Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.
Photo

Free Agent Pitching

  • Please log in to reply
50 replies to this topic

#21 beckmt

beckmt

    Senior Member

  • Member
  • 2,503 posts

Posted 02 November 2019 - 08:43 PM

 

The Angels will beat any offer any team presents (dollars, years, geographic location...).They have financial flexibility, made and won the play for Ohtani, and don't want to waste having Trout.The Twins should focus free agency on building a solid core (Odor and Pineda); with the hope that they pull the trigger on the over the top trade.It's the reality of being a fan of non-large market team.  

 

After several bad big contracts (read Pujols for openers), do not know if Angels owner would agree to that big a contract.If you are worried, then front end the contract knowing if Cole remains good he will opt out.There are ways to make this painful for big market teams with salary cap issues.

  • DocBauer likes this

#22 beckmt

beckmt

    Senior Member

  • Member
  • 2,503 posts

Posted 02 November 2019 - 08:45 PM

A QO to Oderizzi will show down the action there and guess the Twins will have a shot at resigning or Oderizzi just taking the QO.


#23 Jham

Jham

    Junior Member

  • Member
  • 2,214 posts

Posted 02 November 2019 - 08:54 PM

 

NOT disagreeing with you a bit. And I'm not saying annual value is wrong. But are you really comfortable paying that much, for that long, for a guy who pitches every 5th day...no matter how good...knowing his last couple of years will probably be mediocre? And don't the Twins also have to think about sustainability and future signings for guys on hand?

Assuming the Twins offered this, and assuming he would agree and want to play here vs Houston or return home to CA, I'd feel more comfortable if we could front load the deal the first few years for flexibility.

How about an opt out after 3yrs written in?

This is a very Minnesota Twins-esq response and the reason we're always outside looking in on FA. Front loading a contract means you're actually paying more for the player because of interest and the future value of money. $35 mil now is worth more than $35 mil 7 years from now. Invest that same $35 mil at a modest 3.15% over seven years and you've got $43.5 mil after 7 years. $8 mil. $7 mil for 6 years. $5.1 mil for 5 years. Meanwhile the price of players is also going up. $35 mil won't be as much then either. Long guaranteed contracts = interest free financing. Front loading loses you money, although it may be more attractive to the player.
 


#24 DocBauer

DocBauer

    Senior Member

  • Member
  • 5,774 posts

Posted 02 November 2019 - 09:13 PM

This is a very Minnesota Twins-esq response and the reason we're always outside looking in on FA. Front loading a contract means you're actually paying more for the player because of interest and the future value of money. $35 mil now is worth more than $35 mil 7 years from now. Invest that same $35 mil at a modest 3.15% over seven years and you've got $43.5 mil after 7 years. $8 mil. $7 mil for 6 years. $5.1 mil for 5 years. Meanwhile the price of players is also going up. $35 mil won't be as much then either. Long guaranteed contracts = interest free financing. Front loading loses you money, although it may be more attractive to the player.

But this not a mutual fund or 401K we are talking about. Nor are we talking about turnstiles bringing jn revenue because that is impossible to accurately predict.

We are talking about guaranteed dollars over a 6+ yr contract, possibly with an out clause. No matter how you look at the Twins payroll opportunity right now, their market is not the same as N.Y., Boston, Chicago, LA.

I don't think this is outside looking in at all, or a Twins-esque viewpoint. It is simply a HUGE contract that could be front loaded to entice a signing and provide additional flexibility in the latter years for contracts for other young players on extensions. My opt out idea is not unjque. It allows the player to maintain their contract, front loaded helps payroll in future years. But if said player decides to mkve on, you have, theoretically, quality players moving up and replace.

If I'm missing something here, then I am sorry for that.

Edited by DocBauer, 02 November 2019 - 09:25 PM.

  • beckmt and Battle ur tail off like this
"Nice catch Hayes...don't ever f*****g do it again."

--Lou Brown


#25 Jham

Jham

    Junior Member

  • Member
  • 2,214 posts

Posted 02 November 2019 - 09:42 PM

But this not a mutual fund or 401K we are talking about. Nor are we talking about turnstiles bringing jn revenue because that is impossible to accurately predict.

