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#21 spycake

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Posted 07 November 2019 - 10:10 AM

 

I repeat, Twins did NOT get swept by the Yankees because they did not have $20+ million pitchers on the payroll. They got swept because the so-called "bombas" went missing. Even a few timely hits could have turned the tide. The entire lineup collectively froze at the plate because the opposing less than star quality pitchers had "NY" on their caps. Simple as that.

Well, it's all related. Having a shutdown ace means your team might be more tolerant of a bomba outage. For example, the 2004 Twins won a playoff game behind Johan in NY where our bats were pretty quiet. No guarantees, of course.


#22 Vanimal46

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Posted 07 November 2019 - 10:14 AM

That's probably the case with the Bumgarner, Wheeler, Ervin Santana types whose offers are going to be so divergent that they need to make a life altering decision AND are on a shorter term deal.

But if Cole is debating a 6 year 200M offer from his preferred destination and a 6 year 210M offer from Option B, I have a hard time seeing him picking option B.

Saying that, maybe the Twins can swing some excellent sales pitches to make Minneapolis a preferred destination. There's got to be a lot of smooth talkers they could borrow from all those Fortune 500 companies right?


Cole will sign the most lucrative contract offered to him. Period. That's what Boras clients do.
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#23 ashbury

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Posted 07 November 2019 - 10:24 AM

Cole will sign the most lucrative contract offered to him. Period. That's what Boras clients do.

Well, that's the narrative. I don't think Boras supplies independently verifiable data that lets us conclude this.

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#24 spycake

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Posted 07 November 2019 - 10:56 AM

 

Well, that's the narrative. I don't think Boras supplies independently verifiable data that lets us conclude this.

Pretty sure it's in his binders, somewhere...

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#25 Battle ur tail off

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Posted 07 November 2019 - 11:04 AM

 

That's probably the case with the Bumgarner, Wheeler, Ervin Santana types whose offers are going to be so divergent that they need to make a life altering decision AND are on a shorter term deal.

 

But if Cole is debating a 6 year 200M offer from his preferred destination and a 6 year 210M offer from Option B, I have a hard time seeing him picking option B.

 

Saying that, maybe the Twins can swing some excellent sales pitches to make Minneapolis a preferred destination. There's got to be a lot of smooth talkers they could borrow from all those Fortune 500 companies right?

 

 

If Cole's best offer were 6/200 and we offered him 6/225, he'd be ours. It's that simple IMO. I don't think we will get him. But if we are the highest bidder, I'd bet we do.

 

Might not be the best investment towards the end of his deal, but I don't agree that players turn down more money very often to play somewhere they feel the weather is nicer, etc.


#26 Vanimal46

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Posted 07 November 2019 - 11:24 AM

Well, that's the narrative. I don't think Boras supplies independently verifiable data that lets us conclude this.


We can go off recent history and have a pretty good idea that whoever offers the most money wins the bid.

It was reported Manny Machado was offered 8/240 by the White Sox. They even hired his brother in law! Weirdly enough, he signed with the team that offered the most years and total money.

Bryce Harper turned down multiple 8-9-10 year offers from the Nationals, Cubs, and White Sox. So weird that he would end up in Philly who offered the most total money.

It's the off-season, so there's nothing wrong passing the time talking about where Gerrit Cole lives and goes to church. It's all a moot point if the Angels don't offer him the most money.
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#27 Vanimal46

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Posted 07 November 2019 - 11:29 AM

I remember when Yu Darvish was going to sign on the west coast because that had the most Japanese food options...
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#28 Cap'n Piranha

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Posted 07 November 2019 - 11:55 AM

 

That's probably the case with the Bumgarner, Wheeler, Ervin Santana types whose offers are going to be so divergent that they need to make a life altering decision AND are on a shorter term deal.

 

But if Cole is debating a 6 year 200M offer from his preferred destination and a 6 year 210M offer from Option B, I have a hard time seeing him picking option B.

 

Saying that, maybe the Twins can swing some excellent sales pitches to make Minneapolis a preferred destination. There's got to be a lot of smooth talkers they could borrow from all those Fortune 500 companies right?

