To look at John's numbers and where the under comes in -
+18M for Odo
Well, this happened. Durable but not really an innings eater.
+ 20M for another top five pitcher (assuming it won't be Strassburg or Cole)
+10M for yet another starting pitcher
30m for two pitchers. I don't think that happens at all. Basically, I think we'll spend about 15m on two more pitchers in the Ivan Nova or Drew Pomeranz bucket. Nova was a surprisingly effective starter in Chicago last year. 2 WAR and nearly 200 innings. Can't strike anyone out. And Pomeranz can do the starter/bullpen shuffle if need be and is a year removed from a 4 WAR season in Boston. I think we 'll be linked to guys like Wheeler, Kuechel and Ryu and what not but end up in the lower bins hoping for some upside. It worked with Pineda. And Pomeranz and Nova are better than Perez.
+15M for some other players: Cron, a backup catcher, maybe a reliever
Maybe about this on Cron, Castro replacement and some bullpen arms but I'd bet this bucket is closer to 10m.
So I think our payroll will be in the 110-115m range rather than the 130m range. We might also see some extensions - presumably Berrios but maybe Odorizzi as well - before spring training. I could see us adding some big pen arms - Chris Martin? Steve Chisek? - and trying to adopt a Rays strategy as well.