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Grandal to the Palehose - Looks like someone else wants to play

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#41 darin617

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Posted 21 November 2019 - 06:41 PM

 

Yeah but during those 100 games the pitches are going to be beautifully framed

So what happens when robo umpire takes over? You just overpaid for a catcher.


#42 darin617

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Posted 21 November 2019 - 06:49 PM

 

If Kopech comes back healthy this year, they have quite a few very nice pieces going forward.

 

Don't forget about Luis Robert once he comes up. The #3 prospect in MLB. The Sox should pass Cleveland in 2020 and if the Twins are not careful they will be as well.


#43 Dman

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Posted 21 November 2019 - 06:56 PM

 

The White Sox are up and coming and just around the corner and this type of signing announces their intention to keep turning that corner. 

 

However... With that said... I'm glad they spent resources on an expensive catcher instead of elsewhere. 

 

I typically get resistance when I say things like I'm about to say but will say it anyway. 

 

If I was a GM... I would never pay a big free agent contract for a catcher nor would I trade significant talent to trade for one.  

 

Catcher's don't play every day... You get more bang for the buck investing in other positions. Catchers need rest and they get injured more often. I get that there is a canyon between Grandal and Herrmann and that is what the 73 million is buying but you are still spending your resources in an area where you overall production is limited due to playing time and health.  

 

The 73 Million the White Sox just spent is 73 Million that they won't spend on something that might produce more at another position.  

 

Clubs need to get very serious about growing their own. If they develop extra... trade it because it is over-valued.  

 

I will agree with you that they over payed for Grandal but I don't think they see him as just a catcher either.I think they will round robin Grandal, McCann and Abreau through the DH spot to keep those guys fresh and hopefully the bats hot.The Sox had 4 guys OPS over 800 and McCann was just under 800 so adding another solid bat makes sense for them.They still need better production in RF, 2nd and possibly center but a couple more acquisitions or if Ready Luis Robert in right and Madrigal at 2nd could give them a pretty good lineup as well. 

 

The Sox have a lot of young pitching so getting a guy that can steal strikes makes sense and given the youth they have they also have the payroll room to spend on a catcher.The only issue I see with this move is if he regresses early as a catcher as he would be a pretty expensive DH at that point.The Sox can still get a pitcher or two in FA but they have Rodon coming back Cease and Gioloto are still there and if Kopek returns to form quickly there won't be a lot of room in the rotation anyway.Things have to go right with their young guys for them to make a run but it can happen. The only thing they don't have in their system is catcher as good as Grandal but by overpaying now they are set there.I still think it is a good move for them despite your excellent analysis.:)

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#44 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 21 November 2019 - 07:15 PM

So what happens when robo umpire takes over? You just overpaid for a catcher.

eh, that’s at least several years away yet I bet.
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#45 ashbury

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Posted 21 November 2019 - 08:33 PM

The principle of not spending good money on players who don’t play every day is suspect to me. It pretty much rules out any free agent starting pitchers better than Odorizzi at this point. :)

I don't think that follows at all.

 

A workhorse starting pitcher faces more batters' plate appearances in a season, than a full-time position player has plate appearances. Trevor Bauer led the majors by pitching to 911 PA in 2019; Marcus Semien went to the plate 747 times.If anything, it supports the notion to pay handsomely for the right pitcher.

 

I'm not sure how to rank batters PA by position played, but Realmuto may have led the majors with 568 PA as a catcher. That is more of a difference compared to the league leading batter, than the difference between top pitcher and top batter.

 

It's not the literal "every day" aspect. It's the quantity.

 

If the smileyface icon you included means your comment was entirely a joke, I guess I forgot to laugh. :)

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#46 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 21 November 2019 - 09:00 PM

I don't think that follows at all.
 
A workhorse starting pitcher faces more batters' plate appearances in a season, than a full-time position player has plate appearances. Trevor Bauer led the majors by pitching to 911 PA in 2019; Marcus Semien went to the plate 747 times.If anything, it supports the notion to pay handsomely for the right pitcher.
 
I'm not sure how to rank batters PA by position played, but Realmuto may have led the majors with 568 PA as a catcher. That is more of a difference compared to the league leading batter, than the difference between top pitcher and top batter.
 
It's not the literal "every day" aspect. It's the quantity.
 
