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Front Page: Twins Game Recap (9/18): Twins’ Offense Absent Against Chicago Bullpen Game

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#41 Only Here in Negative

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Posted 19 September 2019 - 09:38 AM

 

 

Seems to be little love for Astudillo on these boards. We can't just look at him as a '3rd catcher'...he is a valuable replacement almost anywhere...unlike Castro, who is only a catcher and right now someone who can't hit a lick. With Garver probably getting the call every game in a 5 game series, who is more valuable as an 'extra'? Someone who can still catch, AND play other positions AND who rarely strikes out...or someone who is uni-dimensional and who has become an automatic out (with a ton of k's). While Castro defensively is decent, is he REALLY that superior to Astudillo behind the plate, as to make a huge difference?

Astudillo is more than a fun story....he is a valuable utility player and IMO much more useful in a short series than the slumping Castro. I also think he is more valuable than Cave, who has also reverted back to not hitting.

Just my opinions of course.

 

Astudillo is having a terrible year. 170 ABs and a 72 OPS+. Even with last year's hotness he's at a career 95 OPS+. Both of those are okay for a backup catcher but that's not a guy to write home about. The eye test confirms it. Pitchers have figured out he'll chase and so they're throwing him stuff off the plate so he'll make weak contact. He has yet to respond to the league's book on him.

 

Defensively, he looks erratic behind the plate. The throws behind runners are exciting but there's a lot of danger there too. Castro seems a bit better but not significantly so. I'd be fine letting Castro go this offseason and making Astudillo the backup but for now, Castro is a better player, especially since I expect Garver to start most if not all playoff games.

 

Astudillo does have some positional flexibility but he's not particularly good anywhere. Playoffs before the WS are not as much about playing bench players and the Twins don't have a lot of guys you'd pinch hit for in the lineup (maybe Schoop/Arraez based on handedness?) So that's not so useful, especially since Gonzalez can play just about anywhere.

 

Cave is a better option because he's actually an OF. The Twins will need four of those in case of injury. Arraez/Astudillo are not good options for a playoff game. In fact, you may see Wade instead of a 13th pitcher if they want 5 OF and a pinch runner for Sano/Cruz.

 

Astudillo has a future with the Twins as a bridge to Rortvedt/Jeffers but he has no business on a playoff roster. He can still be on the bench and be a teammate.

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#42 Only Here in Negative

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Posted 19 September 2019 - 09:42 AM

 

Rosario got thrown out at third, with 2 out, in a one run game. 

 

It's inexcusable, and that's ignoring the fact he sat at home plate admiring his "shot."  

 

Bad play is bad play, and it's ok to point it out.

 

That's the kind of axiomatic thinking that baseball is moving away from. I see it as more of a guideline than a hard-and-fast rule. Getting to third has some value, especially with a catcher who already had a PB and a young inexperienced White Sox bullpen that threw a lot of innings yesterday. The play was close, there was some luck involved, and if we take Rosario at his word, he understandably missed the CF coming way over into RF to back up that play. I'm not saying it was a good play but I don't think it's some boneheaded play that he should get chewed out for (as several posters have indicated).

 

Go watch the replay. That's not admiring. He didn't bolt out of the box but he finished his backswing and got moving to first. I'd like to see that pause gone too but that's modern baseball. Many/most players do it. He was motoring to get to 3rd on that in the first place.


#43 JLease

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Posted 19 September 2019 - 09:44 AM

 

Yes, it is a loss and keeps the magic number at 7. The Twins struck out only 5 times in the game and drew 5 walks. Chicago struck out 14 times and drew one walk. From those stats, who do you think wins the game? Chicago's BABIP was 9-20, while the Twins were 3-24. One of those games. 

 

This. every fly ball the twins hit were well in an OF's range. the line drives seemed to go right to someone. Sometimes you don't find the holes.

 

Odorizzi looked good, his control was where it needed to be and he was working effectively up in the zone and finishing guys off. Sure, the ChiSox ain't the '27 Yankees, but they're also not Det or Mia


#44 Only Here in Negative

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Posted 19 September 2019 - 09:45 AM

 

I respectfully disagree. You ALWAYS make sure to clinch before sitting anyone. Disasters are the name of the game in baseball. Almost every year, something really crazy happens. 2006, for example! It looked for all the world that nothing could stop the Twins that year. Out of absolutely nowhere, the A's swept us in the divisional series. Then, if we thought it couldn't get any crazier, the Tigers, who we had just defeated for the division title, sweep the A's. The Royals could easily do big time damage against the Twins these last 7 games against us. It is a real possibility. I sincerely hope that Baldelli is not going to rest any players. We need them more than ever right now. 

