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Front Page: So Now What? Here's Twins Daily's Offseason Primer

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#21 Rosterman

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Posted 08 October 2019 - 09:04 AM

They need to open the purse strings a bit. Push towards that $160 million range. They can. If you win, people will come into the stands.

 

Again, I will say, they missed a BIG opportunity to add a couple of solid pieces at the last trade deadline. The strengths in the minor league system will ony diminish as players can't find 40-man roster spots and become minor league free agents.

 

I would talk with Pineda. I would also hold discussion with Odorizzi. You need to extend Berrios. Need to make a ecision on Rosario. Also, hard looks at where Buxton and Sano fit in the organization. You got another year to explore Buxton, but can you live with Sano and Gonzalez next year and not keep Cron? That's the off-season decision.

 

Get a front line starter. Will cost a lot of money. You could've traded for one (like Grienke, although would he have come to Minnesota was the question) and not tie up funs for 5-7 years. Of course, you always have the ability to trade long-contract players.

 

Back-up catcher. Another solid bat. At least two bullpen arms. You need to look at at least three rotation arms.

 

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#22 Vanimal46

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Posted 08 October 2019 - 09:10 AM

I don't think we'll see much change, honestly.

My guess is that they'll resign Pineda and we'll hear whispers about how the Twins are in on Cole, Strasburg, Bumgarner and Kuechel but they'll sign Ivan Nova or Tanner Roark on a two year deal. They'll also make a bargain bin grab of someone like Drew Smyly or such. I think this team is going to go into a Rays like rotation behind Berrios and Nova and have maybe three traditional starters and nine bullpen arms being used interchangeably and being shuttled to Rochester.

I think we'll trade Rosario and let Wade/Cave hold LF until Kiriloff or Larnach are ready - probably by July. We'll resign Cron and bring back Nelson and go with an IF of Cron, Arreaz, Polanco and Sano. I could see us bringing back Castro in a similar but slightly diminished role but if not him, we'll nab someone else to play 40% of the games behind the plate.

The team will hope for a healthy season from Sano and Buxton and continued high play from Kepler/Garver/Polanco. There is some regression in those three but the offense should still be pretty good and the AL central will be weak enough that we could be 10 games worse and probably still win the central next year.


Sounds about right. Just wait until 2021 when the Twins sign that top end free agent! Nothing's gonna stop us then!
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#23 Taildragger8791

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Posted 08 October 2019 - 09:16 AM

 

I don't think we'll see much change, honestly.

 

My guess is that they'll resign Pineda and we'll hear whispers about how the Twins are in on Cole, Strasburg, Bumgarner and Kuechel but they'll sign Ivan Nova or Tanner Roark on a two year deal. They'll also make a bargain bin grab of someone like Drew Smyly or such. I think this team is going to go into a Rays like rotation behind Berrios and Nova and have maybe three traditional starters and nine bullpen arms being used interchangeably and being shuttled to Rochester. 

 

I think we'll trade Rosario and let Wade/Cave hold LF until Kiriloff or Larnach are ready - probably by July. We'll resign Cron and bring back Nelson and go with an IF of Cron, Arreaz, Polanco and Sano. I could see us bringing back Castro in a similar but slightly diminished role but if not him, we'll nab someone else to play 40% of the games behind the plate. 

 

The team will hope for a healthy season from Sano and Buxton and continued high play from Kepler/Garver/Polanco. There is some regression in those three but the offense should still be pretty good and the AL central will be weak enough that we could be 10 games worse and probably still win the central next year.

 

Pretty much spot on what I expect as well. I like Rosario but I think this team would be better off getting some pitching for him and finding a replacement with better plate control and ideally better defensive chops.

 

They also need to make sure they have a quality backup CFer for when Buxton unnecessarily gets hurts running through a wall in a July game. The clown show they put on in the outfield in the ALDS exposed the suspect pitching that much more. This shouldn't be that hard and at this point it would be negligent not to plan for it.

 

Sano came a long ways this year but hopefully he spends all offseason working on handling high velocity and pitches up in the zone, as well as laying off those low/outside balls. Improve on that stuff a little and he'd be an absolute monster, but as it is his achilles heel was exploited by the postseason high octane pitching.


#24 Vanimal46

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Posted 08 October 2019 - 09:26 AM

Pretty much spot on what I expect as well. I like Rosario but I think this team would be better off getting some pitching for him and finding a replacement with better plate control and ideally better defensive chops.

They also need to make sure they have a quality backup CFer for when Buxton unnecessarily gets hurts running through a wall in a July game. The clown show they put on in the outfield in the ALDS exposed the suspect pitching that much more. This shouldn't be that hard and at this point it would be negligent not to plan for it.

Sano came a long ways this year but hopefully he spends all offseason working on handling high velocity and pitches up in the zone, as well as laying off those low/outside balls. Improve on that stuff a little and he'd be an absolute monster, but as it is his achilles heel was exploited by the postseason high octane pitching.


We have a disgusting amount of time now to discuss Rosario's trade value. To get a start on it, I don't think we're going to like it.

