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Front Page: 8 Twins Who Could be on the Move for 2020

c.j. cron jake odorizzi sergio romo michael pineda jason castro
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#41 JLease

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Posted 10 October 2019 - 08:57 AM

Challenging group, lots of reasonable opinions on either side for a lot of these guys.

 

 

C Jason Castro: I'd like him back, but I think he gets offered a longer term deal elsewhere (2+an option, or even straight 3 year) and the Twins probably shouldn't go there with Garver stepping forward. If he's interested in a 1 year deal or 1+1, I'd do it.

1B C.J. Cron: I liked bringing him in last season and wouldn't mind him coming back, but I think the team moves on. Rooker may be ready to take on the job and there are other in-house options (Marwin can play there, allowing you to carry another OF, Sano can play there as way to get Marwin time at 3B or Adrianza in the lineup) so I think they look at the salary & the production and move along. I'm ok with that.

2B Jonathan Schoop: Did fine this year and was a very smart signing, but Arraez took this job by the throat, and Nick Gordon is waiting in the wings for depth. He moves on, everyone agrees.

 

SP Kyle Gibson: Oh, Kyle. I was so ready to believe in you and illness just wrecked your season, even though you somehow got 29 starts. I think someone looks at his peripherals, the illness this season and take a flyer on last season being who he is and not a fluke season. They may be right. I dunno if it's the Twins or if it should be the Twins. It will be really interesting if he sits on the market for a long time. I think the longer he goes without a deal, the more likely he is to come back to MN where he's comfortable and liked. But I really can't predict the market on him

SP Michael Pineda: I'd bring him back on a 1+1 or 2 year deal, but dammit I want a bit of a discount considering he's suspended for 60 games and we already paid him to rehab. I think he's more likely to be a better pitcher than Gibson next season, but missing the first half is...not great for this team. I think you choose one or the other, not both.

SP Martin Perez: Nope. The change in approach worked for a while, then people adjusted and he didn't have anywhere else to go. I don't think he's effective as a reliever (control is not good enough, stuff is not dominant enough to make up for the BBs). Nice idea, worked for a while, time to move on.

 

SP Jake Odorizzi: Yes. I'd try for 3 years, $45-50M maybe 3 plus an option (vests if he hits certain goals, otherwise is a team option?). I'd consider going as high as $18M AAV and I'd make the QO. I don't think anyone makes a 5 year offer on him, so maybe he does the deal with the Twins for 3 years of security. If he bets on himself and does 1 year, that's ok too, only an overpay if he regresses back to 2017-18; fine value if he's the '15,'16,'19 version and 1 year doesn't hurt you.

RP Sergio Romo: I'm fine with returning him; $2-3M for a reliever is ok and if it turns out he's cooked you can move on from it with minimal impact. As long as his knee isn't going to explode off his leg, he can probably keep flipping that 82 mph slider at hitters until he's 50. But it would be nice to have another reliable lefty in the 'pen so bringing Romo back feels more like a roster issue than a cost or effectiveness one. 

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#42 Shaitan

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Posted 10 October 2019 - 09:23 AM

 

Dyson: Not mentioned, but I'm including him here. The Twins cou,d easily walk away. But they could also do a split deal, like they did with Pineda, and sign him to a "small" 2020 contract, hoping for the best, with a 2021 option with incentives in mind.

 

I was thinking this at first, but with a shoulder injury I just don't know.


#43 Shaitan

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Posted 10 October 2019 - 09:25 AM

 

Also, has Adrianza maybe priced himself out of the picture for the moment? 

 

I hope not. I understand that finances play a role, but good teams don't just let good depth walk away. I also doubt Ehire's hit enough HR to price himself out. HR and AVG still dominate arbitration.


#44 Battle ur tail off

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Posted 10 October 2019 - 09:28 AM

 

 

 

 

 

Also, has Adrianza maybe priced himself out of the picture for the moment? 

 

Boy, not if I am the GM. Adrianza has been an extremely solid guy for this team in his time here. He's not going to break the bank either way, I don't think. He's arbitration eligible, so he can still be here on a 1-year deal. No way they get rid of him and if they do, I think that would be the definition of Pohlad Pocket Protecting.


