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Front Page: Looking at When Odorizzi Should Pitch in the Playoffs

jake odorizzi jose berrios randy dobnak martin perez rocco baldelli
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#21 mendozaline

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Posted 03 October 2019 - 10:12 AM

I think Dobnak is better suited to throw at Yankee Stadium than Odo. I'm predicting Dobnak goes 5.1 giving up 2 runs in whichever game he starts and we have a 3-2 or 4-2 lead when he exits. He just seems to get the job done lately. 

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#22 ashbury

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Posted 03 October 2019 - 11:43 AM

Which of our 'aces' is more likely to lose it quickly?

I think there is a high chance of either Berrios or Odorizzi giving up early runs, but I also trust them to bear down and put that behind them. If their stuff is good, I hope the manager doesn't give either of them the early hook. But you can't afford to be down 6-0 in the third inning either. The hook does have to be quicker than in the regular season. The good news, if any, is that an early shower could mean a second chance sooner in the same series.

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#23 Number3

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Posted 03 October 2019 - 12:19 PM

Typical pre game type of discussionbut who pitches what game is far less important than how who ever pitches what game is able to execute their pitches and, above all, be the aggressor on the mound as opposed to being afraid of balls flying over the fences. I can still see Ervin Santana taking the mound with a 2-0 lead in the first inning and having no idea where the strike zone was or, worse, being afraid to throw a strike. Just go get 'em.


#24 wavedog

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Posted 03 October 2019 - 12:26 PM

I think I would lean to Odorizzi in Game 1, Dobnak in game 2 and then Berrios at Home.I don't know this as fact but I am guessing Odorizzi would handle the pressure of the first start better and he has pitched better down the stretch. Dobnak I want for Yankee stadium since he is more prone to throw grounders. Not sure what to do for Game #4 if necessary. Since the series is play 2 games then a day rest, play 2 games then a day rest I think our best relievers can go back-to-back games if we want to have game #4 be a reliever game.All hands on deck for game #5


#25 yarnivek1972

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Posted 03 October 2019 - 01:28 PM

As I've said from the beginning:

I do not choose my game two starter until game one is finished.

If the Twins lose game one, I put Odorizzi on the mound for game two because I don't want to go to Minnesota down 0-2 and he gives me the best chance of not doing that.

If I'm up 1-0, Odo pitches game three because running bullpen games back-to-back is probably a bad idea.


If that is true, he should start game one. I don’t happen to believe it’s true. Most of the Yankee hitters have seen Odorizzi. A lot. No one has seen Dobnak. Scouts only can tell you so much. Until you actually stand in against the guy, you just don’t know what to expect.

I would go Odorizzi, Dobnak, Berrios. Simply because I think Berrios is the guy who will most “feed” off the home crowd.

I also don’t agree with “wait and see” before setting the next game starter. There’s a reason why literally no team does that. Ever. Sure, injuries and rainouts can cause a rotation to get shuffled during the season. But teams don’t do it needlessly.

#26 Zephrin

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Posted 03 October 2019 - 02:40 PM

I guess my question is could they piggyback Berrios/Odo in Game 1 a la Scherzer/Strasburg?It is my understanding that Stras will pitch again early in the LDS because they treated the Wild Card game as a side-session day.If that is possible, I might go Berrios for 2 trips through the lineup and if the game is going the Twins way back him up with Odo for 2 innings to bridge the middle innings.Then, he can come back and Start Game 3.Dobnak gets Game 2.if the game is not going the Twins way they can mop up Game 1 and start Odo Game 2. 

 


#27 Zephrin

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Posted 03 October 2019 - 02:44 PM

Remember, with the rest days both the Game 1 and Game 2 starters are available for Game 5, unless Game 1 starter comes back and pitches Game 4 on short rest, which seems unlikely unless the Twins are down 2-1 and they need someone to go on short rest to try to survive to Game 5.  