MLB player swaps rarely happen. What do we expect for a 1 WAR player on his last year of control? I doubt it's anything more than a Fernando Romero type... Someone who may have been a top prospect but struggling to live up to it.

#25 mikelink45

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Posted 08 October 2019 - 09:31 AM

I will be checking in on TD all fall and winter and again next season.I am hooked on baseball and this site is a positive part of each morning.The team will be different net year if nothing else the free agents that leave will change the make up of the team and the way the minor leaguers bang on the door will impact the team too.  

 

Somehow the FA and trademarket is always more talk than action so if they actually make a big move I will be pleasantly shocked. Trying to figure out the rotation is a real puzzle - and I would not resign Pineda - get better, don't repeat what did not work. Berrios, Graterol,??? is my rotation going forward.


#26 Jham

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Posted 08 October 2019 - 09:34 AM

If we're smart, we'll look at where we can upgrade as well as merely plugging holes.

I agree with those who think we'll push all in on the bull pen game strategy. My guess is that we decline Perez' option then resign to an extension. Graterol will still be on a count next year. Smeltzer and Dobnak will rotate through opening, primary, and long relief.

Technically, we'll gain an extra roster spot, but we're officially limited to 13 pitchers which we frequently carried anyway. But we lose some ability to shuttle as options are 15 day assignments from 10 days this year.

Personally, I think this method will backfire enormously. Human nature says we like routine and certainty, and that stress and anxiety is cumulative. Mental breaks are important. Mess with routines, and you risk getting the worst from your players instead of the max. (irony).

#27 Mike Sixel

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Posted 08 October 2019 - 09:42 AM

I can't think of one team in history that added three legit starting pitchers in one off season. I imagine not many have added two.....

I'm not interested in being in on players. That's been the line since McPhail left.

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#28 Rigby

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Posted 08 October 2019 - 09:54 AM

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#29 Taildragger8791

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Posted 08 October 2019 - 10:00 AM

 

If we're smart, we'll look at where we can upgrade as well as merely plugging holes.

I agree with those who think we'll push all in on the bull pen game strategy. My guess is that we decline Perez' option then resign to an extension. Graterol will still be on a count next year. Smeltzer and Dobnak will rotate through opening, primary, and long relief.

Technically, we'll gain an extra roster spot, but we're officially limited to 13 pitchers which we frequently carried anyway. But we lose some ability to shuttle as options are 15 day assignments from 10 days this year.

Personally, I think this method will backfire enormously. Human nature says we like routine and certainty, and that stress and anxiety is cumulative. Mental breaks are important. Mess with routines, and you risk getting the worst from your players instead of the max. (irony).

 

This seems crazy to me after we saw how poorly the bullpen strategy worked in the playoffs without a few starting pitchers that can at least get you 4-5 quality innings. You end up so far behind you don't even get a chance to throw your top relievers out there before the game is out of hand. Even the best bullpen can't cover 7 innings per night.

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#30 ashbury

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Posted 08 October 2019 - 10:00 AM

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#31 toosweet64

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Posted 08 October 2019 - 10:07 AM

I'll throw up my two cents because the wife won't listen...I'd talk contract with Odo but wouldn't do anything more than 3 years and the price would have to be right. I'd talk with Pineda as well but also wouldn't go longer than a few years. Offer MadBum 2 years at good money. Please do not even talk to Gibson. I think it's clear by now that Berrios isn't a #1. But he's a good #2. The Twins need to go out and find a #1. There isn't one in the system unless Graterol can prove he's a starter and not a future power reliever. They have the prospect depth to deal from and need to at least explore it. We're not paying Cole. The window is open now with Detroit, KC, and Chicago down and Cleveland showing signs of decline.Take advance of the weak division while you can and take your chances in the playoffs. 

 

Castro is gone (unless he's back on a cheaper deal). Tortuga as the back up. I'd consider letting Cron go and moving Sano to first. Let's be honest people, he's not a good third baseman. Marwin plays third. Polanco, Arreaz as your middle IFs, Ehire as back up. Trade Rosario (plus prospects) for pitching - Buxton, Kepler, and Kirilloff/Rooker, as the core OFs + 4th OF guy not named Jake Cave.  

 

Castro, Cron, Schoop, and Pineda off the books opens up money. Use it in the rotation and/or bullpen. I'd consider bringing Romo back, But go get a trusted veteran reliever as well. 

 

C: Garver, Turtle

1st: Sano

2nd: Arreaz

SS: Jorge

3rd: Marwin

OF: Kepler/Bux + Kirilloff/Rooker + 4th guy

DH: Cruz

 

Rotation: Berrios, Odo/MadBum, Graterol + FA + FA/Dobnak

 

Bullpen: Rodgers, May, Duffy, Romo, Littel, plus filler. Find a good LH reliever

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#32 Monkeypaws

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Posted 08 October 2019 - 10:09 AM

Hey John, gonna pick a nit :)

 

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#33 Taildragger8791

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Posted 08 October 2019 - 10:18 AM

 

We have a disgusting amount of time now to discuss Rosario's trade value. To get a start on it, I don't think we're going to like it.

