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Front Page: Twins ALDS Game 1 Recap: Bad Defense, Questionable Management Leads to Loss

jose berrios jorge polanco miguel sano neslon cruz cody stashak
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#121 Sam Morley

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Posted 05 October 2019 - 04:21 PM

 

As Sun Tsu once said, "If your enemy wants help with a selfie, be sure to cut off his head." 

 

Now, during the game I admittedly lost my cool, and there's really never a good time to do that. With regards to pitchers throwing their first pitch at the head of a Yankee batter, I hope nobody took this seriously. I meant it as a metaphor for the general practice of using violence in sports. 

 

That said, none other than Uncle Bert has often advocated "pitching inside," which assumes a certain risk of going a little too far inside. If guys like Stashak and Littell and Graterol and Duffey pitch inside to the Yankees, it might reduce the size of their smug grins as these hitters lean out over the plate, ready to extend their arms for yet another home run. 

 

On such occasions I ask nobody deliberately to harm a fellow baseball player. All I ask Twins pitchers is to consider what really good pitchers have done about such things in the past. What would Bob Gibson do? 

Bob Gibson would probably deliberately harm a fellow baseball player


#122 Sam Morley

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Posted 05 October 2019 - 04:29 PM

 

Everyone knows the Twins pitching is suspect. Even with the improved bullpen down the stretch the playoffs will expose the weaknesses. The only way the Twins are going to win this year in the playoffs is if they out-slug the other teams. They won't out-pitch them. Berrios would be a #4 or #5 starter in Houston or on the Dodgers. The rest of the starters wouldn't even make their rosters. With a rusty Kepler and Cron and a free-swinging only give me 1 good at bat per game Rosario, the rest of the lineup has their work cut out for them.  

THIS


#123 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 05 October 2019 - 05:05 PM

I agree. The only reason for not sending Berrios out for the 5th might be because they plan on using him in game 4. Perhaps they will use an opener for 2 innings, have Berrios pitch 4 innings, then go to their top dogs in the bullpen for the last 3. If that isn't then plan, then he should have gone back out for the 5th.


Maybe, but at some point you have to play to win a game or you aren't going to have a game 4 to save him for.
I'm not a fan of saving someone for a situation that may never come. Win the game you have a chance to win, and cross hypothetical bridges when you get to them.
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#124 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 05 October 2019 - 05:30 PM

Agree, the Yankees best reliever in 2017 was arguably Chad Green, and they brought him in in the first inning in the Wild Card game that year.
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#125 ashbury

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Posted 05 October 2019 - 05:36 PM

Mid-game, I saw that as a winnable game. It's no longer "the long season", and you don't know what tomorrow may bring. You could be ahead 8-0 in the fifth inning of the next game, or you could be behind 8-0 - but in the moment, not tomorrow but today, it was 3-3. Go for it, and let tomorrow take care of itself.

This one, unfortunately, aged too well. I actually had originally typed "third inning", but wimped out because I was talking about the fifth inning decision of Game 1.

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#126 NorthwestTwinsFan

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Posted 05 October 2019 - 06:02 PM

 

Maybe, but at some point you have to play to win a game or you aren't going to have a game 4 to save him for.
I'm not a fan of saving someone for a situation that may never come. Win the game you have a chance to win, and cross hypothetical bridges when you get to them.

I totally agree with you. I was just trying to come up with the only possible explanation for pulling him an inning early.


#127 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 05 October 2019 - 09:00 PM

It's a good thing we didn't use our best pitchers in the game that was actually close and winnable at one point.

#128 ewen21

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Posted 06 October 2019 - 09:28 AM

 

It's a good thing we didn't use our best pitchers in the game that was actually close and winnable at one point.

How are we blaming managerial decisions for what we are facing now?Just who the heck should we have gone with and do you really believe it would have made a difference?The best you can do is say I DON'T KNOW.What we know right now is this Yankee lineup is the best in the game, bar none.We don't stack up against it.Period.  