#45 SwainZag

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Posted 10 October 2019 - 09:30 AM

For reference, per mlbtraderumors.Their arbitration estimates:

 

Twins (10)

Sam Dyson – $6.4MM
Ehire Adrianza – $1.9MM
C.J. Cron – $7.7MM
Trevor May – $2.1MM
Eddie Rosario – $8.9MM
Miguel Sano – $5.9MM
Byron Buxton – $2.9MM
Taylor Rogers – $3.9MM
Tyler Duffey – $1.1MM
Jose Berrios – $5.4MM

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#46 Elliot

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Posted 10 October 2019 - 09:47 AM

Just read a BR report on the top 10 FA starting pitchers. The 3 Twins FA’s are all listed in the 5 thru 10 range. For those insistent on a complete overhaul, the question is, “where will you find someone better”? 6 or 7 years at $200M+ for Cole isn’t happening. 5 yrs at $120m for Wheeler or MadBum isn’t likely either. How happy should we all be that we didn’t get Darvish? Gibson and Pineda are the type of arms that can be gotten on decent deals. I think they will have to overpay to get Odorizzi back, but I think they should I hope the bring 2 or 3 of them back and pull off a trade for a younger arm (Rosario as a centerpiece).
Their biggest shortcoming is not pitching, but infield defense followed by the ability to score runs other than via HR.
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#47 Battle ur tail off

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Posted 10 October 2019 - 09:47 AM

 

For reference, per mlbtraderumors.Their arbitration estimates:

 

Twins (10)

Sam Dyson – $6.4MM
Ehire Adrianza – $1.9MM
C.J. Cron – $7.7MM
Trevor May – $2.1MM
Eddie Rosario – $8.9MM
Miguel Sano – $5.9MM
Byron Buxton – $2.9MM
Taylor Rogers – $3.9MM
Tyler Duffey – $1.1MM
Jose Berrios – $5.4MM

 

 

And that right there is why now is the time to go all in. Lots of productive guys there that are playing for cheap. 

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#48 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 10 October 2019 - 10:25 AM

Castro: If they can get him for a year, I'd do it. The question to me is whether we're comfortable with a Garver/Turtle combo at C. I don't think Rortvedt or Jeffers will be ready either, so you're signing a 4A type at C to sit in AAA.

 

Cron: Ikeep unless there's another 1B on the market that they want. Really, you have to replace his production and there's no one in the high minors that could feasibly do that at 1st or 3rd if you wanted to move Sano there. 

 

Schoop: Good bye... Arraez can handle the job for now, though I'd make it a competition between him and Gordon. 

 

Romo: Stays. 

 

Gibson/Pineda: I think one of these guys stays. It really depends on Gibson's medicals, though I'd lean Pineda who was pretty good and will come cheap. With Pineda, you can start Graterol in late April/May with the plan of keeping him the majors to build up his innings count as a long reliever/spot starter.

 

Perez: Good bye... It was a nice run, but once he was figured out, he regressed to his mean. 

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#49 Jham

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Posted 10 October 2019 - 11:02 AM

I don't understand why people want Pineda, Odorizzi, Perez, and Gibson back. At some point one has to realize that if they do things the same way, the results will be the same (0 for the postseason.)

This pitching staff needs major overhaul, and the biggest elephant in the room is that Berrios has not improved in 3 major league seasons... I hope that the new regime realizes that and makes drastic changes. They need 2 pitchers better than Berrios to compete in the postseason.

Cron was third in the majors in xwOBA-wOBA and not sure that there are any cheaper better performing free agents or that any of the farm solutions are ready for a postseason contender.

I think some of the "stay the same" is based on our 2019 success and the resignation to how our front office works, or doesn't work.

A key tenet to modern baseball management is to pay for future production vs past. ie who is likely to hold their form or improve. Perez flashed dominance. I think he could improve and fill a back end. I would not necessarily bet on Pineda improving. He was caught taking a making agent. Maybe it's nothing. Maybe it is.

Odo and Gibson have strong track records. Both showed good velocity. Twins have never been good about signing FA. The FO prides themselves in not overpaying which is what FA is.

So here's the catch 22. The guys the forum wants back or hopes to add are guys everyone wants. The chances we get even 1 of those guys, Odo, Pineda, Wheeler, Bummy, Ryu... remote or impossible.

That's why we're looking closely as to whether Gibby can bounce back, whether Perez can take another step forward, whether Smeltzer/thorpe/dobnak are legit.

I could see the Twins trading for Darvish for some reason. Finished strong, 1.10 whip. Hasn't worked out great in Chicago to date. FO loves him. We balked at years, fewer years left on the k now.

