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Front Page: Eddie Rosario's Actual Value Is an Offseason Sticking Point

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#21 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 15 November 2019 - 12:28 PM

 

Objective, evidenced analysis = "attacking." ok

 

Whenever I read an article on Eddie citing object evidence, they go straight to defensive metrics which are (to be honest) questionable in nature. 

 

I think Eddie is a year to year guy, in large part b/c of the talent waiting in the wings. I also don't see a scenario where he brings back pitching. 

 

But setting this aside, Eddie is a guy I could see having a monster 2020 if he stays healthy. 

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#22 Bomba2026

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Posted 15 November 2019 - 12:31 PM

Stats aside, Eddie made the ESPN hilites reel for fielding....and The fans like him. I think this year will be great. I like watching him play and he has a good attitude in the dugout...geez at my job, he'd be management material!
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#23 Kelly Vance

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Posted 15 November 2019 - 12:34 PM

I'm reminded of a Charlie Brown quote "Lucy tell your statistics to shut up."

Statistics can be made to lie. And not all statistics matter the same.

 

Case in point, OBP. You want your lead off hitter and number 2 hitter to be high OBP guys. They are table setters.Not so much for a cleanup hitter. Those guys hit 4 not to get on base, but to drive in those runners ahead of them.That's why we call the #4 hitter the "clean up" hitter. He cleans up the base runners and drives them in.Eddie does that extremely well, hence the 109 RBIs, hence the MVP consideration. The game is still about scoring more runs that the opponent.And here is where Eddie is most valuable.

 

I don't understand the Eddie hate. He makes mistakes.So do we.He plays hurt. A lot of us wouldn't. 

Those of us who played with bad ankles or a hammy pull know it affects your play. A lot. 

 

And I give an eye roll every time I read, "I am an Eddie fan" just before the writer lobs criticisms at our left fielder. Letme say it here."I am an Eddie fan."I'll take the bad with the good any day. I don't get my kicks criticizing guys who play hurt, especially when they deliver anyway. 

 

Eddie pretty much is the reason we got off to a good start this year. He fairly carried the team early. He had like 15 homers by the fifth inning. OK, not quite. But you get my point.We got off to a great start and he was a big reason why. 

 

Eddie is not a matrix player. He has flashes of brilliance and makes plays nobody else on the roster could. Certainly I don't see Cave, Kiri, Larnach or Rooker throwing a runner out like Eddie does.And while Kiiri mighthit well in the bigs, that remains to be seen. So for me, I am glad to see Rocco write Eddie in at the cleanup spot.Cruz gets better pitches too because he is there.That doesn't show  

up in your matrix either. It shows up in the heads of opposing pitchers and managers.

 

So when I hear that Eddie gets votes for MVP.I just say, "Im a big fan. Of course he does." 

 

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#24 Nick Nelson

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Posted 15 November 2019 - 12:52 PM

Where is this "Eddie was playing hurt" narrative coming from? Honest question. I can almost guarantee that several players on the team (including Kepler) were playing through more significant health impediments for long portions of the season.

 

My frustration with Rosario is that his plate approach has completely devolved. When at his best he had developed a semblance of patience, but it disappeared entirely over the course of this season (see Cooper's article for specifics). That seems very willful to me, like overconfidence is getting the best of him. 

 

Talk about leadership all you want but when I watched an inning where Kepler, Polanco and Cruz built a rally by grinding out tough at-bats, only to watch Rosario pop out on the first pitch at his ankles, that was frustrating. That's not leadership in any form. It's bad baseball. And it's the kind of thing that happened often. 

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#25 srlarson

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Posted 15 November 2019 - 01:01 PM

I really like Eddie...would be happy to see him signed here....but also understand the roster and who is coming up......and if you want additional pitching and can't get in FA then you have to trade something of value to get value....so if Eddie is it we can say thanks and good luck!  

 

But they will need to find his replacement for Energy...and it was proven that Caveisn't an everyday player so planning on him is a HUGE mistake.....better to bring up the kids.....


#26 Sam Morley

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Posted 15 November 2019 - 01:30 PM

RBIs count. 

 

They are, as is every statistic, opportunistic. 

 

Aside from the rare bases loaded walk/HBP, you can't get RBIs unless you swing the bat.

 

Kepler, Polanco, and Cruz, often hit in front of Rosario, and often in that order. They all have good OBP, all higher than Rosario's. Scenario: Kepler draws a walk to lead off. Polanco hits a weak ground ball, getting thrown out but advancing Kepler to second. Cruz strikes out. Rosario hits a single. Kepler scores. Sano Strikes out. Inning over, RUN SCORED. Flip Kepler and Rosario- same scenario, same individual production for each player. Rosario singles, advances on Polonco's out. Cruz Ks. Kepler walks. Sano Ks. Inning over, NO RUN SCORED. 