 

I agree not to sit players who are uninjured any more than you would normally (and perhaps less since clinching early means you can rest more). But Kepler was banged up, Gonzo is fresh off injury, Polanco has been battling several injuries, and Cruz has wrist issues that won't get better without surgery. Those guys will be key to any playoff game so I think you can game theory this and get some guys some days off.

 

I do hope Game 3 of Cleveland was an aberration and we won't see everyone sitting. That was the day after a tense doubleheader so I'd like to think it was. But sitting Kep a few games to get healthy and cycling Rosario, Cruz, Polanco, and Cron in and off the bench seems wise.

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#45 Only Here in Negative

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Posted 19 September 2019 - 09:48 AM

 

The slumping Castro has an OPS over 100 pts higher than Astudillo.

 

He isn't even a fun story anymore.

 

If Castro was amendable to a one year deal for say $8 million, would you take him over Astudillo next year? Or go find a veteran catcher for somewhere between Astudillo and Castro's cost? I lean Astudillo but that leaves you thin if Garver gets hurt.

 

I'm excited about Rortvedt and Jeffers and think they're potentially up late next year or 2021. So its a short term play but one of the few interesting Twins offseason things with position players.


#46 howeda7

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Posted 19 September 2019 - 10:07 AM

 

If Castro was amendable to a one year deal for say $8 million, would you take him over Astudillo next year? Or go find a veteran catcher for somewhere between Astudillo and Castro's cost? I lean Astudillo but that leaves you thin if Garver gets hurt.

 

I'm excited about Rortvedt and Jeffers and think they're potentially up late next year or 2021. So its a short term play but one of the few interesting Twins offseason things with position players.

No way. $8 million is what we paid him on his current contract to be the starter. The gap between him and Astudillo isn't big. And Astudillo will work for minimum salary. That $8 million is best used elsewhere. Stash a "Magic Fingers" Bobby Wilson type in AAA to be safe. (But not actual Bobby Wilson please.)

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#47 twinsnorth49

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Posted 19 September 2019 - 10:56 AM

In today's game, 100 mph doesn't make anyone unhittable. There are far too many guys that hit 98+ on a regular basis. I'm still not sure that Gratoral should be on the prospective postseason roster.

Neither am I, velocity is still king but only if you can combine it with movement, location and effective change of speeds. All of those obviously make the best MLB pitchers but having at least two of them when you throw 100 will make you awfully effective.

Not sure Graterol can combine any of them consistently enough yet, he’s close though.
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#48 USAFChief

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Posted 19 September 2019 - 10:56 AM

 

That's the kind of axiomatic thinking that baseball is moving away from. I see it as more of a guideline than a hard-and-fast rule. Getting to third has some value, especially with a catcher who already had a PB and a young inexperienced White Sox bullpen that threw a lot of innings yesterday. The play was close, there was some luck involved, and if we take Rosario at his word, he understandably missed the CF coming way over into RF to back up that play. I'm not saying it was a good play but I don't think it's some boneheaded play that he should get chewed out for (as several posters have indicated).

 

Go watch the replay. That's not admiring. He didn't bolt out of the box but he finished his backswing and got moving to first. I'd like to see that pause gone too but that's modern baseball. Many/most players do it. He was motoring to get to 3rd on that in the first place.

Not admiring?

 

 

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#49 wsnydes

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Posted 19 September 2019 - 11:07 AM

 

Beat me to the link!

 

On the White Sox broadcast, Steve Stone raked him over the coals for it too, and he's right. That lack of hustle coming out of the box is what produced an out instead of a triple.

 

And the line about not seeing the CF coming over is BS. The play is behind him, so he should be picking up his 3B coach to tell him what's going on.

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#50 SpicyGarvSauce

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Posted 19 September 2019 - 11:09 AM

That was a frustrating game/series IMO - offense was stagnant, which was a bit frustrating. As well as what seemed to be every White Sox leadoff hitter getting on base in every darn inning. Also - if not for the White Sox ineptitude in that 2nd game, the Twins lose 2 of 3 instead of winning 2 of 3.


#51 SQUIRREL

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Posted 19 September 2019 - 12:04 PM

 

Beat me to the link!

 

On the White Sox broadcast, Steve Stone raked him over the coals for it too, and he's right. That lack of hustle coming out of the box is what produced an out instead of a triple.

 

And the line about not seeing the CF coming over is BS. The play is behind him, so he should be picking up his 3B coach to tell him what's going on.

Right. For me it wasn't him trying for 3rd ... he could have made it if he hustled out of the box. He also might have made it had it not been a perfect play on the ball and throw to third.

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#52 kenbuddha

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Posted 19 September 2019 - 12:14 PM

 

Beat me to the link!

