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#21 Lonestar

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Posted 21 November 2019 - 03:27 PM

I wonder if Falvine will go for 5 years?

 

I wonder if it would make any difference that Wheeler's agent is Jet Sports Agent -- Byron Buxton's agent.


#22 cmoss84

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Posted 21 November 2019 - 03:55 PM

what's better: 3/80 or 5/110? 

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#23 ashbury

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Posted 21 November 2019 - 04:06 PM

what's better: 3/80 or 5/110? 

The former seems like the "bet on yourself" play. But when I look at this pitcher's age-29 similarity scores on b-r.com, which someone else reminded me of in a different post, I'd say grab the guaranteed extra $30M.

 

From the team's perspective, the "bet on yourself" contract looks more like "we'll pay for just the tasty center core from the watermelon, thank you very much."

 

Three years is a long time when you're a pitcher entering your thirties.

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#24 tony&rodney

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Posted 22 November 2019 - 12:10 AM

Perhaps a major thought in deciding how high to go for Wheeler, Bumgarner, or another pitcher is to focus on the current core of the Twins and what is a reasonable budget. If the Twins want to keep the core together and just add a few pieces then there needs to be room in the Budget for $130-$140. If we are restricted to less, then the Twins need to complete some very creative trades. For simplicity, adding Wheeler for 5/100 and Bumgarner for 4/80 works. This expenditure would bring the team to the mid 130s. Personally, I wonder if $140 is in play. 


#25 cardsfan

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Posted 22 November 2019 - 08:55 AM

Wheeler's in a great place and he'll get paid. Too many teams need pitching but can't afford Cole or Strasburg so they'll go hard on Wheeler. One team will pay him more than what anyone expects. I'm not sure he gets that sixth year but I'd be very surprised if his AAV is less than 23.5m.

Those teams go hard after Wheeler? He has given up nearly 2 more runs a game to teams above .500 than below in his career. Suddenly some team can't afford Cole or Stephen Strasburg so they blow their budget on this future playoff winner.

#26 spycake

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Posted 22 November 2019 - 10:59 AM

 

Edit: he clarified in a follow-up that he meant 5 years, $89 mil (5 years at the current QO rate of $17.8 mil).

Edited by spycake, 22 November 2019 - 11:01 AM.

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#27 Cornholio

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Posted 22 November 2019 - 11:00 AM

Wheeler was, at best, the 3rd best starter on a non-playoff team. IMO, not worth what he will get paid.

#28 Tomj14

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Posted 22 November 2019 - 11:14 AM

 

Giving 30 year-old Zack Wheeler 5-6 years and, say, somewhere between M$110 - 140? Meanwhile, well inside the window of that contract, you need to pay (or not) Buxton, Sano, Berrios, even Garver, plus some number of other starting pitchers through free agency. I mean, if we're going to change 60 years of franchise history and bet big on a short-term window...I'd wish for an opportunity to go way big and get more of a needle-mover than Zack Wheeler. 

Garver will be 33 by the time he is a free agent, starting next year he has 3 years of ARB, wouldn't worry about his salary. With the way salaries are going to mid tier offensive players they could be able to afford Sano, Buxton and Berrios even if they sign Wheeler.


#29 spycake

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Posted 22 November 2019 - 11:16 AM

 

Wheeler was, at best, the 3rd best starter on a non-playoff team. IMO, not worth what he will get paid.

Well, his team has the 2-time reigning Cy Young winner on the staff, so there's no shame being behind him.

 

Not sure how you get "3rd at best" -- Wheeler had the 2nd best bWAR, 2nd best fWAR, 2nd best FIP, even including Stroman's numbers from Toronto. Admittedly he's closer to Stroman/Syndergaard in those categories than to deGrom, but again, no shame in that either -- the Twins could benefit from that level of pitcher too. (If Wheeler was closer to deGrom's numbers, he'd be in the Cole-Strasburg group for expected contract.)

 

Edit: I guess I should ask, what do you think he will get paid? MLBTR predicted 5/100. Doogie Wolfson said it could get done for 5/89 (5 years at the current QO rate).

