74 replies to this topic

[jrod23]

 

I think you have to protect Tyler Wells. He was just too damn good before his TJ surgery. Most others I agree with though.

 

Thank you!!! Somebody said it.Granted, Wells has only reached AA w/32 innings, but he's improved with every advancement up the ladder.Yes, he's coming off a surgery, but he's 6'8" with stuff.On top of that, he's committed to becoming better. It was well known he has moved down the route of taking care of himself in the off-season (ironic, I know).However, someone is going to pick this guy up and play the "stash him card" since he's going to be fresh off an injury.

 

Unfortunately, it rarely matters in contract talks or adding a man to the 40-man roster, but Tyler Wells won the Harmon Killebrew award and is a standout a person.

[jrod23]

 

 

Travis Blankenhorn - plays and looks like a left handed hitting Justin Turner...hope he's that kind of late bloomer

 

 

Well put.

[ashbury]

Travis Blankenhorn - plays and looks like a left handed hitting Justin Turner...hope he's that kind of late bloomer

Got a ways to go in development of teh awesum beard, though.

 

[mikelink45]

I am not excited about keeping many of these players on the 40.My only question with each name is - can a team afford to waste a place on their roster for the entire season to have that player.Javier is my prime example - he can't compete in the MiLB and you are afraid to lose him to MLB?Why?  

Raley?If you have room fine, but we have Larnach, Kiriloff, Cave, Wade.Keep him, but not if it jeopardizes someone more important.

 

How many of these will make the Twins lineup in the next three years?What are their odds?Package a batch and make a trade.Move on and make the Twins into a better team.  

[JLease]

 

I think Chalmers gets claimed...a former top pick who could be a RP for a bad team next year. I probably protect him due to having space.

I protect Jax and Duran for sure. Everyone else? I'm not sure it matters....

 

Agreed on Jax; if you want to keep him you have to add him; he's definitely a guy who could pitch some middle relief for a crap team, or spot start.

 

Duran is an easy call.

 

Chalmers...man, I don't know. There's some interesting upside there, but his control is still rough. I feel like he's a guy who might get claimed but would end up being returned once a team realizes that they can't really send him out to mop up and he's not developing sitting on the back of the bench. But if he's claimed, does that screw up his development path so badly you might not even be able to get him straightened out? I think he might slide through, but the team seems high on him so maybe they don't want to take the risk.

 

Raley and Blankenhorn are worth adding; both could contribute as soon as next season, there's at least some positional flexibility there...I think these are guys you want in your system for depth or trade at worst.

 

Celestino...there's talent there, but there's no way he's ready to hit in the majors. Would a team claim him to sit as a defensive replacement all year? Seems unlikely to me. He's barely had a cup of coffee in high A. Kepler was a much higher rated prospect at the time, but the Twins also had a lot more chum on their 40-man, too. I think he slides through and isn't protected.

 

Javier is the really tough call, I think. There's still so much potential, but he's still a looooong way away. I like the kid, but 40-man spots do have value. With more teams tanking and having the 26th slot could a team grab him and just stash him for the season? It's probably more likely now than it was 5 years ago, so i think he might get a spot. I think this is the hardest call of any of them.

[birdwatcher]

Thinking about this more generally, it's possible that our unprotected list will be viewed as more poach-worthy than we might think. Other organizations sure did raid us for coaching talent! Our full-season teams won a lot of games, and you can bet reports got sent upstairs by field people all over the league regarding some of the talent on display.

 

The FO has already done some things to cut down on the possibility of a Shane Mack-like loss, I guess. We sent Diaz and Davis packing, and graduated guys like Alcala and Stashak to the big club.

 

I'd still like them to dangle Blankenhorn and Gordon to see if someone bites on one of the two with a great offer of a low-minors prospect package (they won't attract the #2 starter we need). I'd hope they'd do the same with Cave, Rooker, Wade, and Raley with the thought of selling one or even two and protecting the others.

Edited by birdwatcher, 06 November 2019 - 11:10 AM.

