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Front Page: Jhoan Duran Headlines Twins Roster Additions

luke raley gilberto celestino dakota chalmers jhoan duran travis blankenhorn
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#21 Danchat

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Posted 20 November 2019 - 09:33 PM

 

seeing Raley make it, they are almost certainly going to trade/release another outfielder this winter.Should be interesting.

Especially with Rooker at AAA and then Larnach and Kiriloff at AA, it seems like something will have to give at some point. That's not even to mention the other 4th OF candidates like Cave and Wade.


#22 Seth Stohs

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Posted 20 November 2019 - 10:35 PM

 

 

A little more concerned about Rio.He has some really good secondaries but doesn't seem to have the velocity yet.Pretty young too and likely not able to help a MLB team at all.So hoping he gets passed by.

 

 

Assume you're talking about Luis Rijo. He was hitting 95-96 in 2019, so that's pretty good for a 20-21 year old. 

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#23 Seth Stohs

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Posted 20 November 2019 - 10:40 PM

 

Blankenhorn maybe, but Raley is practically ML ready. Someone steals him. Blankenhorn has a bit more upside and is still pretty close to being ready. I could see him going either way. 

 

Yup, Raley can play in the big leagues now, and he even played a bunch of CF in the spring and in the season. He's much more well-rounded than Rooker. 

 

Blankenhorn is just such a great athlete, and he started figuring things out more in 2019. If he can keep that up, he has a chance to be really good... and his versatility will help too. 

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#24 Seth Stohs

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Posted 20 November 2019 - 10:45 PM

 

Celestino is the only one I'm surprised was added. He's probably not going to be ready until 2022 at earliest and 2022 will be his final option year. He was bad at Cedar Rapids for a good 3-4 months last year. I wouldn't be surprised if he gets DFA'd before making it to the majors.

 

They should be able to sneak Rijo and Javier through the draft and wait until next year to roster them. 

 

Kepler was added after the 2013 season, and he didn't debut until the final weeks of 2015. 40-man roster spots aren't just for guys who can contribute next year. It's also for those types who can be big-time impact players in the next couple of seasons. Kepler and Polanco were both added after 2013 in Cedar Rapids... Polanco wasn't a regular until 2016. 

 

Of course, a few years before that, they added Deibinson Romero and Estarlin de los Santos after their 2008 season in Beloit. Doesn't always work out. 

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#25 Richard Swerdlick

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Posted 21 November 2019 - 04:53 AM

I find it exciting that the Twins farm system has so many quality prospects that makes for difficult decisions. Falvine are really building something special.
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#26 Dman

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Posted 21 November 2019 - 07:28 AM

 

Assume you're talking about Luis Rijo. He was hitting 95-96 in 2019, so that's pretty good for a 20-21 year old. 

 

Isn't it a little bit dangerous to leave a guy like that unprotected then?He might be able to hold down a bullpen spot for the year at the MLB level and then they could work him back as a starter.He is young enough and talented enough it looks like.Granted his K 9 isn't that great for his level but it isn't bad either.

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#27 rdehring

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Posted 21 November 2019 - 07:44 AM

Don't know what I expected, but considering 5 or 6 was all they could protect this seems reasonable.

 

My first observation was that 4 of the 5 joined the Twins via trade during the 2018 season.Don't know if there was a prejudice to protect players they brought into the system.But adding Smeltzer and Alcala earlier means that a year later 6 players on the 40-man were brought in via trade.That's a heck of a success story looking back at those trades.

 

Although there usually are surprises, I see three players who have a real chance of being selected in the draft, Javier, Jax and Rijo.Expect that Rijo could be the one most likely to come back and haunt us.The player I will be most disappointed in losing, however, is Jax.Hopefully, we get lucky and none of them are selected...which I suspect is wishful thinking on my part.

 

When you take a look at the roster it appears to be the strongest roster I have seen since I began following these guys however many years ago.Great position players with reserves that can play AND exciting prospects already on the roster. 

