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Free Agent Pitching

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#1 denarded

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Posted 01 November 2019 - 08:48 AM

Gleeman on The Athletic ranked the top 20 Free Agent Pitchers. Odorizzi at 6 (behind Hyun-Jin Ryu, Age 33) Pineda at 8 and Gibson at 13. Granted, that's his take, but that doesn't leave much to improve with what is potentially in-house. I just don't see a Cole/Straussberg/Bumgardner in our price range.Is Wheeler our best bet?

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#2 Vanimal46

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Posted 01 November 2019 - 09:56 AM

Cole is going to get 7, maybe 8 years. The Twins will never offer that many years for a pitcher.

Strasburg may "opt-out", but I feel pretty confident he is remaining with Washington.

Bumgarner and Wheeler are my top priorities. Get one of them at least, re-sign Odorizzi and Pineda. Find a project or 2, and they should be okay for the rotation.
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#3 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 01 November 2019 - 10:02 AM

 

Cole is going to get 7, maybe 8 years. The Twins will never offer that many years for a pitcher.

Strasburg may "opt-out", but I feel pretty confident he is remaining with Washington.

Bumgarner and Wheeler are my top priorities. Get one of them at least, re-sign Odorizzi and Pineda. Find a project or 2, and they should be okay for the rotation.

 

Given the way the market played out the last few years, I wouldn't assume he gets a 7 year deal. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he only gets 5 or 6.

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#4 Vanimal46

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Posted 01 November 2019 - 10:11 AM

Given the way the market played out the last few years, I wouldn't assume he gets a 7 year deal. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he only gets 5 or 6.


Maybe. Since he's a Boras client I'm sure he will sit on his epic season results until the demands are met.

#5 akmanak

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Posted 01 November 2019 - 10:12 AM

I would also assume the Twins spend very little yet again this season. They will use Washington as an example on why not to blow a bunch of money on pitching.

#6 Vanimal46

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Posted 01 November 2019 - 10:34 AM

I would also assume the Twins spend very little yet again this season. They will use Washington as an example on why not to blow a bunch of money on pitching.


That would be a terrible example because Washington spent $77.8 million on their top 3 pitchers in 2019.
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#7 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 01 November 2019 - 11:12 AM

 

That would be a terrible example because Washington spent $77.8 million on their top 3 pitchers in 2019.

 

that and the Twins could conceivably have about 70M to spend after their arb totals are met... There's no reason they cannot put the payroll in the 140M range given how they played this season and the open window in the central. 

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#8 DocBauer

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Posted 01 November 2019 - 01:17 PM

I would pay $30M for Cole. I might even spend a little more. I might go 5yrs, probably have to. I might even go 6, especially if I could front load a little bit.

But $40+M and 7 or 8 years, etc, I'm just out. No matter how good he is, nobody is worth that kind of contract, IMO. No matter how good he is, he still plays every 5 days. And that's not a shot at him, it's just a reality.

It's still a team sport. Remember a few years ago when King Felix had such a phenomenal year with Seattle he won the Cy Young with a losing record on a team with a losing record?

I'm not about NOT spending or NOT trading, I just want to be smart about it and have the deepest, strongest, contending team I can have. For now, and for as many years as possible
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#9 LA VIkes Fan

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Posted 01 November 2019 - 02:27 PM

I agree with Vanimal on the blueprint. Sign Wheeler or Bumgarner, both if possible, add Pineda and Odorizzi and you have a pretty good rotation with Berrios. It's hard to see doing better.

 

I'm not dreaming of Cole because I think we have zero chance of getting him. He's going to get his $$ no matter where he goes. He loves Houston, and is from SoCal and loves it here too. He will be on the Astros, Dodgers or Angels next year (with a small chance of the Padres) unless another team goes crazy on the $$ or years. I just don't see the Twins as that team. The great like about being Cole is he actually gets to pick where he wants to play/live knowing that he doesn't have to leave money on the table to get his preferred lifestyle or please his family. Not meany guys get that chance. He'll take advantage of that opportunity and go where he wants to live. No offense, but there's nothing to suggest that's anywhere other than SoCal or maybe Houston, not Minnesota. 

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#10 FlauerPauer

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Posted 01 November 2019 - 04:39 PM

 

I would also assume the Twins spend very little yet again this season. They will use Washington as an example on why not to blow a bunch of money on pitching.

 

That's fine to not spend a ton of money, but it would not be fine to not spend the "prospect money" the Twins possess to upgrade the rotation.

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#11 beckmt

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Posted 01 November 2019 - 04:59 PM

I think that getting Cole might be possible.If the Twins started at 7/240, that would make if difficult for the Yankees and Dodgers to get in without have significant luxery tax implications.I agree a second liner is more likely, but would like to see the Twins go large. 

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#12 Thrylos

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Posted 01 November 2019 - 05:47 PM

The Twins have to explore trades as well, before their prospects lose value...

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#13 Twodogs

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Posted 02 November 2019 - 08:59 AM

If Cole stays in Houston, I don't believe that Texas has much on an income tax hit? I wonder if players think about that much when they decide who to play for and they are signing big contracts? I know Minnesota is quite high like maybe in the top 5 or 6 heaviest taxed states?
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#14 Mike Sixel

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Posted 02 November 2019 - 12:10 PM

 

If Cole stays in Houston, I don't believe that Texas has much on an income tax hit? I wonder if players think about that much when they decide who to play for and they are signing big contracts? I know Minnesota is quite high like maybe in the top 5 or 6 heaviest taxed states?

 

They pay taxes based on where games are played, so we are looking at around 1.5MM, give or take, in tax differences between MN and TX, for a 30MM contract. That's not money to be ignored, but it's probably not the deciding factor. Given the number of players in MLB and the NBA that sign in NY and CA, I'm guessing taxes are not the main factor.