Edited by Jham, 10 October 2019 - 11:02 AM.


#50 DocBauer

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Posted 10 October 2019 - 11:02 AM

For reference, per mlbtraderumors. Their arbitration estimates:

Twins (10)
Sam Dyson – $6.4MM
Ehire Adrianza – $1.9MM
C.J. Cron – $7.7MM
Trevor May – $2.1MM
Eddie Rosario – $8.9MM
Miguel Sano – $5.9MM
Byron Buxton – $2.9MM
Taylor Rogers – $3.9MM
Tyler Duffey – $1.1MM
Jose Berrios – $5.4MM


I'm in favor of bringing Cton back, but that number seems a little high. I think he was only at $4.8M in 2019. That would be quite a jump.

Obviously Dyson will be a no-go at that number. 50/50 he is just allowed to walk vs a 2yr split deal.

The rest seems to make sense.
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#51 SwainZag

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Posted 10 October 2019 - 11:09 AM

 

I'm in favor of bringing Cton back, but that number seems a little high. I think he was only at $4.8M in 2019. That would be quite a jump.

Obviously Dyson will be a no-go at that number. 50/50 he is just allowed to walk vs a 2yr split deal.

The rest seems to make sense.

 

WIth Rogers number to jump that high.......I wouldn't be surprised to see him get an extension before arbitration hits.

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#52 bustedstuff88

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Posted 10 October 2019 - 11:28 AM

I dont care what else happens....If Gibson is on the 2020 roster, this offseason was a failure. 

 

He will be our litmus test. 

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#53 JadenPoint

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Posted 10 October 2019 - 11:52 AM

I would like to see the FO think outside the box. Twins had no true running threat outside of Buxton, and opposing pitchers knew that. A lead off guy like Whit Merrifield would be perfect in this lineup. Someone who gets on base, can steal bases and can play any outfield position, 2b and 1b. I'm probably in the minority here, but 8 out of 9 in the batting order, all swinging for the fences every at bat, won't get it done in the post season.

#54 SwainZag

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Posted 10 October 2019 - 11:59 AM

 

I would like to see the FO think outside the box. Twins had no true running threat outside of Buxton, and opposing pitchers knew that. A lead off guy like Whit Merrifield would be perfect in this lineup. Someone who gets on base, can steal bases and can play any outfield position, 2b and 1b. I'm probably in the minority here, but 8 out of 9 in the batting order, all swinging for the fences every at bat, won't get it done in the post season.

 

I think anyone would love to have Merrifield on this team, but he would more than likely cost a fortune to pry away from Kansas City.If they are going to be using assets like that to acquire anyone, I'd rather they do it for pitching

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#55 JadenPoint

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Posted 10 October 2019 - 12:02 PM

I agree and was using him as an example. If I'm a FA pitcher, I'm not liking the Twins due to their poor fielding

#56 wabene

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Posted 10 October 2019 - 01:09 PM

Castro yes if he will accept a #2 role and short deal. Astudillo should not be our #2 catcher.


Odorizzi is priority number one. He says he wants to come back. He arguably should have started game 1 but when he was held back to game 3 he was a damn good soldier. QO while being open to a 3 year deal.


Cron is yes. I see Sano at third one more year so it would be hard to replace his healthy production. The Twins need to get a third baseman moving forward. Blankenthorn is not ready for his shot and is no sure thing, plus they list him at second. Who do we have? Miranda? If they could snag a good FA 3rd baseman Sano could try first. The problem is who is available? Rendon? Hahaha. Schoop and his arm at 3rd? Is that out of the box or what?


Pineda yes. If the guy worked on his conditioning like Sano did he wouldn't need a masking agent and could lead this rotation. He wants to be here and has much to prove. I give him a chance.


Schoop no. Good guy, good soldier somebody will grab him. Gordon may be ready to challenge for some innings at second behind Arraez.


Perez no.


Gibson no. I have argued in his favor the last 2 years and I am done. A minor league deal? Maybe, we don't know what his market will be. I like Gibby but I really like when guys work fast and just fire away. The game the way it's supposed to be played.


Romo yes. What is not to like here? The price is right too.
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#57 Thrylos

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Posted 10 October 2019 - 01:21 PM

 

 

 

Internally, they'll have a slew of prospects who are further along than Dobnak was to start the year. Besides Dobnak, Smeltzer, and Thorpe, they can consider Graterol, Poppen, maybe Gonsalves, and then drop down to guys who finished a level higher this year than Dobnak started, in Balazovic, Duran, Colina, Ober, Enlow...in other words, they have the luxury of sufficient financial room and a wealth of prospect capital to solve the immediate need for front line guys. 

