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Grandal to the Palehose - Looks like someone else wants to play

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#61 spycake

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Posted 22 November 2019 - 10:22 AM

 

Can't agree more. And you didn't mention perhaps the biggest snare: if you have a stud bat at catcher, by whatever means of acquisition, it puts pressure on your roster. Because, if you say "we want that bat in the lineup at DH, even when he's not catching," your manager is going to be constantly begging for some form of third catcher. And you can't attract a top level DH to your team, because he'll know he can't play full time. (In a non-DH league, the problem merely transfers identically to 1B.)

I think "managers might ask for a third catcher" is an exaggerated problem (even Gardy didn't have a 3rd catcher that often), but it doesn't seem to apply here at all. Grandal played some 1B last year, and the Brewers had exactly 1 day of 3 catchers on their roster before September.

 

And there aren't often "top level DH/1B" on the FA market, at least not ones that separate themselves in value from the next tier at that position. And the White Sox already got arguably the best 2019 FA DH/1B under contract for 2020 (Abreu).

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#62 spycake

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Posted 22 November 2019 - 10:37 AM

 

My question with Grandal would be that he is 31 years old. How much longer is he going to be a catcher, if he isn't a catcher, is he really worth this contract?Very few catchers are able to stay at that position into there 30's. 

FWIW, Grandal's had a lighter workload than some other catchers:

 

 

Grandal’s not young (he turned 31 a couple of weeks ago), but he also doesn’t have an obscene number of innings behind the plate. Even adding in his minor league record, Grandal knee-odometer has fewer than 900 professional catching starts on them. (Contrast that with players like Buster Posey at nearly 1,100 at the same age and Yadier Molina around 1,300.)

 

Plus, Grandal's been as solid as ever with the bat at age 29-30 -- I don't know if you should really compare him to, say, Lucroy, who had a big down year at 29, or Brian McCann, who had a down year at age 30, or Wieters, who wasn't particularly good at either 29 or 30. Those guys may have already been showing signs of an early 30s decline by the age Grandal is now.

 

No guarantees, of course, but it would appear the White Sox have good reason to bet on him for a few years at least. (And they don't necessarily need him to still be a stud catcher at age 34 -- that season may just have been the price required to get his age 31-32-33 seasons.)


#63 Vanimal46

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Posted 22 November 2019 - 10:41 AM

Abreu signs extension.

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#64 spycake

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Posted 22 November 2019 - 10:41 AM

 

but instead are obligated for his 2023 production at $18M plus when he'll be 35.

Not quite -- Grandal will turn 35 in Nov. 2023, after this contract is over. Age 31-34 seasons.


#65 spycake

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Posted 22 November 2019 - 10:43 AM

 

I'm not sure how to rank batters PA by position played

In the Fangraphs "Split" drop down menu, you can select a position and it will show only the stats the player or team accumulated at that position:

 

https://www.fangraph...-12-31&sort=5,d


#66 Mike Sixel

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Posted 22 November 2019 - 10:53 AM

Way too much for Abreu. They must really be planning to up the budget.
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It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#67 Mike Sixel

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Posted 22 November 2019 - 11:16 AM

“it’s also undeniable that Abreu has emerged as the heart of the White Sox in recent years. The front office, ownership and teammates alike have lauded Abreu for his leadership and the manner in which he mentors young players as they arrive on the scene. He’s also a fixture in the community on the south side of Chicago and is generally beloved by Sox fans. All of that surely factors in when pricing out a deal and is particularly likely to resonate with owner Jerry Reinsdorf, who has been vocal about his desire to keep Abreu in a Sox uniform (as has GM Rick Hahn).”

https://www.mlbtrade...jose-abreu.html
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It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#68 USAFChief

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Posted 22 November 2019 - 11:31 AM

 

I don't think that follows at all.

 

A workhorse starting pitcher faces more batters' plate appearances in a season, than a full-time position player has plate appearances. Trevor Bauer led the majors by pitching to 911 PA in 2019; Marcus Semien went to the plate 747 times.If anything, it supports the notion to pay handsomely for the right pitcher.

 

I'm not sure how to rank batters PA by position played, but Realmuto may have led the majors with 568 PA as a catcher. That is more of a difference compared to the league leading batter, than the difference between top pitcher and top batter.

