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Article: Five Offseason Predictions

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#1 Nick Nelson

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Posted 23 October 2012 - 11:20 PM

You can view the page at http://www.twinsdail...son-Predictions

#2 Shane Wahl

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Posted 23 October 2012 - 11:41 PM

I agree with 1,3, and 4 in the should category. In terms of "will" you are probably right. And I think that is unfortunate.

By the way, where is Doyle. Is he in Japan? Um, can the Twins sign him?

#3 old nurse

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Posted 24 October 2012 - 12:05 AM

I would predict that any pitcher looking for a one year contract to better themselves while earning a good payday will contact the Twins. There will be one pitcher out there not happy with the offers.

#4 JP3700

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Posted 24 October 2012 - 01:59 AM

I hope you're right on all 5 predictions Nick. I'm also a big fan of Span, so I too will be dissapointed. I just hope they can identify a young cost controlled pitcher that can make me get over it. I hope this is how the starting pitching situation gets handled:

1. They bring back Scott Baker. Terry Ryan stated that he wants to bring him back so that's good news.
2. Your first prediction comes through and they're aggressive and sign a solid pitcher.
3. They identify a young MLB ready arm for Span and we roll with him.
4. Sign Carlos Villanueva for flexibility. He would start out the season as a starter but he's insurance for Scott Baker's recovery, Kyle Gibson's innings limit and if Hendriks or the young arm acquired fall flat on their face. If everything goes well, he's a solid reliever.

Opening day:
FA
Scott Diamond
Carlos Villanueva
Pitcher from Span trade
Liam Hendriks

-Scott Baker hopefully ready by May.
-Kyle Gibson starts in AAA with limited innings/pitch count per start until he's "ready for the majors" aka when he won't be eligible for super 2 status ;)

I think this is realistic and sticks within the assumed budget.

#5 sorney

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Posted 24 October 2012 - 06:12 AM

I miss Span already

#6 stringer bell

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Posted 24 October 2012 - 08:16 AM

While I agree that Casilla will be non-tendered, I wish they wouldn't. I think Casilla would be their best option at second and would offer excellent speed and defense to the team.

#7 ThePuck

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Posted 24 October 2012 - 08:53 AM

While I agree that Casilla will be non-tendered, I wish they wouldn't. I think Casilla would be their best option at second and would offer excellent speed and defense to the team.


He's been given a starting job multiple times and hasn't done anything to keep it. I believe it's time to cut bait, though I do like his defense now.

#8 Boom Boom

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Posted 24 October 2012 - 09:34 AM

Re #1 - that big name pitcher will be Scott Baker.

#9 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 24 October 2012 - 09:57 AM

While I agree that Casilla will be non-tendered, I wish they wouldn't. I think Casilla would be their best option at second and would offer excellent speed and defense to the team.


He's been given a starting job multiple times and hasn't done anything to keep it. I believe it's time to cut bait, though I do like his defense now.


Casilla has actually gotten worse with age. For a stretch, he put up pretty good numbers over half seasons of play. Now, he can't even do that. The guy had his opportunities and did nothing with them. It's time to move on.

#10 JB_Iowa

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Posted 24 October 2012 - 10:20 AM

I hope that they sign one pretty good FA pitcher early as Nick suggests and that they then sign another later who agrees to a one-year contract because he can't get a better offer elsewhere. (If they get 2 in the latter category, that's even better). As for salary, I still think it will be $91-$94 million but $100 million isn't unthinkable.

I really want to see them make a successful trade or two this winter. I feel like all they have done in recent years is make a few (and I mean few) off-season trades or deadline deals to rid themselves of their self-perceived problems (whether that they didn't like the person or they didn't want to offer arbitration or whatever).

I'd like to see a trade or two that is genuinely focused on improving the ballclub - a realization that you have to be willing to give something decent to get a decent return. I suspect that Span will be part of that but I'll take Terry Ryan at his word that ANYONE except Mauer could be part of that. I don't think that Span alone would bring back a ML-ready starting pitcher (at least not one that most of us hope for). So we need to see if the Twins brass still have the skills, contacts and guts to put together a meaningful package deal.

More than the free agent signings, I want to see if the Twins still have the ability to make a successful trade (realizing that we may not know how successful it was for several years).

Edited by JB_Iowa, 24 October 2012 - 10:23 AM.


#11 greengoblinrulz

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Posted 24 October 2012 - 10:50 AM

I hope you're right on all 5 predictions Nick. I'm also a big fan of Span, so I too will be dissapointed. I just hope they can identify a young cost controlled pitcher that can make me get over it. I hope this is how the starting pitching situation gets handled:

1. They bring back Scott Baker. Terry Ryan stated that he wants to bring him back so that's good news.
2. Your first prediction comes through and they're aggressive and sign a solid pitcher.
3. They identify a young MLB ready arm for Span and we roll with him.
4. Sign Carlos Villanueva for flexibility. He would start out the season as a starter but he's insurance for Scott Baker's recovery, Kyle Gibson's innings limit and if Hendriks or the young arm acquired fall flat on their face. If everything goes well, he's a solid reliever.

Opening day:
FA
Scott Diamond
Carlos Villanueva
Pitcher from Span trade
Liam Hendriks

-Scott Baker hopefully ready by May.
-Kyle Gibson starts in AAA with limited innings/pitch count per start until he's "ready for the majors" aka when he won't be eligible for super 2 status ;)

I think this is realistic and sticks within the assumed budget.

