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Front Page: Randy Dobnak Should Be the Twins Game 2 Starter

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#21 Danchat

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Posted 22 September 2019 - 03:11 PM

 

Can Graterol or Thorpe start or are they not stretched out enough at this point?

Thorpe recently went 5 innings, he seems to be stretched out enough to go 5-6 tops.

 

Graterol hasn't thrown that many innings since his shoulder injury, he can probably go 2 innings tops.

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#22 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 22 September 2019 - 03:24 PM

Yeah, Dobnak or Thorpe I think. I don't trust Gibson or Perez. Looks like we will be praying for rain quite a bit during the playoffs.


#23 rdehring

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Posted 22 September 2019 - 03:27 PM

What a fantastic suggestion, Andrew.Hopefully, Rocco and his staff have the guts to do something like this.I feel for Gibby, but unless he gets one more shot this week after we clinch and does very well, I don't see how he can even be on the playoff roster.Expect there will also be a lot of thought into whether or not Perez is on the roster.Expect he will be, but might not be on mine.

 

My 12 man pitching staff would be Berrios, Odorizzi, Rogers, Romo, Duffey, May, Littell, Stashak, Schmeltzer, Thorpe, Dobnak and Graterol.If Perez is on it, expect Graterol will not be.  

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#24 tarheeltwinsfan

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Posted 22 September 2019 - 05:53 PM

Nice article Andrew. Makes sense to me.


#25 Patrick Wozniak

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Posted 22 September 2019 - 06:52 PM

Great article! While the Twins have no flashy options, I think Dobnak's ability to limit fly balls and induce ground balls gives the Twins the best chance to win. Plus, he seems like the kind of guy who can handle big moments. Kyle Gibson had a really good interview with him on the Twins Podcast that's worth checking out. 


#26 Cooper Carlson

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Posted 22 September 2019 - 07:50 PM

The only part I disagree with is the idea that Dobnak will not strike fear into the Yankees or Astros hearts. Everyone shoudl fear Dobnak

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#27 jtkoupal

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Posted 22 September 2019 - 08:27 PM

Maybe Dobnak gets one time through the order, then someone else gets the next time through the order, then mix and match from there based on situation of the game?


#28 Aerodeliria

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Posted 22 September 2019 - 09:49 PM

Why Dobnak and Smeltzer should be in every conversation when it comes to playing the Yankees is that they throw strikes. The Yankees have feasted off the Twins pitchers' falling behind in the count. It happened when we held a five-run lead against the Yankees this year (and lost) and more importantly, it happened in that demoralizing one-game playoff with the Yankees a couple of years back, where Santana, despite being given a 3-0 first inning lead, started every count at 3-0 or 2-0.

 

The Yankees become quite human when they have to swing the bat.

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#29 laloesch

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Posted 23 September 2019 - 07:34 AM

 

Why Dobnak and Smeltzer should be in every conversation when it comes to playing the Yankees is that they throw strikes. The Yankees have feasted off the Twins pitchers' falling behind in the count. It happened when we held a five-run lead against the Yankees this year (and lost) and more importantly, it happened in that demoralizing one-game playoff with the Yankees a couple of years back, where Santana, despite being given a 3-0 first inning lead, started every count at 3-0 or 2-0.

 

The Yankees become quite human when they have to swing the bat.

 

EXACTLY.I don't see how the Twins start Perez or Gibson in a playoff series at this point. Neither pitcher can get anyone out.


#30 spycake

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Posted 23 September 2019 - 07:46 AM

 

Dobnak should start Game 1, not Game 2. If you're going to stretch the pen in a Dobnak game, you want Berrios after as he's most likely to give you 7 or 8. That's a break before Odo/Perez, who strain pens in general. And Berrios would still line up to pitch Game 5 on normal rest.

I think you'd still rather pitcher Berrios in game 1 -- he can be good, but he's not quite a "lock" to go 7+ innings like, say, Verlander. (Very few people are!) And Dobnak's hook would likely be dependent, at least in part, on how well Berrios does -- do you treat Dobnak as a traditional starter trying to work deep, or do you look at it as a quasi-bullpen game and pull Dobnak in the right situation/matchup? To best inform that decision, you want to already know how deep Berrios pitched in his game.

 

The trickle-down effect on games 3-4 should be minimal either way, as they are buffered by off days.

