Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.
Photo

Front Page: Twins' Payroll Analysis: Three Pitchers, $70M

  • Please log in to reply
78 replies to this topic

#21 LA VIkes Fan

LA VIkes Fan

    Junior Member

  • Member
  • 1,723 posts

Posted 09 October 2019 - 09:02 AM

We're all in favor of signing a FA starting pitcher. Saying that is easy. The questions are who and who do you keep? Here's my view in order of priority:

 

1. Re-sign Michael Pineda. 2-3 years, 12-15m a year. Pro-rate first year; now he's penalized enough.

 

2. Re-sign Odorizzi. 3 years, 45-50m. 

 

3. FA starter. Try for Cole (probably a no, he'll be in Houston or go home to SoCal).Go after Zach Wheeler or Dallas Kuechel. 3 years (2 for Kuechel if you can), roughly 15m a year. I'd love Syndegaard but he isn't a Free Agent and would require a trade. I'd be willing to trade Rosario but the price will be MUCH higher than that if the Mets even consider trading him. I don't think they will. 

 

4. Let Gibson go elsewhere. Starters 5-10 (you need 8-10 to cover injuries) are Perez, Dobnak, Thorpe, Smeltzer, and Graderol. Perez goes if we get a FA starter under #3. 

 

My 2020 rotations:

 

Berrios/FA starter

FA starter/Berrios

Odorizzi

Pineda

Donak/Thorpe/Smeltzer 

  • birdwatcher, Dantes929, DocBauer and 4 others like this

#22 JLease

JLease

    Pensacola Blue Wahoos

  • Member
  • 610 posts

Posted 09 October 2019 - 09:24 AM

 

They need to lock in Cruz for a few years too.But they can/should spend the most on pitching and be able to re-sign Buxton, Sano, Kepler, Garver and Rosario.  

 

No no no no no no no.

We already have Cruz under contract for next season (as soon as the option is picked up). Extending a 40-year old player beyond the additional year you have them coming off a big, but injury-impacted year is terrible planning, especially for a position that is limited to DH. You can go year-to-year on Cruz and if someone swoops in after next season (if he has another boomstick year) and overpays him, so be it. But you don't lock down a multi-year deal for a 40+ DH. Twins played that one perfectly last year: 1 year with a team option. Now we pick up the option and smile, and even if he craters next year, the team is fine.

 

I would absolutely throw big money at Cole, because the window is open and he's elite. You pay elite guys.

 

My preference is they go big after a top starter, someone who has ace qualifications and can compete for Cy. Put 50% of the resources available on that one. Bring back odorizzi for another run; If he's your #3 you're in good shape, even knowing that he's rarely going to go 7 and will likely get pulled in the 6th. 3 years @ $15-17M could get it done. I'd toss $8-10M at a back-end guy so you're feeling confident in 4 slots to start the year. I think you can try fill 1 spot in the rotation internally; it's too much risk to go for 2, especially because with injuries and possible ineffectiveness you'll need other starters to come up anyways.

 

The problem is, there aren't very many top-end starters that can be had. Would I offer 6/$220M for Cole? Yes, I would. the window is open, let's go for it. Will he come here for that? Will he come even if it's 6/$240M? We just don't know.

 

Pineda keeps coming up. I would consider him, but I want a little discount and I want either a 2nd year or a team option. The suspension (and how it hamstrung the team this year) is a problem.

  • birdwatcher, Dantes929, KidBro and 2 others like this

#23 iastfan112

iastfan112

    Senior Member

  • Member
  • 251 posts

Posted 09 October 2019 - 09:31 AM

I've seen both here and elsewhere suggesting Odorizzi signing a 3 year contract. I don't see it happening, this is his one real chance to sign a relatively long, lucrative contract. I'm betting he gets a 5 year contract, though a 4 year one with an option at the end also seems quite possible.

Edit: And if for some reason it is a 3 year contract it's going to be more like $20 million a year not this 15 I see suggested as well.

