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Front Page: Offseason Blueprint: Hooking a Big Fish

minnesota twins anthony rendon zack wheeler sergio romo jon gray
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#21 Ted Schwerzler

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Posted 13 November 2019 - 01:43 PM

 

Trades
Eddie Rosario & Brent Rooker for Nomar Mazara & Mike Minor
Balazovic or Graterol, Nick Gordon & Jhoan Duran for Sonny Gray

 

Mike Minor is a rental and had a strong year as a SP with a lackluster FIP.

 

Not sure why the Reds would move Gray after just acquiring him, and pairing Bauer in the rotation.

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#22 Ted Schwerzler

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Posted 13 November 2019 - 01:46 PM

 

Also, Gordon doesn't make us better in left field. Although, if Rosario helped return Jon Gray, it would probably be a net win. Gordon is most decidedly NOT an above-average fielder at this point. His most recent GG was won, as they often are, by reputation alone...and would probably be exhibit A in how meaningless that award is. He's a 36-year old outfielder...that can't hit. 

As a massive proponent of Gold Gloves being a farce (and Gordon didn't deserve his this year over Brantley) the characterization here is incorrect. I definitely made sure to double check before offering that. He was worth 1 DRS and 3.2 UZR. That's above average. He was at 13 DRS last year. Eddie Rosario was an abomination statistically in 2019.

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#23 Battle ur tail off

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Posted 13 November 2019 - 01:54 PM

 

. An interesting plan, for sure, but Rendon is almost surely looking elsewhere.

 

False. 100%. If the Twins offer up the highest bid, he would be here. Some of you guys need to quit that line of thinking. The reason we haven't gotten these types of guys in the past has nothing to do with where we are located. It had to do with us being a ways off the top bid that those types signed for. 

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#24 Thrylos

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Posted 13 November 2019 - 03:16 PM

I would not move Duran for 2 years of Jeff Grey.I think that Duran might compete for a spot on the Twins' rotation some time next season and will likely be better than Berrios his next 6 seasons of control.The Twins need to use their excess of OF prospects for a trade.If anyone would take Buxton for a pitcher like Grey, I'd do that again.Wheeler and Gray can slot nicely and numbers 1 and 2 on the Twins' rotation.

 

Cron was on the top 5 of the league on xwOBA-wOBA so he is due for a rebound with the bat, esp. if the wrist is healed, and his defense at 1B is above average.It is not broke...

 

 

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#25 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 13 November 2019 - 03:34 PM

 

I would not move Duran for 2 years of Jeff Grey.I think that Duran might compete for a spot on the Twins' rotation some time next season and will likely be better than Berrios his next 6 seasons of control.The Twins need to use their excess of OF prospects for a trade.If anyone would take Buxton for a pitcher like Grey, I'd do that again.Wheeler and Gray can slot nicely and numbers 1 and 2 on the Twins' rotation.

 

Cron was on the top 5 of the league on xwOBA-wOBA so he is due for a rebound with the bat, esp. if the wrist is healed, and his defense at 1B is above average.It is not broke...

yeah, I like the idea of spending big, but this is creative for the sake of creative and I think if they will spend money, it would be wiser to go get pitching instead of another bat. 


#26 Mike Sixel

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Posted 13 November 2019 - 05:40 PM

 

I would not move Duran for 2 years of Jeff Grey.I think that Duran might compete for a spot on the Twins' rotation some time next season and will likely be better than Berrios his next 6 seasons of control.The Twins need to use their excess of OF prospects for a trade.If anyone would take Buxton for a pitcher like Grey, I'd do that again.Wheeler and Gray can slot nicely and numbers 1 and 2 on the Twins' rotation.

 

Cron was on the top 5 of the league on xwOBA-wOBA so he is due for a rebound with the bat, esp. if the wrist is healed, and his defense at 1B is above average.It is not broke...

 

You think it is LIKELY that a minor league pitcher will be better than Berrios? I don't even know how to respond to that.

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It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#27 Aerodeliria

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Posted 13 November 2019 - 05:54 PM

I agree on every point, except the Gray play. I'd rather offer two prospects with potential who are not named Duran.

BTW, I got the chance to see Rooker play when Team USA took on Japan. He seemed to the only guy on Team USA raking. (He was hitting .500 as of yesterday with two blasts; granted, it was a tiny sample.) He looked very poised at the plate and got two singles against Japan. He also didn't botch any plays in the OF, which could not be said for the other OFs.

Japan has put a very formidable team on the field, including pitching, so it was good to see Rooker hitting and fielding. I can't see why he wouldn't stick at the MLB level after watching him play two days ago.

Cave, Wade, Rooker, Kepler, Buxton (for a few games), Gonzales in the OF. If we could get solid pitching by offering Rosario, I would do it. (Please note the lack of the word 'hate' in my post.)

Edited by Aerodeliria, 13 November 2019 - 05:59 PM.

