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Article: Don't Forget Dozier

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#1 Seth Stohs

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Posted 23 October 2012 - 09:31 AM

You can view the page at http://www.twinsdail...t-forget-Dozier

#2 Boom Boom

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Posted 23 October 2012 - 10:06 AM

After watching Dozier play, I think his future is at second base. If he can hit some. I don't think he's got the range or the arm to make it as a shortstop long-term, but I wouldn't give up on him as a possible contributor in the near future.

#3 nick5253

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Posted 23 October 2012 - 10:21 AM

I seem to be in the minority, but I am fine with Florimon at short. I think either Span or Revere is going to be moved this offseason, so that will open a spot for another power guy in RF so the Twins would really only have the 8/9 spots in the lineup as a weekness which could be reserved for the middle infielders. And given the pitching staff, I would trot out the best middle infielders possible and sacrifice offense.

This would be my lineup (assuming a Span trade):
Revere (CF), Mauer ©, Willingham (LF), Morneau (1B), Doumit (DH), Parmelee (RF), Plouffe (3B), Dozier (2B), Florimon (SS)

Or if Carroll is your guy at 2nd base, he could hit 2nd or 8th.

#4 ThePuck

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Posted 23 October 2012 - 10:47 AM

After watching Dozier play, I think his future is at second base. If he can hit some. I don't think he's got the range or the arm to make it as a shortstop long-term, but I wouldn't give up on him as a possible contributor in the near future.


Fangraphs lists Dozier's range at .796. That puts him between Aybar and Reyes. Florimon at .757.

#5 Boom Boom

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Posted 23 October 2012 - 11:02 AM

After watching Dozier play, I think his future is at second base. If he can hit some. I don't think he's got the range or the arm to make it as a shortstop long-term, but I wouldn't give up on him as a possible contributor in the near future.


Fangraphs lists Dozier's range at .796. That puts him between Aybar and Reyes. Florimon at .757.


Fangraphs lists lots of things, including numbers that are meaningless or can be misleading.

Dozier's UZR was -1.2 and Florimon's was 1.4.

#6 ThePuck

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Posted 23 October 2012 - 11:14 AM

Fangraphs lists lots of things, including numbers that are meaningless or can be misleading.

Dozier's UZR was -1.2 and Florimon's was 1.4.


Yeah, I thought we were talking range...but yeah, I get that a lot of people throw out stats as meaningless when they don't support their views.

In any event, we also have Florimon who averaged 40+ errors per 162 games in the minors...and jumped right on board with making errors when he was brought up. I don't really judge people on errors or fielding percentage, but that's still a huge amount. Couple that with poor range, and I doubt he's good enough to be a major league starting shortstop.

Edited by ThePuck, 23 October 2012 - 11:18 AM.


#7 Willihammer

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Posted 23 October 2012 - 11:50 AM

RZR stands for revised zone rating. It is the percentage of balls hit into a player's zone that are turned into outs. Dozier's was .796 (n 207), Florimon's was .757 (n 111), Carroll's was .810 (n 105) last year (at SS).

Dozier, Florimon, and Carroll made 39, 29 and 18 plays out of their zone, respectively (at SS). For comparison, JJ Hardy made a mlb-high 109 OOZ plays last year compared to 409 balls hit into his zone. That was a career high for him. But Florimon's OOZ plays as a percentage of balls hit into his zone was virtually the same as Hardy's - .261 to .260, although Hardy has been much better at converting balls in zone into outs.

Small sample sizes for Dozier and Flormon, maybe meaningless. If not meaningless, then Flormin would seem to be slightly rangier. Possibly a Starlin Castro type defender.

If only he could hit like Castro.

#8 DAM DC Twins Fans

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Posted 23 October 2012 - 12:26 PM

key words in above comment--small sample sizes....

lets give Dozier and Florimon the opportunity to play middle IF at spring training. If one stands out (or maybe both) go with them next season with Carroll as a backup. I admit to being a big Dozier fan--I think he can be a decent MLB SS...maybe Florimon too...but give them a shot...look at how many shots Alexei has had.

#9 ThePuck

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Posted 23 October 2012 - 12:29 PM

'Florimon's OOZ plays as a percentage of balls hit into his zone was virtually the same as Hardy's - .261 to .260'

Plays outside of zone (OOZ) aren't including in the RZR at all...it's to be looked at separately as part of the overall defensive measure. Florimon had 111 balls hit into his zone. He made 84 plays, but those plays were made on ball in zone (BIZ). That gives you the .757 RZR.

His 29 plays OOZ aren't included in the 84 plays. It's a separate issue. OOZ is purposely excluded. So that 29 plays made OOZ isn't part of the 84 plays and therefore isn't a percentage of overall plays he made in his zone.