Edited by iastfan112, 09 October 2019 - 09:44 AM.

  • Sconnie likes this

#24 Mike Sixel

Mike Sixel

    Now living in Oregon

  • Member
  • 30,544 posts

Posted 09 October 2019 - 09:31 AM

Pineda hasn't had a healthy year since many of you were born*

*Exaggeration for effect....

Either the window is open, or not. But Cruz won't be here forever. Sano and Rosario aren't here forever. Garver will probably be less healthy year after year, that's the nature of catching.

If they don't get two good pitchers, why should any fan believe they will ever go in?

Edited by Mike Sixel, 09 October 2019 - 09:32 AM.

  • Tomj14 and Battle ur tail off like this

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#25 bustedstuff88

bustedstuff88

    Elizabethton Twins

  • Member
  • 38 posts

Posted 09 October 2019 - 09:37 AM

Anything less than acquiring at least one bonafida ACE (think G. Cole) this offseason should be viewed as total failure....As pointed out in the latest podcast, the "sustainable winner model" pretty much translates to being built to win the AL central, but not much more. We need a shut down pitcher we fans can be excited to trust against the Yankees come October. 

  • Tomj14, Diesel and jz7233 like this

#26 bustedstuff88

bustedstuff88

    Elizabethton Twins

  • Member
  • 38 posts

Posted 09 October 2019 - 09:39 AM

And.....For what its worth, Bleacher Reports list of the top 10 available free agent starters included (with Martin Perez being an honorable mention) 4 Twins starters....Odorizzi, Pineada and Gibson......so lets not target mid level guys here unless we are content with basically just resigning the entire group we already had +Jose Berrios and calling it an offseason. 


#27 jz7233

jz7233

    Pensacola Blue Wahoos

  • Member
  • 623 posts

Posted 09 October 2019 - 09:50 AM

 

Nothing needs to be done with Cruz.Has another year, and will probably gladly take another similar deal at the end of it if offered at his age.It's value may go down.

I'll be interested to see what they do in pitching.I'd dangle Rosario, but he alone probably won't fetch much more than a Gibson.Would adding Rooker move the needle?

Gerrit Cole would be awesome, but it will probably take closer to 40mil to get him to spend his summers in MN.

I would not trade Rosario, I think he is special, he could help Twins win a World Series in the future. I would trade Buxton first. Buxton has the talent, unfortunately he has not contributed much on and off the field. He may not want to play in Minnesota. Lewis could be our future center fielder.

  • RGR71 likes this

#28 howieramone2

howieramone2

    Just say no to myths!

  • Member
  • 1,703 posts
  • LocationMaple Grove/Schaumburg

Posted 09 October 2019 - 10:08 AM

 

Yes, this strategy has worked well with Lance Lynn, Phil Hughes, Mike Pelfrey, Kevin Corriea, Hector Santiago, Bartolo Colon, Anibal Sanchez, Martin Perez and more! 

 

The 20-game winner can start two games in the ALDS and three in the ALCS/WS. That's why its needed in my opinion. Having a bunch of middling starters and hoping for career years has not worked out for this organization, especially when it comes to winning in the playoffs. 

The past is not a perfect predictor of the future. To me it's a foregone conclusion the new regime will have another solid off-season.

  • DocBauer and wabene like this

#29 yarnivek1972

yarnivek1972

    Cooperstown

  • Member
  • 6,531 posts

Posted 09 October 2019 - 10:12 AM

They need to lock in Cruz for a few years too. But they can/should spend the most on pitching and be able to re-sign Buxton, Sano, Kepler, Garver and Rosario.


Cruz turns 40 next year. How many MORE years after 2020 are you suggesting he be locked in for?
  • Tomj14 likes this

#30 howieramone2

howieramone2

    Just say no to myths!