 

It's just one scenario, right. But it exemplifies the value of the single in comparison to the walk depending on lineup construction. The best a walk can be is equal to a single, but often, a single is far greater than a walk. Kepler's walk total is comparable to Rosario's singles total. If Rosario traded 20 of his singles for 30 walks, it would be a significant bump to his OBP, but his RBI total goes down, probably under 100. 

 

Taking a walk when given it, and having a measured, consistent approach to batting are valuable to a team's success, undoubtedly. These are not a part of Rosario's game. Everyone crushed Mauer, wrongly, for the duration of his career for being one of the best ever at practicing such an approach. He got crushed for not being willing to guess or expand or surprise. Mauer is an all-time Twins great, but he wasn't willing (in his approach to batting) to take a risk or a chance to be a hero. He wasn't willing to gamble on his own natural ability as a hitter in favor of doing the right thing as a batter. I'm a fan of Joe. I loved watching him play. I wish he was in the dugout/on the field for the 2019 run. But, there were many times when I was ready to lose my mind watching Joe take a walk with a runner on when we needed an RBI. And that doesn't mean he was wrong. It does mean I'm happy to have Eddie up there going after that RBI, even when he ends up looking like a fool.

 

It's pretty hard to strike a balance between patience and aggression. I mean, they are pretty antonymous. Most guys are going to sacrifice a fair bit of one for the other. The guys that have it balanced, the best of both, are Mike Trout. So if Rosario could add 20 walks to his 2019 total, without losing any singles, he'd be even higher on that list of MVP candidates, he'd be a lot closer to Mike Trout. 

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#27 rdehring

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Posted 15 November 2019 - 01:39 PM

 

I am a big fan of analytical analysis for players. It helps quantify areas that are difficult to truly understand for purposes of comparative analysis. I run a law firm and we use advanced analytics as a management tool.

 

The problem comes when the analytics are considered "the answer" rather than a tool to help you get to the answer along with other tools. Data analysis does NOT give you the answer; it helps you understand some of the factors you should consider when trying to get to the answer. Over-reliance on data is simply poor management when it involves human beings. 

 

I feel like we're overdoing it with the analytical analysis of Rosario. You're right - His OBP is too low, he swings at too many pitches outside of the zone, and he had a tough year in the OF. He's also a good clutch hitter,shows up to play every day even when nicked up (unlike his OF mates), and seems to genuinely care about the team, his teammates, and winning.He did have a good year in the "counting statistics" which you guys seem to want tosay isn't important for some reason. As an aside, it do find it interesting that the advanced analytics folks (by the way, are we sure they are "advanced" as in superior or just different?) have this superiority complex as compared to the counting stats folks. Seems like both are important. Rosario is a leader on the team and having him has made the Twins better and more successful over the last 3 years.Rosario isn't the reason we've stunk up the playoffs - the starting pitching is the reason. 

 

Does Rosario need to get better? Absolutely. By the way, so do Kepler, Buxton, Polanco, etc. - pretty much everybody on the team except maybe Cruz and Garver who we hope just stay the same.Should we trade him if we can get a #1 or #2 starter in return? Also absolutely, but seems unlikely. Is there a ready replacement in the organization or as a likely FA? Absolutely not. Should we trade him just because we think we can get a decent package for him and he doesn't look great under advanced analytics?Why on earth would we do that? 

 

I know its hard to find topics at this time of year and I think a hard look at all of the Twins is in order. Still guys, the Rosario bashing seems a little over the top. Maybe he got MVP votes because the writers who know the game better than we do see the intangibles better than we do. Maybe he's better than we think. 

What a great view of how we are looking at Rosario.The only point you and others hit on that I question is the growing perception that Kepler didn't play when banged up.That is far from what I recall from last year.I remember him running into the wall, I believe against the Angels, and continuing to play much of the rest of the season on a gimpy knee.Yes, he developed an injury in his chest area late in the year that put him on the shelf for a few weeks.But he also played with that injury both before resting and throughout the play offs.  

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#28 birdwatcher

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Posted 15 November 2019 - 01:50 PM

I don't need the old arithmetic OR the new arithmetic to see what's awry with both sides of this polarizing argument about Rosario's relative value.

 

Looking at his season OBP distorts his value, I think. The counting stats probably do too. The guy's hyper-streaky. I think guys like him have to be viewed from a slightly different vantage point that the stats betray.

