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#21 Sssuperdave

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Posted 16 October 2019 - 08:26 AM

So here's my thought process on Pineda:

 

1. Was he getting any actual on-field benefit from whatever banned substances he was taking? If he was, you've got to assume some performance regression next year.

 

2. What's the temperature in the clubhouse towards him? Are players bitter towards him or are they forgiving? Next year, would he be a good or a bad clubhouse influence?

 

Assuming the answer to #1 is that he wasn't getting any on-field benefit from the substances and assuming the answer to #2 is that the player are forgiving an he's a good clubhouse influence, then I think he is worth the QO. He's had enough flashes of effectiveness in his career that I think there's a good chance everything comes together for him and he posts an ERA in the low-to-mid 3's next year.

 

If the answer to those two questions I posed goes the other way, I don't give him the QO.

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#22 Jeremy Nygaard

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Posted 16 October 2019 - 08:27 AM

This is a no-brainer "yes" in my opinion. What's the worst-case scenario? He accepts and the Twins have a rotation piece locked in for $13,780,645? (My math: $17.8m / 186 calendar days x 144 (37 games and 5 off days means he'll be active for 144 days)). That amount of money certainly wouldn't hinder the Twins from making other moves and they'll know early about a second firm piece of their 2020 rotation. (Unlike this past year, the Twins will need a 5th starter during March and the early parts of April, so that is one downfall.)

 

After the way he pitched this season, there's going to be a market for him. And coming unglued from pick compensation in early-June, plus serving a suspension, and needing to "rehab," the signing team isn't getting more than a couple months of him next season.

 

So his choices are getting a multi-year deal and the signing team giving up a draft pick or taking $13 million and be free of the compensation when he hits the market after 2020 at age 31. This also seems like a no-brainer for Pineda.

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#23 spycake

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Posted 16 October 2019 - 08:32 AM

Although, assuming Pineda's suspension will suppress his market quite a bit on its own, would the Twins be better off trying to sign him for a similar amount *without* the QO? Then we'd have the option to QO him after 2020 instead, if his performance warrants it, of course. (Or we could leverage a second year option or something?)

 

Of course, Pineda might play hardball and try to draw the QO this offseason, so it would be off the table when he hits FA again next winter.

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#24 spycake

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Posted 16 October 2019 - 08:41 AM

 

After the way he pitched this season, there's going to be a market for him. And coming unglued from pick compensation in early-June, plus serving a suspension, and needing to "rehab," the signing team isn't getting more than a couple months of him next season.

Like I said upthread, I think Pineda will get suspension credit starting opening day, even if he doesn't sign a contract before then (see Cody Stanley, 2015-2016). So he could be active immediately upon signing in June, although he'd miss out on spring training and the 15 day minor league assignment which isn't insignificant.


#25 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 16 October 2019 - 08:42 AM

 

Although, assuming Pineda's suspension will suppress his market quite a bit on its own, would the Twins be better off trying to sign him for a similar amount *without* the QO? Then we'd have the option to QO him after 2020 instead, if his performance warrants it, of course. (Or we could leverage a second year option or something?)

 

Of course, Pineda might play hardball and try to draw the QO this offseason, so it would be off the table when he hits FA again next winter.

I could see him signing the lower offer with a guarantee in writing of no QO next season... if he really doesn't want it. 


#26 In My La-Z-boy

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Posted 16 October 2019 - 08:43 AM

Yes I hope they attempt to sign him - and I would give the QO if necessary. Playoffs this year prove what we all know. You cannot have enough quality pitching. Cannot. Love to see what the Nats did - after Harper. Pitching rules the day in October. 

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#27 howieramone2

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Posted 16 October 2019 - 08:46 AM

 

Basically, assuming they don't acquire three starters in addition to Pineda..... They will need to use Dobnak and another guy for seven to eight starts each.... Do people want the next best guy to make that many starts? It also guarantees Dobnak needs to make at least eight.... They can't skip him.

The situation is fluid. I have complete confidence in our FO.


#28 Dome Dogg

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Posted 16 October 2019 - 08:47 AM

Yes, by all means lets use a chunk of our scarce financial resources on an aging player with a long injury history coming off of a suspension! We can just count on his career-best 2019 season is the new normal, and give him a multi-year contract, just like Phil Hughes! 

 

Who's with me! 

 

Pineda was a nice story for part of the year, but unless he's willing to take a team-friendly deal (and really, why should he), we can move on. 

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#29 howieramone2

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Posted 16 October 2019 - 08:51 AM

 

Can he be trusted? He was hit with the PED bit this season, but was he not caught having pine tar on his neck when he was a Yankee? My memory is bad but that is what I am coming up with. If he is that rulebook challenged, what is next when the team really needs him?

I think pine tar is a gateway drug.


#30 spycake

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Posted 16 October 2019 - 08:53 AM

 

I could see him signing the lower offer with a guarantee in writing of no QO next season... if he really doesn't want it. 

I'm not sure of the rules of that -- I thought that players and teams couldn't make such "no QO" agreements


#31 birdwatcher

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Posted 16 October 2019 - 08:53 AM

This is a tough call. On the surface, I'd take that $13M risk and sign him as my #6/injury insurance guy. Then I'd pretend he doesn't exist as I build out the rotation with the idea that only one slot goes to an internal candidate such as Dobnak/Thorpe/Smeltzer. (I want 10 options for the rotation that don't make me vomit on my spreadsheet).