Baker is on the Adam Wainright projection & will be ready (without any setbacks) to start opening day. He shouldnt have any innings limit either, like they'll give Gibson, as veterans generally don have em.

#12 DAM DC Twins Fans

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Posted 24 October 2012 - 01:17 PM

I agree with all 5. I am hoping that Alexei is signed back at a lower salary after being non-tendered to work with Dozier/Florimon. I think he can be good in the 5th IF role.

The key to your 5 to me is the rule 5 draft. Thats how we got Johan and I think thats how we got Diamond. Ryan seems to come up with gems there.

I am not optimistic on the FA pitcher--none outside of Greinke look like aces to me. Most look like Pavano or worse.

#13 Cris E

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Posted 24 October 2012 - 01:31 PM

I think 1,2 and 3 will happen all at once, and the best pitcher they get will be via trade. It'll be Span + youth for an MLB player that carries a decent sized salary. We have a raft of good CF scattered across the organization and there are several pitching-rich teams that we line up with. If we're willing to take on salary, and we appear to have room, we won't have to give up full value in the trade. They'll also sign a good FA starter, but nothing from the top shelf.

#14 glunn

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Posted 24 October 2012 - 06:12 PM

I am hoping that all 5 can happen.

#15 Fire Dan Gladden

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Posted 24 October 2012 - 06:53 PM

I highly doubt Casilla will be back. I would like to see him moved in a trade for some high risk A-ball pitcher at least, or just DFA him. He will be offered money by some team .
As much as Span is the "big" trade candidate, I still have a tough time seeing him traded. Good defense, good offense, cheap... just the type of player we need around here.
I think the Twins are more apt to sign pitchers than trade away any of their current position players. Doumit, Mauer, Willingham, Carroll produce more than their salary. Revere, Parmalee, Plouffe too young/cheap to move. Morneau could stay just as easily go, can't see them selling very low on him. Nobody else is a current core player, their leaving would be negligible.
The only moves I can see would be in a situation where they would improve over their current player. I don't see many situations (other than 2B) where the Twins could do that and still keep costs relatively low.
If the Twins are able to sign a few Marcum types, and stay healthy for once, I think you will see a quick and large rise in their win total.

#16 kab21

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Posted 24 October 2012 - 07:40 PM

My biggest concerns are #1 and #2. i'm all for signing a good pitcher but usually if you sign a player early then you've agreed to the player's terms instead of using a month or two to negotiate. I also think the writing is on the wall for Span and they've made it obvious that they're dealing him and that they will take the any best offer.

#17 one_eyed_jack

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Posted 24 October 2012 - 07:48 PM

Hope you're right on all but Span. Trading Span for pitching seems to be the trendy idea, but I'm not sure I buy that's it's the right thing to do. I agree though both that it will happen and that whatever we get in return will probably be less than what most people are hoping/expecting.

#18 YourHouseIsMyHouse

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Posted 25 October 2012 - 10:55 AM

Hope you're right on all but Span. Trading Span for pitching seems to be the trendy idea, but I'm not sure I buy that's it's the right thing to do. I agree though both that it will happen and that whatever we get in return will probably be less than what most people are hoping/expecting.


I highly agree with this. I'd rather see a deal for Willingham being made. He's not as valuable, but teams may be willing to offer just as much as Span would fetch.

#19 Alex

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Posted 25 October 2012 - 12:40 PM

Hope you're right on all but Span. Trading Span for pitching seems to be the trendy idea, but I'm not sure I buy that's it's the right thing to do. I agree though both that it will happen and that whatever we get in return will probably be less than what most people are hoping/expecting.


I highly agree with this. I'd rather see a deal for Willingham being made. He's not as valuable, but teams may be willing to offer just as much as Span would fetch.


Willingham's not as valuable? Willingham's defense has certainly hurt him and Span's contract is better, but in terms of offense, I think some people would be surprised that Willingham had the better OBP (which is really Span's value as a bat), and of course, combine that with power and you've got a much more valuable offensive player. Overall, WAR is better for Span, but I'd bet that most teams would rather have Willingham.

That said, while it's the popular notion to trade Span for pitching, my guess is he hasn't been worth that or we'd have seen a trade already.

Don't get me wrong, I believe that if the Twins can get something valuable for either, they should make the move, but Span has a skillset where the Twins have some depth while that isn't true of Willingham. He's the only Twin to hit 35 HR since Killibrew). Considering that most of them (21) came at Target Field, a place where guys like Cuddyer and Kubel whined about the park, Willingham is much more valuable to the Twins than Span. No way should they consider trading Willingham over Span, but they should certainly entertain offers on both.

#20 ThePuck

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Posted 25 October 2012 - 04:24 PM

I don't remember Cuddyer ever whining about the ability to hit HR at TF. If he did, that'd be interesting since the two years his home park was TF he hit exactly the same amount of HR at home as on the road...

I remember Morneau speaking for the team about it...and getting ridiculed for daring to do so...even though, at the time, he was having an MVP type season that ended up getting derailed by the concussion

#21 Rosterman

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Posted 28 October 2012 - 09:29 AM

Even with the absolute miserable spring, would've been interesting if the Twins had stuck with Doyle as the last man in the bullpen. He had a decent year between AAA and Japan. You just never know. Instead, we kept Maloney and Jeff Gray.