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#21 2wins87

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Posted 07 November 2019 - 03:03 PM

 

In what world is Rosario a replacement player?

 

In the world where he just posted a 1.2 fWAR.

 

That is, by definition, better than a replacement player. 

 

It was a down year for him, I wasn't thrilled with it either, but there's little reason to expect him to get even worse next year given his age and history.The projections will be for him to be a shade above a 2 WAR player, which is starter level.

 

There's probably a good portion of the fanbase that views him as better than he ever really was, but there seems to be a massive overreaction in the other direction too.

 

Go year to year with him.I think he could definitely be a non-tender candidate next year, but he's still a reasonable value right now.Even a powerhouse like Houston still has an averagish guy like Marisnick filling out their roster.

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#22 Mike Sixel

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Posted 07 November 2019 - 03:12 PM

Rosario – Absolutely not. One of the prospects will be better than him by 2021. The dollars will be more productive spent elsewhere.

Rodgers – I think he is great but I would not extend a RP, at least not yet.

Buxton – Sure but I don’t know the two sides could agree at this point.

Sano – A year ago I would have said absolutely not. He proved something showing up in better shape and getting back the plate discipline that made him very good early in his career. My problem would be that his body type just does not hold up.

Berrios – Sure, if the amount is reasonable. He might have an exaggerated sense of his market value. I would do it now if the number is reasonable. This can always be revisited at a later date.


Agreed.

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#23 2wins87

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Posted 07 November 2019 - 03:28 PM

Berrios is probably the one where I might feel really motivated to get something done.

 

I tend to think that his career is going to be fairly Radke-esk, but hopefully productive for longer. By which I mean, very good, de facto #1 starter on the team, but never quite getting to that national ace level as one of the best pitchers in the game.But I also tend to forget how young he still is given how many innings he's already pitched with the Twins.If they don't work out an extension, he's going to be just 28 when he does hit the free agent market in a couple of years (younger than anyone this year), in which case he'll be in line for a really big contract.Probably not necessarily the biggest AAV, but some team might easily think about going in on an 8 year deal for him.

 

It'd be nice to be able to lock him up for a few of those years where he's still in the middle of his prime, but it will probably also incentivise his side to drive a hard bargain, so I don't see them getting as incredible deals as they did for Kepler and Polanco.

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#24 nicksaviking

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Posted 07 November 2019 - 04:19 PM

I like Rosario. I'm not a big defensive guy (not that I think he's as bad as made out to be) and he seems to be really well liked in the clubhouse, so I think he brings more to the table than just a bat.

 

But the corner outfield is where you find all the free agent bargains.

 

And the Twins have about 50 corner bat prospects within two levels of the majors.

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#25 Battle ur tail off

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Posted 07 November 2019 - 04:42 PM

 

I like Rosario. I'm not a big defensive guy (not that I think he's as bad as made out to be) and he seems to be really well liked in the clubhouse, so I think he brings more to the table than just a bat.

 

But the corner outfield is where you find all the free agent bargains.

 

And the Twins have about 50 corner bat prospects within two levels of the majors.

 

And that is also why when someone comes a callin for one of those prospects and is willing to give up something of value for them, you don't clench them with such a tight fist. 

 

I like Rosario and feel he should be kept here until he reaches free agency. That said, he is pretty much Jacque Jones and I kind of feel he should be treated the same way Jacque was. Pay him what he's worth when he's here, but when its time to part way, its time.  

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#26 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 07 November 2019 - 05:38 PM

 

In the world where he just posted a 1.2 fWAR.

well... 0 fWAR = replacement player... 1.2 is above that.. and yes I know that a replacement player isn't exactly 0.

 

I also know said player is somewhat mythical.  

 

We had no one in our system this year that would have out produced Eddie. 

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#27 Thrylos

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Posted 07 November 2019 - 06:06 PM

I would definitely try to extend Garver at this point as well

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#28 Thrylos

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Posted 07 November 2019 - 06:07 PM

 

 

 

 

We had no one in our system this year that would have out produced Eddie. 

 

Not even Kirilloff?

 

/sarcasm...

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#29 Dman

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Posted 07 November 2019 - 06:21 PM

well... 0 fWAR = replacement player... 1.2 is above that.. and yes I know that a replacement player isn't exactly 0.
 
I also know said player is somewhat mythical.  
 
