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Front Page: Now Entering Second Guess Season

rocco baldelli jake odorizzi jose berrios taylor rogers trevor may
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#21 spycake

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Posted 09 October 2019 - 07:55 AM

 

Well your best pitcher all season is Berrios. There is no one in the bullpen who is better. 

By what measure? Berrios pitched the most innings, but "better" implies quality, not quantity. And with a fully rested pen in a tied postseason game in the 5th inning, I think we were looking for quality rather than quantity too.

 

By any objective view, Rogers and Duffey were better *quality* pitchers than Berrios this season. Odorizzi has an argument. If you weigh the last 2 months, May and Littell would enter the conversation too, maybe even Romo.

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#22 Dantes929

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Posted 09 October 2019 - 08:22 AM

In high school in a single elimination region game we had a an ace and several other good pitchers. We probably had a 50/50 chance against the first team if we didn't use our ace but less than 50/50 against the 2nd team if we didn't use our ace. Our odds were good against either team with our ace.Our coach did not use our ace in the first game, we won that one, and then the 2nd game 1-0 and went on to win the state championship and everyone called the coach a genius.Another season we had the exact same situation with the same ace and the coach made the same decision.We lost that first game and our playoffs were done and our ace was never used. The coach was 2nd guessed by nearly everyone.The exact same situation and the exact same decisions but with different outcomes and in one the coach is a genius and the other he is an idiot. In this case, in game one, yes, Berrios could have maybe gone another inning but he was obviously struggling with the command of his signature pitch. Take a look at Littell's game log this season and you will see he was pretty much lights out all year long. It should have gone Littell, Duffey, May, Romo and Rogers to shut out the game much like it happened many times this season. Instead Littell, who walked 2 guys per 9, walks the first guy, throws a wild pitch, and then beans a guy. Now Duffey comes in earlier than desired and gives up those two runs.It wasn't the plan that was flawed it was the performance by the players. Aaraez should have had the pop up, Cron should have caught the double play relay and the Twins would have been in position to use the relievers in order.Its on the players. They didn't make the plays and the Yankees did. Its not that our players couldn't make the plays or that they couldn't make contact with no outs and bases loaded. Its that they didn't. Its baseball.

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#23 stringer bell

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Posted 09 October 2019 - 08:32 AM

I think the Twins strategy was to get the ball to their reconstituted bullpen with a chance to win. Berríos gave four credible innings and Odo five, but the chances of either surviving another full inning weren’t great.

I thought Schoop in the first game was a given and Arraez’ lack of mobility cost them in the field.

The club gambled on giving Kepler maximum rest and lost. Kepler is prone to snags like he suffered in the playoffs, and expecting him to be sharp after missing most of a month was a bad gamble.
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#24 spycake

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Posted 09 October 2019 - 08:33 AM

On the Schoop/Arraez thing, I posted elsewhere, but I don't get that criticism either. Even as a "lefty masher" Schoop had basically the same AVG and a lower OBP vs LHP than Arraez this season, and Schoop's profile (power, strikeouts) was also largely redundant with several other pieces in our lineup. Arraez turned out to be one of our few effective bats this postseason, and perhaps his unique profile was a contributing factor -- the Yankees didn't seem to have an effective approach for him. (Schoop struck out in both of his pinch hit ABs, suggesting the general Yankee approach was working on him too.)

 

Furthermore, it looks like perhaps Schoop is exploitable in the postseason / pressure spots? Career postseason OPS of .346 before 2019. Others have noted he wasn't exactly "clutch" this year either (-1.10 WPA, -0.58 WPA/LI, both worst on the team, with career negative marks too). Last October the Brewers only started him 1 time, and used him as a pinch hitter 3 times, over 10 postseason games. He shouldn't be an automatic start in the postseason vs a LHP, or anyone, really.

 

I'm sure there's a point where Arraez's health may have warranted Schoop starting, but it's not clear to me that we were at that point, despite that looper dropping in the outfield in game 1.

Edited by spycake, 09 October 2019 - 08:34 AM.


#25 Steve Lein

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Posted 09 October 2019 - 08:50 AM

"Minnesota became the first 100-win team to be swept out of the first round of the playoffs"

 

Well, how many times have two 100-win teams ever even played in the first round of the playoffs? A quick search shows me that this was only the second time ever in the division series (Yankees vs. Red Sox in 2018 the other) and only the fourth time in the wild-card era that two 100-win teams faced each other in any playoff series, including the World Series.

 

That's a dubious record to point out :)

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#26 Mike Sixel

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Posted 09 October 2019 - 09:02 AM

My only two things

Schoop should have started game one. No question.

Odorrizi should have started game two.

I agree strongly with the Gibson decision. That keeps the Yankees from seeing the good RP two days in a row.