 

And in extreme circumstances, like a rain delay or early exit in game 1, you might want the option to bring Berrios back for a game 4 start. Unlikely, but sort of like like what the Twins did with Johan in 2003, or even in 2004, although hopefully with better results. :)

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#31 spycake

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Posted 23 September 2019 - 08:01 AM

 

Dobnak is truly an amazing story. Few players from his draft class of 2017 have arrived in the majors. Keston Hiura is the only one that stands out in my mind as making a better first major league impression than Dobnak. Dobnak wasn’t even drafted. I am not sure if anyone in his college has ever played in the minors. If he adds playoff success somebody needs to write a book and make a movie.

It is a cool story so far, although comparing him to the 2017 draft class isn't quite perfect -- a guy like Mackenzie Gore could very well be pitching well in MLB now if his team was better and/or his future value wasn't so high. Nate Pearson? Maybe Jo Adell too? Not many, but by comparison, Dobnak has the "benefit" of his team doing well right now and not really caring about his future ceiling/control.

 

Still, that's a relatively minor factor. Very, very cool what Dobnak has been able to accomplish so far. 

Edited by spycake, 23 September 2019 - 08:01 AM.

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#32 woolywoolhouse

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Posted 23 September 2019 - 08:11 AM

My one suggestion to Dobnak: change the glasses to black; add white tape to the center; ask the NY (or Houston) media to call you "Randy Hanson." And then throw the first pitch of the game behind the back of the leadoff hitter. 

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#33 davidc3915

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Posted 23 September 2019 - 08:21 AM

While Romo has been very good in a traditional bullpen role for the Twins, I can't help but remember he was Tampa's original "Opener."And who has more playoff experience than he?

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#34 Dantes929

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Posted 23 September 2019 - 08:35 AM

 

  

 

The only thing we know is that Perez isn't getting it done and it's the eve of the playoffs and we know that Dobnak and Smeltzer have been better but we don't have enough information to feel secure about them. 

  

 

 

 

So here we are... We have Odorizzi and Berrios. Will the Twins just throw Perez out of habit or in support of the data. Or are they going to bullpen this thing outside of Berrios and Odorizze due to lack of other options? 

 

I think they are going to bullpen... I believe that they have left themselves no choice. It's quite possible that they would have ended up with no other choice in the end but it shouldn't be a surprise to anyone that someone in the rotation got hurt (Gibson) suspended (Pineda) and is pitching below MLB Quality (Perez). This stuff happens all the time.

 

I'm ok with bullpen games, I'm not afraid of bull-penning games in the playoffs. I watched the Brewers do it successfully last year.

  

The two pitchers I would feel most secure with are Verlander and Kershaw. Combined they are 1-6 in World Series games with a 5.5 ERA.Nick Blackburn gave up 1 run in game 163 and 1 run in the playoffs against the Yankees.Of course it is all SSS and you want the best pitcher out there.I'm sure we all thought Viola, Morris and Tapani would throw well but they were all often one pitch away from disaster. Comes down to who do you think has the best chance to throw a quality game and given that Gibson hasn't done it once since August 3rd and Perez's success rate has been well under 50% and Dobnak has been great his last two starts, at this point anyway it is a no brainer. We really probably shouldn't even call it a bullpen game.Dobnak has gone 5 innings or more both times.He should simply be our starter.The tone of your post later was that the Twins were somewhat negligent in not preparing better for this.That everyone has injuries and no one should be surprised by it. That;s true but can you really prepare for it?If Viola goes down in 1987 who steps up? If Morris and Tapani go down in 91 what was plan B? In some cases for various reasonsplan B can be as good or better than plan A but that is not the norm. I can easily imagine Berrios, Odorizzi and Dobnak throwing well enough to give us a chance.Unless they blow up in their next starts I feel about as secure in that as I can be.  

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#35 spycake

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Posted 23 September 2019 - 08:37 AM

Worth remembering that Dobnak only has two "real starts" in MLB so far. His first 6 games were all long relief / mop-up / opener appearances.

 

It's encouraging that he did well overall in his "real start" vs. Cleveland, after they had seen them twice already, although 8 baserunners in 5 innings to an average-ish offense is a little risky. 5 of the first 8 batters reached in that game, before Dobnak was bailed out by a DP ball off the bat of Ryan Flaherty. Dobnak is supposed to be a bit of groundball artist, but will he face a Ryan Flaherty in the postseason to allow him to escape a rocky start? His other start vs CLE (as an opener), the first 4 batters of the 2nd inning reached base, and Dobnak was able to escape thanks to a baserunning error, then retiring the 8 and 9 hitters -- a backup catcher and Yu Chang, two more types of batters he may not see in the postseason.

