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miguel sano max kepler jorge polanco luis arraez mitch garver
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#21 Thrylos

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Posted 12 November 2019 - 11:33 AM

 

 

Miguel Sano
2019 Stats: .247 BA, .319 BBIP, .346 OBP, .923 OPS
Sano struggled through parts of the 2019 campaign, but he seemed to settle into a routine as the season progressed. His batting average on balls in play seems destined for some regression

 

 

a. His 2019 BABIP is 5 point lower than his MLB career average BABIP, which makes any difference insignificant and any regression discussion moot. BABIP for hitters (unlike the pitchers') is individual-dependent and it is supposed to regress towards someone's mean and not towards a league mean.

b. Sano had a career high walk rate, IsoD, and led the league in HR/FB; all 3 have nothing to do with BABIP.

c. Since when .923 OPS is "struggling"?

 

BABIP is not a good measure for an argument here...

 

On the other hand, Buxton with .340 wOBA vs. .309 xwOBA, is a prime candidate for regression, if he stays on the field

 

Edited by Thrylos, 12 November 2019 - 11:34 AM.

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#22 Cap'n Piranha

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Posted 12 November 2019 - 12:41 PM

Arraez is going nowhere.Out of 241 hitters with 350+ PA's, he was 30th lowest in soft contact rate, #1 in opposite field rate, #2 in bb/k, #1 in contact rate, lowest in swinging strike rate, #3 in zone contact rate, and #1 in out of zone contact rate.And all of this in his first ever taste of the bigs, in a season in which he started at AA, and turned 22 after the season started.Barring something shocking happening, Luis will be an elite hitter in the league for at least the next decade.Guys who walk more than they strike out, have elite contact ability, and generally make medium+ contact while being among the handful of youngest players in the league don't regress.They progress.

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#23 rdehring

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Posted 12 November 2019 - 03:32 PM

 

I've got to go with Garver. It was just such a crazy good breakthrough. Plus, he'll face more right-handed pitching, and probably wear down a bit with more games as a catcher. 

 

I'd probably expect some regression from all of the above, which also raises the question: is there one guy of the five ho you think will actually be better this year? 

 

My pick for that would be Sano. Arraez might be second, just because he's still so young. 

Agree with Sano because he should play and entire year and Arraez because he will have some experience.But I really believe that Kepler will be better next year and better yet in years beyond.


#24 h2oface

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Posted 12 November 2019 - 04:47 PM

With all the regression predicted, it seems the FO has no need to spend big on pitching, and the window is already closing fast. Gone are the days that players can get better 2 years in a row. 

 

Time for a rebuild. SELL!!!!!!!


#25 TFRazor

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Posted 13 November 2019 - 01:15 PM

 

I've got to go with Garver. It was just such a crazy good breakthrough. Plus, he'll face more right-handed pitching, and probably wear down a bit with more games as a catcher. 

 

I'd probably expect some regression from all of the above, which also raises the question: is there one guy of the five ho you think will actually be better this year? 

 

My pick for that would be Sano. Arraez might be second, just because he's still so young. 

I think Kepler is in the running for MVP next season


#26 SomeGuy

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Posted 13 November 2019 - 01:33 PM

Nelson Cruz is an easy regression pick for me.Career high in OPS at 39 years old, highest BA since 2010, highest OBP since 2008.


#27 spycake

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Posted 13 November 2019 - 01:46 PM

 

Max Kepler
2019 Stats: .252 BA, .244 BABIP, .336 OBP, .855 OPS
Few Twins fans knew what to expect when Kepler was named the Twins lead-off hitter during spring training. He actually was a bit unlucky when looking at his batting average and his BABIP

Kepler has always had a fairly low BABIP in MLB. It may just be who he is, not unlike Brian Dozier? (Dozier did sneak in one .300 BABIP season, and I suppose if Kepler ever does that with this power, he could be a beast!)

 

FWIW, Steamer projects Kepler to gain back some BABIP (+.026), lose some power (-.037 ISO), and stay roughly as effective at the plate in 2020 (117 wRC+, compared to 2019's 121).


#28 Mike Sixel

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Posted 13 November 2019 - 02:22 PM

Nineteen qualified hitters hit over .300 last year... Expecting Arreaz to do that seems suspect. Could happen, but I'm not sure it is likely.

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 




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