 

*those are SUPER ROUGH estimates......but I took the highest MN rate, divided by 2, and multiplied by 30MM.....

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#15 Post-Concussive Blues

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Posted 02 November 2019 - 01:32 PM

If Cole stays in Houston, I don't believe that Texas has much on an income tax hit? I wonder if players think about that much when they decide who to play for and they are signing big contracts? I know Minnesota is quite high like maybe in the top 5 or 6 heaviest taxed states?


Players pay state income tax wherever the game is played, on top of federal taxes. So 50% Minnesota, 50% other locations. This does have large financial implications. The classic example was the 2012 Marlins - Blue Jays trade where players went from 0% state income tax in Florida to high taxes in Ontario.

This is a brief, interesting article on the subject:

https://www.forbes.c...r-pro-athletes/
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#16 The Wise One

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Posted 02 November 2019 - 03:27 PM

The couple of early post season rankings had Odorizi as around the sixth best pitcher, Pineda not too far behind. Free agent pitching is not like going down to the Super store center and everyone can find a decent pitcher. Supply and demand will work to drive the price up. Sanity will keep the years down, Boras be damned. Just ask Keuchel last year and Lynn the year before. 

On the other hand, the dollar variety pitchers should be a dime a dozen. Who will find the Mike Fiers from the scrap heap pool? 


#17 TopGunn#22

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Posted 02 November 2019 - 04:16 PM

I agree with beckmt, the Twins should go hard right out of the gate at 7 yrs/240 million.They can afford this to get one of the top 2-3 pitchers in the game and it puts pressure on the Dodgers and the Yanks with the luxury tax.The Twins are uniquely positioned to do this.Their core is young and affordable.They have Cruz for one more year and he will probably produce far beyond his contract.All thru the Johan Santana, Mauer, Morneau etc... years they NEVER did this.It's time to FINALLY step up and make some noise.They could go 7/240 million for Cole and STILL afford to make a play for Wheeler.(Cole, Berrios, Odorizzi, Wheeler and then Dobnak) would be pretty awesome.*The Twins make a QO to Odorizzi and retain him.They could also trade Rosario for a SP because I believe a stop gap LF'er like Av. Garcia can hold down the fort until either Larnach or Kiriloff hits the big leagues and makes us forgot all about Eddie.Get a stud like Cole to lead your staff.Continue to develop Berrios and keep an eye on Graterol and Balazovic and the Twins could be a formidable team for many, many years.But for goodness sake Ownership/Front Office...step up to the plate and SWING BIG for once !!!

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#18 DocBauer

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Posted 02 November 2019 - 05:16 PM

I think that getting Cole might be possible. If the Twins started at 7/240, that would make if difficult for the Yankees and Dodgers to get in without have significant luxery tax implications. I agree a second liner is more likely, but would like to see the Twins go large.


NOT disagreeing with you a bit. And I'm not saying annual value is wrong. But are you really comfortable paying that much, for that long, for a guy who pitches every 5th day...no matter how good...knowing his last couple of years will probably be mediocre? And don't the Twins also have to think about sustainability and future signings for guys on hand?

Assuming the Twins offered this, and assuming he would agree and want to play here vs Houston or return home to CA, I'd feel more comfortable if we could front load the deal the first few years for flexibility.

How about an opt out after 3yrs written in?
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#19 wyowib

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Posted 02 November 2019 - 06:33 PM

 

I agree with beckmt, the Twins should go hard right out of the gate at 7 yrs/240 million.They can afford this to get one of the top 2-3 pitchers in the game and it puts pressure on the Dodgers and the Yanks with the luxury tax.The Twins are uniquely positioned to do this.Their core is young and affordable.They have Cruz for one more year and he will probably produce far beyond his contract.All thru the Johan Santana, Mauer, Morneau etc... years they NEVER did this.It's time to FINALLY step up and make some noise.They could go 7/240 million for Cole and STILL afford to make a play for Wheeler.(Cole, Berrios, Odorizzi, Wheeler and then Dobnak) would be pretty awesome.*The Twins make a QO to Odorizzi and retain him.They could also trade Rosario for a SP because I believe a stop gap LF'er like Av. Garcia can hold down the fort until either Larnach or Kiriloff hits the big leagues and makes us forgot all about Eddie.Get a stud like Cole to lead your staff.Continue to develop Berrios and keep an eye on Graterol and Balazovic and the Twins could be a formidable team for many, many years.But for goodness sake Ownership/Front Office...step up to the plate and SWING BIG for once !!!

The Angels will beat any offer any team presents (dollars, years, geographic location...).They have financial flexibility, made and won the play for Ohtani, and don't want to waste having Trout.The Twins should focus free agency on building a solid core (Odor and Pineda); with the hope that they pull the trigger on the over the top trade.It's the reality of being a fan of non-large market team.  


#20 beckmt

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Posted 02 November 2019 - 08:40 PM

 

NOT disagreeing with you a bit. And I'm not saying annual value is wrong. But are you really comfortable paying that much, for that long, for a guy who pitches every 5th day...no matter how good...knowing his last couple of years will probably be mediocre? And don't the Twins also have to think about sustainability and future signings for guys on hand?

Assuming the Twins offered this, and assuming he would agree and want to play here vs Houston or return home to CA, I'd feel more comfortable if we could front load the deal the first few years for flexibility.

How about an opt out after 3yrs written in?

Could see and opt out after 3 years and after 4 years,would need at least 3 to make it worthwhile.Cole I believe is only 29 so should have 3 - 4 good years ahead(baring injury and normal Twins luck).