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Front Page: Maybe the Twins Should Go All in On Anthony Rendon

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#21 Number3

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Posted 01 November 2019 - 08:06 AM

 

I didn't know Rendon was a pitcher!

If he was, he would be the next Walter Johnson the way he slings it from 3B. This thread is a non starter for 2 reasons. Twins should not even consider going after Rendon and Rendon would not consider playing for the Twins. Other than that, go for it. What the Twins don't need is 1 or 2 players making as much as the rest of the team combined as was the case in the #7 era. One thing that made the Nats so special this year was no one or 2 players dominating the lineup and no one except Scherzer (sp) on huge long term contracts. Scherzer is the rare breed who got the contract and then went out and grunted and groaned and earned every bit of it.


#22 Tomj14

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Posted 01 November 2019 - 08:11 AM

 

If he was, he would be the next Walter Johnson the way he slings it from 3B. This thread is a non starter for 2 reasons. Twins should not even consider going after Rendon and Rendon would not consider playing for the Twins. Other than that, go for it. What the Twins don't need is 1 or 2 players making as much as the rest of the team combined as was the case in the #7 era. One thing that made the Nats so special this year was no one or 2 players dominating the lineup and no one except Scherzer (sp) on huge long term contracts. Scherzer is the rare breed who got the contract and then went out and grunted and groaned and earned every bit of it.

Strasburg 7-year, $175 million

Corbin 6-year, $140 million.

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#23 tarheeltwinsfan

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Posted 01 November 2019 - 08:20 AM

Forgive me if I don't jump on the Rendon band wagon.His price may be inflated due to his recent post season performance. The main reason I object to going after Rendon though is that AFL MVP Royce Lewis is on his way to 3B, possibly as soon as September 2020, or Lewis will go to to SS if there is an injury to Polanco, or to SS or 2B if Arraez is injured. Or if Sano is injured, to 3B..That would improve IF defense, give the Twinkies mas POSITIVE energy and a singles, doubles hitter, plus some much needed speed on the bases. Lewis was #1 for a reason. Now is the time to start, what Humphrey Bogart stated at the end of the movie, Casa Blanca: "Louis (Lewis), I think this is the beginning of a beautiful friendship".

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#24 brvama

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Posted 01 November 2019 - 08:42 AM

Good point tarheeltwinsfan. We also have Travis Blankenhorn, while not A top prospect, who has seemed to turn the corner with his bat in AA, as a 1B-3B. He could be up before Lewis.


#25 birdwatcher

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Posted 01 November 2019 - 10:39 AM

 

If he was, he would be the next Walter Johnson the way he slings it from 3B. This thread is a non starter for 2 reasons. Twins should not even consider going after Rendon and Rendon would not consider playing for the Twins. Other than that, go for it. What the Twins don't need is 1 or 2 players making as much as the rest of the team combined as was the case in the #7 era. One thing that made the Nats so special this year was no one or 2 players dominating the lineup and no one except Scherzer (sp) on huge long term contracts. Scherzer is the rare breed who got the contract and then went out and grunted and groaned and earned every bit of it.

 

Yeah, the Nats have done a good job of benefitting from a position player lineup that's given them astounding production from a combination of cheap young guys like Soto, Robles, Turner, and Rendon, and cheap old guys like Kendricks and Suzuki, plus discards like Cabrera and Gomes.

 

But they haven't gone cheap, in either cash outlays or prospect payments, when it comes to pitching.

 

The Nats have committed to contracts totaling $545M for Scherzer, Strasburg, Corbin, and Sanchez. Granted, they only have two years left on Scherzer's 7 year $240M deal, Strasburg may or may not let them off the hook for the next 4 years at $25M per, Corbins deal is about $25M for another 5 years I think, and Sanchez is "cheap" at $10M for one more year I think.

 

They have given up a ton of future pitching value, that's for sure. Doolittle cost them Jesus Luzardo, ranked #23 in all of baseball as a prospect and now in MLB, and Blake Treinen, an all-star relief pitcher last year. Adam Eaton cost them ace pitcher Lucas Giolito plus Reynaldo Lopez and Dane Dunning, a 29th overall pick who the Twins would probably swap in a heartbeat for Balazovic. All three of these guys might be in the White Sox' rotation together in 2020 and be better than average.

 

They won because of Scherzer, Corbin, and Strasburg, no doubt, and Eaton and Doolittle were contributors. Good for them, but you can't say the price wasn't steep.