I was mildly opposed to some of the bullpen usage, but not strongly.

Before the series, people here said the bullpen was vastly improved, and the front office deserved credit for Littell and others. So, which is it?

Edited by Mike Sixel, 09 October 2019 - 09:03 AM.

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#27 spycake

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Posted 09 October 2019 - 09:08 AM

 

I was mildly opposed to some of the bullpen usage, but not strongly.

How could you not be strongly opposed to Duffey being the 1st guy out of the pen, in a jam, in game 2? See the evidence from Fangraphs here:

 

http://twinsdaily.co...nkees/?p=929648

 

That mistake was so obvious, it goes beyond "rookie manager learning the ropes" to me.


#28 Mike Sixel

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Posted 09 October 2019 - 09:13 AM

How could you not be strongly opposed to Duffey being the 1st guy out of the pen, in a jam, in game 2? See the evidence from Fangraphs here:

http://twinsdaily.co...nkees/?p=929648

That mistake was so obvious, it goes beyond "rookie manager learning the ropes" to me.


Meh. It wasn't a good move. It wasn't a move that made a huge difference. I would have used Rogers in a jam. So, sure, that move was bad. But people are acting like every decision was bad. The players stunk. That's what mattered most.

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#29 spycake

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Posted 09 October 2019 - 09:21 AM

 

Meh. It wasn't a good move. It wasn't a move that made a huge difference. I would have used Rogers in a jam. So, sure, that move was bad. But people are acting like every decision was bad. The players stunk. That's what mattered most.

What do you mean, it didn't make a huge difference? It took the game from 1-0 to 8-0.

 

We had Rogers, Romo, and May *fully rested*, and we turn first to our most-taxed reliever from game 1. Did you read the link? Duffey's velo was down from game 1 (not surprising). And Gregorious specifically said he was seeing his pitches better, having already seen him in game 1 (not surprising).

 

I totally get Littell/Duffey in game 1. I'm not crazy about the Stashak/Gibson moves in game 1, but I can see a justification for that too -- but not if you're just going to go to Duffey again like that in game 2. The point of using Stashak/Gibson was to save Rogers/May/Romo so you wouldn't *have* to use Duffey like that again in game 2.

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#30 Mike Sixel

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Posted 09 October 2019 - 09:27 AM

What do you mean, it didn't make a huge difference? It took the game from 1-0 to 8-0.

We had Rogers, Romo, and May *fully rested*, and we turn first to our most-taxed reliever from game 1. Did you read the link? Duffey's velo was down from game 1 (not surprising). And Gregorious specifically said he was seeing his pitches better, having already seen him in game 1 (not surprising).

I totally get Littell/Duffey in game 1. I'm not crazy about the Stashak/Gibson moves in game 1, but I can see a justification for that too -- but not if you're just going to go to Duffey again like that in game 2. The point of using Stashak/Gibson was to save Rogers/May/Romo so you wouldn't *have* to use Duffey like that again in game 2.


I just said it was a bad move..... That's one. One bad move.

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#31 Bomba2026

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Posted 09 October 2019 - 10:22 AM

I'm not so sure some of our Pitchers want to be here...I would definitely try and keep Odorizi.

#32 spycake

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Posted 09 October 2019 - 10:25 AM

 

I just said it was a bad move..... That's one. One bad move.

Not all bad moves are created equal. This one was bad from conception -- is there any valid argument to lean on Duffey again there? -- and it completely gave the game away in the 3rd inning, putting us in 0-2 series hole. (Plus the trickle-down effect, that using Duffey again in that spot largely contradicts/invalidates the Stashak/Gibson strategy of game 1, maybe even the Dobnak decision too.)

 

Compared to something like the Arraez vs Schoop decision -- even if one disagrees, I think one can see a valid argument for the other side. For all we know, Arraez's ankle was indeed fine and he simply misread the looper in game 1. And of course, that misplay alone wasn't all that meaningful, and was only magnified by the single, deep fly (advancing runner), double, and walk that Berrios surrendered to the subsequent 4 batters (the same 4 batters folks seem to want Berrios to have faced a third time, at 88 pitches, in the 5th inning), even before the Cron misplay on the potential double play. Not to mention that Arraez provided a run at the plate in the same game too.


#33 rghrbek

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Posted 09 October 2019 - 10:30 AM

 

On the Schoop/Arraez thing, I posted elsewhere, but I don't get that criticism either. Even as a "lefty masher" Schoop had basically the same AVG and a lower OBP vs LHP than Arraez this season, and Schoop's profile (power, strikeouts) was also largely redundant with several other pieces in our lineup. Arraez turned out to be one of our few effective bats this postseason, and perhaps his unique profile was a contributing factor -- the Yankees didn't seem to have an effective approach for him. (Schoop struck out in both of his pinch hit ABs, suggesting the general Yankee approach was working on him too.)