We are talking about guaranteed dollars over a 6+ yr contract, possibly with an out clause. No matter how you look at the Twins payroll opportunity right now, their market is not the same as N.Y., Boston, Chicago, LA.

I don't think this is outside looking in at all, or a Twins-esque viewpoint. It is simply a HUGE contract that could be front loaded to entice a signing and provide additional flexibility in the latter years for contracts for other young players on extensions. My opt out idea is not unjque. It allows the player to maintain their contract, front loaded helps payroll in future years. But if said player decides to mkve on, you have, theoretically, quality players moving up and replace.

If I'm missing something here, then I am sorry for that.


No, I agree that it could entice a player. Just I don't see teams doing this because more years for lower AAV tends to make sense for top level players. If your mortgage charge 0% interest, you'd have no incentive to pay down your home faster. If a player was to front load, I think they'd rather just sign a shorter deal and hit FA again. Again, we just don't see that with top players.
  • DocBauer likes this

#26 beckmt

beckmt

    Senior Member

  • Member
  • 2,503 posts

Posted 03 November 2019 - 05:56 AM

This is not difficult.You have a team that has a core of very good players for the next 3 years (for most of them). You have a lot of interesting pitching and position players coming up in the farm system.You can spike the payroll a little now, with the expectation it will level off or slightly go down without hurting you.

Therefore, sign Cole now (unless the price goes above $250 million for 7 years, at which time you are talking crazy money), QO Oderizzi, he will probably either take it or work a contract for like 3/$45, offer Pineda like 3/36 (this is a risk, but I feel it is fair)(he was on his way to much more before the suspension). Sign a couple of decent bullpen pieces (Romo, and one other(Smith, Becentes, Watson(if you're worried about the money))).Call it a day.Hold reliever contracts to 2 to 3 years.

If you fail to get a front end starter, then get 1 of the middle pool (Wheeler, Bumgardner) and hope to develop 2 - 3 of your own.Would hope Oderizzi takes the QO, you will probably know more after 2020 on the development of the farm system pitchers.

  • birdwatcher, DocBauer, SF Twins Fan and 1 other like this

#27 the_brute_squad

the_brute_squad

    Cedar Rapids Kernels

  • Member
  • 75 posts

Posted 03 November 2019 - 06:24 AM

Cole isn't in the conversation. He's going to stay in Houston or go home to California. Go all in for Baumgartner or Wheeler. Re-sign Odo and Pineda. Bring us Brusdar and you've got a solid rotation.

  • DocBauer and D.C Twins like this

#28 Twodogs

Twodogs

    Rochester Red Wings

  • Member
  • 1,006 posts

Posted 03 November 2019 - 08:49 AM

The Angels will beat any offer any team presents (dollars, years, geographic location...). They have financial flexibility, made and won the play for Ohtani, and don't want to waste having Trout. The Twins should focus free agency on building a solid core (Odor and Pineda); with the hope that they pull the trigger on the over the top trade. It's the reality of being a fan of non-large market team.


Well the Twins could hamstring teams like the Angels by making a huge offer to Cole. Say they offer 7/240 and the Angles will have to beat that because of who Cole's agent is. Then the Angles will have to go even higher and now they will have a tougher time going after much more. When you look at their obligations as far as Trout and Pujols, etc... They will start to run out of room. So with the Twins spending capability, they could make some crazy offers so as to harm the financial futures of some of these teams. I mean it would help the Twins in the long run if they use their spending capabilities to hamstring some of these teams in the future. If they don't seriously go in and hardly anyone else does either because they know he wants bto go to Cali then Angels could get a decent deal on Cole. I mean it will still be expensive, prob 7/240 or something like that, but if teams like the Twins throw down offers like that then teams like the Angels will have to beat those offers and that could set up system failure for teams like the Angles? I think the Twins need to bid on those guys with the idea that they probably won't get them, but that it will cause the Angels more harm in the future because the prices will get artificially driven up.
  • beckmt, SF Twins Fan, D.C Twins and 1 other like this

You cannot succeed without hate for your enemy


#29 Mike Sixel

Mike Sixel

    Now living in Oregon

  • Member
  • 30,796 posts

Posted 03 November 2019 - 11:45 AM

Chapman just agreed to effectively three years, 48 million. I'm guessing Odo is worth more than that....

