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Falvey: "...We're going to target impact pitching."

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#201 Major League Ready

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Posted 18 October 2019 - 07:14 AM

 

If someone offered you another 25 million a year, I think you might consider this a little differently. 

 

We aren't talking about the difference between 100K and 125K. We are talking about the type of money that will setup 3 generations. 

 

In what scenario is there a $25M/year difference. We are talking about players getting $25-35M/year. When would there ever be even close to a $25M difference?

 

This argument gets grossly over simplified. For starters, this type of player gets major endorsements. That opportunity and the amount of those endorsements is far greater in a major market. In many cases it's probably impossible for a small market to make up the financial loss of those endorsements.

 

There are two other factors that a impossible to measure. Many of these players want to play in a major market for the exposure. In other words, to feed their ego. Playing for the Yankees / Red Sox / Dodgers vs the Twins is far different in feeding that ego for many players. The other factor is the importance of winning. The Yankees and Dodgers with there massive revenue advantage are perennial winners. That's an important factor to a player signing a 5+ year deal when the player really values winning.

Edited by Major League Ready, 18 October 2019 - 07:16 AM.


#202 prouster

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Posted 18 October 2019 - 07:36 AM

In what scenario is there a $25M/year difference. We are talking about players getting $25-35M/year. When would there ever be even close to a $25M difference?

This argument gets grossly over simplified. For starters, this type of player gets major endorsements. That opportunity and the amount of those endorsements is far greater in a major market. In many cases it's probably impossible for a small market to make up the financial loss of those endorsements.

There are two other factors that a impossible to measure. Many of these players want to play in a major market for the exposure. In other words, to feed their ego. Playing for the Yankees / Red Sox / Dodgers vs the Twins is far different in feeding that ego for many players. The other factor is the importance of winning. The Yankees and Dodgers with there massive revenue advantage are perennial winners. That's an important factor to a player signing a 5+ year deal when the player really values winning.


I don’t find the endorsements argument convincing for baseball (it’s definitely a factor in other sports). Forbes has 13 ball players on their 2019 list of the 100 highest paid athletes, and quite a few of those (Cabrera, Pujols, Lester, etc.) seem like they’re probably there only because of their salaries. The real endorsements go to the NFL, NBA, and pro soccer.
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#203 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 18 October 2019 - 07:49 AM

You might be right. I was also thinking $18M for Odorizzi but I estimated $12M for Pineda. My thought is teams will be inclined to keep his contract to two years given his complete lack of physical condition and the AAV might get to 12M as a result. Even at your projection of 28M that would only leave 12M for Wheeler to get to the $40M you have estimated. Like you, I would prefer Wheeler and I think someone is going to make a high offer hoping he gets back to his pre-injury form or his 2018 form. Your $40M estimate would require him to sign for $12M even if Pineda only gets $10M. Also, there was a strong trend last year for less years and higher AAVs. Add this all up and $50M might be a touch high but I think it’s closer to $50M than $40M but I would not bet much on my estimate. The AAV could be influenced significantly based on number of years with all of these guys.

To be clear, I said “much over $40m”. I think those other guys come in at $12-14m. Wheeler is maybe closer to Odorizzi money, like $16m a year.