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#41 tony&rodney

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Posted 22 November 2019 - 12:35 PM

Thing is, Syndergaard is not available per Mets GM. As far as i am concerned Wheeler can be a #4.

Bumgarner, Berrios, Odorizzi, Wheeler, and Graterol/Dobnak. As far as trades go, I cannot see teams trading Luis Castillo, Chris Paddock, Max Fried or other top controllable pitchers. Does anyone think San Diego gives up Paddock for Buxton? Do we want to trade Buxton? Sign a couple of pitchers, the money is there.


#42 Cornholio

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Posted 22 November 2019 - 12:58 PM

The most valued resource in baseball. Got it. Teams don't exactly trade young, controllable pitching away.


They may if they think you are overpaying, which is what Wheeler at 5/100 is, imo

#43 spycake

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Posted 22 November 2019 - 12:59 PM

 

If cost and control were equal, I’d take Syndergaard. Meaning, Wheeler would be 3rd best on that team, at best.

I'm still not sure that's a particularly useful way to look at it. If a team has good SP, even a non-playoff team, their 3rd best SP could still be pretty good. 2019 Cleveland, 2018 Cardinals, etc. Team rank is pretty inconsequential, compared to overall rank (as well as cost/control/availability, in this discussion from the Twins perspective -- no sense preferring to wait for players you can't have).

 

And I'll ask again: what do you think Wheeler will get paid? That's kind of a key component to saying he won't be worth it. If you think he'll get 6/140, that's a lot different than MLBTR's 5/100 or Doogie's 5/89.

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#44 Cornholio

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Posted 22 November 2019 - 01:10 PM

I’ll admit I don’t follow the Mets real close, but generally teams with 3 Aces don’t miss the playoffs. If you pay Wheeler 20 mil per, how much do you pay Berrios when his time comes? Plus, Wheeler has missed@ 3 of the last five years due to injury. The Twins have a lot of players approaching a big payday. I don’t trust that Wheeler will be healthy, and payroll will become a concern, especially if Wheeler misses more time.

#45 Cornholio

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Posted 22 November 2019 - 01:11 PM

I'm still not sure that's a particularly useful way to look at it. If a team has good SP, even a non-playoff team, their 3rd best SP could still be pretty good. 2019 Cleveland, 2018 Cardinals, etc. Team rank is pretty inconsequential, compared to overall rank (as well as cost/control/availability, in this discussion from the Twins perspective -- no sense preferring to wait for players you can't have).

And I'll ask again: what do you think Wheeler will get paid? That's kind of a key component to saying he won't be worth it. If you think he'll get 6/140, that's a lot different than MLBTR's 5/100 or Doogie's 5/89.

I’m just going by the speculated 5/100. If the cost is 6/140, no effing way.

Edited by Cornholio, 22 November 2019 - 01:13 PM.


#46 spycake

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Posted 22 November 2019 - 01:12 PM

 

I’ll admit I don’t follow the Mets real close, but generally teams with 3 Aces don’t miss the playoffs. If you pay Wheeler 20 mil per, how much do you pay Berrios when his time comes? Plus, Wheeler has missed@ 3 of the last five years due to injury. The Twins have a lot of players approaching a big payday. I don’t trust that Wheeler will be healthy, and payroll will become a concern, especially if Wheeler misses more time.

Wheeler had TJ surgery, and a setback in his initial return from it. He hasn't been missing random seasons here and there.

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#47 mbrake

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Posted 22 November 2019 - 01:14 PM

5 yrs. @ $20-22M AAV likely gets him signed, maybe a (team friendly option) 6th. yr. with vesting option based on innings pitched.He's going to get paid, the Twins need high end starting pitching, have plenty of payroll space and claimed to be ready to strike when the time is right, so... 

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#48 Cornholio

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Posted 22 November 2019 - 01:16 PM

Wheeler had TJ surgery, and a setback in his initial return from it. He hasn't been missing random seasons here and there.


If the Twins sign Wheeler, I will still be a fan. It just means that one of us will be able to say “I told you so.” No snark intended
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#49 cmoss84

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Posted 22 November 2019 - 01:17 PM

Ultimately, if you are going to spend this much on a SP, whether it is 5/89 or 5/110 or whatever it is, you better believe in his stuff to win a playoff start or two. 

 

I am tired of playing to GET to the playoffs. Sign someone who will WIN playoff games. Is Wheeler one of these guys? I trust our front office and coaches to determine that. 

I'd rather have a bottle in front of me than a frontal lobotomy.


#50 spycake

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Posted 22 November 2019 - 01:17 PM

 

They may if they think you are overpaying, which is what Wheeler at 5/100 is, imo

So let me get this straight:

 

The market estimate for Wheeler of 5/100 is an overpay... which means teams can expect to find better value options in trade?

 

I think you've got that backwards. The market estimate for Wheeler is 5/100 precisely *because* it's so difficult to find better options in trade.

 

FWIW, I wouldn't necessarily sign him to 5/100 today (although I'd be tempted too, if my scouts/coaches really liked him). But he'd be in the mix at that figure, along with other FA options. I don't expect a better (younger/controllable) pitcher to get dealt in trade, at least not any more cheaply (in terms of talent).