  • Member
  • 1,703 posts
  • LocationMaple Grove/Schaumburg

Posted 09 October 2019 - 10:14 AM

 

The goal should be to beat the Yankees. To beat them....you should probably act like them.

 

What do they usually do?? They never get rid of people [don't know exactly why....guess because they always make good decisions]. They develop and groom and make people fit in. Then they add expensive free agents to make all those marginal types look good.

 

So, keep everyone [including Gibson], and then sign the best available starter and the best available reliever.....and keep developing the players you have.

 

I think Syndergaard would be a good start...........

 The Mets recently said he won't be traded. Also, MLB.com had him as one of the 20 most overrated players. Looks like another Chris Archer to me.

Edited by howieramone2, 09 October 2019 - 10:15 AM.

  • DocBauer and wabene like this

#31 yarnivek1972

yarnivek1972

    Cooperstown

  • Member
  • 6,531 posts

Posted 09 October 2019 - 10:16 AM

I would not trade Rosario, I think he is special, he could help Twins win a World Series in the future. I would trade Buxton first. Buxton has the talent, unfortunately he has not contributed much on and off the field. He may not want to play in Minnesota. Lewis could be our future center fielder.


Neither Buxton or Rosario by themselves is going to fetch a controllable ace caliber pitcher. I think the most probable way for the Twins to pull it off would be to trade an OFer to team A, have team A trade prospects to team B, add in more prospects for team B and get your guy that way from team B. A team trading for Rosario or Buxton isn’t going to trade away a good pitcher at the MLB level.

Edited by yarnivek1972, 09 October 2019 - 10:17 AM.


#32 howeda7

howeda7

    Senior Member

  • Member
  • 1,797 posts

Posted 09 October 2019 - 10:24 AM

Get a deal done for Syndergaard (Rosario and the #2 pitching prospect whose name I can never spell). Make a run at Cole. If he balks, Mad Baum is a acceptable alternative.


#33 howieramone2

howieramone2

    Just say no to myths!

  • Member
  • 1,703 posts
  • LocationMaple Grove/Schaumburg

Posted 09 October 2019 - 10:28 AM

 

Pineda hasn't had a healthy year since many of you were born*

*Exaggeration for effect....

Either the window is open, or not. But Cruz won't be here forever. Sano and Rosario aren't here forever. Garver will probably be less healthy year after year, that's the nature of catching.

If they don't get two good pitchers, why should any fan believe they will ever go in?

Who said they won't get 2 good pitchers? They may even pick up 3. Don't confuse free agent pitchers with good pitchers. Free agency has been the market of last resort for many years, and it's become even more clear the past 2 off-seasons.

Edited by howieramone2, 09 October 2019 - 10:32 AM.

  • chpettit19 likes this

#34 SwainZag

SwainZag

    Member

  • Moderator
  • 2,466 posts
  • LocationMontana

Posted 09 October 2019 - 10:34 AM

 

Neither Buxton or Rosario by themselves is going to fetch a controllable ace caliber pitcher. I think the most probable way for the Twins to pull it off would be to trade an OFer to team A, have team A trade prospects to team B, add in more prospects for team B and get your guy that way from team B. A team trading for Rosario or Buxton isn’t going to trade away a good pitcher at the MLB level.

 

Why wouldn't the Twins just trade prospects?What's the use of trading Buxton AND prospects, when they could just do it with prospects and keep Buxton?

  • Sconnie, DocBauer, howieramone2 and 1 other like this

#35 Dantes929

Dantes929

    Senior Member

  • Member
  • 2,656 posts

Posted 09 October 2019 - 10:37 AM

 

Yes, this strategy has worked well with Lance Lynn, Phil Hughes, Mike Pelfrey, Kevin Corriea, Hector Santiago, Bartolo Colon, Anibal Sanchez, Martin Perez and more! 

 

The 20-game winner can start two games in the ALDS and three in the ALCS/WS. That's why its needed in my opinion. Having a bunch of middling starters and hoping for career years has not worked out for this organization, especially when it comes to winning in the playoffs. 