 

All that remains is filling out the starting rotation, adding a good lefty for the bullpen and a backup catcher.Considering that could be up to five adds, there could still be another player or two removed from the 40-man or exiting via a trade should one include a current member of the team.

 

 

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#28 071063

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Posted 21 November 2019 - 07:46 AM

Can we still add a player to the 40-man?If we decide that we want to protect Rijo, can we add him yet or is this locked until after the rule 5 draft?

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#29 rdehring

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Posted 21 November 2019 - 07:51 AM

 

Kepler was added after the 2013 season, and he didn't debut until the final weeks of 2015. 40-man roster spots aren't just for guys who can contribute next year. It's also for those types who can be big-time impact players in the next couple of seasons. Kepler and Polanco were both added after 2013 in Cedar Rapids... Polanco wasn't a regular until 2016. 

 

Of course, a few years before that, they added Deibinson Romero and Estarlin de los Santos after their 2008 season in Beloit. Doesn't always work out. 

Mentioning names like that also points out, Seth, how much the Twins 40-man roster has improved.Isn't it exciting to have this problem.Unfortunately excitement will lead to sadness on draft day when someone is plucked from the organization.  


#30 Seth Stohs

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Posted 21 November 2019 - 08:14 AM

 

Isn't it a little bit dangerous to leave a guy like that unprotected then?He might be able to hold down a bullpen spot for the year at the MLB level and then they could work him back as a starter.He is young enough and talented enough it looks like.Granted his K 9 isn't that great for his level but it isn't bad either.

 

Absolutely... he and Griffin Jax are an interesting contrast in terms of how teams view the Rule 5 draft. Jaz is 90-92, solid secondary, etc. He got a little AAA time, so by age and experience, he's close. Rijo throws 93-96, is a few years younger, but has topped out at Low-A so far. So are teams interested in ready to contribute or higher ceiling and stash? Or both... or neither..???

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#31 Seth Stohs

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Posted 21 November 2019 - 08:40 AM

 

Can we still add a player to the 40-man?If we decide that we want to protect Rijo, can we add him yet or is this locked until after the rule 5 draft?

 

They can't be. 


#32 JLease

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Posted 21 November 2019 - 09:40 AM

I was a little surprised they added Celestino; the FO must be pretty high on him. I like Jax, but there's reason to believe he could slide through in part because teams seem to be looking for higher upside guys when considering Rule V picks. Beyond that, even if he gets selected it might be tough for him to stick on the 26-man all season. but that's why i didn't think they'd protect Celestino: even on a bad team he's probably just a defensive replacement who hits very poorly next year. he needs quite a bit of work still.

 

I think they're making the right call on Raley and Blankenhorn: both are getting close to their MLB debut, both have some trade value, both have some positional flexibility that makes them easier to select. We'd lose one of them for sure.

 

I think Javier slides through. It's tough on some of these international players who come over at 16-17 because they really need the development time. Javier isn't even 21 yet and already missed a full season of development time due to a serious injury. Absent the injury, he's either on his way or at AA...or he's no longer a top prospect and has been exposed. the injury makes it a lot tougher to know who he's going to be, and really hard to put him on an MLB roster for the full year.

 

Reasonable decisions by the Twins.

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#33 rdehring

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Posted 21 November 2019 - 09:53 AM

Got a couple questions, Seth, and thought I would ask about your opinion to them. 

 

The Twins weren't able to find a spot to protect Anderson last year and he was traded.Was that done prior to the final date to be added to the 40-man (yesterday) or was it between then and the draft?Based on your experience, is it likely the Twins could pull off a trade for one of these players before the draft in three weeks?I assume I know the answer (no), but could a team acquire someone like Jax in a trade next week and put him on their 40-man, thus, protecting him from the draft? 


#34 DocBauer

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Posted 21 November 2019 - 11:46 AM

Especially with Rooker at AAA and then Larnach and Kiriloff at AA, it seems like something will have to give at some point. That's not even to mention the other 4th OF candidates like Cave and Wade.