 

 

 

This is the reason that I don't think that they should re-sign any of their FA SPs or pick up Perez's option. If they get 2 starters better than Berrios (who can be a fine 3)2 of the above can fill at 4 and 5 better than Perez and Gibson (Fact:Dobnak was better than Gibson and Smeltzer was better than Perez in 2019 and they are on the better side of the bell curve than the 2 players who will replace.)  

 

Pineda comes with major baggage and issues and I was probably one of the very few people who did not care about the signing because of those issues back when that happened.

 

Odorizzi averaged 5-1/3 innings per start.This is not a starter or number 2 material.He is pretty much an older version of Berrios and Berrios is cheaper.I'd rather see them invest that $ towards a true #1 and #2, and they might have to get one of the 2 via trade.

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#58 JLease

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Posted 10 October 2019 - 01:52 PM

 

I dont care what else happens....If Gibson is on the 2020 roster, this offseason was a failure. 

 

He will be our litmus test. 

 

Because he was a replacement-level player this year, while dealing with an e.Coli infection and ulcerative colitis?

 

I think your "litmus test" is a terrible one to judge this franchise on. If the FO is convinced they can get the 2018 version of Kyle Gibson next year, then he's a significant asset on the roster, depending on the price. He put up a 3.8 bWAR and 118 ERA+ while chewing up almost 200 innings and averaging over 6 IP per start. If that guy is your #3 or #4 starter, you're in fantastic shape. And if Gibson can be had at an AAV of say under $12M and your staff thinks he's going to be that pitcher, it's a good move and hardly a failed offseason because he's back on the roster. If he's available a week before spring training and wants to do a 1 year "prove it" deal and the team thinks he's healthy, not bringing him for an arbitrary reason like that is franchise malpractice.

 

It's fair to say, "I don't think Kyle Gibson can replicate 2018." or "I don't think he's going to be worth the money on a long term deal." but isn't it just silly to say (in Oct) "The offseason is a failure if Kyle Gibson is on the roster in 2020"?

 

It's not like this is a pitcher who's never had success in MLB. Or has constantly been injured. or is somehow a major tool/clubhouse cancer. He's had multiple quality seasons.

 

I used to call him The Tease, because it never seemed like he was going to put it together consistently. Then he did it for 2018. Changed his approach, got more Ks, had more success and did have that consistency.

 

There's real risk with him. But there's also success and value to be had there if things break his way. I value Odorizzi higher because he's had a stronger track record overall, is 2 years younger, and looks well positioned to have continued success in his more limited innings. But Gibson, if fully healthy, is probably a decent bet to have a successful season. (keep in mind Gibson's fWAR in 2019 was actually the same as his fWAR in 2018; personally I consider bWAR a better representation of what a pitcher actually did in any given season but fWAR is considered by many a better predictor of future success...)

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#59 justinone

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Posted 10 October 2019 - 02:23 PM

Jason Castro - I like him, but I would rather spend the money elsewhere. Astudillo should be a serviceable backup. I also don't want to carry 3 catchers. 

 

C.J. Cron - I'd offer him a reasonable one year contract. I would use him as a lefty masher/platoon/bench bat.

 

Jonathan Schoop - Again I like him, but he no longer fits with this team. 

 

Kyle Gibson - This is the guy I'm most torn on. I wish he could figure out how to be consistently good, but I probably let him walk. If he wants a one year make good deal--I would be fine with it.

 

Michael Pineda - I'll take him back, but I wouldn't do more than a two years $20MM deal.

 

Martin Perez - Buy out his option and let him walk.

 

Jake Odorizzi - In my mind this is a no-brainer. Jake is my first priority. I'd go up to four years for $60MM. Doesn't like it? Then he gets the qualifying offer.

 

Sergio Romo - I'd take him back for a small one year deal for $3MM, but I worry about his knee. 

 

Finally I go hard after Cole. I don't think he will come up here, but I give it my best shot. I would offer five years for $200MM. 


#60 insagt1

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Posted 10 October 2019 - 09:47 PM

retaining Astudillo means you can 'have' 3 catchers, without wasting a roster spot. Turtle can play so many positions he wouldn't have to be a 3rd catcher per se. He gives the team extra utility.

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