Lynn and Sanchez would have looked good to me in Twins uniforms this year and you should probably add Odorizzi to the list. Hughes was great for a year also.  

  • chpettit19 and howieramone2 like this
If you build a man a fire, he'll be warm for a day.
If you set a man on fire, he'll be warm for the rest of his life.

#36 yarnivek1972

yarnivek1972

    Cooperstown

  • Member
  • 6,531 posts

Posted 09 October 2019 - 10:43 AM

Why wouldn't the Twins just trade prospects? What's the use of trading Buxton AND prospects, when they could just do it with prospects and keep Buxton?


We’re talking about adding two good starting pitchers. The Twins probably don’t have enough prospects to do that without adding some MLB talent.

#37 Dantes929

Dantes929

    Senior Member

  • Member
  • 2,656 posts

Posted 09 October 2019 - 10:44 AM

I would like to see Kiriloff come up and replace Cron. Resign Odorizzi and Pineda if possible.If Dyson were healthy I would say the bullpen is maybe done but instead we need to replace Dyson equivalent.If we can sign Odorizzi and Pineda then adding one more Odorizzi or Pineda type or better would complete the off season. Cole would be ideal. 

  • howieramone2 and jz7233 like this
If you build a man a fire, he'll be warm for a day.
If you set a man on fire, he'll be warm for the rest of his life.

#38 howieramone2

howieramone2

    Just say no to myths!

  • Member
  • 1,703 posts
  • LocationMaple Grove/Schaumburg

Posted 09 October 2019 - 10:53 AM

 

We’re talking about adding two good starting pitchers. The Twins probably don’t have enough prospects to do that without adding some MLB talent.

Our favorite team picked up 2 solid relievers at the trade deadline for little or nothing. They have enough prospects to get what many, including some of the national experts will view as good starters.

  • DocBauer likes this

#39 Kelly Vance

Kelly Vance

    Junior Member

  • Member
  • 710 posts

Posted 09 October 2019 - 10:54 AM

I'd QO Jake and try to extend Sano, Buck and Eddie. I would let Cron and Schoop go with a big thank you. I'd bring Castro back and see if Cruz wants an additional year.All those guys fit.

I'd guilt Big Mike into signing at market or a little below. 

 

But I would absolutely overpay for Cole. Absolutely.

 

Cole, Berrios, Odo, Graterol and Dobber (eventually Mike) gives us a chance at a decent rotation 1-162.

 

After Cole, we go with the hot hand in the ALDS and ALCS. Methinks that will Be Jose and Jake as 2 and 3. But short leash with Mike in the background. 

 

Curious to see how Busdar adjusts back to starter

 

Dobber/Gibson (if healthy)become long relief/ swing men out of the pen. 

 

AND CRUZ IS SPECIAL

 

"The 39-year-old Cruz reached the 40-homer mark for the fourth time in the last six seasons, and he's hit at least 37 homers in all of those years. Cruz became just the fourth player in Major League history to post a 40-homer season in his age-38 season or older, joining Barry Bonds (2003-04), Darrell Evans (1985) and Hank Aaron (1973).

Cruz finished the 2019 season with a .311/.392/.639 slash line and a 1.031 OPS that was second in the AL behind Mike Trout."

 

 

 

Yes, make it two more years for Nelson

 

 

 

 

 

 

  • jz7233 likes this

#40 yarnivek1972

yarnivek1972

    Cooperstown

  • Member
  • 6,531 posts

Posted 09 October 2019 - 10:57 AM

Our favorite team picked up 2 solid relievers at the trade deadline for little or nothing. They have enough prospects to get what many, including some of the national experts will view as good starters.


Sure, they got two months of one and like 2 outings from the other.

We’re talking about starters for (ideally) multiple seasons. I’m not particularly interested in acquiring a one year rental.
  • Mike Sixel and Tomj14 like this