If the smileyface icon you included means your comment was entirely a joke, I guess I forgot to laugh. :)

Not entirely. :)

By the same token, while a catcher works fewer hours than other position players, a catcher is in the game and handles every pitch. If Grandal is as good as advertised, this contract would have looked nice on the Twins, who don’t have any other big league catching ready yet behind Garver. Astudillo is ok.
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#47 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 21 November 2019 - 09:03 PM

A few weeks ago, Twins Daily writer Patrick Wozniak wrote a story on the advantages of signing Yasmani Grandal to the Twins. And of course the member comments, too.

That article can be checked out here: http://twinsdaily.co...asmani-grandal/
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#48 Vanimal46

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Posted 21 November 2019 - 09:41 PM

I won't criticize CWS by any means for this decision, but I can agree with SwainZag's characterization of it being a hefty price. First for the obvious reason that CWS isn't buying his 2013 production, but instead are obligated for his 2023 production at $18M plus when he'll be 35.

B'ref had Grandal's WAR at 2.5 in 625 AB's. (Not sure where MMMordabito's 5.2 number came from). In comparison, to add context, Garver's WAR was 4.0 in 340 AB's, and Castro gave us another 0.7 WAR in 237, although he wore down big time over the final month or so and gave back about 0.9 WAR.

But hey, CWS has some cheap stars and has an extra $60M to burn through each year, so they can take these gambles.

The 5.2 number is Grandal's fWAR, which appears to be the standard here on TD when it comes to talking about pitchers. Why the big difference between his fWAR and bWAR? I'm not your guy for that answer...

It's possible the Twins are paying for Castro's age 35 season if they re-sign him ;). Grandal is far more talented than him so I think it's a good move for the White Sox.

If it takes longer to develop catchers I would hope they can be relied upon later in their 30s compared to other positions on the field!

Edited by Vanimal46, 21 November 2019 - 09:41 PM.


#49 birdwatcher

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Posted 21 November 2019 - 10:37 PM

 

The 5.2 number is Grandal's fWAR, which appears to be the standard here on TD when it comes to talking about pitchers. Why the big difference between his fWAR and bWAR? I'm not your guy for that answer...

It's possible the Twins are paying for Castro's age 35 season if they re-sign him ;). Grandal is far more talented than him so I think it's a good move for the White Sox.

If it takes longer to develop catchers I would hope they can be relied upon later in their 30s compared to other positions on the field!

 

If they sign Castro for more than 2 years and $12M I'd be shocked, wouldn't you?

 

For CWS, Grandal makes sense, but he doesn't make as much sense for the Twins really. For a lot less than $18M, they can get innings covered at C and 1B that Grandal/Garver might handle and focus on real deficiencies (pitching). Kirilloff might be up in 2020, and let's remember that Garver wasn't more highly touted than Ryan Jeffers is now, so who knows?

 

Just for giggles, a quick look at some of those B-ref WAR numbers for veteran catchers. Note that Realmuto was the high guy at 4.4 in 580 AB's and Garver was next with 4.0 WAR in 340 ABS:

 

Molina 1.0

Grandal 2.4

Posey 0.7

Ramos 2.2

Wieters 0.5

Zunino 0.2

Lucroy -1.0

 

I'm cool with them re-upping Castro for a year or two and hoping Rortvedt or Jeffers push him aside in 2021/22.

 

 


#50 Riverbrian

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Posted 21 November 2019 - 11:27 PM

 

Can't agree more. And you didn't mention perhaps the biggest snare: if you have a stud bat at catcher, by whatever means of acquisition, it puts pressure on your roster. Because, if you say "we want that bat in the lineup at DH, even when he's not catching," your manager is going to be constantly begging for some form of third catcher. And you can't attract a top level DH to your team, because he'll know he can't play full time. (In a non-DH league, the problem merely transfers identically to 1B.)

 

If your third-round draft pick (*cough*Realmuto*cough*) turns out to be that stud, so be it, you have one of those so-called nice problems to have - at least until he becomes expensive. But to pay good money for that? No. To invest a high first-round draft pick for that? No again, for me. Apply those scarce resources to other problems.

 

The exception is if you're a rich team. Buy that expensive catcher. Pay for a top-shelf DH. And when it's that catcher's day off, tell him, "nah, rest up. Big game for you tomorrow." You can afford to pay idle resources, even when they are that good, when you are that rich.

 

Yep, Yep and Yep. 

 

It could be successfully argued that Ryan Braun had a better year at the plate. Similar for sure. It could also be successfully argued that Moustakas had a similar year at the plate. 

