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Front Page: The Twins Shouldn't Give Up on Rosario

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#21 tvagle

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Posted 10 November 2019 - 11:29 AM

 

Eddie led the team in RBI. By one.

 

RBI is an opportunity stat. Here are the Twins' 14 busiest batters in 2019, sorted by number of plate appearances with runners in scoring position (RISP), with runners driven in (RBI-HR) in those instances along with BA and SLG (in other words, ignoring walks since they rarely lead to the RBI we want):

 

173 - Rosario - 71 / .340 / .538

146 - Polanco - 48 / .333 / .561

135 - Cruz - 54 / .368 / .575

121 - Cron - 48 / .299 / .598

116 - Kepler - 44 / .309 / .474

113 - Schoop - 25 / .176 / .422

110 - Sano - 32 / .245 / .649

109 - Gonzalez - 35 / .298 / .447

76 - Buxton - 32 / .282 / .634

71 - Garver - 27 / .344 / .770

63 - Arraez - 21 / .327 / .382

57 -Adrianza - 16 / .295 / .477

53 - Cave - 16 / .244 / .400

50 - Astudillo - 16 / .267 / .311

 

(Just to be clear - credit is given for runners driven in on a HR, just not the batter himself.)

 

Eddie had fine efficiency in driving in runners from second and third, but so did Nelson and Byron (Buxton actually drove in a greater percentage than Rosario) at around the same 40% rate, while Max and Mitch weren't too far behind. Mostly what we are seeing and remembering is opportunity.

That's a lot of numbers for second day of deer camp

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Is it 2020 yet?

#22 Mike Sixel

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Posted 10 November 2019 - 12:12 PM

I think people are confusing ideas here....

The downside of Eddie is that he's getting more expensive, at a position where the minor league system is stacked. A mid market team can't afford Eddie at some point. I don't think this is that year. Also, people seem to not compare him to other corner outfielders.... He's not all that great compared to other corner players.

Over the last 18 months he's been ok compared to other corner outfielders. That's just what the overall offensive numbers show.

That doesn't make him bad. It doesn't mean they need to get rid of him. It means they need the minor league players to step up this year. Because eventually they won't be able to afford him and pitching.
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#23 Crackedfungo

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Posted 10 November 2019 - 12:12 PM

This topic is getting a great deal of responses.The following it TRUE:

 

1)Rosario IS the second player in 20 years to bat over .276 and have 32HRs and 105+ RBI

 

2)Rosario DOES get negatively impacted with defensive stats when Buxton is in the game (it is a by-product of the system)

 

3)You can basically exchange Kepler's walks for more hits for Rosario - which moves base-runners beyond a base?

 

4)NONE of our potential replacements will replace Eddie's offensive statistics in MLB in 2020, 2021, or 2022 - as evidence of this fact - how many times have the prospects even exceeded his 2019 in their minor league career (average, HRs, XBH, RBI, RBI% with RISP)?

 

5)The same armchair GMs that don't want to extend him for a few more years are the same people who wanted to give away Sano as recently as this past May/June

 

In short, it is embarrassing how many erroneous assessments we have seen from this group in 5 that do not own up to it after the fact.....

 

4)The same armchair GMs 

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#24 ashbury

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Posted 10 November 2019 - 12:15 PM

That's a lot of numbers for second day of deer camp

You are kind. You might easily have said that the numbers were clearer than the verbiage. :)

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#25 Mike Sixel

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Posted 10 November 2019 - 12:15 PM

This topic is getting a great deal of responses. The following it TRUE:

1) Rosario IS the second player in 20 years to bat over .276 and have 32HRs and 105+ RBI

2) Rosario DOES get negatively impacted with defensive stats when Buxton is in the game (it is a by-product of the system)

3) You can basically exchange Kepler's walks for more hits for Rosario - which moves base-runners beyond a base?

4) NONE of our potential replacements will replace Eddie's offensive statistics in MLB in 2020, 2021, or 2022 - as evidence of this fact - how many times have the prospects even exceeded his 2019 in their minor league career (average, HRs, XBH, RBI, RBI% with RISP)?