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#26 Vanimal46

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Posted 01 November 2019 - 10:41 AM

Yeah, the Nats have done a good job of benefitting from a position player lineup that's given them astounding production from a combination of cheap young guys like Soto, Robles, Turner, and Rendon, and cheap old guys like Kendricks and Suzuki, plus discards like Cabrera and Gomes.

But they haven't gone cheap, in either cash outlays or prospect payments, when it comes to pitching.

The Nats have committed to contracts totaling $545M for Scherzer, Strasburg, Corbin, and Sanchez. Granted, they only have two years left on Scherzer's 7 year $240M deal, Strasburg may or may not let them off the hook for the next 4 years at $25M per, Corbins deal is about $25M for another 5 years I think, and Sanchez is "cheap" at $10M for one more year I think.

They have given up a ton of future pitching value, that's for sure. Doolittle cost them Jesus Luzardo, ranked #23 in all of baseball as a prospect and now in MLB, and Blake Treinen, an all-star relief pitcher last year. Adam Eaton cost them ace pitcher Lucas Giolito plus Reynaldo Lopez and Dane Dunning, a 29th overall pick who the Twins would probably swap in a heartbeat for Balazovic. All three of these guys might be in the White Sox' rotation together in 2020 and be better than average.

They won because of Scherzer, Corbin, and Strasburg, no doubt, and Eaton and Doolittle were contributors. Good for them, but you can't say the price wasn't steep.


If that's the price to pay to get a WS title I do that 10 times out of 10.
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#27 awinter

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Posted 01 November 2019 - 11:13 AM

IF the Twins decided to go all in, this is a great move to make. Adding Rendon to the lineup could make the Twins the best lineup in baseball. Not only that, but filling a positional need through free agency allows the team to trade away some of their top prospects to acquire pitching talent. 

 

On the flip side of this, If the Twins are not going to upgrade their pitching through trade, don't make this move. 


#28 Tomj14

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Posted 01 November 2019 - 12:30 PM

 

If that's the price to pay to get a WS title I do that 10 times out of 10.

It seems people want the Twins to be the next Royals, Astros, Nats, until they realize all of those teams did more than call up their prospects. The price to get great players isn't cheap (either with prospects or Cash), thus winning the world series comes with a cost.


#29 birdwatcher

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Posted 01 November 2019 - 01:28 PM

 

If that's the price to pay to get a WS title I do that 10 times out of 10.

 

 

Well, sure you would, if you knew you'd get that WS title X out of 10 times.

 

The question is, what's your X number? You're rolling dice, not buying a pennant, right?

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#30 Mike Sixel

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Posted 01 November 2019 - 01:36 PM

 

So you want to spend over 25-30% of the payroll on just 1 player?

 

That's also why Rosario is on the trading block. Poor defense and with the juiced ball we should have expected more output as well.Fan favorite for sure, but not worth 9M+ a year.

 

Pay 5 players 15M a year and that account to 75M. Then with payroll usually around 130M that doesn't leave much for the other 21 players.

 

Twins need to hold onto a few of these players but it also would not hurt to pull a Tampa and trade some off and reload.

 

Tampa doesn't have three holes in its starting pitching, nor does it have obvious defensive holes. The Twins also have around 60-70 million in payroll space, just to get back to last year's total. 

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It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#31 darin617

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Posted 01 November 2019 - 01:52 PM

 

Tampa doesn't have three holes in its starting pitching, nor does it have obvious defensive holes. The Twins also have around 60-70 million in payroll space, just to get back to last year's total. 

Exactly, Tampa seems to be a very well ran organization. They bring them up early, get their use out of them and flip them for prospects to keep the cycle going. Imagine if Tampa had even a 100M payroll to work with.

 

I know not every trade works out, the Twins need a trade like what Tampa got for Chris Archer. If Jose Berrios is not interested in a long term deal flip him when he has 2 years left of control for a haul.


#32 birdwatcher

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Posted 01 November 2019 - 01:54 PM

 

It seems people want the Twins to be the next Royals, Astros, Nats, until they realize all of those teams did more than call up their prospects. The price to get great players isn't cheap (either with prospects or Cash), thus winning the world series comes with a cost.

 

 

And sometimes teams pay the cost and don't win it, right? Greinke almost, but didn't, push the Astro's over the top. Most of us would still call that acquisition both smart and risk-savvy, but it was still a risk. I'm constantly rather entertained with how many people argue for the big move with pretty much no acknowledgement whatsoever of the possibility that there may not be a victory parade resulting from it.