 

But, this guy's cheated before, right? SO, I want to get a sense that he feels at least somewhat contrite about how royally he screwed over his teammates and his organization. I want him to want to belong and to make amends. I want loyalty. I want him excited to take advantage of his suspension time and promise to be a hard worker and good influence on the other rehabbing players with him in Fort Meyers. I want him to embrace a regimen that gets him back to MLB in terrific physical shape so that he never, ever thinks about cheating his teammates and his organization again.

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#32 Steve Lein

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Posted 16 October 2019 - 08:58 AM

Yeah I'm not giving Pineda a qualifying offer when he can't expect to get anywhere near that money on the open market. You'd be well overpaying even if it's just a one year deal.

 

Give the QO to Odorizzi, but just flat out sign Pineda for something like 2 years $18-20MIL, with a $12MIL/500K buyout option.

 

Love to have him as a mid-to-back end option, but hard no on qualifying offer to him.

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Scouting Report: Power: 30, Hitting: 50, Arm: 60, Defense: 45, Speed: 45. "Line drive swing and shows good contact and on-base abilities. Double's power at his peak. Strong arm from 2B or the OF, stiff hands. Not a fast runner, but above average instincts on the bases. Skinny body doesn't look the part, but will sneak up on you. ACL surgery sapped much of his athleticism." (Probably)


#33 DannySD

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Posted 16 October 2019 - 09:00 AM

It would be great to have him for 3 years. We need someone to start playoff games in Yankee stadium. 


#34 howieramone2

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Posted 16 October 2019 - 09:06 AM

 

Yes, by all means lets use a chunk of our scarce financial resources on an aging player with a long injury history coming off of a suspension! We can just count on his career-best 2019 season is the new normal, and give him a multi-year contract, just like Phil Hughes! 

 

Who's with me! 

 

Pineda was a nice story for part of the year, but unless he's willing to take a team-friendly deal (and really, why should he), we can move on. 

It's not at all like Phil Hughes. He had a great year, our FO was very savvy to sign him to an extension. Then injuries derailed his career, as it has some many others. Injuries are part of the game, hindsight isn't.


#35 Jeremy Nygaard

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Posted 16 October 2019 - 09:24 AM

 

Like I said upthread, I think Pineda will get suspension credit starting opening day, even if he doesn't sign a contract before then (see Cody Stanley, 2015-2016). So he could be active immediately upon signing in June, although he'd miss out on spring training and the 15 day minor league assignment which isn't insignificant.

 

The JDA has been adjusted since then, but I can't find specific verbiage either way.

 

He would be eligible for Spring Training and would get up to 12 days in the minors.


#36 Dome Dogg

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Posted 16 October 2019 - 09:30 AM

 

It's not at all like Phil Hughes. He had a great year, our FO was very savvy to sign him to an extension. Then injuries derailed his career, as it has some many others. Injuries are part of the game, hindsight isn't.

Why was it a savvy move? He had one good year and still had two years left on his contract. They signed him with the lowest leverage they could possibly have had at that point! 

 

 

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#37 Kelly Vance

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Posted 16 October 2019 - 09:43 AM

 

Yes I hope they attempt to sign him - and I would give the QO if necessary. Playoffs this year prove what we all know. You cannot have enough quality pitching. Cannot. Love to see what the Nats did - after Harper. Pitching rules the day in October. 

You can never have enough good pitching.Every manager knows this, from little league to the majors. Good pitching is rare. The teams that are still in it have ii. Houston, wow.And for all the talk about the Yankees staff being average, we have not seen that. They have pitched great.Tanaka has been a sure thing. The BP is great. But Houston's pitching is better.

 

The Twins best years came when we had 2 guys at the top of the rotation that were as good as anybody.

There is a message in that. You need 2 studs to compete for a WS ring.Cole and Verlander, for example

 

I'd offer Mike $22 million for 2 years. I think he want to stay. 

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#38 spycake

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Posted 16 October 2019 - 09:48 AM

 

The JDA has been adjusted since then, but I can't find specific verbiage either way.

 

He would be eligible for Spring Training and would get up to 12 days in the minors.

Here's the current JDA:

 

http://www.mlb.com/pa/pdf/jda.pdf

 

He gets up to 15 days in the minors, since his suspension was 51+ games (see page 46).

 

And given the Cody Stanley example and the lack of any specificity in the current JDA, I assume that part is still the same and unsigned games would still count in this case.

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#39 yarnivek1972

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Posted 16 October 2019 - 10:01 AM

Although, assuming Pineda's suspension will suppress his market quite a bit on its own, would the Twins be better off trying to sign him for a similar amount *without* the QO? Then we'd have the option to QO him after 2020 instead, if his performance warrants it, of course. (Or we could leverage a second year option or something?)

Of course, Pineda might play hardball and try to draw the QO this offseason, so it would be off the table when he hits FA again next winter.

There is no way Pineda would WANT to receive a QO, especially because he will already have one less month to earn his next check.

If Pineda is QO’d, I see almost no way another team goes after him knowing he misses more than a month AND losing the pick.

Edited by yarnivek1972, 16 October 2019 - 10:04 AM.

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#40 brvama

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Posted 16 October 2019 - 10:06 AM

 

I laid out in the article that he wouldn't actually be paid $17MM. It'd be just under $14MM, and that is what his market should be near.

Ted, that’s exactly what I understood from your article. Still, I feel a pro-rated QO is too much and as others have said, it’s unlikely he would command that on the open market. I am fully on board bringing him back and we should be able to negotiate a more friendly deal. He’s said he likes MN and IMO probably has some regret what he did to the team. Given that assumption, there’s a reasonable chance he resigns. 

Edited by brvama, 16 October 2019 - 10:08 AM.

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