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Front Page: Offseason Underway: Twins Make Flurry of Moves

jake odorizzi martin perez nelson cruz stephen gonsalves kohl stewart
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#21 USAFChief

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Posted 05 November 2019 - 11:21 AM

 

Lower revenue teams have never agreed with your position and over the past decade all teams are clearly putting more value on prospects. What do you know that the GMs don’t?

Well, I know that Gonsalves and Stewart are examples 1,000,000,000 and 1,000,000,001 of the vast, overwhelming majority of prospects that amount to nothing. 

 

It's the next market inefficiency. I should patent it.

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#22 old nurse

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Posted 05 November 2019 - 11:31 AM

 

Gonsalves and Stewart are examples 1,000,000,000 and 1,000,000,001 why you never, ever resist trading "prospects" for established major league players.

 

I acknowledge there are most likely dozens of examples in those 1,000,000,001 where you'd end up regretting the move.

How do you know that they were not offered in trade and were not wanted? What is the point in trading potential for a player you could pick up for veteran's minimum in free agency?


#23 Mike Sixel

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Posted 05 November 2019 - 11:32 AM

How do you know that they were not offered in trade and were not wanted? What is the point in trading potential for a player you could pick up for veteran's minimum in free agency?


I believe Chief's point is not about these two on particular, but in putting so much value into prospects..... It's a pattern, not a one off.
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#24 old nurse

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Posted 05 November 2019 - 11:36 AM

 

 

Well, I know that Gonsalves and Stewart are examples 1,000,000,000 and 1,000,000,001 of the vast, overwhelming majority of prospects that amount to nothing. 

 

It's the next market inefficiency. I should patent it.

That is the reality of minor league baseball. It has been that way for a long time.There used to be many more levels of minor league ball.They got rid of them long ago. They are talking about cutting back the draft and minor leagues even more. It is not a new idea


#25 old nurse

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Posted 05 November 2019 - 11:43 AM

 

I believe Chief's point is not about these two on particular, but in putting so much value into prospects..... It's a pattern, not a one off.

It could be said of any of the millions of prospects that he should have been traded. There is no value in a prospect unless another team values them highly.

Edited by old nurse, 05 November 2019 - 11:44 AM.

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#26 snap4birds

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Posted 05 November 2019 - 12:57 PM

If you take a look at that 2013 draft, there really wasn't a lot of talent available.Kind of takes the sting out of Stewart not turning out.There weren't many guys in the 1st round that look like MLB regulars, and 2 of them were drafted before Kohl so the Twins didn't even have a shot at them.Only 4 players drafted 4-31 overall have more than 2 bWAR.  

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#27 birdwatcher

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Posted 05 November 2019 - 01:35 PM

 

Gonsalves and Stewart are examples 1,000,000,000 and 1,000,000,001 why you never, ever resist trading "prospects" for established major league players.

 

I acknowledge there are most likely dozens of examples in those 1,000,000,001 where you'd end up regretting the move.

 

Never, ever resist trading "prospects" for whatever the market will bear in the way of established major league players? Am I interpreting this right?

 

We can't just say trade the dang prospects, but only the ones who flunk out or get injured.

 

I don't have to name dozens to make the point that, sometimes, you resist. I'll try to counter your position with a dozen examples or so.

 

What do you think the club would have fetched in the way of established major league players for these prospects: Carew, Puckett, Oliva, Blyleven, Mauer, Hrbek, Knoblauch, Hunter, Radke, and A.J. Pierzynski? I am convinced every one of those would have been catastrophic one-sided trades.

 

And once Pierzynski became an established major league player, weren't prospects Liriano and Nathan, and Boof too, an awfully nice return? And once Liriano was an established major league player, wasn't Eduardo Escobar, a guy with all of 45 MLB games under his belt, a nice prospect to get in return? How about veteran Aguilera for prospects Viola and Tapani in 1989?

 

I don't want these guys to avoid trading prospects like Ryan did, I want the opposite to happen. And I want the trades to never, ever create a shortage, and instead come from a surplus. And I'd love it if it always involved a redundancy among established major league players who are blocking the next Gaetti, Knoblauch, Morneau, or Johan Santana (wishful, I know).