5) The same armchair GMs that don't want to extend him for a few more years are the same people who wanted to give away Sano as recently as this past May/June

In short, it is embarrassing how many erroneous assessments we have seen from this group in 5 that do not own up to it after the fact.....

4) The same armchair GMs


Point five is 100 percent not true, and stated in an insulting way.....

People are cherry picking stats. Look at all the stats, compared to corner outfielders.

It would be cool if we could discuss this politely....
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#26 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 10 November 2019 - 12:30 PM

 

I think the reasons you hear trade Eddie has more to do with other factors like 2 years if control at a price of 22-25 million. We have several strong prospects on the way and several solid players who can hold the position till the prospects are ready at a fraction of the price. And I only hear we should trade for pitching. So if.trading Eddy helps us get better pitching either through trade or cost savings, the we should do it. Otherwise we can wait.

Those prospects aren't ready now and I highly doubt they outperform Eddie in 2020. I think Rosario is a year to year kind of guy personally. I don't think he's going to get that pitching back, but I do want him on the team in 2020...

 

Let's not forget that Eddie was one of the few guys who hit well in the playoffs.

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#27 Kelly Vance

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Posted 10 November 2019 - 02:38 PM

 

Eddie led the team in RBI. By one.

 

RBI is an opportunity stat. Here are the Twins' 14 busiest batters in 2019, sorted by number of plate appearances with runners in scoring position (RISP), with runners driven in (RBI-HR) in those instances along with BA and SLG (in other words, ignoring walks since they rarely lead to the RBI we want):

 

173 - Rosario - 71 / .340 / .538

146 - Polanco - 48 / .333 / .561

135 - Cruz - 54 / .368 / .575

121 - Cron - 48 / .299 / .598

116 - Kepler - 44 / .309 / .474

113 - Schoop - 25 / .176 / .422

110 - Sano - 32 / .245 / .649

109 - Gonzalez - 35 / .298 / .447

76 - Buxton - 32 / .282 / .634

71 - Garver - 27 / .344 / .770

63 - Arraez - 21 / .327 / .382

57 -Adrianza - 16 / .295 / .477

53 - Cave - 16 / .244 / .400

50 - Astudillo - 16 / .267 / .311

 

(Just to be clear - credit is given for runners driven in on a HR, just not the batter himself.)

 

Eddie had fine efficiency in driving in runs when runners were on second and/or third, but so did Nelson and Byron (Buxton actually drove in a greater percentage than Rosario) at around the same 40% rate, while Max and Mitch weren't too far behind. Mostly what we are seeing and remembering is opportunity.

 

Additional note: AL and MLB average was just under 30%, and as a team the Twins were above 33%, so overall our hitters did pretty well at driving in runners in scoring position, and only a few individuals (*cough*Schoop*cough*) lagged the league.

What you call an "opportunity stat" is a negative way of conceding that "the guy got it done."

 

And it does not denigrate a guys getting it done that there were guys on base. Of course there are guys on base. That's why we call them runs batted in. 

 

Eddie makes things happen. Usually good things.I like it that he takes advantage of the "opportunity" presented

 

 

 

 

Edited by Kelly Vance, 10 November 2019 - 02:43 PM.

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#28 ashbury

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Posted 10 November 2019 - 03:03 PM

What you call an "opportunity stat" is a negative way of conceding that "the guy got it done."

I said nothing at all about Eddie that was negative. He was above league average at the important job of driving in baserunners.

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#29 tarheeltwinsfan

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Posted 10 November 2019 - 04:11 PM

 

Thanks for a reasonably positive post about Eddie.Will second, or third, those comments above about his drop off being related to his injury.

I tend to agree.

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#30 tarheeltwinsfan

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Posted 10 November 2019 - 04:12 PM

Move his locker next to Cruz's locker. Problem solved.

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#31 Dman

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Posted 10 November 2019 - 05:53 PM

 

I think people are confusing ideas here....