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#28 ChiefsKid

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Posted 13 November 2019 - 05:57 PM

Mike Minor is a rental and had a strong year as a SP with a lackluster FIP.
 
Not sure why the Reds would move Gray after just acquiring him, and pairing Bauer in the rotation.


Minor is exactly what the Twins need (and recently have sought). High upside, low risk. No commitment to salary beyond 2020.

And the Reds *could* be motivated to move Gray because they are probably 2 years from competing anyway and they would get a pretty big haul.

Quality, talented pitching costs a ton of money. This gets two guys who come at a significant "discount". I'm absolutely sick and tired of watching prospect class after prospect class fizzle and everyone knows we won't be competing with the big boys when it comes to spending.
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#29 Mike Sixel

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Posted 13 November 2019 - 06:08 PM

 

Minor is exactly what the Twins need (and recently have sought). High upside, low risk. No commitment to salary beyond 2020. And the Reds *could* be motivated to move Gray because they are probably 2 years from competing anyway and they would get a pretty big haul. Quality, talented pitching costs a ton of money. This gets two guys who come at a significant "discount". I'm absolutely sick and tired of watching prospect class after prospect class fizzle and everyone knows we won't be competing with the big boys when it comes to spending.

 

Not committing to the future is how you need four new starting pitchers going into a new year....they don't need more of that.

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#30 ChiefsKid

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Posted 13 November 2019 - 06:29 PM

Not committing to the future is how you need four new starting pitchers going into a new year....they don't need more of that.


More of what? Payroll flexibility? High upside, low risk, affordable players?

The Twins will never spend enough to reel in the big fish.
Smart, savvy, affordable, high upside players (and a lot of them) with hopefully a few prospects that flourish at the right time is gonna be the key to serious contention, in my opinion. That *is* the future for the Twins. Getting locked into long term contracts is a death sentence for small market teams.

Minor is one example. Sonny Gray is another. It would take a good prospect haul, but he's financially affordable. Both have tremendous upsides and well within the Twins price range.
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#31 Mike Sixel

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Posted 13 November 2019 - 06:45 PM

 

More of what? Payroll flexibility? High upside, low risk, affordable players?

The Twins will never spend enough to reel in the big fish.
Smart, savvy, affordable, high upside players (and a lot of them) with hopefully a few prospects that flourish at the right time is gonna be the key to serious contention, in my opinion. That *is* the future for the Twins. Getting locked into long term contracts is a death sentence for small market teams.

Minor is one example. Sonny Gray is another. It would take a good prospect haul, but he's financially affordable. Both have tremendous upsides and well within the Twins price range.

 

It's hard to argue they need payroll flexibility in the same post you argue they shouldn't sign players to long term deals.....what good is payroll flexibility if you won't use it?

 

How do you propose they fill four-seven rotation spots this off season, without spending money (and still be a great team)?

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#32 ChiefsKid

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Posted 13 November 2019 - 06:59 PM

It's hard to argue they need payroll flexibility in the same post you argue they shouldn't sign players to long term deals.....what good is payroll flexibility if you won't use it?
 
How do you propose they fill four-seven rotation spots this off season, without spending money (and still be a great team)?


I already proposed it. Sign Bumgarner and Odorizzi and trade for Mike Minor and Sonny Gray. All but the Minor acquisition solidifies the rotation for 3+ years.

I never said don't use the payroll flexibility. Quite the contrary. Go spend it. I'm simply suggesting a means to acquire higher upside pitching talent without spending a lot of money or committing to a long term contract, which I think the Twins absolutely need to do in order to fill out a 26 man roster.
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#33 Major League Ready

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Posted 13 November 2019 - 09:43 PM

 

Not committing to the future is how you need four new starting pitchers going into a new year....they don't need more of that.

 

As you have noted since the season ended, the Twins have 4 spots to fill in the rotation and there are numerous teams looking for starting pitching. Many of them with more revenue than the Twins. The difficulty of filling all those spots in a single year has been pointed out by several people here. Adding a solid SP on a 1 year deal has no down side. Put together the best possible team for 2020 and address one spot (hopefully) in the rotation next year.

 

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#34 John Bonnes

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Posted 14 November 2019 - 07:30 AM

1) Roy Smalley recently talked about he would want to go out and get Rendon, too, only he would trade Sano. I like the idea of keeping Sano more. So I thought about it, and .... nah. If I'm going to go all in on a position player like that, he has to hit left-handed. I want that #4 guy to plug between Cruz and Sano next year. (Rendon would obviously make more sense in 2021, when Cruz is likely gone.)

 

2) Another blueprint with Gray. He's getting pretty popular around here. 

 

3) The estimates we put in the Handbook are crowdsourced among the authors but it's several weeks before other published estimates. Every year we look back at them and see how we did. There are always a few surprises, and it's very common we're off by a million or two per year for players. That can be a problem with several in a row are low, and when the payroll goes up to $140+. So yes, this seems a little overpacked with talent, identifying some of the ones that seem a little low now. 