 

The reason I favor trading proven players for prospects as often as possible is because established major league players are valuable, often at peak value, and while prospects flunk out at a high rate, it's game-changing when you land a future star on the cheap.

 

I'd trade Jake Cave for Luis Gill in a New York nanosecond.

 

 

Edited by birdwatcher, 05 November 2019 - 02:10 PM.

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#28 JLease

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Posted 05 November 2019 - 01:41 PM

 

If you take a look at that 2013 draft, there really wasn't a lot of talent available.Kind of takes the sting out of Stewart not turning out.There weren't many guys in the 1st round that look like MLB regulars, and 2 of them were drafted before Kohl so the Twins didn't even have a shot at them.Only 4 players drafted 4-31 overall have more than 2 bWAR.  

 

It's true that 2013 is looking like a down year (although players like Tim Anderson and Hunter Dozier are certainly going to be adding value to their clubs for the next few years); only Aaron Judge has really emerged as a great player. 2014 is definitely looking much more productive already...but it doesn't change the fact that the Twins had a top 5 pick bust.

 

But your math is a little arbitrary. here's what round 1 looked like post twins pick for bWAR in 2019 and career-wise for players with 2+ bWAR: Austin Meadows (3.8 in 2019, 3.6 career), Hunter Renfroe (2.6 & 6.2), Tim Anderson (4.0 & 10.2), Marco Gonzalez (3.2 & 5.4), Aaron Judge (5.4 & 18.6), Sean Manaea (1.4 & 8.7), Michael Lorenzen (2.0 & 4.4), Corey Knebel (0.3 & 4.3)

 

Which doesn't even include Hunter Dozier, who was 2.1 bWAR in 2019 after a rough 2018.

 

but Kohl Stewart was the start of a stretch that hasn't gone so great for the twins in drafts: Stewart, Nick Gordon (jury still out, looks like an MLB player to me in the next year either with the twins or elsewhere) and Tyler Jay (out of baseball). Two out of three years busting on your first round pick when all three of them fell between 4-6 is rough on an organization.

 

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#29 birdwatcher

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Posted 05 November 2019 - 01:59 PM

 

Milwaukee says hi.

 

Milwaukee may not be our best poster child to bolster a MLB player versus prospect discussion.

 

Personally, I think it's a more complicated thing anyway, but back to Milwaukee:

 

For 2019, their player payroll exploded by almost $33M a larger dollar increase than all but NYY ($38M) and PHI ($45M). They ended the year behind 10 other clubs in the power rankings, have the 29th-best farm system according to Fangraphs, and at roughly $125M, don't have a lot of wiggle room in the budget. A tight window.

 

The Yelich trade was terrific, but it doesn't support an argument that the MLB player side of trades is a surefire way to go. Even looking at the Yelich trade, Brinson started his MLB career, as did Yamamoto and Diaz, and Monte Harrison is a Top 100 prospect. May end up being a good deal for both clubs. FanGraphs thinks Miami's farm system is the 4th-best in baseball, and their payroll is $50M less than Milwaukee's. Might be a club that turns a GM into a superstar.;)


#30 USAFChief

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Posted 05 November 2019 - 02:31 PM

 

Never, ever resist trading "prospects" for whatever the market will bear in the way of established major league players? Am I interpreting this right?

 

We can't just say trade the dang prospects, but only the ones who flunk out or get injured.

 

I don't have to name dozens to make the point that, sometimes, you resist. I'll try to counter your position with a dozen examples or so.

 

What do you think the club would have fetched in the way of established major league players for these prospects: Carew, Puckett, Oliva, Blyleven, Mauer, Hrbek, Knoblauch, Hunter, Radke, and A.J. Pierzynski? I am convinced every one of those would have been catastrophic one-sided trades.

 

And once Pierzynski became an established major league player, weren't prospects Liriano and Nathan, and Boof too, an awfully nice return? And once Liriano was an established major league player, wasn't Eduardo Escobar, a guy with all of 45 MLB games under his belt, a nice prospect to get in return? How about veteran Aguilera for prospects Viola and Tapani in 1989?