 

Backing up, some players can adapt, can be coached, to reduce factors causing those periods of time when they are simply awful. Some players improve their consistency, perhaps even increase how often they get hot and carry the team. I wonder if the Twins think he might be one of those players. Or not.

 

When an inconsistent, too-often erratic player is surrounded by production from others, those frustrating periods when the player looks so miserably inept aren't the cause of as many lost opportunities. Did Rosario's outfield play seem better when Buxton was in center? That's my perception at least. If he was surrounded in the lineup by bad players rather than great ones, he'd be much more problematic.

 

Personally, I'm inclined to discount his full-season numbers. I love watching this guy play baseball when he's at the top of his game. I'd hope the field people have a plan they've shared with Rosario about the value for him of working on reducing the causes (mostly emotional/mental?) of those bad periods.

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#29 Kelly Vance

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Posted 15 November 2019 - 01:52 PM

 

Where is this "Eddie was playing hurt" narrative coming from? Honest question. I can almost guarantee that several players on the team (including Kepler) were playing through more significant health impediments for long portions of the season.

 

My frustration with Rosario is that his plate approach has completely devolved. When at his best he had developed a semblance of patience, but it disappeared entirely over the course of this season (see Cooper's article for specifics). That seems very willful to me, like overconfidence is getting the best of him. 

 

Talk about leadership all you want but when I watched an inning where Kepler, Polanco and Cruz built a rally by grinding out tough at-bats, only to watch Rosario pop out on the first pitch at his ankles, that was frustrating. That's not leadership in any form. It's bad baseball. And it's the kind of thing that happened often. 

THERE YOU GO AGAIN.

 

If you watched the games then you saw Eddie sprained his ankle coming around first base and was out for a couple of weeks, then returned with a still gimpy ankle that never fully healed. 

 

Guys playing hurt try to overcome the broken toe, or sprained ankle or wrist. But it affects their swings mechanically..I think Rosie tried to compensate, just like Buck did with his broken toe in 2018.Their swings suffered. But when that happens you don't just ditch em anymore than you dump your wife for burning your bacon. They either can play through it or they gotta sit until it heals.I, for one, give Buck and Rosie credit for trying.

 

Your "frustration" is subjective and immaterial to the team.Eddie plays for Rocco and the coaches. Eddie does not play for you. Your expectations aside, Eddie brings a lot to the table.He is a low ball, first ball hitter. If you have watched him these past several years you would know that.He is not a plink hitter like Luis, and he does not work the count. He looks for a pitch he thinks he can clock and swings away.Kirby was like that. These guys hit with confidence. All great hitters do.  

 

As for leadership, I'm sorry. You don't know. You just don't. None of us do.But when the camera shows a shot of the bench, Rosie is often in the thick of it. He fits in and guys that hit #4 are usually considered leaders because they drive in runs and lead the offense.  

 

I consider some of the criticism of Rosie to be fair, but much isn't.He is not your type of player, fine. Thatdoesn't make him bad. He is an instinctive type of player with tendencies to be streaky. His play comes more from instincts than any othersingle factor. I've had guys like him on teams I coached.What theyneed, more than any other thing, is reps.Extra BP. Get him in his groove and watch him go off.

 

Rosie is my favorite Twin preciselybecause he has sand. Like many of you I wish he would be a more selective hitter. But that's just not his style. And it wasn't Kirby's style, either. Yet Kirby is revered and Rosie is maligned.So I defend Rosie.He is a special player. 

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#30 Mike Sixel

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Posted 15 November 2019 - 02:05 PM

 

THERE YOU GO AGAIN.

 

If you watched the games then you saw Eddie sprained his ankle coming around first base and was out for a couple of weeks, then returned with a still gimpy ankle. 

 

Your "frustration" is subjective and immaterial to the team.Eddie plays for Rocco and the coaches. Eddie does not play for you. Your expectations aside, Eddie brings a lot to the table.He is a low ball, first ball hitter. If you have watched him these past several years you would know that.He is not a plink hitter like Luis, and he does not work the count. He looks for a pitch he thinks he can clock and swings away.Kirby was like that. These guys hit with confidence. All great hitters do.  

 

As for leadership, I'm sorry. You don't know. You just don't.

 

 

 

You don't know about his leadership either. But where was his leadership in 2018, when they were bad? I mean, if it was part of the 2019 success, it must be part of the 2018 lack of success, right? Or maybe 2019 was better because of the on field talent?

 

No one, not in one of the posts on Eddie Rosario, has used the word hate, other than the people saying he is under rated. Not one person has claimed to hate him. Not one person has said he's a BAD baseball player. 