[spycake]

 

• OF Luke Raley - Raley was the Dodgers seventh-round pick in 2016 out of Division 2 Lake Erie College. He played well, and in July 2018, he came to the Twins with Devin Smeltzer in the Brian Dozier trade. He started 2019 in Rochester and was playing well when he hurt his ankle and needed surgery. It ended his season though he did play in the Arizona Fall League. He has power, and can play all three outfield positions, though center field is a stretch.

I'm not sure Raley was playing *that* well when he got hurt, at least not in terms of forecasting his future. He had a 122 wRC+ at Rochester, basically the same as his AA performance when the Dodgers traded him (123). And this was held up by a .403 BABIP -- 30.4% K rate, only 5.1% walk rate. A .214 ISO, but in a league with a .179 ISO, that's not notable.

 

It was useful for Rochester, but for a 25 year old corner player, it doesn't suggest much of a future in MLB. Is Raley appreciably more valuable than, say, Daniel Palka a few years ago?

[spycake]

 

Raley: Yes. If not for his injury, we are talking about NOT protecting Wade, IMO.

There wouldn't really have been a way to "not protect Wade" in terms or Rule 5, regardless of what happened with Raley. Wade was added to the 40-man last winter, so you'd have to remove him now to give his spot to someone else, and he'd probably just get claimed on waivers.

[spycake]

 

Raley is MLB-ready and provides the Twins with a RH OF bat who can play CF.They probably need him more than Cave.

FYI, Raley bats left (throws right, though!).

[DocBauer]

There wouldn't really have been a way to "not protect Wade" in terms or Rule 5, regardless of what happened with Raley. Wade was added to the 40-man last winter, so you'd have to remove him now to give his spot to someone else, and he'd probably just get claimed on waivers.

Sorry, I should have made myself more clear. I meant not protect as in remove. Or Cave if they truly liked Wade more.

[Rosterman]

 

 

My 40-man adds look like this:

 

Luis Rijo - just so we can continue to compare him to Gil
Jhoan Duran - Big Arm and a Falvine acquisition
Griffin Jax - Think he'd get picked up by the Marlins and dealt at deadline
Jovani Moran - young LHR (no other reason)

 

Wander Javier - POT (as in big potential)
Travis Blankenhorn - plays and looks like a left handed hitting Justin Turner...hope he's that kind of late bloomer

Gilberto Celestino - should bust out this summer also Falvine Acquisition
Luke Raley - medium aged OF insurance (or we can fast forward those guys a couple years younger)

 

I'd part ways with the following:

Harper - the book has been written and all the teams have it

Hildy - lost the confidence to fool batters...I wonder if he's not tipping pitches

Poppen - not as fresh anymore

Cron - I hope the surgery does wonders for him...too high ARB$$ to keep around

 

Bringing my total to 35....leaving FA room for 3 starters a reliever and backup catcher

 

I'll wait for another topic for freeing up some spots via trades...

Which will have to happen when you look at next years R5 group

 

Here's a picture (which in this case is worth 210 words) of my 40-man roster Sheet

 

 

Some interesting names, here. Two MIGHT be added during the season (Kirilloff and Rooker). The whole point of adding someone to the 40-man is SUCH GREAT longterm potential and WILL THEY PLAY in 2020 and you need to have a chance to see that. Remember, the Twins ARE NOT a rebuilding team, so you have to judge EACH roster spot carefully. You can't have a half-dozen guys floating in the minors with a"maybe next year." If that is the case, don't add them. You should also be marekting players, especially those that will come to Rule 5 needs next season, in packages for usable pieces for NOW. It always pains me to see players just walk (i.e. Gonsalves is one, Stewart may be another). You wish you could've gotten something, anything. But, hey, who ever knows.

 

[Dman]

I think Duran is the only lock on this list.While I am not a believer in protecting position players in the rule V I would protect Raley for sure as he is almost MLB ready and with rosters expanding makes sense to be poached by teams not planning to compete next year. 

Blankenhorn might get poached as well as he reminds me of Niko Goodrum to some extent without the speed and maybe a better bat.  He might not get taken but would hate to lose him at this point.He might be a tough add though because if he regresses he might be hard to get off the 40 man.