Agreed. Key point being "at some point". It looks like we have too many guys. But a couple things to consider:

1] Buxton continues to be bit hard by the injury bug. (Hopefully not, obviously) Now we need another OF.

2] Even if Cron is brought back, very good chance he is gone for 2021. This could be Cruz's last year with the Twins. And if Rosario is kept for now, he only has 1 remaining year of arbitration and could be dealt with a younger, less expensive player taking his spot.

So we may not be as crowded as it first appears. And if everyone makes it, there us remaining trade value.
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#35 jkcarew

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Posted 21 November 2019 - 11:52 AM

I'd guess Rijo has more future value than Raley? But you think you can sneak Rijo through, while you don't think you can sneak Raley through just based on age and stage of development. Problem is, I'm not sure why you care that much if Raley is claimed. I guess if you think he has non-zero trade value. I would have gone the other way. It's seems that teams will be more willing to reach for a guy like Rijo with the extra roster spot.

 

Like protecting Blankenhorn. Infield corner bat with pop...not something we have a ton of in the system. Doesn't bother me that Jax wasn't protected. I'd guess he get's claimed, but wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't, either.

 

Can't imagine anyone taking Javier. K'd in 34% of PA at low A last year at age 20. I guess we'll see how far teams will go in this age of tanking.


#36 Mike Sixel

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Posted 21 November 2019 - 12:43 PM

The Sloth
1:43 Any surprises among those left exposed to the Rule 5 Draft?
Keith Law
1:43 No, not really. The rule 5 draft is a huge waste of time.

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It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#37 Mike Sixel

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Posted 21 November 2019 - 01:01 PM

Sean
2:01 with jhoan duran added to the 40 man so you think he gets a crack in the majors in 2020?
Keith Law
2:01 Yes, in some role.

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It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#38 mikelink45

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Posted 21 November 2019 - 01:16 PM

Celestino is the one I am least surprised by.He is the eventual insurance for Buxton.We need CF players more than corner fielders.I do not see Raley prospering here, but he could be part of a trade package.If they thought he was going to be taken they would know that there is a potential market that they can exploit. 

 

Duran and Celestino are the only two I would truly want to protect, but I would expect there are other considerations for protecting them.

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#39 Seth Stohs

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Posted 21 November 2019 - 02:03 PM

 

Got a couple questions, Seth, and thought I would ask about your opinion to them. 

 

The Twins weren't able to find a spot to protect Anderson last year and he was traded.Was that done prior to the final date to be added to the 40-man (yesterday) or was it between then and the draft?Based on your experience, is it likely the Twins could pull off a trade for one of these players before the draft in three weeks?I assume I know the answer (no), but could a team acquire someone like Jax in a trade next week and put him on their 40-man, thus, protecting him from the draft? 

 

Anderson was traded before the deadline. In fact, I think it was announced with the additions.The reason was so that the Marlins could add him to their 40-man roster.

 

The Twins could try to trade a non-added player. Let's use Jax as the example, and I think you may have answered your own question. Those guys can't be added to the 40-man now, so the acquiring team would then risk them being taken. 

 

It's the same reason that teams generally try to not announce their minor league signings until after the Rule 5, so they don't have to risk losing them. You may recall that one year the Twins signed RA Dickey to a minor league deal, then a week later the Mariners Rule 5d him. 

 

Likewise, a guy like Jax's value does go back up immediately after the Rule 5 draft, if he isn't selected because now the team has a year to determine if they would want to add him... but that is also true for the Twins. 

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#40 Seth Stohs

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Posted 21 November 2019 - 02:09 PM

 

The Sloth
1:43 Any surprises among those left exposed to the Rule 5 Draft?
Keith Law
1:43 No, not really. The rule 5 draft is a huge waste of time.

 

I think we've learned that over time, especially since they altered the rules of eligibility 7-8 years ago... We do spend a lot of time thinking about it and generally about 15 guys get taken and about 8 of them go back to their original team (made-up numbers, not researched, but just approximating). 

 

The other way to look at it is that teams generally do a pretty good job of evaluating their own players and protect the right people, even if "we" sometimes worry. 

 

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