 

I don't want these guys to avoid trading prospects like Ryan did, I want the opposite to happen. And I want the trades to never, ever create a shortage, and instead come from a surplus. And I'd love it if it always involved a redundancy among established major league players who are blocking the next Gaetti, Knoblauch, Morneau, or Johan Santana (wishful, I know).

 

The reason I favor trading proven players for prospects as often as possible is because established major league players are valuable, often at peak value, and while prospects flunk out at a high rate, it's game-changing when you land a future star on the cheap.

 

I'd trade Jake Cave for Luis Gill in a New York nanosecond.

In my post I believe I acknowledged the possibility you might find literally dozens of examples that you would later regret.

 

Among the 1,000,000,001 prospects cited.

 

With respect..do the math.:)

 

Side note re bolded text: You're talking about Christian Yelich here, amiright? Or Verlander? Garrett Cole? Can't tell. 

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#31 Mike Sixel

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Posted 05 November 2019 - 03:01 PM

Milwaukee may not be our best poster child to bolster a MLB player versus prospect discussion.

Personally, I think it's a more complicated thing anyway, but back to Milwaukee:

For 2019, their player payroll exploded by almost $33M a larger dollar increase than all but NYY ($38M) and PHI ($45M). They ended the year behind 10 other clubs in the power rankings, have the 29th-best farm system according to Fangraphs, and at roughly $125M, don't have a lot of wiggle room in the budget. A tight window.

The Yelich trade was terrific, but it doesn't support an argument that the MLB player side of trades is a surefire way to go. Even looking at the Yelich trade, Brinson started his MLB career, as did Yamamoto and Diaz, and Monte Harrison is a Top 100 prospect. May end up being a good deal for both clubs. FanGraphs thinks Miami's farm system is the 4th-best in baseball, and their payroll is $50M less than Milwaukee's. Might be a club that turns a GM into a superstar. ;)


No one said sure fire. I responded to a post that said no mid market team ever trades prospects to get better when they aren't already good. I merely pointed out one team that does.

No one said it always works.... What we've said is that prospects don't either, and maybe trading them sometimes is a good idea... No one said it will always work.

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#32 bunsen82

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Posted 05 November 2019 - 03:59 PM

  1. In the current economic scenario, Odorizzo should take the qualifying offer and run.As long as he has a decent year next year, he should be able at the minimum to get a 2 year 20 million contract or 3 year 30 million contract next year when he has full leverage.Players who have not taken the qualifying offers have been the ones hurt, and often getting less for a single year of service than what they would have received for the qualifying offer, hoping for a bigger day and often putting up pedestrian numbers when they come back mid season because they didnt go to spring training.He should bet on himself and see what happens, either way he is $17.5 million richer than he was yesterday.  
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#33 Major League Ready

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Posted 05 November 2019 - 05:26 PM

 

"Never" is a mighty strong word (both you saying lower revenue teams have never agreed, and Chief for saying never resist trading prospects), but the Brewers have made these deals (Sabathia, Greinke, and now Yelich). The Royals obviously had a few famous examples (Shields and Cueto). Discussed recently, and it didn't work out quite the way Oakland hoped at the time, but their Samardzija moves were a net positive. The White Sox side of the Samardzija trade wasn't so good, but they did well with Peavy a few years earlier. Toronto did well in the Donaldson deal, although less good (but far from crippling) in their Price rental. Detroit did very well in the Cabrera trade, plus all right in deals for Sanchez, Price, and even Upton.

 

I think you need to take another look at my post and perhaps I should have been more descriptive. Atba minimum I should have centered the discussion on top prospects. I think you interpreted this as I said they "never trade" when what I said was that lower revenue teams definitely do not agree with Chief's assertion that prospects should be traded for MLB talent whenever possible. Obviously it happen but their practices have obviously been to highly value prospects. Would you agree that even larger revenue teams have placed more value on prospects over the last decade, even last 5 years?I think it is also accurate to say that GMs from lower revenue teams have NEVER agreed with Chief's preference to trade prospects for MLB talent.A few weeks ago I asked for examples of top 25 prospects that were traded by teams of equal or lower level. Not one response. It is extremely rare.  