Celestino is pretty young I agree with the poster who said a team could take him as 4th outfielder as his defense is good and then hope the bat plays.Pretty big gamble at this stage though and you don’t see many or any teams really try that in Rule V, but with roster expanding and some teams not competing you never know. 

I would not protect Wander.His defense is poor and his bat didn’t even play in A ball.He might have potential but appears to be years away at this point.I don’t know why a team would saddle themselves with a player like that on their 40 man.

For pitcher’s I am torn on Chalmers.He still has control problems although they have gotten better and should get better the further removed from surgery he is.I just don’t think he is ready for MLB right now and I am not sold yet that he ever will be.The K rate looks good though and he is a hard thrower so probably needs to be added.

Also torn on Jax.I love that he just goes after hitters but the WHIP is a little high and without the K’s 5th starter is likely the best he can do at the MLB level.Still would hate to lose him and I think he could work in someone’s pen right now so might have to add him.Tough call there though as we have some higher quality guys not too far off.

I was pretty high on Wells but coming off surgery he might be a really big gamble for a team to take but his K 9 is good and I have always liked him for a spot in the pen. Unless he doesn’t come back well I think he will be a guy that makes it.Not sure if needs protection this year or not but he would be guy I would hate to see leave.

 

I also like Moran better than most on this site.He had a K 9 last year of 13 but a horrible WHIP.He doesn’t throw real hard but he gets such good movement he K’s a lot of guys.Personally I would rather have Moran on the 40 man than Wisler.Wisler has one great pitch is 27 and has no options.Moran has two good pitches is 22 and has a full set of options.If they think they can fix Wisler why can’t they fix Moran?I don’t get it.I think Jovani is underrated but I guess we will see how this plays out soon enough.

[Seth Stohs]

Re-posted at the top as the Twins have until Wednesday, November 20th at 7:00 p.m. to make their 40-man roster adds. 

[rdehring]

Now that we are at zero minus 25 hours, I can't see them adding more than 6.Maybe even only 5.Yet all 8 of the players you mention would be at risk if not added.Hopefully, we will learn of a trade before the deadline when they have either moved one of these players for a younger prospect or included one in a bigger trade which will create extra 40-man space.  

 

On the flip side, it is nice having a organization so strong that this would become an annual problem. 

[Dman]

 

Now that we are at zero minus 25 hours, I can't see them adding more than 6.Maybe even only 5.Yet all 8 of the players you mention would be at risk if not added.Hopefully, we will learn of a trade before the deadline when they have either moved one of these players for a younger prospect or included one in a bigger trade which will create extra 40-man space.  

 

On the flip side, it is nice having a organization so strong that this would become an annual problem. 

 

I agree I think 5 players is the max and I bet they really would like to only add 3 or 4.IMO they could stand to lose the position players as position players have been taken less frequently than pitchers in past rule V drafts.So if they want to gamble i think that is where they gamble.

 

I think they add Duran, Jax and Blakenhorn.Technically they can probably afford to lose Raley as they have Cave and Wade with Rooker, Larnach and Kirilloff probably ready fairly soon anyway.  

 

They might want to protect Rio but he is a ways a way.Tough call there for me.I guess we will find out tomorrow.

[Nine of twelve]

 

"......in 80 games, he hit just .177 with nine doubles and 11 home runs. He also had 17 errors. So, could he play in the big leagues today? Probably not. But he has as much talent as anyone in the organization....."

 

So much talent, I keep hearing. If he has that much talent, but can only perform at these levels in the low minors, there seems to something drastically wrong with the talent assumption, it seems. I mean seriously, the results of all this talent has been horrible. I get the injuries, but he was healthy for the 80 games, right? These numbers are not supporting the assumptive talent. Even 17 errors in only 80 games. Something is askew.

Look at how lost Miguel Sano was when he resumed play in 2018 after a serious injury and major surgery. And then look at the last 3 months of 2019. I'm not equating the two players, but performance after a serious injury and/or surgery is unreliable data.

[DocBauer]

Still would like to keep all 8 at the top of the list even though I know that's improbable/impossible. Not sure a couple weeks from the original post has clarified things, but reflection does offer up new perspective.

Duran is a clear given. Maybe the only true given.