#28 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 03 October 2019 - 06:18 PM

I guess my question is could they piggyback Berrios/Odo in Game 1 a la Scherzer/Strasburg? It is my understanding that Stras will pitch again early in the LDS because they treated the Wild Card game as a side-session day. If that is possible, I might go Berrios for 2 trips through the lineup and if the game is going the Twins way back him up with Odo for 2 innings to bridge the middle innings. Then, he can come back and Start Game 3. Dobnak gets Game 2. if the game is not going the Twins way they can mop up Game 1 and start Odo Game 2.


Two trips through the order is 70+ pitches.
Zero chance Berrios throws 70 pitches, then starts again on 2 days rest.

#29 yarnivek1972

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Posted 03 October 2019 - 07:01 PM

Two trips through the order is 70+ pitches.
Zero chance Berrios throws 70 pitches, then starts again on 2 days rest.


Sandy Koufax pitched a shutout in game 5 of the 1965 World Series and then another in game 7, on 2 days rest. I can’t find pitch count data, but I’d guess 110-120 each.

But, that is why he is Sandy Koufax and no one else is.

#30 DannySD

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Posted 03 October 2019 - 08:39 PM

I'd definitely save him for game 3 for all the talked about reasons, because I think thatmakes game 3, with the excitement of coming back to Target Field, as close to an automatic win as you can get in this series. And then he would be available in relief in game 5. Maybe even an inning in game 1 instead of his bullpen. Split in the Bronx, win games 3 and 4 behind Odorizzi and the bullpen. That is our best chance. 


#31 DocBauer

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Posted 03 October 2019 - 08:41 PM

Gut tells me Berrios starts game 1. I don't know what the Twins braintrust and analytics tell them. If my crystal ball was working, and it told me a "sharp" Berrios would be on the mound for game 1, I'd definitely go with him. One game this season in Yankee stadium, vs career numbers, tells my Odorizzi and that short RF porch aren't a great match.

I think Brock is right about game 2.

I HATE to do this, but let us assume the "sharp" Berrios, pen and hitters win game 1. It would seem natural to put your next best SP out there for game 2. But again, history, I think I agree on Dobnak, more of a groundball pitcher, for game 2 and a potential bullpen game.

That puts Oddo in charge of game 3 at home, with a day of rest for guys used in the pen to be ready to go.
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#32 Zephrin

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Posted 04 October 2019 - 09:01 AM

 

Two trips through the order is 70+ pitches.
Zero chance Berrios throws 70 pitches, then starts again on 2 days rest.

 

Yes, but I was suggesting that Berrios goes 2 trips through the order and turns it over to Odo for a couple innings.If Odo throws 30-35 pitches over 2 innings he could come back and pitch Game 3.I agree that if either pitcher goes 2 trips/4-5 innings they are done until at least Game 4.  


#33 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 04 October 2019 - 09:28 AM

Yes, but I was suggesting that Berrios goes 2 trips through the order and turns it over to Odo for a couple innings. If Odo throws 30-35 pitches over 2 innings he could come back and pitch Game 3. I agree that if either pitcher goes 2 trips/4-5 innings they are done until at least Game 4.


Ah, my bad, misread it.

I think I'd rather have Odor for 100 pitches once, than 35 twice.

#34 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 04 October 2019 - 09:31 AM

 

Ah, my bad, misread it.

I think I'd rather have Odor for 100 pitches once, than 35 twice.

Especially on a team that plans to throw two bullpen games in a five game series. Odorizzi and Berrios are needed to stabilize the bullpen and not burn the wick at both ends.


#35 ashbury

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Posted 04 October 2019 - 09:49 AM

Especially on a team that plans to throw two bullpen games in a five game series. Odorizzi and Berrios are needed to stabilize the bullpen and not burn the wick at both ends.

Agreed, but it's in some ways even simpler than that. During the long season the manager and pitching coach make compromises between winning an individual game versus conserving the arms. This is the time of year they've been saving for. We want the maximum number of effective innings, and Odorizzi and Berrios represent our best chances for getting them. If it doesn't work, then the braintrust goes to Plan B, but the easiest path to a title involves these two guys pulling a heavy load.

 

If they are making their pitches, then leave them in, even if the results don't match up. At least, for longer than for anyone else on the staff.

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