 

Furthermore, it looks like perhaps Schoop is exploitable in the postseason / pressure spots? Career postseason OPS of .346 before 2019. Others have noted he wasn't exactly "clutch" this year either (-1.10 WPA, -0.58 WPA/LI, both worst on the team, with career negative marks too). Last October the Brewers only started him 1 time, and used him as a pinch hitter 3 times, over 10 postseason games. He shouldn't be an automatic start in the postseason vs a LHP, or anyone, really.

 

I'm sure there's a point where Arraez's health may have warranted Schoop starting, but it's not clear to me that we were at that point, despite that looper dropping in the outfield in game 1.

 

No doubt Arraez bat was helpful (since not many other people hit in game two and 3).  

However, he was clearly limping in game one.  Didn't he hit into a DP in game one ( yes as well as a double)?  Didn't get to a ball that clearly started a Yankee rally, made a poor throw on an easy turn (yes Cron should make that play).  Also did not cover 2nd base on a double off the wall that came straight to Marwin and we had a chance to get him out at 2nd (Cron was running to get to 2nd base).

 

Subsequent games yes to playing Arraez and pinch hitting him once the Yankees game one starter was out.

 

Just saying you play the veteran there against the lefty and with the mitigating circumstances.


#34 awinter

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Posted 09 October 2019 - 10:58 AM

The 2nd guessing with the benefit of hindsight is fun, but I think it's safe to say in hindsight that the Yankees were a better team. 

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#35 Craig Arko

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Posted 09 October 2019 - 11:05 AM

Second-guessing? Hey, contraction in 2002 could have prevented all this needless suffering.

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#36 ashbury

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Posted 09 October 2019 - 11:49 AM

For all we know, Arraez's ankle was indeed fine

One look at Luis running down the first base line, in the second inning, had me saying "he ain't right." This is why I'm not willing to call it second-guessing - we could not possess that information until seeing him in action, but the manager and coaches had the opportunity to find out beforehand. Rocco was unfortunate, to have things unravel so visibly involving a couple of 2B plays in the top of the third, and if instead they had won the game then we probably wouldn't be discussing the starting lineup - but that still doesn't make it a second guess. Rocco weighed the information - lefty vs lefty, inferior defense, marginal ankle readiness - and made his choice. It's fair to question it.

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#37 BD57

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Posted 09 October 2019 - 12:23 PM

Bottom line - we didn't hit.Not nearly enough to be competitive.

 

The one game we were "competitive" - game #3 - we scored 1 run, and blew our best opportunity (bases loaded, no outs, got nothing).Championship teams score runs in those situations.

 

We don't have a #1.Berrios might be a #2, Odo might be a #2 - more of a #3 (and a good one), but we don't have a guy who blows people away.  

 

Some of it might be "our guys are inexperienced, and the Yankees aren't." We'll have to see about that.

 

First two games, though, we were just obviously over-matched, and it was a matter of "when is this going to blow up" .....I wish it was different, but it wasn't.


#38 Battle ur tail off

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Posted 09 October 2019 - 12:32 PM

 

 

First two games, though, we were just obviously over-matched, and it was a matter of "when is this going to blow up" .....I wish it was different, but it wasn't.

 

Do you remember game 1? We were up 2-0. The boys were hitting homeruns like that had all season. 

 

Bad stuff happened when our 1st baseman didn't catch a ball. Then it compounded when our manager made every bad decision possible when it came to handling the pitching staff. 

 

We should have won game 1, hands down. That happens, we are in a much different position. As it were, we lost a winnable game, got spanked in game 2(another game in which the pitching wasn't handled well) and then came home for game three knowing it was just a matter of time before or season was over. 

Edited by Battle ur tail off, 09 October 2019 - 12:33 PM.

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#39 spycake

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Posted 09 October 2019 - 12:44 PM

 

The one game we were "competitive" - game #3 - we scored 1 run, and blew our best opportunity (bases loaded, no outs, got nothing).Championship teams score runs in those situations.

 

Game 1 was competitive, for quite a while. It was 3-3 in the 5th with a full pen, and still 5-4 in the 6th with the same pen minus only Littell and Duffey.

 

The bats certainly disappeared after that, for most of the rest of the series. (Although it certainly didn't help matters that manager decisions put that game out of reach in the 6th and 7th, and the next one in the 3rd.)

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#40 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 09 October 2019 - 12:53 PM

(the same 4 batters folks seem to want Berrios to have faced a third time, at 88 pitches, in the 5th inning)

Yes. Send Berrios out for the fifth. Absolutely.

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