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It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#31 Dman

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Posted 15 November 2019 - 02:21 PM

 

 

 

It's amazing to me that people can read a detailed, evidenced article like this that opens with a genuine series of compliments about the player, and reduce it to "Rosario bashing." Why are people so sensitive about him??

 

I think it has to do with his ability to be aggressive in big moments and make something happen, whether that be running through a stop sign to score, Making an incredible throw to home that won a game, or coming up with big home runs.A risk taker by nature Rosario is not afraid to fail, in fact he is prone to be even more aggressive when something needs to happen.  

 

That being said it also backfires on him as well.Running through stop signs to create outs, missing the cut off man allowing runners to move up, and striking out by swinging at balls out of the zone in big moments when getting on base via walk would have helped hurt the team as well.

 

I guess it depends on what you want to see.The player that is clutch in some situations or the player who produces more outs than he should. The aggregate when added up though points to the WAR he received and thus his perceived value by the important decision makers in baseball (GM's).If he can change a couple of things I still think he could be an all star caliber player but he just wants to swing and his defense isn't exactly elite so if he stays who he is I think we can find better options for that spot.

 

I still think the Twins keep him this coming year, but if wants to stay beyond that his OBP has to change and his defense needs to improve.There are three or four guys in our system that could be ready to take that spot if he doesn't improve.

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#32 gunnarthor

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Posted 15 November 2019 - 02:54 PM

 

Objective, evidenced analysis = "attacking." ok

It's pretty sad you think that was objective and evidenced. 

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#33 Kelly Vance

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Posted 15 November 2019 - 03:09 PM

 

You don't know about his leadership either. But where was his leadership in 2018, when they were bad? I mean, if it was part of the 2019 success, it must be part of the 2018 lack of success, right? Or maybe 2019 was better because of the on field talent?

 

No one, not in one of the posts on Eddie Rosario, has used the word hate, other than the people saying he is under rated. Not one person has claimed to hate him. Not one person has said he's a BAD baseball player. 

How do you know that if not for his leadership in 2018 they would have been worse?  And they were playing without 2 of our best players, Buck and Sano. But I am not the one criticizing him. I'm just the one calling BS when I see it.

 

I am not the only one to notice that there have been a lot of unfair critics of Eddie this year. I am not the one that mentioned hate.  Others noticed it and commented. I simply agree. 

 

 

 

 

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#34 Major League Ready

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Posted 15 November 2019 - 03:33 PM

 

THERE YOU GO AGAIN.

 

 

Rosie is my favorite Twin preciselybecause he has sand. Like many of you I wish he would be a more selective hitter. But that's just not his style. And it wasn't Kirby's style, either. Yet Kirby is revered and Rosie is maligned.So I defend Rosie.He is a special player. 

 

Kirby was the model of consistency. He averaged 4.25 bWAR for 12 seasons. He had 2 seasons over 7 bWAR. Rosario has 10.3 bWAR over 5 season for an average of 2.06. Rosario has only had 1 season where he exceeded 3 bWAR and that was 2018 when he produced that WAR in the 1st half of the season. Since then, he has barley been above replacement value. Sure, stats don't tell everything but don't compare Rosario has not earned the right to be compared to Puckett. I will be just fine watching Rosario play with no discipline when he can produce like Kirby while doing so.

Edited by Major League Ready, 15 November 2019 - 03:34 PM.

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#35 Dantes929

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Posted 15 November 2019 - 04:36 PM

 

 Seems like both are important. Rosario is a leader on the team and having him has made the Twins better and more successful over the last 3 years.Rosario isn't the reason we've stunk up the playoffs - the starting pitching is the reason. 

 

 

 

 

I'll take some issue with that. Berrios gave up 1 earned run in 4 innings.The pen gave up 7 in the next 3 innings. Dobnak gave up 1 run and left with bases loaded and the pen let in those three along with 4 more.Odorizzi gave up 2 earned runs only because of bad defense in 5 innings.Relievers gave up 3 more is the next 4 innings. Within these stories are more stories. Berrios should have been out of an inning but Cron dropped a DP ball.Relievers might have been a different story if Littell just did what he did all season.Lets not forget that the offense missed many opportunities and averaged 2 runs a game.Starting rotation wasn't great but relievers, defense and offense were just as much if not more to blame.

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#36 h2oface

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Posted 15 November 2019 - 05:05 PM

 

I've said it before, and I'll say it again. Eddie is exactly the kind of player to go to arbitration with every year until he is either injured or a free agent. Both sides present honest arguments as politely as they can, and when the arbiter decides, you shake hands, smile, and try to be the first one to grab the check and pay for dinner.