The downside of Eddie is that he's getting more expensive, at a position where the minor league system is stacked. A mid market team can't afford Eddie at some point. I don't think this is that year. Also, people seem to not compare him to other corner outfielders.... He's not all that great compared to other corner players.

Over the last 18 months he's been ok compared to other corner outfielders. That's just what the overall offensive numbers show.

That doesn't make him bad. It doesn't mean they need to get rid of him. It means they need the minor league players to step up this year. Because eventually they won't be able to afford him and pitching.

 

MIke I see this the same way.This isn't about bashing Eddie it is simply logical numbers based decision making.I love Rosario as much as the next guy but when looking at our farm system and payroll Eddie looks like the most likely to go at this point.Don't get me wrong I am pretty sure the Twins are keeping Rosario this year as they need the proven outfield depth so unless some team wants to overpay he will be around next year.

 

Look the guy was almost an All Star in the first half but teams made changes just before the break and they seemed effective.They played Eddie to his pull side on defense and they kept pitching him low and away out of the zone and after two strikes they threw him junk and he swung at almost anything with two strikes.Granted he was also injured and that affected him as well but he needs to better understand when to swing and when not to swing if he ever wants to be that All Star player he wants to become.Given what I have seen I don't think he can change and if he can't then he is replaceable IMO.

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#32 TopGunn#22

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Posted 10 November 2019 - 06:10 PM

I can't speak for everyone looking to trade Eddie, but I will speak for myself.I LIKE Eddie Rosario.No "Hate" involved here.But we need to fill FOUR of our 5 starting pitching slots and we've got not one, but TWO young corner outfielder types in Larnach and Kiriloff that WILL be better hitters than Eddie.I look at our roster and where else are you going to get a GOOD starting pitcher?There's a reason Eddie's name keeps coming up.He's not as bad as people are making him out to be.he's actually pretty darn good.There will be more than a handful of teams that could use a 32 HR109 RBI guy in their lineup.But honestly, our lineup can withstand losing Eddie's bat if it brings us back a solid #2 or #3 type.I guarantee you, once Larnach and Kiriloff make it to the big leagues, with whatever team they end up on, they will be more productive overall than Eddie.They will both see more pitches and be tougher outs.But Eddie could really help a team that needs some sock in one of their corner outfield positions.

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#33 Major League Ready

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Posted 10 November 2019 - 06:45 PM

 

I can't speak for everyone looking to trade Eddie, but I will speak for myself.I LIKE Eddie Rosario.No "Hate" involved here.But we need to fill FOUR of our 5 starting pitching slots and we've got not one, but TWO young corner outfielder types in Larnach and Kiriloff that WILL be better hitters than Eddie.I look at our roster and where else are you going to get a GOOD starting pitcher?There's a reason Eddie's name keeps coming up.He's not as bad as people are making him out to be.he's actually pretty darn good.There will be more than a handful of teams that could use a 32 HR109 RBI guy in their lineup.But honestly, our lineup can withstand losing Eddie's bat if it brings us back a solid #2 or #3 type.I guarantee you, once Larnach and Kiriloff make it to the big leagues, with whatever team they end up on, they will be more productive overall than Eddie.They will both see more pitches and be tougher outs.But Eddie could really help a team that needs some sock in one of their corner outfield positions.

 

I agree completely except for the part we should move Eddie for a SP. It is very rare ( I can't think of a single example ) where a position player with 2 years of control is moved for good starting pitching. Any team wanting Rosario would be because they the have a hole to close in order to contend. Trading away a good starting pitcher does not fit in that scenario. He will be moved to make room for Larnach or Kirilloff when one of them proves to be ready. He could also be moved if the payroll can be allocated better elsewhere.

Edited by Major League Ready, 10 November 2019 - 06:47 PM.

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#34 singlesoverwalks

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Posted 10 November 2019 - 10:56 PM

Watch video of Rosario from May. Watch, say, that game where they hit 8 home runs against the Angels. He's noticeably faster than he was at the end of the year. He burns down the line for an infield hit, scores from third on a sacrifice fly to shortstop, and does a pretty good job cutting off a double in the corner.