 

It could also be successfully proven that Moustakas will not make the same money as Grandal and he will quite like play more than Grandal does. 

 

Catching is an over-pay.:)

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#51 Riverbrian

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Posted 21 November 2019 - 11:31 PM

 

The principle of not spending good money on players who don’t play every day is suspect to me. It pretty much rules out any free agent starting pitchers better than Odorizzi at this point. :)

 

Yeah but you kinda have to strongly consider that a starting pitcher has the ability to shut down an enitre lineup of superstars, when he is doing his thing.

 

No position player will ever possess the weight a starting pitcher carries in any game. 

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#52 Riverbrian

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Posted 21 November 2019 - 11:37 PM

 

I will agree with you that they over payed for Grandal but I don't think they see him as just a catcher either.I think they will round robin Grandal, McCann and Abreau through the DH spot to keep those guys fresh and hopefully the bats hot.The Sox had 4 guys OPS over 800 and McCann was just under 800 so adding another solid bat makes sense for them.They still need better production in RF, 2nd and possibly center but a couple more acquisitions or if Ready Luis Robert in right and Madrigal at 2nd could give them a pretty good lineup as well. 

 

The Sox have a lot of young pitching so getting a guy that can steal strikes makes sense and given the youth they have they also have the payroll room to spend on a catcher.The only issue I see with this move is if he regresses early as a catcher as he would be a pretty expensive DH at that point.The Sox can still get a pitcher or two in FA but they have Rodon coming back Cease and Gioloto are still there and if Kopek returns to form quickly there won't be a lot of room in the rotation anyway.Things have to go right with their young guys for them to make a run but it can happen. The only thing they don't have in their system is catcher as good as Grandal but by overpaying now they are set there.I still think it is a good move for them despite your excellent analysis.:)

 

Renteria hasn't shown this tendency yet but I believe it makes perfect sense. If they keep both Grandal and McCann... McCann can't gather dust, they will have to find playing time for him and then Grandal will have to DH. But as Asbury points out... That's fine... but Grandal stats become less amazing as a DH. His contract is a pure typical catcher over-pay. Money spent on position scarcity.

 

The other option... Maybe Hahn thinks he can get something for McCann now in a trade. Catcher is an over-pay position. That means that McCann might bring back something interesting in a trade. The Astros are looking for a catcher and they are well over budget. McCann would be perfect for the Astros. 

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#53 Riverbrian

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Posted 21 November 2019 - 11:41 PM

 

Not entirely. :)

By the same token, while a catcher works fewer hours than other position players, a catcher is in the game and handles every pitch. If Grandal is as good as advertised, this contract would have looked nice on the Twins, who don’t have any other big league catching ready yet behind Garver. Astudillo is ok.

 

If that's the case... The Bat is just gravy. Go get the guy who keeps pitchers below a 3.00 ERA with his skill.

 

I'd pay that guy 80 million a year.:)

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#54 tony&rodney

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Posted 21 November 2019 - 11:45 PM

Good for Grandal and good for the White Sox. Look again at the WAR; he's a player and will certainly improve the team. I wonder if a move to the AL with opportunities to DH and get a few more days off from catching will help his legs and stamina. I was hoping that he could be enticed to sign with the Twins for 3/60, but he did better. Twins need to add some pitching though and we are patiently waiting.


#55 Dman

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Posted 22 November 2019 - 08:36 AM

 

. But as Asbury points out... That's fine... but Grandal stats become less amazing as a DH. His contract is a pure typical catcher over-pay. Money spent on position scarcity.

 

 

 

I agree with the overpay analysis but the beauty of this move for the White Sox IMO is that even on off days you are getting a good bat and glove at catcher.While the monetary value of the DH is not there keeping both catchers fresh is a clear team advantage throughout the season and since both are pretty good with the bat as well they still give some value back being a DH.That gives the White Sox an advantage in every game then as the catcher spot is never a black hole for the offense.In fact it as asset.If you have the cap space and your pitching is young and cheap then I think a move like this makes a lot of sense even if you have to overpay a bit.

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#56 Riverbrian

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Posted 22 November 2019 - 09:11 AM

 

I agree with the overpay analysis but the beauty of this move for the White Sox IMO is that even on off days you are getting a good bat and glove at catcher.While the monetary value of the DH is not there keeping both catchers fresh is a clear team advantage throughout the season and since both are pretty good with the bat as well they still give some value back being a DH.That gives the White Sox an advantage in every game then as the catcher spot is never a black hole for the offense.In fact it as asset.If you have the cap space and your pitching is young and cheap then I think a move like this makes a lot of sense even if you have to overpay a bit.