 

Whine all you want about a decision here and a decision there.That's easy to do if you want to do it.Maybe they were not the right decisions, maybe if we did what you wanted we might have been a little better off (maybe worse off). We are down 2-0 because the Yankees hitters are way WAY better than anything we have to put on the hill AND our bats have not shown up.The Twins have also showed yet again that the "none of these guys were here when we lost all these games in the post season" rationale means nothing.

 

This is not a bizarre random sports anomaly.At this point, we need to admit there is something broken in the mindset this organization (and possibly the fan base) has.In the midst of failure people are denying it.We are trying to make it about managerial moves over anything the players have done and that is straight up denial if you ask me.

Edited by ewen21, 06 October 2019 - 09:31 AM.


#129 spycake

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Posted 07 October 2019 - 07:22 AM

Sorry I'm just catching up on the conversation...

 

I'd assume Dobnak is going tonight and I assume that Smeltzer will piggyback on tonight as well. I'm guessing that Odorizzi would be going tonight had they won Game 1. Don't want a bullpen game in a potential 0-2 hole 

Doesn't this have it backwards? Isn't it much more important to *avoid* the 0-2 hole, rather than worry about who starts for you in game 3 if/when it gets to 0-2?


#130 spycake

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Posted 07 October 2019 - 07:36 AM

Again, catching up...

 

All games are still winnable. This one had the Yankees at 93.7% win expectancy at the time Gibson entered. If today was an off day I am taking my chances on the Twins side of that percent. There is a game today and relievers in general do not do as well on 0 days rest. That certainly is true for the Twins relievers and their 5.38 ERA on no rest.

 

Does that 93.7% reflect the current run scoring / HR environment? Not that it would make a huge difference, but the odds of making up 3 runs in 2 innings in 2019 would presumably be slightly greater than a few years ago, or perhaps even seasons with higher scoring but a lower HR rate.

 

Not that I think bringing in Gibson was necessarily the biggest mistake -- leaving him in to give up 3 runs was definitely a mistake, though. Our win expectancy was down to 1% by the end of that inning. Gibson should have had some kind of hook, and 3 walks with the top of the Yankees lineup coming up again should have triggered it. By that point, we were going to need someone else to pitch the 9th regardless, might as well ask them to get an extra out rather than trying to milk a single extra out from Gibby.

 

An even bigger mistake was probably using Stashak in a 1-run game -- his inning took our win expectancy down from 26% to 11%. (And when it was still a 1-run game in the top of the 6th, simply getting a runner on 1st with no outs got our win expectancy up to 40% -- that will be lower with fewer outs remaining, of course, but it illustrates the real value in keeping it a 1-run game.)


#131 Puckett34

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Posted 07 October 2019 - 07:37 AM

 

Sorry I'm just catching up on the conversation...

 

Doesn't this have it backwards? Isn't it much more important to *avoid* the 0-2 hole, rather than worry about who starts for you in game 3 if/when it gets to 0-2?

My original thought was that Dobnak was a decent enough ground ball pitcher whereas Odorizzi is a fly ball pitcher. Take that for what it is with the results. I'm not so sure Odorizzi would've had better results. We'll never know.

 

Not sure if I agreed with it, but now I have the benefit of hindsight.

Hit dingers. Never bunt.

#132 spycake

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Posted 07 October 2019 - 07:59 AM

 

My original thought was that Dobnak was a decent enough ground ball pitcher whereas Odorizzi is a fly ball pitcher. Take that for what it is with the results. I'm not so sure Odorizzi would've had better results. We'll never know.

 

Not sure if I agreed with it, but now I have the benefit of hindsight.

GB/FB numbers are worth considering, but for one game, it's really hard to predict their effects (see Odorizzi's starts vs NY already this year).

 

I can't see GB% trumping the other basic factors, such as having a fully rested pen available for game 3 instead of just a mostly rested pen for game 2. (Or looking ahead, having the game 2 starter available on full rest for a potential game 5 -- which we were more likely to need after losing game 1.)