#10 Boom Boom

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Posted 23 October 2012 - 12:34 PM

I don't think either Dozier or Florimon has played enough for us to be able to look at their defensive metrics and be convinced that they are or aren't good defenders.

I think that putting Dozier at 2B would give him a somewhat better chance at being successful, at least defensively. But he still has to hit.

#11 ThePuck

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Posted 23 October 2012 - 12:47 PM

key words in above comment--small sample sizes....

lets give Dozier and Florimon the opportunity to play middle IF at spring training. If one stands out (or maybe both) go with them next season with Carroll as a backup. I admit to being a big Dozier fan--I think he can be a decent MLB SS...maybe Florimon too...but give them a shot...look at how many shots Alexei has had.


It would be nice if, for once, we actually had a spring training battle where the winner was labeled the starter...

#12 Willihammer

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Posted 23 October 2012 - 12:47 PM

Plays outside of zone (OOZ) aren't including in the RZR at all...it's to be looked at separately as part of the overall defensive measure. Florimon had 111 balls hit into his zone. He made 84 plays, but those plays were made on ball in zone (BIZ). That gives you the .757 RZR.


Yes but the absolute value OOZ doesn't provide much context. I debated using Innings instead of BIZ but figured that would be less meaningfull to most people.

Unfortunately there's no stat OOZ opportunities.

#13 Winston Smith

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Posted 23 October 2012 - 01:44 PM

If the Rangers lose Hamilton and need a CF would a Span for Andrus trade work?

May all our prospects be All Stars and the beer be free.


#14 ThePuck

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Posted 23 October 2012 - 01:46 PM

I keep hearing Andrus' name brought up. Is he on the trading block and I've missed it?

#15 70charger

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Posted 23 October 2012 - 03:26 PM

I keep hearing Andrus' name brought up. Is he on the trading block and I've missed it?


He's got Jurickson Profar breathing down his neck.

#16 ThePuck

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Posted 23 October 2012 - 03:33 PM

and that's good, they have depth, but is there any word, they're going to move Andrus out. Profar will be 20 next season?

I mean, heck, I'd like to get him...just not sure Texas would trade him...at least not yet.

#17 johnnydakota

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Posted 23 October 2012 - 03:36 PM

profar and olt , the 2 who are being eyed as trade bait

#18 Jack Torse

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Posted 23 October 2012 - 03:41 PM

Most rookies, especially shortstops, struggle badly when forced to play in the majors. Both offensively and defensively. It wasn't all bad either in 2012. It's not like the Twins are going to compete next season so I have no problems with playing Dozier and I think they should. I'm shocked by reading his 2011 minor league totals. Actually those numbers are absolutely outstanding and I'm suprised he wasn't a bigger prospect based on them alone. That's better than anything Hicks or as good as anything Arcia has done and people in these parts are almost universally high on them. Very good article Seth.

Edited by Jack Torse, 23 October 2012 - 03:49 PM.
clarity


#19 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 23 October 2012 - 05:48 PM

I wouldn't give up on Dozier just yet. Not sure I'd plan on him either. I think I'd sign Kelly Johnson and Stephen Drew to 1 year prove it contracts and let Brian start in AAA.

#20 twinswon1991

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Posted 23 October 2012 - 06:47 PM

If the Rangers lose Hamilton and need a CF would a Span for Andrus trade work?


If you throw in Sano and Rosario with Span you might be able to get Andrus. Otherwise, the best you will get for Span is a single A pitcher with upside. Too many good CF on the market and Span isn't an upgrade for most teams over their incumbant.

#21 righty8383

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Posted 23 October 2012 - 06:57 PM

If you throw in Sano and Rosario with Span you might be able to get Andrus. Otherwise, the best you will get for Span is a single A pitcher with upside. Too many good CF on the market and Span isn't an upgrade for most teams over their incumbant.


Did you really just suggest it would take Sano Rosario and Span to get Andrus?:confused:

#22 Willihammer

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Posted 23 October 2012 - 07:24 PM

I assume the Rangers will bring back Murphy to play CF. He is fine. What they seem to want is more starting pitching.

They are a little backlogged at 1B and 3B with Beltre, Young, Moreland, and Olt. They will likely not make a qualifying offer to Napoli.

I really think Napoli would be a perfect fit for the Twins.

#23 jorgenswest

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Posted 23 October 2012 - 08:53 PM

I don't believe Florimon's reputation in the minors was that of an elite defender.

He went unclaimed when the Twins DFA'd him last spring. Someone would have claimed an elite defender.

#24 twinscowboysbulls

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Posted 23 October 2012 - 08:59 PM

I think a lot of people are forgetting how important this lasik surgery is. Dozier will probably automatically turn into a .330/.420 type hitter, I mean look at the drastic impact it had on Span when he got it!!!!

#25 ThePuck

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Posted 23 October 2012 - 09:54 PM

I don't believe Florimon's reputation in the minors was that of an elite defender.