We had no one in our system this year that would have out produced Eddie.


Small sample size but Cave has the same OPS as Eddie and is probably a better defender in left than Eddie. Cave also had 8 dingers in his small number of a bats as well so he has some power. Not a great stretch for him to replace Eddie with those numbers.
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#30 Kelly Vance

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Posted 07 November 2019 - 06:49 PM

Sorry Cody, you lost me at hello. 

 

Your evaluation of Rosario is unfair to the point of blind bias.

Rosie had, IIRC, 32 HRs and 109 RBIs. Those are MVP candidate numbers.I don't think many Twins "replacement level players" tallied those numbers since they moved to Minnesota.Those are almost Killebrew numbers, certainly Morneau numbers. 

 

So your comment that most Twins fans over value Rosie's contribution.... sorry. That is Fake News. And more than a little condescending. 

 

But anyways,

 

 

I'd extend Buck, Sano, and Jose. These guys are special. I'd consider extending Rosie too. But we DO have corner OF guys about to break in. 

 

I'd try to teach Taylor a new pitch and think of converting him to a starter. He has the mound presence and stamina to be a #1 or #2 starter. Seriously, you want to pull a rabbit out of a hat, make Taylor another Grienke. 

 

I'd wait on Garver. Catchers are tough to project, given the challenges of the position. 

 

And I'd ask Cruz to sign on for another year. 

Edited by Kelly Vance, 07 November 2019 - 07:04 PM.

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#31 yarnivek1972

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Posted 07 November 2019 - 07:11 PM

Sorry Cody, you lost me at hello.

Your evaluation of Rosario is unfair to the point of blind bias.
Rosie had, IIRC, 32 HRs and 109 RBIs. Those are MVP candidate numbers. I don't think many Twins "replacement level players" tallied those numbers since they moved to Minnesota. Those are almost Killebrew numbers, certainly Morneau numbers.

So your comment that most Twins fans over value Rosie's contribution.... sorry. That is Fake News. And more than a little condescending.

But anyways,


I'd extend Buck, Sano, and Jose. These guys are special. I'd consider extending Rosie too. But we DO have corner OF guys about to break in.

I'd try to teach Taylor a new pitch and think of converting him to a starter. He has the mound presence and stamina to be a #1 or #2 starter. Seriously, you want to pull a rabbit out of a hat, make Taylor another Grienke.

I'd wait on Garver. Catchers are tough to project, given the challenges of the position.

And I'd ask Cruz to sign on for another year.


Two of the three finalists had over 40 HR. Both were also gold glove finalists. The third had roughly the same number of HR and RBI. But of course Marcus Semien is a shortstop. Also a gold glove finalist.

Eddie Rosario’s 32 HR barely cracked the top 40 in MLB.
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#32 mikelink45

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Posted 07 November 2019 - 07:22 PM

 

I don't remotely trust the dWAR grades for Rosario. In 2017 and in 2019, dWAR graded him at Josh Willingham and Delmon Young levels. In 2018, they graded him average. Fangrapshs defensive valuations were slightly different but followed the same pattern - horrible in 17 and 19, better in 18. What was the big difference in those years? An elite CF was missing in 18. 

 

An article a while back (either on fangraphs or BP?) noted a problem with defensive calculations when a team had three really good defenders. One of the OFers would get negative grades because the other OFers took over. I think this is what is happening to Rosario - in 17 and 19 he made 66 and 63 'out of zone' plays. In 18, in about 100-200 fewer innings, he made 77 OOZ plays. Having Buxton and Kepler in center field has hurt him but he's a solid enough OFer. 

Very nice - I agree completely.In an era when Robbie Grossman is considered for the Gold Glove I do not want to hear about defensive metrics.

 


#33 JLease

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Posted 07 November 2019 - 07:23 PM

 

Sorry Cody, you lost me at hello. 

 

Your evaluation of Rosario is unfair to the point of blind bias.

Rosie had, IIRC, 32 HRs and 109 RBIs. Those are MVP candidate numbers.I don't think many Twins "replacement level players" tallied those numbers since they moved to Minnesota.Those are almost Killebrew numbers, certainly Morneau numbers.  

 

Look, I like Rosario but there simply no way you can look at his numbers as being "MVP candidate numbers". Mike Trout had 1/3 more HR in roughly the same amount of games with nearly 140 additional points in OBP and nearly 150 pts in SLG%. (while playing far superior defense at a much tougher position) That's an MVP season...and there's decent odds he loses out this year to Bregman.