#133 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 07 October 2019 - 10:03 AM

 

GB/FB numbers are worth considering, but for one game, it's really hard to predict their effects (see Odorizzi's starts vs NY already this year).

 

I can't see GB% trumping the other basic factors, such as having a fully rested pen available for game 3 instead of just a mostly rested pen for game 2. (Or looking ahead, having the game 2 starter available on full rest for a potential game 5 -- which we were more likely to need after losing game 1.)

To me, it boils down to this simple premise:

 

To avoid going down 0-2, you use your best pitchers and worry about tomorrow after the game.

 

That means Odorizzi to start and throwing every good bullpen arm into the game in whatever order gives you the best chance of getting outs.

 

It's the postseason. The first concern is to not lose a single game. The rest comes after that.

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#134 SpicyGarvSauce

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Posted 07 October 2019 - 10:56 AM

Didn't bother reading through this thread and becoming depressed, but it was quite obvious what the game plan for both teams was...

 

Twins were looking to get the Yankees to chase pitches outside the strike zone, and the Yankees weren't going to take the bait. The Twins pitchers were constantly behind in counts, and had to throw pitches in the zone, and the Yankee hitters knew. Really, it was quite obvious the Twins were so concerned with the Yankee hitters, and they have pitched scared. This entire series. Rather than attacking these guys in the zone, in their weak/cool spots, they opted to throw pitches out of the zone and try to get them to chase. No luck, and it has turned out terribly for the Twins.

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#135 ewen21

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Posted 07 October 2019 - 05:23 PM

Here we are talking about the pitching, meanwhile our vaunted offense has scored 6 runs in the first two games.We were playing in a bandbox against two pitchers who are far from unhittable.

 

Score some damn runs!

 

In the last 11 post season games we have scored a total of 26 runs.How about this vaunted offense show some balls tonight?This team looks like the other teams to me.They are playing scared and are taking stupid unfocused at bats.It was no secret what this team was supposed to do.They have not done it yet.

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#136 ewen21

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Posted 07 October 2019 - 05:26 PM

This is a freakin team effort.Seems to me when we cite isolated defensive plays and managerial moves it is way to simply things to make it appear that we are only a click on the dial away.

 

Well....we were so damn far away from having a chance in NY it wasn't even funny.That is soup to nuts, top to bottom, every single aspect.

Edited by ewen21, 07 October 2019 - 05:35 PM.


#137 ashbury

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Posted 07 October 2019 - 06:00 PM

This is a freakin team effort.Seems to me when we cite isolated defensive plays and managerial moves it is way to simply things to make it appear that we are only a click on the dial away.

 

Well....we were so damn far away from having a chance in NY it wasn't even funny.That is soup to nuts, top to bottom, every single aspect.

Usually I agree with not getting carried away with the analysis.

 

But, you know this old nursery rhyme:

For want of a nail the shoe was lost.
For want of a shoe the horse was lost.
For want of a horse the rider was lost.
For want of a rider the message was lost.
For want of a message the battle was lost.
For want of a battle the kingdom was lost.
And all for the want of a horseshoe nail.

 

It's not second guessing to want Schoop in place of Arraez against a lefty - you get the better defense as a freebie. Events played out in about the worst possible way, in the third inning, nevertheless they did happen, and there's every reason to think that Berrios's first four innings go a little better with Schoop in there. That allows Jose to try the fifth, maybe even the sixth. Needing to cover only four innings or fewer, might remove the need to try Littell, who also provided nearly worst-case results. After it was 5-3, it was like Rocco folded his hand, hoping for a better opportunity for his key bullpen pieces another night. Turns out that was the winnable game, of the two. We might be down 0-2 anyway, but we gave up that first one without much of a fight, while still at mid-game.

 

Arraez's first scamper down the first-base line told me all I needed to know, information that surely Rocco and company possessed before I did. Even without the gimpy ankle on Luis, I might want to support my game 1 starter with the better defensive second baseman.

 

For want of a nail.

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