He went unclaimed when the Twins DFA'd him last spring. Someone would have claimed an elite defender.


Twins brass sure touted him as such...did so in the stories on the Twins site...and so did the announcers...not sure what they were seeing...was it his lack of range or his huge amount of errors that made them scream, WOW...he's a top flight defender

#26 Willihammer

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Posted 24 October 2012 - 11:30 AM

The way I read RZR, is the efficiency a defender converts into outs those balls he should convert into outs, as define by baseballinfosolutions' "zone."

It is given that over a large enough sample, all defenders field virtually the same number and type of batted balls to their zone. Likewise, we can also assume defenders will have the same opportunities to field balls outside their zone.

So, given these assumptions, I calculated out of zone plays made per inning. These are your 2012 leaders at SS (min 300 innings).

Posted Image


I comped to Castro not because Castro's an elite defender (he's average), but he has good range as defined by this measure, yet is below average at fielding in-range balls.

It is mostly semantics, outs are outs. I am only quibbling about the argument that Florimon has limited range, because based on what little data we have, I think the opposite is true.

#27 ThePuck

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Posted 24 October 2012 - 11:38 AM

'It is given that over a large enough sample, all defenders field virtually the same number and type of batted balls to their zone.'

I don't think it's a given at all, and if you look at innings played, BIZ and Plays on Fangraphs, it shows that isn't true. In any event, the amount of Balls in Zone (BIZ) is used to calculate their RZR, along with the amount plays made in the zone. The zone for shortstop is set for everyone and the amount of balls that go into that zone is used in the calculation along with the amount of the balls in the zone the player converted to outs.

' Likewise, we can also assume defenders will have the same opportunities to field balls outside their zone.''

I don't see how this could be assumed either.

In any event, RZR measures the range. OOZ measure the amount of balls fielded outside of the position's set range. ZR used to have RZR and OOZ combined, but they felt it wasn't giving us accurate info, so it divided the two. You need to take a look at both to get a good view on the overall skill of the defender, but range is RZR.

Your 'given' and assumption seems to suggest you wanna discount RZR all together as all the numbers needed to calculate it will equal out if you project out far enough. Seems you just want to use OOZ as the measure of range, which is cool if that's what you wanna do...but that's not the stat for normal range of the player.

And if you wanna just go by what you see, I didn't see exceptional range by any means. He came in on balls well, but his side to side was nothing special

Edited by ThePuck, 24 October 2012 - 12:08 PM.


#28 Willihammer

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Posted 24 October 2012 - 12:06 PM

'It is given that over a large enough sample, all defenders field virtually the same number and type of batted balls to their zone. Likewise, we can also assume defenders will have the same opportunities to field balls outside their zone.'

I don't think we can say the above is true, or everyone would have the same amount of Balls in Zone (BIZ) used to calculate their RZR.


That is a bedrock assumption, and even in a small sample like this, BIZ correlates well with innings.

[attachment=274:1544.attach]

I assume that balls out of zone correlates similarly. But no, I don't have that data.

Edit: you can also look at the names at the top of that leaderboard, they are the usual suspects.

#29 ThePuck

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Posted 24 October 2012 - 12:16 PM

'It is given that over a large enough sample, all defenders field virtually the same number and type of batted balls to their zone. Likewise, we can also assume defenders will have the same opportunities to field balls outside their zone.'

I don't think we can say the above is true, or everyone would have the same amount of Balls in Zone (BIZ) used to calculate their RZR.


That is a bedrock assumption, and even in a small sample like this, BIZ correlates well with innings.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]2557[/ATTACH]

I assume that balls out of zone correlates similarly. But no, I don't have that data.

Edit: you can also look at the names at the top of that leaderboard, they are the usual suspects.


Ramirez played 142 MORE innings than Escobar, but they had the same amount of Balls in Zone. Exactly the same amount. Barmes had one less ball in zone than Ramirez and Escobar, in almost 100 LESS innings than Escobar. So you have 3 defenders there, and Barmes had 1 less ball in zone than Ramirez even though he played in 233 less innings.

Additionally, Reyes had one more Ball in Zone than Ramirez and Escobar, but he played in 18 more innings than Ramirez, 160 more than Escobar and 251 more than Barmes. Yet, Reyes had less plays made than Ramirez, Escobar AND Barmes.

But you say 'all defenders field virtually the same number and type of batted balls to their zone' That's not what the info above says. If it was true, everyone would have the same RZR...since that's an average.

Edited for typos...I'm a horrible typist

Edited by ThePuck, 24 October 2012 - 12:39 PM.


#30 Willihammer

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Posted 24 October 2012 - 12:35 PM

Over a large enough sample, that is the predicate.

I admit, 300 innings is a small sample. But if you're going to dismiss those 300 then you can neither conclude that Florimon has limited range.

The principle is sound though.