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Front Page: Maybe the Twins Should Go All in On Anthony Rendon

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#41 spycake

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Posted 01 November 2019 - 04:28 PM

 

Most readers here don't really give a whit about farm system rankings, and I get that. I just disagree, in large part because I believe the landscape has been drastically altered in a way that favors teams that can avoid straining themselves financially or bumping up against their league-imposed salary threshhold while simultaneously maintaining trade value in both their major and minor league systems.

What's the evidence of that drastic landscape alteration, at this point? It doesn't seem apparent in playoff results so far...

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#42 FlauerPauer

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Posted 01 November 2019 - 04:31 PM

In terms of contract, it's probably a safer bet to put a 7 year contract out to a position player rather than a pitcher, but it just doesn't seem like many of those long term contracts work out favorably. I'd rather go high dollar, less years. Offer both 5 yrs/200 mil and see who says yes first. Hey, it's not my money.

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#43 FlauerPauer

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Posted 01 November 2019 - 04:37 PM

 

 you can't say the price wasn't steep.

 

I'd give up all the top prospects the Twins have for a World Series Championship.


#44 birdwatcher

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Posted 01 November 2019 - 05:18 PM

 

How well is not making a big move working out? that also carries risk.....

 

I'd 100% rather see the Twins make moves like Cole, Verlander, Greinke, than Perez. Odo was a good trade, but good luck repeating that.

 

Are we supposed to acknowledge that in every post we make? 

 

 

 

I know this is redundant as all get out, but our FO believes in windows, remember? While I have some skepticism about thinking this way, I can't say they're wrong in assessing that last season was prying it open and now they feel the breeze (their own description, which was followed by the first promise we've heard from them to go after a spendy target. 

 

I don't expect you to acknowledge THIS in every post you make, but perhaps it would help not to ignore it?

 

They just went from 78 to 101 wins. I'm going to wait to complaint about what they don't do until AFTER they don't do it, not before.;)

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#45 Mike Sixel

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Posted 01 November 2019 - 05:38 PM

 

I know this is redundant as all get out, but our FO believes in windows, remember? While I have some skepticism about thinking this way, I can't say they're wrong in assessing that last season was prying it open and now they feel the breeze (their own description, which was followed by the first promise we've heard from them to go after a spendy target. 

 

I don't expect you to acknowledge THIS in every post you make, but perhaps it would help not to ignore it?

 

They just went from 78 to 101 wins. I'm going to wait to complaint about what they don't do until AFTER they don't do it, not before.;)

 

Of course, none of that has a whit to do with my post.......You said that signing players has risk and no one ever mentions that. Not signing players also has risk, and that is rarely mentioned. 

 

Now is the time, we'll see what happens. 

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It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#46 birdwatcher

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Posted 01 November 2019 - 08:51 PM

 

What's the evidence of that drastic landscape alteration, at this point? It doesn't seem apparent in playoff results so far...

 

 

You more than most are familiar with what I regard as the main events which are drastically changing the competitive landscape, because you're a student of the game.

 

The things I think are profoundly changing the landscape mostly relate to two things. The first is the ongoing and desperate efforts by the industry to create some sort of competitive and financial parity. Examples include revenue-sharing, penalties, taxes and imposed limits on spending such as bonus pools, industry lobbying for public assistance in building stadiums, etc. This struggle has been going on for three decades now.

 

The second is the widespread information now available and the explosion of observation technologies and opportunities. No future superstar is a surprise these days. Think of all the changes that turned Terry Ryan into a dinosaur and converted guys like Shapiro into front office superstars.

 

The playing field has been leveled when it comes to the evaluation of new talent and its acquisition. No one's kicking anyone else's butts in the draft room these days, and, since the IFA cheating was stopped, no one is outspending to gain an advantage. Even the new observation technologies are pretty much a requirement now. That's why guys like Falvey are so focused on trying to gain some sort of edge in coaching and development areas like nutrition, preventive health, and injury prevention. 