 

Whatever that salary number is this year, the Twins can afford it. And whatever Eddie provides in value in 2020, it will almost assuredly be more than you'd get from 145 games of Wade or Cave (and also more than what you'd get from 145 games of any of the prospects).

 

I like Eddie. I like Twins that were Twins from the farm from the beginning and make it to the show succeed, especially with great aplomb. I also will always give credit to RBI. Sure, hitting 4th and coming to bat with people on base have a lot to do with it, but you still have to rise to the moment and drive them in. I also embrace advanced stats, and they don't lie. If our guys, including Nick, see the limitations of his play, so will any team that would trade for him. I also think it is folly to think that national sports writers have a better take on his play than those that see it daily. No way. We see all the warts, and even probably dwell on them to a fault at times, more than we should, and lose site of many of the players positives. (Just visit a game thread on this site, daily!) All this talk could very well be noticed by Rosario, and he could have the best year of his life this coming season, the best focus of his career, and harness the plate awareness he has not embraced, and be more valuable than ever. 

 

I definitely don't trade him right now, unless the return is crazy good. Crazy good. The prospects could pass him, and could be one injury away from the opportunity to be the guy you can no longer not play everyday, ala Arraez. But for this year, until something like that happens, keep Eddie and hope he wakes up, focuses, and has the best year of his career, offensively and defensively.  

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#37 Kelly Vance

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Posted 15 November 2019 - 05:24 PM

 

Kirby was the model of consistency. He averaged 4.25 bWAR for 12 seasons. He had 2 seasons over 7 bWAR. Rosario has 10.3 bWAR over 5 season for an average of 2.06. Rosario has only had 1 season where he exceeded 3 bWAR and that was 2018 when he produced that WAR in the 1st half of the season. Since then, he has barley been above replacement value. Sure, stats don't tell everything but don't compare Rosario has not earned the right to be compared to Puckett. I will be just fine watching Rosario play with no discipline when he can produce like Kirby while doing so.

So, my point is not that he is an equal to HOFer Kirby Puckett.

 

I said he is an instinctive player like Kirby was. Remember, Kirby started off as a wild swinging skinny kid that batted lead off. He was known asa bad ball hitter. His pure talent made it work out for him. 

 

My point is that there are certain players that are instinctive players. See the ball, hit the ball.

Rosie is like that. And his success and failures all stem from the kind of player he is. 

 

Whether Rosario finds a way to become truly special or not remains to be seen. His story is still largely unwritten. But its too bad the Yankees have enough outfielders. I'd like to see Rosario play 81 games at Yankee Stadium. 

 


#38 ewen21

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Posted 15 November 2019 - 05:27 PM

 

 

 

My frustration with Rosario is that his plate approach has completely devolved. When at his best he had developed a semblance of patience, but it disappeared entirely over the course of this season (see Cooper's article for specifics). That seems very willful to me, like overconfidence is getting the best of him. 

 

 

This right here. I recall an at bat during the playoffs and we got two runners on with none out in a tight game.Eddie came up, swing at the first pitch (which was well out of the strike zone) and he popped out.Totally took the wind of the sails.

 

So yeah.He deserves criticism

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#39 Nick Nelson

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Posted 15 November 2019 - 05:45 PM

 

It's pretty sad you think that was objective and evidenced. 

How bout pointing out what you felt was so unfair of off-base in the analysis? The harshest things I said here were that he had a "complicated" and "very ordinary season."

WHOA, BRING OUT THE PITCHFORKS! 


#40 Nick Nelson

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Posted 15 November 2019 - 05:55 PM

 

Your "frustration" is subjective and immaterial to the team.Eddie plays for Rocco and the coaches. Eddie does not play for you. Your expectations aside, Eddie brings a lot to the table.He is a low ball, first ball hitter. If you have watched him these past several years you would know that.He is not a plink hitter like Luis, and he does not work the count. He looks for a pitch he thinks he can clock and swings away.Kirby was like that. These guys hit with confidence. All great hitters do.  

I never said he didn't bring a lot to the table. In fact, I made sure to start off the article by pointing out that he does.

 

You can say my opinion is subjective and immaterial, that's fine. But what I'm trying to get across here is that the Twins' front office, and others across the league, are likely to share it. Do you disagree?  

 

To invoke the reference from the article, all these things being said here about Rosario can also be said about Jose Abreu -- to a greater extent, in fact -- and there's a reason he elected not to test the open market at a seemingly prime opportunity.

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