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#51 spycake

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Posted 22 November 2019 - 01:20 PM

 

If the Twins sign Wheeler, I will still be a fan. It just means that one of us will be able to say “I told you so.” No snark intended

I think "I told you so" type discussions are a kind of snark, definitionally.

 

If you think a better/younger/controllable starter will get dealt cheaper than that this winter (in terms of money + talent), and will be available to the Twins at that price, do I get to say "I told you so" when that doesn't happen?

Edited by spycake, 22 November 2019 - 01:28 PM.

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#52 Cornholio

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Posted 22 November 2019 - 01:29 PM

I think "I told you so" type discussions are a kind of snark, definitionally.

If you think a better/younger/controllable starter will get dealt cheaper than that this winter (in terms of money + talent), do I get to say "I told you so" when that doesn't happen?


Absolutely. I don’t think Wheeler will provide much more production than Pineda. Big Mike would be much cheaper. Just my opinion. I’m no GM.

#53 spycake

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Posted 22 November 2019 - 01:41 PM

 

Absolutely. I don’t think Wheeler will provide much more production than Pineda. Big Mike would be much cheaper. Just my opinion. I’m no GM.

For the Twins, though, it's not an "either-or", it's an "and". They probably need Pineda AND another good starter or two. I've got no qualms if you prefer Bumgarner at 4/72, etc., but for every pitcher you pass on, it increases the chance you'll wind up fishing in the Martín Pérez waters again. The Twins probably can't afford to be that choosy about FA SP this winter when we're talking about estimated market rate contracts.

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#54 twinkiesfan11

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Posted 22 November 2019 - 01:53 PM

The White Sox have been very aggressive to kick off the offseason, are reportedly among the several teams interested in Wheeler and don’t seem to be afraid to throw stupid money at free agents. They seem to be of the belief that their competitive window has opened.

I’m not so much worried about them signing Wheeler and passing the Twins in the standings but definitely concerned about them being more aggressive, taking him off the market quickly and leaving the Twins with scraps to choose from.

4/$89 sounds pretty good to me. They’ve got control of Berrios through 2023 and Odorizzi for 2020 on a QO. If it were me I’d make the 4 year commitment to Wheeler and sign Hamels to the lucrative 1 year deal he’s rumored to be looking for and let the prospects fight it out for the 5th slot. This would be a very competitive rotation in 2020, I would argue an upgrade compared to 2019. It also sets the Twins up with a lot of options for 2021with the top two slots locked in with Berrios and Wheeler, lots of promising young arms with another year of development under their belts and the option to retain Odorizzi and Hamels or let them walk and pursue other options.

#55 Cornholio

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Posted 22 November 2019 - 02:19 PM

I think "I told you so" type discussions are a kind of snark, definitionally.

If you think a better/younger/controllable starter will get dealt cheaper than that this winter (in terms of money + talent), and will be available to the Twins at that price, do I get to say "I told you so" when that doesn't happen?


My apologies. Perhaps I should have said “ If Wheeler lives up to a 5/100 deal, I will have egg on my face.” Again, no snark intended.
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#56 70charger

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Posted 22 November 2019 - 02:25 PM

 

 

Edit: he clarified in a follow-up that he meant 5 years, $89 mil (5 years at the current QO rate of $17.8 mil).

 

Doubt.

 

If it's true, I hope they get it done.

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#57 DocBauer

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Posted 22 November 2019 - 03:07 PM



Edit: he clarified in a follow-up that he meant 5 years, $89 mil (5 years at the current QO rate of $17.8 mil).


If this is factually, they should be writing up the contract even as we all blog here.

I actually think this is just about right for his value, which has me slightly confused because I've just felt certain it was going to take a slight overpay at $20M per.

Do this, Twins, and let Johnson work with him. Do it now.
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#58 Mike Sixel

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Posted 22 November 2019 - 04:14 PM

 

Correct. Acquire pitching through trades. Controllable pitching.

 

Better than Wheeler, and not from a non-playoff team, where he wasn't the team's best pitcher.

 

Like whom?

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It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#59 Major League Ready

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Posted 22 November 2019 - 04:44 PM

 

 

Edit: he clarified in a follow-up that he meant 5 years, $89 mil (5 years at the current QO rate of $17.8 mil).

 

I would like to think they would be closing this deal as we write here. IDK, maybe all of the teams have the reservations expressed here but then why are so many teams looking at him. It will be very interesting to see what it takes. I like that he has or at least it appears he has the highest ceiling of any of the FAs not named Cole or Strasburg. I would like to think Wes Johnson can help him harness his stuff.

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#60 Major League Ready

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Posted 22 November 2019 - 07:10 PM

 

Better than Wheeler, and not from a non-playoff team, where he wasn't the team's best pitcher.

 

Like whom?

 

Good point. It sounds much easier until you have to come up with a list of candidates. Although I am a little confused as to if you are saying from a playoff team or a non-playoff team.

Edited by Major League Ready, 22 November 2019 - 07:11 PM.