 

It's not the literal "every day" aspect. It's the quantity.

 

If the smileyface icon you included means your comment was entirely a joke, I guess I forgot to laugh. :)

If you're comparing batters faced by Bauer to PAs by Semien, shouldn't you include the value Semien provided defensively? How many opposing PAs did he defend against?

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#69 spycake

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Posted 22 November 2019 - 11:35 AM

 

If you're comparing batters faced by Bauer to PAs by Semien, shouldn't you include the value Semien provided defensively? How many opposing PAs did he defend against?

Good point.

 

Not to mention, SPs have a large impact on a fairly small number of games, while position players have a small impact on a large number of games. I'm not sure how that all balances, but I wouldn't necessarily expect a 1:1 ratio in PA / batters faced.

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#70 USAFChief

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Posted 22 November 2019 - 11:45 AM

 

Way too much for Abreu. They must really be planning to up the budget.

Way too much? Career .862 OPS. Worst season is a 117 OPS+. He's a good hitter. Durable, reliable, middle of the order bat. 

 

 

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#71 spycake

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Posted 22 November 2019 - 01:34 PM

 

Way too much? Career .862 OPS. Worst season is a 117 OPS+. He's a good hitter. Durable, reliable, middle of the order bat. 

Abreu also just had his two worst seasons at age 31-32. He was already an edge case for QO at 1/17.8 -- there's definitely an argument that they probably didn't have to commit to his age 33-35 seasons at this rate.

 

Of course, it's not enough that it's going to hurt them either, even if Abreu declines further. And it mitigates some of the risk of filling that spot year-to-year (i.e. Yonder Alonso last year).


#72 ashbury

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Posted 22 November 2019 - 02:21 PM

If you're comparing batters faced by Bauer to PAs by Semien, shouldn't you include the value Semien provided defensively? How many opposing PAs did he defend against?

If that was an important factor, no-hit good-glove guys would be pulling in the big bucks, but they aren't. Now that Andrelton Simmons's hitting has regressed, his relatively modest contract is widely considered an overpay, isn't it? Back to catching, Jeff Mathis seems to have a pretty good defensive rep - considering his pathetic contributions year after year after year he has to - but his peak salary was $3.25M. GM's just don't pay that much of a premium for defense. Grandal is being paid for his bat. It's not a very efficient way to fill the DH spot (which seems to be the intended effect even if he's not literally the DH on a given day).

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If your attack appears to be going well, then you're in an ambush.


#73 Mike Sixel

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Posted 22 November 2019 - 04:20 PM

 

Way too much? Career .862 OPS. Worst season is a 117 OPS+. He's a good hitter. Durable, reliable, middle of the order bat. 

 

Those guys aren't paid that much now, and we are going to assume he keeps up his career numbers as he enters his mid-30s? this is all about the intangible stuff, imo.

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#74 Mike Sixel

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Posted 22 November 2019 - 04:21 PM

 

Good point.

 

Not to mention, SPs have a large impact on a fairly small number of games, while position players have a small impact on a large number of games. I'm not sure how that all balances, but I wouldn't necessarily expect a 1:1 ratio in PA / batters faced.

 

I know chief will love this, but it is one of the uses of WAR....comparing value across positions.

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#75 biggentleben

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Posted 24 November 2019 - 02:30 PM

 

McCann + Grandal = best catching combo in MLB

Maybe that’s a bit expensive, but I think it’s a good move for them.

 

McCann was a negative defender last year. Grandal is a monster upgrade over a bat-first backup type.

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#76 Vanimal46

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Posted 21 December 2019 - 07:06 PM

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#77 Sconnie

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Posted 21 December 2019 - 07:22 PM

So that means Ryu will sign for what? 4 years 76 to 5 years 98?
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#78 Vanimal46

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Posted 21 December 2019 - 07:26 PM

So that means Ryu will sign for what? 4 years 76 to 5 years 98?


I remember posting something in the Ryu thread people in the industry think 4/80 is the minimum.
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#79 cardsfan

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Posted 23 December 2019 - 09:06 AM

If Ryu stays healthy which is a big if.

#80 Diesel

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Posted 25 December 2019 - 07:35 PM

Uh oh
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