Blue Wahoos

  • Member
  • 801 posts

Posted 04 December 2019 - 06:14 AM

Rumblings? I wish. So far all I hear are mumbles and groans. Still waiting for a trade or signing that actually makes an impact.


#75 Battle ur tail off

Battle ur tail off

    Ft Myers Miracle

  • Member
  • 499 posts

Posted 04 December 2019 - 10:07 AM

 

Why would they be posturing? Do you really think they would make the offer if they didn't think he might accept it?Why would they waste their time. They chose to limit their offer to 5 years and from what I can tell, the Cubs may have been the only ones to go to 6 years. Not going to 6 years for Darvish wasn't necessarily a bad decision, considering where the Twins were at two years ago.IMO, they are in must better shape to go for it this year. I sense your frustration from several posts, but it's early yet.How many big name pitchers have been signed in early December the past five years?

 

Why posturing? To make the fans feel as if they are actually gonna open the pocket books. Public relations. Some people eat it up that we are "IN" on someone. 

 

I didn't say it was a bad idea to not offer Darvish 6 years. That said, this is a recurring theme with our favorite team. If it takes so and so amount to sign these guys, we offer in just below that value and say "we tried".


#76 spanman2

spanman2

    Junior Member

  • Member
  • 271 posts

Posted 04 December 2019 - 11:20 AM

 

In an environment where Kyle Gibson gets $30 Million over 3 years, probably this is a year to stay out of the bidding wars on the top and 2nd tier free agents. Re-sign Pineda, and go with Odorizzi and Berríos as the top 3. Then let the rest of the Twins roster fight for the last two spots Graterol, Dobnak, Thorpe, Romero, Smeltzer and others can try to prove themselves. Or the Twins should look to make a trade for x starter. Otherwise, the Twins pay big bucks for Wheeler based on potential more than past performance, or pay big bucks for aging and likely declining pitchers like Ryu and Mad-Bum.

I think what you described in terms of $$$ is going to be it moving forward...you could say it already has been as well I believe.  

I WAS TOLD I WOULD NEVER MAKE IT BECAUSE I AM TOO SHORT. WELL, I'M STILL TOO SHORT. IT DOESN'T MATTER WHAT YOUR HEIGHT IS. IT'S WHAT'S IN YOUR HEART.

KIRBY PUCKETT

#77 howieramone2

howieramone2

    Just say no to myths!

  • Member
  • 1,719 posts
  • LocationMaple Grove/Schaumburg

Posted 04 December 2019 - 11:59 AM

 

Why posturing? To make the fans feel as if they are actually gonna open the pocket books. Public relations. Some people eat it up that we are "IN" on someone. 

 

I didn't say it was a bad idea to not offer Darvish 6 years. That said, this is a recurring theme with our favorite team. If it takes so and so amount to sign these guys, we offer in just below that value and say "we tried".

You could say that about every team in every sport. Any team that comes in second "didn't try".


#78 Mike Sixel

Mike Sixel

    Now living in Oregon

  • Member
  • 31,160 posts

Posted 04 December 2019 - 12:54 PM

You could say that about every team in every sport. Any team that comes in second "didn't try".


It's a pattern. If it wasn't a pattern, it would be different....

That said, it is way too early to judge this off season yet....way too early
  • Battle ur tail off likes this

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#79 howeda7

howeda7

    Senior Member

  • Member
  • 1,878 posts

Posted 04 December 2019 - 01:00 PM

 

The FA environment is always the same. If not now at this point where our need is the greatest its ever been, then when?

This. If they don't spend significant $$ on starting pitching because "the market went crazy" than Falvine and the Pohlads are negligent in their roles and should sell/move on.


#80 howeda7

howeda7

    Senior Member

  • Member
  • 1,878 posts

Posted 04 December 2019 - 01:03 PM

If they're out on Wheeler, fine, but they better have a back-up plan. MadBaum as the second move is fine. He can't be the main acquisition.




Also tagged with one or more of these keywords: miguel sano, jason castro, cj cron