Posted 09 October 2019 - 08:57 PM
Sorry, but I almost feel like a copy and paste since I've pretty much said these things in other threads, but my thoughts haven't changed, so here I go again.
Couple quick points/thoughts:
1] The $60-$70M budget to work with is easy, and what I've been working with. That pretty much keeps the 2020 payroll static. That DOES NOT mean the payroll won't increase, it was larger in 2018. The FO is on record...with no set $ amount of course...as stating they would add when the window was open and it seemed right to do so. The mean for 2020, speculating, should be around $150M in MLB. I don't necessarily expect that as the FO undoubtedly is looking at additional extensions.
2] I absolutely believe the FO is willing to trade a handful of top 10-30 prospects in the right deal. And as deep as the system is, it would be able to handle a mkve like that easily. But they also want sustainability, and there is no way 2 major trades are made to gut the system.
All that being said:
A] Odorizzi will be targeted, initial QO or not. I see no reason why he wouldn't want to return. I also see no reason why a 3yr deal, possibly 4yr or an option year, at around $14-15M per wouldn't work.
B] While his suspension hurt the end of this season and will impact the start of the next, I believe Pineda will be brought back. And I like that idea. It makes sense, I'm uncertain of length but $12M sounds about right all things considered.
C] I think Castro is back, no big offer forthcoming from anyone else, for about $4-5M. Cron is also back for about $5Mm unless someone can show me a better alternative for the same $. And, I also bring back Romo on a 1yr for about $3-4M, small bump from this season and very fair.
Anyway you slice it, gives you approximately $30M to find another rotation arm you really need.
D] Does Cole really $30M or more? I'd like to see him in a Twins uniform, but 1/5th of total payroll for 1 SP and for 5-6yrs? I just don't know. Logic would tell me contact like that would only come from N.Y., L.A., Boston, etc. If offered something close, would he choose the Twins and Rocco and Johnson and Target Field and a strong team who's window just opened?
I'm saying it won't happen, even if the Twins really put themselves out there, due to many factors from bright lights to being from California, etc. So I move down a peg.
I like Wheeler. But Bumgarner is my next target. It's time for the Giants to rebuild, and time for MadBum to look elsewhere for $, a change of scenery, and a chance to win. I'm nervous about the number of IP and being 32yo in 2020. He is not what he once was. But everything I've read seems the velocity is still good, and peripherals are solid, despite a somewhat mediocre 2019. Is he nearing the end? Or was it just a down season and a new challenge, environment and pitching coach just what he needs? 2 or 3yrs or however options play in to it, he'd come in around $16-18M for career production mixed in with speculation.
Personally, I think it's about 50/50 the Twins sign someone vs making a trade.
E] Whether FA or smaller trade, I'd make a move for a 2nd LH for the pen.
All said and done, Cole and my LHRP meets or slightly bumps the 2020 payroll. Extensions bump it a little more, and we still don't hit the MLB mean. That allows even more flexibility for additions, etc. If it's a Bumgarner, Wheeler, Trade addition, even with said LHRP, the payroll stays about the same, even with extensions. And that's not necessarily bad!
**Notes: Not convinced Perez is back regardless, but could be in the Bumarner/Trade scenario. Unfortunately, Gibson is gone unless it's a small incentive laden deal. Dyson could be retained on a split 2yr deal for $750K-1M 1st year rehab and something like $4-5M 2nd year deal, but not figuring him in here for obvious reasons.
2020 STAFF, allowing for 26 man roster and POTENTIAL 13 man staff:
1 & 2] Berrios, Bumgarner/Trade (leaving Cole out)
4] Pineda (after time served)
5] Dobnak, Smeltzer, Thorpe, Graterol (Perez, Gibson, Fljer)
5] LH FA/Trade
8] Romero, Poppen, Flier, and about anyone and everyone else
wabene and rdehring like this
"Nice catch Hayes...don't ever f*****g do it again."