Waiting until the perfect moment to acquire players means they may not be available at that time.....
  • Sconnie, D.C Twins and Battle ur tail off like this

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#30 gman

gman

    Cedar Rapids Kernels

  • Member
  • 232 posts

Posted 03 November 2019 - 04:16 PM

Most years signing 3 of the top 20 free agent pitchers would make most people excited. Based on history its probably not good enough but who really knows what will happen next year. I would be happy with adding Wheeler and Bumgarner to Odorrizi then leaving the number 5 to rookie pitchers.

  • birdwatcher, Mike Sixel, SF Twins Fan and 1 other like this

#31 Twodogs

Twodogs

    Rochester Red Wings

  • Member
  • 1,006 posts

Posted 03 November 2019 - 07:50 PM

Chapman just agreed to effectively three years, 48 million. I'm guessing Odo is worth more than that....

Waiting until the perfect moment to acquire players means they may not be available at that time.....


IDK, it's a tough call, I mean on one hand Odorizzi does get a lot of swings and misses but he rarely goes past 5 innings and they have had to pull him in the 4th a few times due to pitch counts, even with the lead? So I mean even if he pitches decently he is still a drag on our bullpen. Whereas Chapman has been a lights out closer most of his career. I am assuming he will be once again next year. Not sure beyond that. But I mean even with the same numbers if Odo averaged between 6 and 7 innings per start then yeah he'd be worth a lot. But 5 inning guys, I just don't know.
  • goulik likes this

You cannot succeed without hate for your enemy


#32 goulik

goulik

    Kernel of truth

  • Member
  • 1,773 posts
  • LocationElko

Posted 04 November 2019 - 05:22 AM

Gleeman on the Gleeman and the Geek podcast pointed out that a qualifying offer to Pineda would be on a prorated salary because of the suspension meaning it would actually only be in the $13 million range so the Twins really should give 2 QO’s today. If they keep both guys in house for $31 million, they have plenty to throw at a top free agent with some left over. Now we’re replacing Gibson with a free agent and Perez with young guns? I’m in on that formula!
  • nicksaviking, DocBauer and Vanimal46 like this

#33 spycake

spycake

    Senior Member

  • Member
  • 16,962 posts

Posted 04 November 2019 - 09:10 AM

 

Gleeman on the Gleeman and the Geek podcast pointed out that a qualifying offer to Pineda would be on a prorated salary because of the suspension meaning it would actually only be in the $13 million range so the Twins really should give 2 QO’s today. If they keep both guys in house for $31 million, they have plenty to throw at a top free agent with some left over. Now we’re replacing Gibson with a free agent and Perez with young guns? I’m in on that formula!

I think it would be about $13.5 mil (39 games left on his suspension would cover the first 45 days of the 2020 season, out of a total 186 days, with $17.8 mil qualifying offer).

 

But we'd also be without his services until May 10th. Is that worth a guaranteed $13.5 mil? He couldn't play for anyone else until May 10th either, so that's going to depress his market this offseason. Maybe we'd be better off skipping the QO and just negotiating with him while his value is depressed -- we could get a lower rate, incentive structure, 2nd year/option, etc.

 

I have a feeling Pineda would readily accept the QO which suggests that maybe it isn't the best move for the team. But not making it would involve some risk too.