 

He had that ankle injury, and that slowed him down. That's why he looked so awful in the outfield. If you've ever had an ankle injury, you know they don't get better if you run on them.

 

And I have another theory. I think he gets bored. He's a bit of a space cadet, and if the situation isn't dramatic, he spaces out. Once the Twins had the playoffs more or less in hand and were playing that long string of games against mediocre teams, he checked out mentally. But when it came time to play the Yankees in the playoffs, he was really good again.

 

He is such a clutch player. He just is. If you need statistical evidence of that, here's a Fangraphs custom table listing all Twins with over 20 PA sorted by WPA (win probability added). Rosario, despite his relatively pedestrian aggregate numbers (reflected in his paltry WAR), still comes out 6th. That shows that he performs well in high-leverage situations.

 

Name | PA | WAR | WPA
Nelson Cruz | 521 | 4.3 | 3.62
Max Kepler | 596 | 4.4 | 3.01
Luis Arraez | 366 | 2.1 | 1.85
Jorge Polanco | 704 | 4 | 1.77
Miguel Sano | 439 | 2.7 | 1.29
Eddie Rosario | 590 | 1.2 | 1.28
Mitch Garver | 359 | 3.9 | 1.27
Marwin Gonzalez | 463 | 1.4 | 1.23
Byron Buxton | 295 | 2.7 | 1.03
LaMonte Wade | 69 | -0.2 | 0.47
Ehire Adrianza | 236 | 0.6 | 0.42
Willians Astudillo | 204 | -0.2 | 0.04
Jake Cave | 228 | 0.9 | -0.12
Ryan LaMarre | 26 | 0.1 | -0.12
Jason Castro | 275 | 1.6 | -0.47
Jonathan Schoop | 464 | 1.3 | -1.1
C.J. Cron | 499 | 0.3 | -1.59

 

If you want to know how bad WPA can get with a player with lots of plate appearances, check out C. J. Cron and Jonathan Schoop. lol.

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#35 Trov

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Posted 11 November 2019 - 10:18 AM

I have a love hate relationship with Eddie.He can come up big in big situations but his fielding is dropping, and he plays a very replaceable position.That being said, I doubt he has much value this day in age for trade.All the numbers being sited here every front office has, or should have.I would not be upset with a trade or keeping him, but if the FO thinks our OF prospects can match production and the money saved would bring in better pitching then trade or non-tender him.I do not think many teams would give up much for him.I know if I was on a different team looking to trade for him I would not be chomping at the bit to get him. 


#36 Harrison Greeley III

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Posted 11 November 2019 - 12:19 PM

The Twins should be listening on offers on Rosario at this point, but I'm not so sold on actively shopping him anymore. When it was first mentioned in the summer, there was an impression they'd get value for him. But now most non-Minnesota sports coverage I've seen seems familiar with his weaknesses in the field and strikezone judgment. I would not expect a big return for him. He's not going to fetch 'impact pitching' in return. Therefore I think the best course of action is to hang on to him till free agency unless a team offers something too good to pass up. 

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#37 Brandon

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Posted 11 November 2019 - 12:34 PM

Those prospects aren't ready now and I highly doubt they outperform Eddie in 2020. I think Rosario is a year to year kind of guy personally. I don't think he's going to get that pitching back, but I do want him on the team in 2020...

Let's not forget that Eddie was one of the few guys who hit well in the playoffs.


Since I can't like this post on my phone, I will just state it.

And while I agree with this statement, I was only pointing out why we would trade Eddie. If we can get enough pitching from him to justify going down to 20 HR and 80 RBI at a fraction of the cost it could be justified...I imagine there would be more to a trade like this...
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#38 nicksaviking

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Posted 14 November 2019 - 08:16 AM

I've previously said that corner bats are easy to find in free agency, but I see MLBTR is predicting large multi year deals for both Nick Castellanos and Marcell Ozuna, with both guys getting about $15M per. Both are similar .800+ish OPS corner guys with suspect defense, with Castellanos' defense being notoriously bad. 

 

I'd tend to think MLBTR is overestimating the two free agent's values, but I guess we'll see.