 

I may be wrong, but my intuition is that things are slowly circling around to where teams that are opportunistic, active, and adroit traders will create an advantage for themselves. You either do that, or you tank for awhile to take advantage of those past parity initiatives such as draft order and larger bonus allottments.

Edited by birdwatcher, 01 November 2019 - 09:07 PM.

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#47 DocBauer

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Posted 01 November 2019 - 09:07 PM

There is risk in ANY move you make, whether it be a FA signing, a trade, or even a draft selection. You try to mitigate said risk by simply being smarter...sometimes lucky...and attempting to balance risk/reward in all situations. Back to the original OP. I get it. But I don't get it. This a GOOD team. There are holes to be filled. There are ways to fill those holes. Rendon is a really good baseball player. But you are trying to say he would be a difference maker to push the Twins over the top with a big contract if they swing and miss on pitching? Sorry, I want the defense to improve as much as anyone. But I would put my chips all in on pitching, re-signs, FA, trades vs continued improvement/development from Sano, Polanco and Arraez before I'd sign a position player, no matter how good, who's offense might be replicated by the guy you want to replace him with. Isn't Moose also a FA, or am I mistaken? If the Twins really want to move Sano to 1B, which it doesn't appear they want to do at this time, does he suddenly become a more elite talent There? No to Rendon. Let's focus on what we have, make some smart moves in the pitching area and rock and roll! It almost feels, at times, that some feel we are coming off a 101 loss season vs a 101 win season.
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#48 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 01 November 2019 - 09:30 PM

I may be wrong, but my intuition is that things are slowly circling around to where teams that are opportunistic, active, and adroit traders will create an advantage for themselves.

As always I appreciate your opinion, but if true, then the Twins will have a very brief window to capitalize on their advantage before other teams catch up. Maybe the Twins will then be enjoying their next innovation ahead of the other teams, and stay one step ahead, but maybe not.
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#49 birdwatcher

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Posted 01 November 2019 - 09:36 PM

 

Of course, none of that has a whit to do with my post.......You said that signing players has risk and no one ever mentions that. Not signing players also has risk, and that is rarely mentioned. 

 

Now is the time, we'll see what happens. 

To clarify, I'm entertained with how often people ignore the possibility that a major signing they want may not result in that WS banner. The whole "if we sign Cole, then we will win the WS" simplicity.

 

I'll grant that little gets said here on TD about the risk to the organization of not doing enough. Ryan got fired because he didn't do enough. Even Jim Pohlad implied that Ryan didn't spend enough. It wasn't lost on Falvey or Jim Pohlad that going from 78 to 101 made turnstiles spin faster. But you're right we don't talk much about not signing players from the standpoint of the organizational risk of lost revenues. That's a harder calculation for us to make and discuss.

 

 

Edited by birdwatcher, 01 November 2019 - 09:57 PM.

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#50 birdwatcher

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Posted 01 November 2019 - 09:52 PM

 

As always I appreciate your opinion, but if true, then the Twins will have a very brief window to capitalize on their advantage before other teams catch up. Maybe the Twins will then be enjoying their next innovation ahead of the other teams, and stay one step ahead, but maybe not.

 

Yeah, I think they'll struggle to stay a step ahead, because draft order changes things quickly. For example, if FanGraphs is right, after the last two draft classes, Detroit vaulted to #8 from about #23.

 

We'll see, but my hunch is that the better organizations will become aggressive and active traders in an attempt to capitalize on what they've learned about investor psychology and about negotiating from a position of greater psychological leverage. Things like selling into the trade deadline to take advantage of a trading partner's urgency. It's maybe one of the few opportunities left to gain an advantage if you're winning on a regular basis.

 

But again, being active and opportunistic is a lot easier if you have some free cash and have built up surplus player assets at both levels rather than doing the whole boom and bust of good MLB, bad farm system or the opposite.

Edited by birdwatcher, 01 November 2019 - 09:55 PM.