 

And I totally reject the notion that Falvey is relying exclusively on home grown talent. The facts dispute this. But it's also important to note that HOU and WSN got great production from a lot of players for whom they did not pay a price in prospects and cash in FA and trades.

 

The Twins were #4 in SI's Power Rankings most of the year. Personally, that felt generous, but the fact of the matter is they are a top 6 or 7 MLB team, a top 6 or 7 prospect pipeline team, and have more dry powder than all but the half-dozen perpetually wealthy and cash-rich franchises at the moment.

 

Most readers here don't really give a whit about farm system rankings, and I get that. I just disagree, in large part because I believe the landscape has been drastically altered in a way that favors teams that can avoid straining themselves financially or bumping up against their league-imposed salary threshhold while simultaneously maintaining trade value in both their major and minor league systems.

 

The teams you mentioned? FanGraphs ranks their farms systems this way: KCR 26, HOU 24, WSN 27. Oh, and BOS 30 out of 30. Some of these teams have financial issues related either to major contracts, poor revenues (KCR). WSN is the oldest team in the majors, I think. They have two Top 100 prospects, but that's one more than HOU, BOS, or KCR, and three less than the 101 win Twins.

Edited by birdwatcher, 01 November 2019 - 01:59 PM.

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#33 Mike Sixel

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Posted 01 November 2019 - 01:57 PM

 

And sometimes teams pay the cost and don't win it, right? Greinke almost, but didn't, push the Astro's over the top. Most of us would still call that acquisition both smart and risk-savvy, but it was still a risk. I'm constantly rather entertained with how many people argue for the big move with pretty much no acknowledgement whatsoever of the possibility that there may not be a victory parade resulting from it.

 

And I totally reject the notion that Falvey is relying exclusively on home grown talent. The facts dispute this. 

 

The Twins were #4 in SI's Power Rankings most of the year. Personally, that felt generous, but the fact of the matter is they are a top 6 or 7 MLB team, a top 6 or 7 prospect pipeline team, and have more dry powder than all but the half-dozen perpetually wealthy and cash-rich franchises at the moment.

 

Most readers here don't really give a whit about farm system rankings, and I get that. I just disagree, in large part because I believe the landscape has been drastically altered in a way that favors teams that can avoid straining themselves financially or bumping up against their league-imposed salary threshhold while simultaneously maintaining trade value in both their major and minor league systems.

 

The teams you mentioned? FanGraphs ranks their farms systems this way: KCR 26, HOU 24, WSN 27. Oh, and BOS 30 out of 30. Some of these teams have financial issues related either to major contracts, poor revenues (KCR). WSN is the oldest team in the majors, I think. They have two Top 100 prospects, but that's one more than HOU, BOS, or KCR, and three less than the 101 win Twins.

 

How well is not making a big move working out? that also carries risk.....

 

I'd 100% rather see the Twins make moves like Cole, Verlander, Greinke, than Perez. Odo was a good trade, but good luck repeating that.

 

Are we supposed to acknowledge that in every post we make? 

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#34 USAFChief

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Posted 01 November 2019 - 02:02 PM

 

And sometimes teams pay the cost and don't win it, right? Greinke almost, but didn't, push the Astro's over the top. Most of us would still call that acquisition both smart and risk-savvy, but it was still a risk. I'm constantly rather entertained with how many people argue for the big move with pretty much no acknowledgement whatsoever of the possibility that there may not be a victory parade resulting from it.

 

And I totally reject the notion that Falvey is relying exclusively on home grown talent. The facts dispute this. But it's also important to note that HOU and WSN got great production from a lot of players for whom they did not pay a price in prospects and cash in FA and trades.

 

The Twins were #4 in SI's Power Rankings most of the year. Personally, that felt generous, but the fact of the matter is they are a top 6 or 7 MLB team, a top 6 or 7 prospect pipeline team, and have more dry powder than all but the half-dozen perpetually wealthy and cash-rich franchises at the moment.

 

Most readers here don't really give a whit about farm system rankings, and I get that. I just disagree, in large part because I believe the landscape has been drastically altered in a way that favors teams that can avoid straining themselves financially or bumping up against their league-imposed salary threshhold while simultaneously maintaining trade value in both their major and minor league systems.