Edited by spycake, 22 November 2019 - 11:19 AM.

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#30 Tomj14

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Posted 22 November 2019 - 11:19 AM

 

Perhaps a major thought in deciding how high to go for Wheeler, Bumgarner, or another pitcher is to focus on the current core of the Twins and what is a reasonable budget. If the Twins want to keep the core together and just add a few pieces then there needs to be room in the Budget for $130-$140. If we are restricted to less, then the Twins need to complete some very creative trades. For simplicity, adding Wheeler for 5/100 and Bumgarner for 4/80 works. This expenditure would bring the team to the mid 130s. Personally, I wonder if $140 is in play. 

If the Twins can go on a 3- 4 year run like the Astros, then I don't want to hear about a budget worries, unless is it reaching an excess of 150.

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#31 Mike Sixel

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Posted 22 November 2019 - 11:19 AM

 

Wheeler was, at best, the 3rd best starter on a non-playoff team. IMO, not worth what he will get paid.

 

By this logic, you basically sign no one?

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#32 USAFChief

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Posted 22 November 2019 - 11:20 AM

 

 

Edit: he clarified in a follow-up that he meant 5 years, $89 mil (5 years at the current QO rate of $17.8 mil).

I'd do that yesterday.

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#33 spycake

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Posted 22 November 2019 - 11:29 AM

 

I'd do that yesterday.

Unfortunately, Doogie didn't say you could do it yesterday. Only RIGHT NOW. (Which I guess has already passed too? :) )

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#34 Vanimal46

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Posted 22 November 2019 - 11:35 AM

Unfortunately, Doogie didn't say you could do it yesterday. Only RIGHT NOW. (Which I guess has already passed too? :) )


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#35 spycake

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Posted 22 November 2019 - 11:36 AM

 

I love Black Friday deals!

You heard it here first: the Twins will re-sign Martín Pérez on Cyber Monday!

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#36 nicksaviking

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Posted 22 November 2019 - 11:49 AM

 

I'd do that yesterday.

 

The Chiefs have to pay Patrick Mahomes in the next year or so, I don't think you can afford to waste the cap space. Why don't you just let the Twins have him?


#37 tony&rodney

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Posted 22 November 2019 - 12:11 PM

If the Twins can sign Wheeler today for 5/89, they should definitely do it. Yes he could only be a number three, but with Bumgarner available at 4/80, that's fine. In three years someone like Graterol or Duran or Balazovic or someone else could rise up or better yet all three. If the Twins don't act this winter they will be looking back regretfully. 

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#38 Cornholio

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Posted 22 November 2019 - 12:16 PM

By this logic, you basically sign no one?

Correct. Acquire pitching through trades. Controllable pitching.

Edited by Cornholio, 22 November 2019 - 12:18 PM.


#39 Cornholio

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Posted 22 November 2019 - 12:22 PM

[quote name="spycake" post="937187" timestamp="1574442966"]

Well, his team has the 2-time reigning Cy Young winner on the staff, so there's no shame being behind him.

Not sure how you get "3rd at best" -- Wheeler had the 2nd best bWAR, 2nd best fWAR, 2nd best FIP, even including Stroman's numbers from Toronto. Admittedly he's closer to Stroman/Syndergaard in those categories than to deGrom, but again, no shame in that either -- the Twins could benefit from that level of pitcher too. (If Wheeler was closer to deGrom's numbers, he'd be in the Cole-Strasburg group for expected contract.)

Edit: I guess I should ask, what do you think he will get paid? MLBTR predicted 5/100. Doogie Wolfson said it could get done for 5/89 (5 years at the current QO rate).[/quote
If cost and control were equal, I’d take Syndergaard. Meaning, Wheeler would be 3rd best on that team, at best.

#40 Vanimal46

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Posted 22 November 2019 - 12:34 PM

Correct. Acquire pitching through trades. Controllable pitching.


The most valued resource in baseball. Got it. Teams don't exactly trade young, controllable pitching away.
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