#34 spycake

spycake

    Senior Member

  • Member
  • 16,962 posts

Posted 04 November 2019 - 09:14 AM

FWIW, in the MLB qualifying offer preview, they lump Pineda in with Gibson and others as unlikely to receive one:

 

https://www.mlb.com/...tes-and-updates

 

 

 

There is also a pool of free agents who are technically eligible to receive qualifying offers, but are unlikely to get them for various reasons. Those include:

Astros: Will Harris (RHP), Wade Miley (LHP)
Blue Jays: Justin Smoak (1B)
Braves: Nick Markakis (OF), Julio Teheran (RHP) (club option)
Cubs: Cole Hamels (LHP), Ben Zobrist (2B)
Cardinals: Michael Wacha (RHP), Adam Wainwright (RHP)
Dodgers: Rich Hill (LHP)
Mets: Todd Frazier (3B)
Nationals: Brian Dozier (2B)
Pirates: Melky Cabrera (OF)
Rays: Avisaíl García (OF)
Red Sox: Rick Porcello (RHP)
Reds: José Iglesias (SS), Alex Wood (LHP)
Twins: Kyle Gibson (RHP), Michael Pineda (RHP)

Yankees: Dellin Betances (RHP), Brett Gardner (OF)
White Sox: Ivan Nova (RHP)

 


#35 HawksNest

HawksNest

    Ft Myers Miracle

  • Member
  • 313 posts

Posted 04 November 2019 - 10:03 AM

Here's what I'd try and do:

  • Wheeler for 4/84 ($21 AAV).I'd want to make sure his shoulder checks out before putting pen to paper but assuming everything is good, I'd be ecstatic to sign him. Think he has phenomenal stuff and has really improved each year. Get Wes Johnson and Derek Falvey's hands on him and I think he becomes a borderline ace.
  • Re-sign Odo for 3/45 ($15 AAV)
  • Call Texas and see what it would take to acquire Mike Minor. I'd be willing to put together a package of prospects excluding Lewis or Kiriloff. Minor is on the last year of his deal and set to make $9.5 million this coming season.

1. Berrios

2. Wheeler

3. Minor

4. Odo

5. Smeltzer/Dobnak/Thorpe

 

That's a very, very, solid rotation with legitimate upside and room for growth with Berrios and Wheeler at the top. 

  • birdwatcher, nicksaviking, DocBauer and 1 other like this

#36 Tomj14

Tomj14

    Pensacola Blue Wahoos

  • Member
  • 895 posts

Posted 04 November 2019 - 10:14 AM

 

They pay taxes based on where games are played, so we are looking at around 1.5MM, give or take, in tax differences between MN and TX, for a 30MM contract. That's not money to be ignored, but it's probably not the deciding factor. Given the number of players in MLB and the NBA that sign in NY and CA, I'm guessing taxes are not the main factor.

 

*those are SUPER ROUGH estimates......but I took the highest MN rate, divided by 2, and multiplied by 30MM.....

that is 1.5 a year, so the real cost of is closer to 10 over the contract, which means MN has to be at least 10 million higher than Texas.

  • SF Twins Fan likes this

#37 DocBauer

DocBauer

    Senior Member

  • Member
  • 5,774 posts

Posted 04 November 2019 - 10:55 AM

I don't think the dual QO will happen, but it makes a lot of sense. You overpay slightly for each guy this season, but keep even more flexibility for extensions, FA, trades and internal development/promotion.

However, you also end up going in to 2021 with 2 potential holes again vs more of a sure thing under contract. But I think it's a very interesting idea with merit.
"Nice catch Hayes...don't ever f*****g do it again."

--Lou Brown


#38 lukeduke1980

lukeduke1980

    Ft Myers Miracle

  • Member
  • 465 posts

Posted 04 November 2019 - 11:06 AM

I'll be pleasantly surprised for an add of Rick Porcello, along with Odorizzi, Pineda.  


#39 Mike Sixel

Mike Sixel

    Now living in Oregon

  • Member
  • 30,796 posts

Posted 04 November 2019 - 11:10 AM

Fangraphs predicts Odo for three years, thirteen to fifteen million per....I predict a one year QO deal

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#40 Musk21

Musk21

    Senior Member

  • Member
  • 323 posts

Posted 04 November 2019 - 11:33 AM

I know he turned down an extension last Feb/Mar, but a top priority for Twins should be to find a way to sign Berrios to a long-term deal.