Sure, every team will try to emulate that philosophy not trading their top prospect. The deal with prospects though is not knowing if the 13th best player on the list will end up with the best MLB career or not.
Arraez could have been thought of a throw in for a trade last year at this time because he was maybe 20th on the prospect list.
I get that thought, Van, but a couple of things come to mind.
The first is that a prospect who is 13th or 20th on Seth's or KLAW's prospect list is most likely in a different slot internally. Tampa thought Palacios was a top 20 guy and maybe the Twins thought he wasn't one of their top 40? We've heard snippets of opinions about Arraez from insiders that would make you wonder if some didn't hold the view that Seth and gang was grossly underrating him. I truly doubt Arraez was ever thought of less highly than Palacios by the Twin's own talent evaluators, and Palacios was not a throw in.
The second is that, while nothing is certain, uber elite prospects like Lewis and even Kirilloff are simply in a different class. We can point to so any examples of how, a majority of the time, these guys pan out and become superstar anchors of a franchise.
We know so much less about exactly how high a guy's ceiling is than they do. This isn't an appeal to authority. It's simply an acknowledgment that the Lindors, Moncada's, and Bett's out there usually do become studs.
There's a good reason to covet and hoard your truly elite prospects, a group you can almost always count on one hand with fingers left over. You can go back and look at any draft class, identify the small number of truly elite prospects, usually numbering from 1 to maybe 4 or 5, and see how few times one of them busted, injuries excepted. I just can't find fault with a FO that decides it has to improve the MLB roster another way than to part with Tatis, Jr., Eloy Jiminez, Gleyber Torrez, Yoan Moncada, Royce Lewis. Note that these are all position players, because who in their right mind would EVER let an Appel or an Aiken slip from their grasp?
Edited by birdwatcher, 18 October 2019 - 06:29 PM.