 

Rosario wasn't even one of the top three hitters on his own team this year, even taking defense completely out of it. He's a useful player, has at times been a good player, and the totality of his contributions (including staying healthy, which is a valuable skill) have been good for the Twins but there's simply no way he's an MVP candidate.

 

 

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#34 DocBauer

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Posted 07 November 2019 - 07:46 PM

#1 Berrios: So much talent and so much potential. People forget how young he still is. Home grown, power arms with #1 potential are rare.

#2 Sano: People also forget how young he is as well. While we can debate endlessly, and have, as to his defensive merits at 3B, or how long he can stay there, his bat PLAYS!

#3 Buxton: Healthy all of last season, I'd have him #2. Does he bet on himself still being the next Mays, Griffey Jr or Trout? Or does he view career/life in a more pragmatic fashion and realize he may be better off with guaranteed money on a still good deal vs looking/hoping for some mega contract?

#4 Rogers: Guy is fantastic and might even get better. But with control for a few more years, I'd hold off until at least next season. There is just no need to rush.

#5 Rosario: I am a HUGE Rosario fan. I also agree some of the defensive numbers and opinions don't accurately reflect his full ability. I also object that his production is somehow easily replaceable. Production is production. The one thing that has held him back, slightly, is a couple of injuries that slowed him a bit. I really want him around. But let's be honest, unless moved, Kiriloff, Larnach, Rooker and Raley are all 4 really, really interesting bats that could be ready over the next year plus. Just don't think I'd extend him at this point. But I sure wouldn't be disappointed if they did.
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#35 Kelly Vance

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Posted 07 November 2019 - 08:06 PM

 

Two of the three finalists had over 40 HR. Both were also gold glove finalists. The third had roughly the same number of HR and RBI. But of course Marcus Semien is a shortstop. Also a gold glove finalist.

Eddie Rosario’s 32 HR barely cracked the top 40 in MLB.

By Twins standards it is a great season. Rosie's critics are ungrateful. Period. 


#36 Kelly Vance

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Posted 07 November 2019 - 08:09 PM

 

Look, I like Rosario but there simply no way you can look at his numbers as being "MVP candidate numbers". Mike Trout had 1/3 more HR in roughly the same amount of games with nearly 140 additional points in OBP and nearly 150 pts in SLG%. (while playing far superior defense at a much tougher position) That's an MVP season...and there's decent odds he loses out this year to Bregman.

 

Rosario wasn't even one of the top three hitters on his own team this year, even taking defense completely out of it. He's a useful player, has at times been a good player, and the totality of his contributions (including staying healthy, which is a valuable skill) have been good for the Twins but there's simply no way he's an MVP candidate.

I was speaking historically, not just for the year of the Bombas.109 RBIs ain't nothing. 


#37 Mike Sixel

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Posted 07 November 2019 - 10:36 PM

 

By Twins standards it is a great season. Rosie's critics are ungrateful. Period. 

 

Rosario's critics compare his numbers to all the other corner OFers, then look at his likely cost the next two years, and say he shouldn't be extended. NO ONE is saying cut him. No one is saying he's a bad player. But if you look at his numbers, all of his numbers, he's just not all that good compared to other corner OFers, and he'll be expensive starting this year. 

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It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#38 wabene

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Posted 08 November 2019 - 07:25 AM

And that is also why when someone comes a callin for one of those prospects and is willing to give up something of value for them, you don't clench them with such a tight fist.

I like Rosario and feel he should be kept here until he reaches free agency. That said, he is pretty much Jacque Jones and I kind of feel he should be treated the same way Jacque was. Pay him what he's worth when he's here, but when its time to part way, its time.

I agree with this unless he turns a corner finding some overall discipline in his game. It's possible he has a big year. He's not too old to improve. Can you imagine what he could do with those quick hands if he could coax more strikes? A big thing with him is staying healthy. If Buxton could find a little durability then maybe the Twins wouldn't have to play Rosie when he's dinged up.

#39 beckmt

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Posted 08 November 2019 - 07:55 AM

Rosario is a gamer and does very good things (along with some bonehead plays).My issue is the league viewpoint of Rosario and when the league is walking Cruz to pitch to him, this speaks volumes to me.