#34 rdehring

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Posted 05 November 2019 - 05:48 PM

 

 

If you take a look at that 2013 draft, there really wasn't a lot of talent available.Kind of takes the sting out of Stewart not turning out.There weren't many guys in the 1st round that look like MLB regulars, and 2 of them were drafted before Kohl so the Twins didn't even have a shot at them.Only 4 players drafted 4-31 overall have more than 2 bWAR.  

Also thinking how disappointing it was that we wasted the #4 overall pick that year.Just took a look at the 2013 draft.There were 10 pitchers drafted after Stewart, only one (Marco Gonzalez, drafted by St. Louis) has done anything special in the big leagues. 

 

Granted a couple could be late bloomers and still do something, but not what I expected when I starter my research.Truth is 2013 was a terrible draft for pitchers.Didn't look to see what has developed from later rounds, but you can't blame the Twins for missing guys that weren't considered top prospects that year.  

Edited by rdehring, 05 November 2019 - 05:51 PM.

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#35 Mike Sixel

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Posted 05 November 2019 - 05:56 PM

 

I think you need to take another look at my post and perhaps I should have been more descriptive. Atba minimum I should have centered the discussion on top prospects. I think you interpreted this as I said they "never trade" when what I said was that lower revenue teams definitely do not agree with Chief's assertion that prospects should be traded for MLB talent whenever possible. Obviously it happen but their practices have obviously been to highly value prospects. Would you agree that even larger revenue teams have placed more value on prospects over the last decade, even last 5 years?I think it is also accurate to say that GMs from lower revenue teams have NEVER agreed with Chief's preference to trade prospects for MLB talent.A few weeks ago I asked for examples of top 25 prospects that were traded by teams of equal or lower level. Not one response. It is extremely rare.  

 

fair, but Chief is pretty clear....he's talking minor league players in general, not just top prospects......Gonsalves was never a top prospect (on some lists, on others he might have made a top 100 list).....Chief's point stands, as you yourself point out, teams should not be afraid to trade prospects that aren't ELITE.

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#36 darin617

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Posted 05 November 2019 - 06:22 PM

 

Gonsalves and Stewart are examples 1,000,000,000 and 1,000,000,001 why you never, ever resist trading "prospects" for established major league players.

 

I acknowledge there are most likely dozens of examples in those 1,000,000,001 where you'd end up regretting the move.

Exactly, prospects are cool but parades are cooler.

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#37 Major League Ready

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Posted 05 November 2019 - 06:22 PM

 

fair, but Chief is pretty clear....he's talking minor league players in general, not just top prospects......Gonsalves was never a top prospect (on some lists, on others he might have made a top 100 list).....Chief's point stands, as you yourself point out, teams should not be afraid to trade prospects that aren't ELITE.

 

I don't think anyone here cares if our team trades prospects outside the top 5 or 6. The rub here is that the desire of those always stressing trading prospects is that they are looking to acquire proven impact players. You don't generally get that done without giving up top prospects. 

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#38 tarheeltwinsfan

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Posted 05 November 2019 - 07:14 PM

 

Part of what makes it fun following this team now is the decisive maneuvering. Cutting bait with guys and not hanging on. I look at the 40 man and I don't see more than a couple of guys that have had their chances and they might not make the opener either. I also expect a variety of acquisitions during an off season worth watching.

Ryan Pressley, Nick Anderson and Liam Hendricks sure could have helped the pen this past season.


#39 Mike Sixel

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Posted 05 November 2019 - 07:29 PM

I don't think anyone here cares if our team trades prospects outside the top 5 or 6. The rub here is that the desire of those always stressing trading prospects is that they are looking to acquire proven impact players. You don't generally get that done without giving up top prospects.


But a good team can. Odorrizi, Yellich, others....

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#40 Mike Sixel

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Posted 05 November 2019 - 07:30 PM

Ryan Pressley, Nick Anderson and Liam Hendricks sure could have helped the pen this past season.


No one should be criticizing the Liam Hendriks decision. The error in Anderson was not trying him out before letting him go.... Pressley I just don't get that one.
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