 

Sure, I get, LA winning a tiebreak over MSP all else being equal.That's why I'm proposing the Twins do 7/$250 with an opt-out after 5.Hell, make it after 4 if need be.I'm not Gerrit Cole, so I can't say how much "living" in LA during the season is worth to him, but if the Angels go 7/$224 with no opt-out, I struggle to think Cole would pass on $26M/the option to re-up closer to his prime, rather than after it, if at all.


#29 Don Walcott

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Posted 07 November 2019 - 12:24 PM

Although I'd be cautious about trading with the Astros given our recent history, I think this would be a good time to see what they want for Greinke. They probably don't want much, and would prefer to use their resources to keep Cole. Greinke looks better and better as his contract gets shorter and shorter (I wanted the Twins to get him last year or before as well). At this point, there are only two years left on his contract. I would love to have him for those two years, as we have the money to spend and the team to compete in the playoffs.


#30 spycake

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Posted 07 November 2019 - 12:33 PM

 

Although I'd be cautious about trading with the Astros given our recent history, I think this would be a good time to see what they want for Greinke. They probably don't want much, and would prefer to use their resources to keep Cole. Greinke looks better and better as his contract gets shorter and shorter (I wanted the Twins to get him last year or before as well). At this point, there are only two years left on his contract. I would love to have him for those two years, as we have the money to spend and the team to compete in the playoffs.

Presumably Greinke still has the Twins on his no-trade list.

 

Plus. the Astros probably prefer Greinke over Cole for the shorter/cheaper contract too.


#31 DocBauer

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Posted 07 November 2019 - 07:59 PM

We can go off recent history and have a pretty good idea that whoever offers the most money wins the bid.

It was reported Manny Machado was offered 8/240 by the White Sox. They even hired his brother in law! Weirdly enough, he signed with the team that offered the most years and total money.

Bryce Harper turned down multiple 8-9-10 year offers from the Nationals, Cubs, and White Sox. So weird that he would end up in Philly who offered the most total money.

It's the off-season, so there's nothing wrong passing the time talking about where Gerrit Cole lives and goes to church. It's all a moot point if the Angels don't offer him the most money.


The very fact his last post game was NOT as a member of the Astros and was wearing a Boras corporation hat tells me a lot about him. (My opinion).

He could absolutely decide he loved his time in Houston and would love to return. And he could absolutely decide the pull of playing in CA isn't as big of a deal as playing with a chance to win for a quality club. But I think $$$$ wins out.
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#32 IndianaTwin

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Posted 07 November 2019 - 09:06 PM

 

Pretty sure it's in his binders, somewhere...

 

Fourth tab, section 3.7.4, subpoint C.1.a.

 

Or something like that.

 


#33 LA VIkes Fan

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Posted 08 November 2019 - 09:45 AM

 

If Cole's best offer were 6/200 and we offered him 6/225, he'd be ours. It's that simple IMO. I don't think we will get him. But if we are the highest bidder, I'd bet we do.

 

Might not be the best investment towards the end of his deal, but I don't agree that players turn down more money very often to play somewhere they feel the weather is nicer, etc.

I think this misses the point. Cole and Strassburg will get the money they want wherever they go. It would require stupid money for us to outbid the competition. This FO isn't going to do that. 

 

I hope they are going hard after Wheeler and either Bungarner or Hamels. There, contract structure or dollars might swing the decision. AND we have a good story to tell of a young team on the rise with an open window that's likely to stay open for at least 2-3 years. Let the big boys fight over Cole and Strasburg and try to get these guys early in the process before the Yankees, Dodgers, etc. turn their attention to the second level. I'm reading that Atlanta - similar team, similar finances - is already going heard after both Wheeler and Bumgarner. I think its a great strategy to be early in on the second tier.

 

BTW, I'm less excited about Ryu. I live in LA and Ryu is very inconsistent, injury prone and already 33. He's not a good place to spend $100m over 4-5 years. I think someone will give him close to that. I hope it isn't the Twins.  