 

The start vs KC had more strikeouts, but also 7 baserunners in 5.1 innings, versus the second-worst offense in the AL. 4 walks/HBP, 2 of the leadoff variety to their 8 and 9 hitters. HOU/NYY may not be as forgiving.

 

I mean, it's still amazing that he's doing this in MLB right now, given his backstory -- but I think I would have liked to see him tested by better offenses before building much of a postseason strategy around him. (Next and last start, probably against Detroit, unfortunately.) Not that Smeltzer's long relief stint vs the Yankees makes him a better option, though.

 

I guess opener of a bullpen game, with a short leash, may not be too bad.

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#36 spycake

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Posted 23 September 2019 - 08:46 AM

 

The two pitchers I would feel most secure with are Verlander and Kershaw. Combined they are 1-6 in World Series games with a 5.5 ERA.

Of course, you need to get to the World Series in order to accumulate World Series stats. And Verlander is 7-0 with a 2.38 ERA in the ALDS, and 6-3 with a 2.95 ERA in the ALCS. Kershaw's been iffier, but his teams are 8-3 in his 11 NLDS starts too. I wouldn't say their World Series stats in isolation have much meaning in this conversation, as the Twins try to set their ALDS rotation.

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#37 by jiminy

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Posted 23 September 2019 - 09:47 AM

Wow, that was a very compelling argument! Well done. The combination of spacing out the bullpen games, and starting a right-handed, ground-ball pitcher in Yankee stadium, does indeed seem like a sensible approach. I can't think of a better option.


#38 by jiminy

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Posted 23 September 2019 - 09:54 AM

The only way Perez would have a prayer against the Yankees would be if he surprised them with a completely different pitch selection than in his past few months. That would be a creative strategy: throw him out there for three bad months with a terrible mix of pitches and pitch locations, then switch it up in the playoffs. 

 

Maybe those first 7 effective starts were an experiment that worked so well that when they got a big lead, they put the strategy under wraps to save till October. 

 

Hmm. If the options are believing that or starting Dobnak, I'm taking Dobnak.

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#39 Mike Sixel

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Posted 23 September 2019 - 10:14 AM

Mike Sixel
12:10 Would you put either Gibson or Perez on the Twins post season roster?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:13 I think a lot of it depends upon matchups. I'd consider Perez, who even during his second-half slide has still been effective against lefties. I wouldn't expect him to go five innings but there may be a relief role or a short-starter (opener, even) situation that makes sense. As for Gibson, it sounds like his illness has cost him so much strength and rendered him ineffective.

https://www.jotcast....23-19-6087.html

Edited by Mike Sixel, 23 September 2019 - 10:15 AM.

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#40 jimbo92107

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Posted 23 September 2019 - 10:18 AM

Andrew's original premise focused on the plus side of using Dobnak to start ALDS game 2. To that I must add that "all hands on deck" is understating the situation. For the Twins, all hands are not available anymore. Gibson should not touch a baseball until his weight is back over 150 pounds, and one sandwich ain't gonna do it. Pitching Perez is like playing Russian roulette, only the revolver has not just one bullet in it, but three. Low-leverage relief or mop up duty for Perez. 

 

That leaves a fairly talented group of rookies, unless you want to see how many innings Duffey can pitch. Actually, he and Littell could probably start a game and go four or five innings of reasonable ball....

 

Point is, there isn't much choice now. Twins will need to patch together a bullpen game, then hope the bats come alive for about ten runs. Yes, the kids aren't quite ready. Yes, they'll be facing Houston or the Yankees. Yes, they could choke under all that pressure. That's your 2019 Twins, folks. Next season these guys will be a lot more stable emotionally, and have better technique. Next season we might see Graterol starting, and maybe another couple guys from this group. Next season we might get Pineda back. But right now, Baldi and the boys have to choreograph some serious sleight of hand with newborn magicians. 

 

It should surprise nobody that this probably won't work. Certainly not against hot-hitting Houston posting Justin Verlander, Garrett Cole and Zack Greinke. The Lords of Probability are tittering in our general direction. Still, somebody has to go out there. Yo Dobnak, you available? As a final request, we grant thee absolution from any environmental disasters resulting from your brave attempt. Go out there and have fun, kid!

Edited by jimbo92107, 23 September 2019 - 10:22 AM.

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