 

On the White Sox broadcast, Steve Stone raked him over the coals for it too, and he's right. That lack of hustle coming out of the box is what produced an out instead of a triple.

 

And the line about not seeing the CF coming over is BS. The play is behind him, so he should be picking up his 3B coach to tell him what's going on.

Right on all counts. He pauses to watch it before even getting out of the box, then 3/4 speeds it around 1st, and he only starts going full speed about 1/2 way to 2nd. And Stone is right, he has been doing it the whole series.

Rosario has to tighten his game up.

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#53 wsnydes

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Posted 19 September 2019 - 12:17 PM

 

Right. For me it wasn't him trying for 3rd ... he could have made it if he hustled out of the box. He also might have made it had it not been a perfect play on the ball and throw to third.

Yup, that was my issue too. I definitely abide by the "never make the last out at 3B" policy (especially in a close game like that), but there were two factors there that kind of override that in this case. One is preventable and the other requires a tip of the cap.

 

I definitely appreciate how well the outfield played and executed that play. Defense played correctly is fun to watch in my opinion. Little things like that are what the Twins need to be better at to beat the Astros and Yankees.

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#54 h2oface

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Posted 19 September 2019 - 12:55 PM

 

1.) Even if the Clevelanders go 10-0 the rest of the way, the Twins win going 7-3 against the Royals and Tigers. If Cleveland goes 8-2 (still hard given the Nationals will care and the Phillies are a decent team), the Twins need to go 5-5. Its not arrogant, its smart to sit guys who are banged up.

 

2.) The pitching has been bad? No way, they've been pretty solid. Odo and Berrios looked really good. The pen looks to be solid too. They dominated in Cleveland and the guys who have been hit this series have been regression to the mean (May) or not likely to be on the playoff team but pitching because its the 12th (Harper). Perez hasn't even been that bad. Will we be confident in the playoffs with him? No. Is he capable of shutting down a team on a given day? Yeah. Buy some antacids Twins fans.

 

3.) That's harsh on Rosario. After the game, Rosie said he didn't see the CF coming over. That's a split second decision made by a runner coming around second on a play that he can't fully see because he already turned second. Not all CFers come over to right at such a shallow angle on that, its more typical that they would be back at the fence too. The ball came off the wall right back to a guy running the opposite way as the throw. And it still took a perfect throw. Its not ideal to get the third out at third but I think in this situation, it's not that bad of a call. Rosario is an aggressive player and that has helped and hurt the Twins. This one isn't particularly boneheaded - equal parts unlucky and overly aggressive. I don't mind the latter in a game where the Twins needed a bit of a spark after being shut down the first five innings.

 

OK 

I'll play.

 

1. Rest does nothing for you if you don't win the playoff spot. Absolutely nothing. Crazy things happen in the last couple of weeks of the season. Who did Detroit get swept by in 4 games in 2006 that gave the Twins the Central? 62-100 KC. That's who. They still got in as the Wild Card (They still got in and beat the Yankees and Oakland, who trounced the Twins, though) . With Cleveland, Oakland, and Tampa Bay lurking just a couple of games back, the loser of the Central just might not get that chance at redemption. And that is just one of several horror stories that I could pipe in with.

 

2. Our pitchers have been giving up hits like they are going out of style. I am not going to go back and total it up.... tons of baserunners and hits. As far back as the last Detroit series. Regardless of the other points.... giving up hits (against poor hitting teams too) is not a good formula to advancing in the playoffs. That is what I am noticing.

 

3. I repeat. No excuse. No excuses. You can't make the 3rd out at 3rd, ever. Never ever. You can't let yourself make that decision as you round second. Especially late in the game. Especially after you languished in the box looking at your hit. I see you left that part out. Second was just fine here. Sure, getting 3rd, you can score on a wild pitch and you can't do that from 2nd. And I'm not saying you can't take 3rd if it is clearly there to be had and take the triple. But you need to hustle immediately out of the box as a habit. Always. That needs to be ingrained in your behavior and your brain. No matter what. Isn't part of being an agressive player getting your butt out of the box and at full speed down the first baseline? I think it is. That is what agressive players do. No excuse. No excuses.

Edited by h2oface, 19 September 2019 - 05:02 PM.

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#55 insagt1

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Posted 19 September 2019 - 01:13 PM

I agree with the last post totally. I hate making exuses for losses. This is now a 10 game season. We can play with numbers all we want. If the Twins do this or do that..heck they could go 1-9 in this crazy game of baseball. Odds say that won't happen but the name of the game is still win.We haven't been sharp lately. We've won some games but we trail in most all of them.

Resting players as long as the ones who take their place can get the job done is OK. If a guy is truly banged up and not contributing...like Cron or even Kepler...there is no advantage to having them play. Cron apparently can't grip the bat and his AB's are either k's or weak grounders. Kepler's power has vanished due to his injury and he can't swing the bat properly.