I was wavering on Blenkenhorn for a while until I re-read his 2019 and did my own reflection. Where be "setttles" as a position player may be a moot point. Flat out, he is a talented athlete who offers up a lot of potential. There is no such thing as having too much talent on your roster. I know POTENTIAL is an ugly word at times, but even if he never becomes Sano's replacement, or the next 1B, etc, and even though there are other very talented corner OF in the system, he has real "potential" to be a 5 position player on this team. There is real value in that.

Maybe I'm the only one, but I see Raley as a combination of Wade and Cave. A guy who can hit, make some contact, provide power, run the bases a little bit, and play 3 spots, maybe 4. Tne Twins played him a lot in CF last year to see what he could do. Call me crazy, but I think they like him. His strong finish in the AFL also looks good.

I am extremely hopeful on Chalmers. He has a way to go. I'm not sure how other teams view his last 3 starts at Ft Myers and his AFL performance. But I know this FO is big on potential, while the previous FO seemed to look more at "polished" players. If that makes sense. Pitching wise, it feels this FO really loves big arms and wants to work with them and take their "shot" at developing them.

I think 6 is about right and max. That leaves 2 spots left.

Jax is finally getting a chance to play and develop. The SO numbers aren't there, and that is concerning. But look how far he has come with so limited opportunity. Again, this FO loves arm talent and the opportunity to develop it. Sure wish I knew how they view him as he wasn't a draft selection of theirs.

They didn't draft Rijo, but they went out and got him. The early results look really good. But he has yet to appear above low A ball.

We talk about how deep OF is the system, but I'm not certain how deep CF is. After the OK combination of Cave and Wade, each of whom still offers up some potential as solid backup options, your CF prospects are all in A ball and lower, unless you include Lewis as a potential there. Celestino offers up a ton of potential, and finished the season strong, and was acquired by this FO. But 30 AB at high A? Does that really make him enticing to anyone out there as a stash player?

You could make arguments for each of these 3 guys to be protected or not. And really, you wouldn't be wrong. In order of priority, all things considered, I'd say:

Jax....close enough you keep based on potential.
Rijo...big arm you traded for and want to develop.
Celestino....tons of potential but willing to lose with other A players in the system.

The elephant in the room, of course, is Javier. No mistake being made, there is NO-ONE who wants to lose him. But reality is, he just isn't ready. Not close. Despite all his talent and potential, could any ML team find reason or room to stash him on their roster for a full season in hopes of what he might become given time to flounder?

The smaller elephant is Tyler Wells. I know he had a great season a year ago and won organizational pitcher of the Year. I know there is potential there. But if a team wants to draft a AA pitcher coming off surgery to stash for a whole season, then bless the team and player. I just don't see it.

IMO, the rest are guys you expect to not be drafted or returned. Weil is the one guy who could potentially come back to bite you. But again, the depth potential should make you feel really good if that happens.

[twins_89]

I think the Twins almost have to protect high upside guys like Chalmers, Javier, and Celestino. There are way too many MLB teams who aren't really trying to compete and seem like they would be willing to draft and hold onto high-risk/high-reward players in the hopes of stealing talent that could really be good a couple years down the road.

[Mike Sixel]

They need to leave four spots open for free agents.

[TwinsTakes-RD]

 

They're at 31 right now.

They're actually at 32 because of Odo, who had yet to accept the QO when you wrote the great article. How does having one less roster spot change your decisions?

 

They'll likely add 2 more starters & a catcher through FA but can DFA/Outright Harper and/or Hildy but a trade could also help with the 40-man. That would mean 7 spots.

 

Do they protect the top prospects and anyone they think could be taken?

 

Duran, Raley, Blankenhorn, Celestino, Javier & I'm intrigued by 1B Zander Wiel & LHP Jovani Moran. I also like Jax & Chalmers. It'd be awesome to hear the conversation in the front office about these decisions.

 

There's a Great Article on MiLB about the best Twins prospects this season with quotes from Twins Director of Player Development Alex Hassan that everyone should check out:

https://www.milb.com...ter/c-311878310

 

Great convo, everyone!

Edited by TwinsTakes-RD, 20 November 2019 - 02:43 AM.