 

The teams you mentioned? FanGraphs ranks their farms systems this way: KCR 26, HOU 24, WSN 27. Oh, and BOS 30 out of 30. Some of these teams have financial issues related either to major contracts, poor revenues (KCR). WSN is the oldest team in the majors, I think. They have two Top 100 prospects, but that's one more than HOU, BOS, or KCR, and three less than the 101 win Twins.

Dry powder don't explode though.

 

At some point, you need to put that powder into the chamber and pull the trigger.

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#35 Tomj14

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Posted 01 November 2019 - 02:10 PM

 


The teams you mentioned? FanGraphs ranks their farms systems this way: KCR 26, HOU 24, WSN 27. Oh, and BOS 30 out of 30. Some of these teams have financial issues related either to major contracts, poor revenues (KCR). WSN is the oldest team in the majors, I think. They have two Top 100 prospects, but that's one more than HOU, BOS, or KCR, and three less than the 101 win Twins.

and yet, those teams have won 5 of the last 7 world series. And correct me if I am wrong, but the Twins have lost 15 playoff games in a row dating back to at least 2006.

You are 100% correct not all trades work and neither do all free agent signings, but looking at the history of who wins world series there does seem to be a theme in trading and signing great players.

Some people are happy with a good team that has a few decent years and a good power ranking with a highly ranked farm system. And some hope for more.

(I do understand what you are saying, I am just ready for the Twins to actually push some of their chips in a play with the big boys)

 

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#36 Vanimal46

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Posted 01 November 2019 - 02:13 PM

Well, sure you would, if you knew you'd get that WS title X out of 10 times.

The question is, what's your X number? You're rolling dice, not buying a pennant, right?


I think for mid-level revenue teams you gotta take your chance when you can. 2019 IMO would have been a good season to bite the bullet and take that chance. The core is young and cheap, almost everyone was healthy and producing beyond their typical norm.

I think it's really difficult, maybe even impossible now, for a team like the Twins to sustain 7-8 years of competitive play. That's why I prefer going for it when there's a window open and stars are aligned like it was in 2019.

I hope 2020 brings the same feelings... But you know that health and production are far from givens in baseball.
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#37 USAFChief

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Posted 01 November 2019 - 02:53 PM

 

I think for mid-level revenue teams you gotta take your chance when you can. 2019 IMO would have been a good season to bite the bullet and take that chance. The core is young and cheap, almost everyone was healthy and producing beyond their typical norm.

I think it's really difficult, maybe even impossible now, for a team like the Twins to sustain 7-8 years of competitive play. That's why I prefer going for it when there's a window open and stars are aligned like it was in 2019.

I hope 2020 brings the same feelings... But you know that health and production are far from givens in baseball.

http://www.startribu...pect/564227002/

 

The gambling wise-guys think the window is already closed, apparently.

Cutting my carbs...with a pizza slicer.


#38 ewen21

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Posted 01 November 2019 - 03:14 PM

 

No....we need not over complicate things....

 

The priorities are:

1. Playoff worthy starting pitching

2. Playoff worthy starting pitching

 

...and wait...what am I forgetting....oh yeah!

 

3. Playoff worthy starting pitching

Add to that someone who can teach Twins players how to hit during the post season

 

7 runs in 3 games 


#39 Thrylos

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Posted 01 November 2019 - 04:17 PM

Can he pitch?  

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#40 spycake

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Posted 01 November 2019 - 04:24 PM

 

They have given up a ton of future pitching value, that's for sure. Doolittle cost them Jesus Luzardo, ranked #23 in all of baseball as a prospect and now in MLB, and Blake Treinen, an all-star relief pitcher last year. Adam Eaton cost them ace pitcher Lucas Giolito plus Reynaldo Lopez and Dane Dunning, a 29th overall pick who the Twins would probably swap in a heartbeat for Balazovic. All three of these guys might be in the White Sox' rotation together in 2020 and be better than average.

 

They won because of Scherzer, Corbin, and Strasburg, no doubt, and Eaton and Doolittle were contributors. Good for them, but you can't say the price wasn't steep.

It was a steep price, but the alternative would have been steep in a way too -- Luzardo, Giolito, Lopez, and Dunning have all missed seasons / had awful seasons since leaving Washington. Their forecasts were a lot more variable / speculative than the players Washington took back, and perhaps most importantly, the players Washington already assembled.

 

Keeping those prospects may have offered more long-term individual player upside, but it also would have increased the risk of jeopardizing the investments Washington already made in Scherzer, Strasburg, Rendon, etc. Teams can't and shouldn't always prioritize 4 years from now ahead of the present.

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