 

I agree... The combination of Grandal and McCann (if McCann remains the same McCann) should push the White Sox into a clear Catching position advantage over the majority or even all of baseball. That is a goal that all teams should strive for but... 

 

Purely for example purposes. The White Sox spent 73M for a player who if he doesn't DH will split time with McCann and they already had McCann. This limits his playing time and It is quite possible that they could have picked up... (Name out of hat... I'm not considering White Sox needs)... Mike Moustakas for example. Exact same production plus Ozuna for the same amount of money spent.  

 

So instead of upgrading two positions... they have only upgraded one position. I consider this good news for the Twins. 

 

And Ash mentioned... If they go with the Grandal DH'ing when McCann plays... They have stopped themselves from trading for J.D. Martinez or even signing Castellanos. I consider this good news for the Twins. 

 

All of these points are just different ways of carving the turkey. Anytime you acquire a talented player... it is good news for the club. The White Sox are better today than they were before the acquisition. 

 

I worry about the White Sox... I think they are coming and they are not far behind. I know they have money to spend and as a Twins Fan... I'm happy they chose to spend a big chunk of that money on Grandal because that money can't be spent at other places on the diamond now.:)

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#57 Shaitan

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Posted 22 November 2019 - 09:30 AM

 

My question with Grandal would be that he is 31 years old. How much longer is he going to be a catcher, if he isn't a catcher, is he really worth this contract?Very few catchers are able to stay at that position into there 30's. 

 

Do you have stats on this? I feel like there are more 35+ catchers in the league than most other positions...maybe RP. I would agree that very few elite hitting catchers stay at that position into their 30s.

 

But the majority of back-up, glove-first catchers in the league, the Mike Redmonds (not sure he was glove-first, but you get the point) and Tom Princes and Drew Buteras of the world, seem to play forever.

 


#58 spycake

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Posted 22 November 2019 - 10:05 AM

 

$18.25M per year.A lot of coin for a guy who is going to catch 100 games per year and strike out 1/4 of the time.

?

 

Grandal caught in 137 games last year (124 starts).

 

And Grandal's K rate last year was 22.0%, below the MLB non-pitcher average of 22.4%.


#59 Dman

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Posted 22 November 2019 - 10:05 AM

 

I agree... The combination of Grandal and McCann (if McCann remains the same McCann) should push the White Sox into a clear Catching position advantage over the majority or even all of baseball. That is a goal that all teams should strive for but... 

 

Purely for example purposes. The White Sox spent 73M for a player who if he doesn't DH will split time with McCann and they already had McCann. This limits his playing time and It is quite possible that they could have picked up... (Name out of hat... I'm not considering White Sox needs)... Mike Moustakas for example. Exact same production plus Ozuna for the same amount of money spent.  

 

So instead of upgrading two positions... they have only upgraded one position. I consider this good news for the Twins. 

 

And Ash mentioned... If they go with the Grandal DH'ing when McCann plays... They have stopped themselves from trading for J.D. Martinez or even signing Castellanos. I consider this good news for the Twins. 

 

All of these points are just different ways of carving the turkey. Anytime you acquire a talented player... it is good news for the club. The White Sox are better today than they were before the acquisition. 

 

I worry about the White Sox... I think they are coming and they are not far behind. I know they have money to spend and as a Twins Fan... I'm happy they chose to spend a big chunk of that money on Grandal because that money can't be spent at other places on the diamond now.:)

 

Touche'.They do have three positions that could use better offensive production IMO so you are right that they could have spent that money elsewhere and likely gotten more value.They also could use another top of the rotation starter to complete their team. 

 

I think if they can get the pieces they need and their young guys step up they have a chance at the division if not this year then next for sure.They need a little luck this year to do it IMO but injuries can change things in a hurry.I don't think they have the offensive depth that the Twins have but if they get a few more pieces and stay healthy I think they will be right there with us.

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#60 bighat

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Posted 22 November 2019 - 10:09 AM

 

$18.25M per year.A lot of coin for a guy who is going to catch 100 games per year and strike out 1/4 of the time.

 

Their other catcher is McCann, who was an all-star last year. Is Grandal really going to even catch 100 games for them? I guess he's a backup 1B as well.

 

Think it's a good signing for the ChiSox, don't get me wrong.