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#51 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 01 November 2019 - 11:47 PM

 

I may be wrong, but my intuition is that things are slowly circling around to where teams that are opportunistic, active, and adroit traders will create an advantage for themselves.

You're not wrong.


#52 birdwatcher

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Posted 02 November 2019 - 08:01 AM

 

I'd give up all the top prospects the Twins have for a World Series Championship.

 

Understandable, but it doesn't work that way, right?

 

So, giving up Lewis, Kirilloff, Graterol, and Larnach for whatever they would fetch might...MIGHT...convince the oddsmakers to make the team what, 3/1 favorites?

 

Houston kept Correa and Bregman.


#53 terrydactyls1947

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Posted 02 November 2019 - 08:10 AM

Sign Tendon!!! It's always better to win 14-7 than to win 12-7. And then still lose in the playoffs because the opponents have superior pitching.

#54 terrydactyls1947

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Posted 02 November 2019 - 08:12 AM

I'd give up all the top prospects the Twins have for a World Series Championship.


And then another decade of futility and frustration, and complaining by Twins Daily posters about the stupid front office.
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#55 Badsmerf

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Posted 02 November 2019 - 09:27 PM

I thought this was gong to be about Anthony LaPanta. I mean... Totino Grace kid, great smile, great hair; can't go wrong. Twins should absolutely go all in on that guy.
Do or do not. There is no try.

#56 insagt1

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Posted 03 November 2019 - 08:08 PM

 

To clarify, I'm entertained with how often people ignore the possibility that a major signing they want may not result in that WS banner. The whole "if we sign Cole, then we will win the WS" simplicity.

 

I'll grant that little gets said here on TD about the risk to the organization of not doing enough. Ryan got fired because he didn't do enough. Even Jim Pohlad implied that Ryan didn't spend enough. It wasn't lost on Falvey or Jim Pohlad that going from 78 to 101 made turnstiles spin faster. But you're right we don't talk much about not signing players from the standpoint of the organizational risk of lost revenues. That's a harder calculation for us to make and discuss.

first para, very true. Padres overspent by a TON for a couple of FA's last year and instead of improving, they actually got worse. They will live to regret giving Machado such a ridiculous contract. After the ASG, he totally lost interest and the results bear this out.


#57 ChrisKnutson

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Posted 03 November 2019 - 09:06 PM

Why complicate things with a Rendon signing? Our main priority should be our entire pitching staff, especially the rotation. If FO really wants to improve a home run record setting lineup, perhaps they should look into making a deal with Cleveland for Carlos Santana since we got an opening at 1B.

#58 Mike Sixel

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Posted 03 November 2019 - 10:52 PM

first para, very true. Padres overspent by a TON for a couple of FA's last year and instead of improving, they actually got worse. They will live to regret giving Machado such a ridiculous contract. After the ASG, he totally lost interest and the results bear this out.


Machado is signed for a lot of years. The Padres went young last year. I really don't get this post

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#59 Tomj14

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Posted 04 November 2019 - 08:20 AM

 

Understandable, but it doesn't work that way, right?

 

So, giving up Lewis, Kirilloff, Graterol, and Larnach for whatever they would fetch might...MIGHT...convince the oddsmakers to make the team what, 3/1 favorites?

 

Houston kept Correa and Bregman.

To be fair Correa had a WAR of 4.3 at age 20 in the majors and Bergman 1.8 at 22. Which could happen with Lewis (not likely) and Alex (very possible) this year and if it does it goes to show they need to spend on pitching ASAP.


#60 insagt1

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Posted 04 November 2019 - 05:32 PM

 

Machado is signed for a lot of years. The Padres went young last year. I really don't get this post

what exactly don't you get? Machado got a contract the Padres will never fully benefit from. Their signings I 'm pretty sure were not to basically have a rebuilding 2019 season. Machado has talent, but he didn't contribute much. Remains to be seen how he does in the future.