Edited by LA VIkes Fan, 08 November 2019 - 09:45 AM.


#34 ashbury

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Posted 08 November 2019 - 11:02 AM

Pretty sure it's in his binders, somewhere...

I'm 100% sure of that. I still don't think he shares the info widely. Probably only in heavily redacted form even to his clients. Only what he chooses to, to us fans.

 

We can go off recent history and have a pretty good idea that whoever offers the most money wins the bid.

We get snippets, as you suggested, but it's not in the teams' collective interest to paint a clear picture. Neither if they were the high bidder and got snubbed, nor if they were second highest and "missed it by that much." None of these scenarios or a similar one is positive PR.

 

it's only fitting, since none of the sides doing the negotiations offers transparency to any of the others. "This offer isn't going to get it done - I am expecting a higher offer than that this afternoon - but I can present your offer to my client and see what he says. I suggest you add that extra year, though." "We have a couple of other players in mind, if your client is really firm about that additional year." Etc etc yadda yadda.

 

So I retain serious doubts we fans have enough information to know these things. The teams themselves may not know whether they were second or third or whatever, though they at least can compare the particulars of their own offer to what got accepted.

 

I was responding mostly to the utter certainty - probably that word "Period" is what pushed past my inertia and prompted me to reply.

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#35 Battle ur tail off

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Posted 08 November 2019 - 12:50 PM

 

I think this misses the point. Cole and Strassburg will get the money they want wherever they go. It would require stupid money for us to outbid the competition. This FO isn't going to do that. 

 

I hope they are going hard after Wheeler and either Bungarner or Hamels. There, contract structure or dollars might swing the decision. AND we have a good story to tell of a young team on the rise with an open window that's likely to stay open for at least 2-3 years. Let the big boys fight over Cole and Strasburg and try to get these guys early in the process before the Yankees, Dodgers, etc. turn their attention to the second level. I'm reading that Atlanta - similar team, similar finances - is already going heard after both Wheeler and Bumgarner. I think its a great strategy to be early in on the second tier.

 

BTW, I'm less excited about Ryu. I live in LA and Ryu is very inconsistent, injury prone and already 33. He's not a good place to spend $100m over 4-5 years. I think someone will give him close to that. I hope it isn't the Twins.  

 

How does it miss the point though? My point is that, if you are top bidder, you will get them signed more than 75% of the time. I don't believe in this player or that player would take less money to be on the coast, etc. 

 

I'm fine with what you suggested by the way. Getting on that second tier early is probably the smartest play. There is realistically very little chance the Twins come away with Cole or Strasburg. They just won't commit the type of money needed to get them here. Make good offers to the best of the rest and let's get them before the Yankees or someone throws stupid money at them. 

 

I'm also with you on Ryu. Don't want him unless he would sign a 1-2 year deal, which he wont. 


#36 LA VIkes Fan

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Posted 11 November 2019 - 10:17 AM

I guess I was thinking that we can't/won't be the top bidder on Cole or Strasburg, even if we wanted to be. I think whoever bids the most will set the market and the Yankees, Dodgers, Angels (for Cole), or Huston will meet it. We'll probably never know though since the Twins aren't likely to be that top bidder. 

 

I really hope you and I are right on the approach. Now is the time to have a shot at those second tier guys while the big boys are aiming high. Let's get in before they turn to the guys we have the best shot at. I would love to see us sign 2 of Odorizzi, Wheeler, Bumgarner and Pineda, plus either Hamels, Miley or Porcello. If we can't do that, let's trade for Chris Archer. I think he's a potentia change of league, change of scenery guy. Archer would have to be the 2nd or 3rd best guy we sign for it to work, though. 

 

My prediction - we re-sign Odorizzi and Pineda, plus Hamels or Miley. I also have this sneaking suspicion that the FO will call 2019 an aberration caused by the e coli and colitis and bring back Kyle Gibson on a one year 9-10m deal plus a mutual option at 13-15m. Not great overall, but not horrible.  




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