MLB player swaps rarely happen. What do we expect for a 1 WAR player on his last year of control? I doubt it's anything more than a Fernando Romero type... Someone who may have been a top prospect but struggling to live up to it.

 

I don't expect to get a haul for Rosario, but I don't want to extend him either. This lineup could use some steadier bats/defense to compliment the boom/bust, so rather than let him walk I'd rather get something and at the same time see if they can replace one of their most volatile & impatient hitters. I like Rosario and his aggressiveness, he's definitely a gamer and gets big hits, but there just isn't enough upside in his bat at his position to accept the boom/bust outcomes.


#34 Battle ur tail off

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Posted 08 October 2019 - 10:25 AM

 

We have a disgusting amount of time now to discuss Rosario's trade value. To get a start on it, I don't think we're going to like it.

MLB player swaps rarely happen. What do we expect for a 1 WAR player on his last year of control? I doubt it's anything more than a Fernando Romero type... Someone who may have been a top prospect but struggling to live up to it.

 

Then just keep him. 

 

He's arbitration eligible, you don't know what to expect from the vaunted prospect gang. My guess is none of them can produce as well as Rosario has until they are 25-26. 

 

 


#35 Battle ur tail off

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Posted 08 October 2019 - 10:28 AM

 

I don't expect to get a haul for Rosario, but I don't want to extend him either. This lineup could use some steadier bats/defense to compliment the boom/bust, so rather than let him walk I'd rather get something and at the same time see if they can replace one of their most volatile & impatient hitters. I like Rosario and his aggressiveness, he's definitely a gamer and gets big hits, but there just isn't enough upside in his bat at his position to accept the boom/bust outcomes.

 

He can't just "walk" unless we want him to. I don't hand the keys to some prospect when I have the heart and soul of our team under my control. 

 

Keep Rosario. Bring up your other boys and give them a starting spot, expect about a .200/.300/.350 line. They aren't ready and will take a few years to acclimate either way. 


#36 Taildragger8791

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Posted 08 October 2019 - 10:37 AM

 

He can't just "walk" unless we want him to. I don't hand the keys to some prospect when I have the heart and soul of our team under my control. 

 

Keep Rosario. Bring up your other boys and give them a starting spot, expect about a .200/.300/.350 line. They aren't ready and will take a few years to acclimate either way. 

 

I thought he only had a year of arbitration left, my mistake. I wouldn't drop him just to count on a prospect to replace him, since I think pretty much all prospects are suspects until they prove otherwise in the majors. If they find a stopgap free agent for a year or two that would be ideal. Use his $5-$6 million he'll get in arbitration towards a hitter that provides a steady presence in the heart of the order rather than his swing-from-the-heels-on-a-ball-thrown-at-his-eyes boom/bust style.


#37 jaimedude2

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Posted 08 October 2019 - 11:59 AM

I see all of the talk of trading Rosario and don't like it. To me he is more of a core guy than Miguel Sano. Sano is still young enough and talented enough that you should be able to use him to trade for starting pitching. Buxton is a trade chip too.

#38 Channing1964

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Posted 08 October 2019 - 12:23 PM

I havent had a lot of time to think about it. Im not going to say what everuone prolly thinks I'll say(and thats to fire the Falvines). For all the griping we all did, the pitching was a big reason why we won 101 games. A lot of those home runs did not come in clutch situations. When i think back to some of the best offenses i have ever seen in my life the '75-77 Red Sox and the 88-90 A's come to mind. I get it that statistically there were better ones but those two stick in my mind. I think they have one championship total. We all know we need some pitchers. Aside from getting Cole....who would get us over the hump? A year ago we were waiting for a window. Now I feel like we have a one year window. Things will never be the same once Nellie retires. We should have the same offense. Maybe Kiriloff can beat out Cron. Buxton we hope will be back healthy. I do not see a reason to do anything but leave the offense alone. $o say we have 70 million we can spend ....what would you do? I for one would want Odorizzi and Pineda back(yes Pineda). You cant sign Polanco to an extension then shun big Mike for the same thing. Minnesotans are never, ever hypocrites. How can we improve on 101 wins? Berrios will be back. Can we take a chance on Gibson? I would. in a reduced role. Cole would be a great ace. Other ones are available too. If we wanna take the next step it ses obvious that we need 1 (or2) top flight starters and maybe another lights out left handed reliever. We have the money. Please? Let's not do some dumb newsmaking trade for Mookie Betts bull$hit. it really isnt broken....lets just upgrade it.

#39 Mike Sixel

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Posted 08 October 2019 - 12:25 PM

I see all of the talk of trading Rosario and don't like it. To me he is more of a core guy than Miguel Sano. Sano is still young enough and talented enough that you should be able to use him to trade for starting pitching. Buxton is a trade chip too.


Rosario is a slightly below average corner outfielder with two years of control left. They also have two top 75 corner outfield prospects. Rosario is also more expensive than Buxton or Sano. That matters to a team with a budget.
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It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#40 Channing1964

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Posted 08 October 2019 - 12:27 PM

RIP 2019 Twins...thanks for the great memories!
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