 

Currently the one I'm least comfortable with is Odo at 3/36. I'd have been a lot more comfortable with 3/39 or 3/42. But that draft pick could weigh it down to our estimate. 


#35 nicksaviking

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Posted 14 November 2019 - 08:33 AM

 

This is a very well thought out plan, couple nitpics:

I think your dollars are light everywhere, except Rendon. Pomeranz will get double that, for example.

Way light on the Gray trade, as well. Rosario just doesnt have much trade value.

I want no part of Romo. His smoke and mirrors were fantastic this season, but smoke and mirrors never last.

I think Alex Gordon already stated he will only play for the Royals, didn't he?

 

I agree the dollars are light on the pitchers. And in fact with Pomeranz, I'd want him with an option year if not at least a 2nd guaranteed year, I think as a full time reliever he's going to be very good and expensive if he's a free agent again this time next year. 

 

I also previously thought Rosario wouldn't have a ton of trade value, but I now see MLBTR is predicting $15M/year 3 and 4 year deals for Nick Castellanos and Marcell Ozuna. I tend to think MLBTR is way off, but if they're not, Rosario probably actually does have quite a bit of value. Though I'd think the Twins might still have to chip in at least a 3rd piece to get Gray.

 

Romo didn't excite me at the deadline, but his smoke and mirrors has lasted for a long time. They can bring him back if they want. If they don't, that'd be fine too.


#36 nicksaviking

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Posted 14 November 2019 - 08:36 AM

 

False. 100%. If the Twins offer up the highest bid, he would be here. Some of you guys need to quit that line of thinking. The reason we haven't gotten these types of guys in the past has nothing to do with where we are located. It had to do with us being a ways off the top bid that those types signed for. 

 

I'll accept that many players will take the highest dollar amount, if you accept that not every player is the staunch capitalist that you make them out to be.

 

We don't know the motivations of every player and we never will, but we do know that they're all different humans and humans don't all operate the same way.

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#37 Thrylos

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Posted 14 November 2019 - 09:32 AM

 

You think it is LIKELY that a minor league pitcher will be better than Berrios? I don't even know how to respond to that.

I think that Duran's next 6 years (his control time with the Twins) will better than Berrios's next 6.Same way that in the 2016 offseason it could be predicted that Berrios's (who was then a minor leaguer) next 6 years with the Twins would be better than eg. Gibson's (who was then a major leaguer).

 

Duran has higher ceiling than Berrios, IMHO.Simple :)

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#38 Cap'n Piranha

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Posted 14 November 2019 - 10:50 AM

A few things;

  1. Sano and Buxton each accumulated 2.7 WAR last year, placing them 5th and 6th in the lineup.In terms of WAR/150, they're 6th and 4th, respectively.They were key cogs in the Twins success, and most assuredly, not along for the ride.
  2. No way Odo takes a 3/$36M deal.He can get basically half of that just this year with the QO, so taking that deal implies Odorizzi's camp thinks he would not be able to get a 2 year contract for $9M/year after 2020, when he woudl have no draft pick compensation attached.if the Twins want Odo for the next 3 years, they're going to have to get somewhere in the $42-$45 range.
  3. Alex Gordon makes no sense for this team, whether an outfielder is traded or not.From an offensive standpoint, Buxton and Kepler are better options, as is Rosario (unless you want more OBP in return for a big power drop).Cave and Wade are probably better too; they certainly have more upside.And with Kiriloff and Larnach holding their own at age 21 and 22 in AA, that's 7 options better than Gordon, before even mentioning Gonzalez and Royce Lewis should he be moved to the outfield.If we feel like we need more outfield defense despite having the 2nd best CF and 3rd best RF (according to fangraphs), than just go sign a really fast guy from someone's minor league system.Or alternatively, sign Billy Hamilton who is far superior defensively to Gordon, and would actually steal some bases too.All that being said, outfield is the last place the Twins should be looking to spend time or money this offseason.
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#39 Cap'n Piranha

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Posted 14 November 2019 - 10:57 AM

 

I would not move Duran for 2 years of Jeff Grey.

 

But would you move him for 2 years of Jon Gray?

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#40 Mike Sixel

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Posted 14 November 2019 - 11:20 AM

 

As you have noted since the season ended, the Twins have 4 spots to fill in the rotation and there are numerous teams looking for starting pitching. Many of them with more revenue than the Twins. The difficulty of filling all those spots in a single year has been pointed out by several people here. Adding a solid SP on a 1 year deal has no down side. Put together the best possible team for 2020 and address one spot (hopefully) in the rotation next year.

 

The post I responded to stated one year deals are exactly what the TWins should be doing....not one, one year deal......

 

I have no issue with one, one year deal. I have issues with multiple one year deals. Nothing more or less.

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 




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