 

I also wonder if playing Castro is helping. He has stopped hitting all together. I think a pitcher could accomplish more. Give Astudillo the odd game behind the plate and see if he can accomplish more. Cave is back in the tank too...but Wade and LaMarre probably aren't the answer. Miller can't hit. Twins really do have to rely on the guys who can get it done...like Rosario, Cruz, Polanco and Arraez. Sano will hit a mistake ten miles...but he also is very suseptible to fanning on 3 pitches.

 

Every team has injuries...look at the Yankees. Gotta gut it out and play smart and hard.,...and not make excuses about losing.

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#56 Riverbrian

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Posted 19 September 2019 - 01:20 PM

 

They should work on him in the offseason though. If he doesn't hit .350 going forward, he may get pushed out of the infield and into a utility role. His metrics at 2B are below average and pretty awful at SS and 3B. Being able to play a decent LF would help his career longevity. 

 

Of course he could make that a moot point by continuing to hit .350 or developing pop.

 

But agreed that he's not an OF and its because Buxton/Kepler are injured that he's even out there. Jake Cave is not a competent CFer either.

 

Yeah... I'd like to see a major league OF make that play but I believe Rosario has struggled with that same ball multiple times this year.

 

It seems to me that Rosario is perceived as an OF so when he doesn't make the play we don't get the out of position comments, while Arraez is perceived as a 2B and when he doesn't make that play... it is followed by out of position comments.These declarations are too simple in a complicated world.  

 

I fully agree with you that they should continue to work on OF and IF. He's 22 and he can grow any direction you let him.. the team just has to let him. Multi positions is a positive for the team and positive for young Luis Arraez.  

 

If he can play multiple positions we can entertain such thoughts as bringing Schoop or even Dozier back (I'm not saying we should) or letting Nick Gordon win a job (Not saying he will). I'm just saying that it increases our options. The opposite of that is giving him the 2B job with no altervative, living and dying with the results, baring the brunt of a sophomore slump if it happens with no place to turn. I love Arraez... I'm buying his stock but I love him even more with an insurance policy and he can become that insurance policy by playing multiple positions. :)I am sure Rocco has a preference to where he plays... it seems that preference is 2B. But, we should all see by simply watching how injuries and matchups have caused the need for Arraez to play elsewhere and it's working.Yeah, we got Marwin but we can all see that presence of Marwin isn't enough to eliminate the need for flexibility from Arraez or Astudillo. 

 

I'm still not ready to declare any of his current defensive metrics stable for any definition at his young age, due to not enough data to stabilize it. It's a small sample size in total made up of a bunch of smaller sample sizes by playing multiple positions. I don't think we should pay any attention to his UZR at the moment. 

 

Last night's play notwithstanding, he has been making plays in the field at all positions but I will fully admit that he isn't Buxton or Kepler in the OF or the greatest 2B on earth.:)

 

Like you said... let him continue on his current path. 

 

 

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#57 h2oface

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Posted 19 September 2019 - 01:37 PM

 

If Castro was amendable to a one year deal for say $8 million, would you take him over Astudillo next year? Or go find a veteran catcher for somewhere between Astudillo and Castro's cost? I lean Astudillo but that leaves you thin if Garver gets hurt.

 

I'm excited about Rortvedt and Jeffers and think they're potentially up late next year or 2021. So its a short term play but one of the few interesting Twins offseason things with position players.

 

It is a weird time in baseball. Pay Castro 8 mil and pay Garver under 1 mil? Just because you can. I hope the new agreement has a better compromise than screwing the young great players for so many years. Astudillo has never been my choice. The performance stats just don't back it up.

Edited by h2oface, 19 September 2019 - 01:52 PM.


#58 ScrapTheNickname

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Posted 19 September 2019 - 02:39 PM

 

It definitely should have, but he played little to no outfield in the minors and it's hard to blame the kid. I'm sure it's something they work with him on in the offseason, but I doubt we see him out there too often.

Yes, Arraez had a total of TWO OUTFIELD STARTS throughout his minor league career. I think he has acquitted himself very well, given that.

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#59 ScrapTheNickname

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Posted 19 September 2019 - 02:44 PM

 

1.) Even if the Clevelanders go 10-0 the rest of the way, the Twins win going 7-3 against the Royals and Tigers. If Cleveland goes 8-2 (still hard given the Nationals will care and the Phillies are a decent team), the Twins need to go 5-5. Its not arrogant, its smart to sit guys who are banged up.

 

2.) The pitching has been bad? No way, they've been pretty solid. Odo and Berrios looked really good. The pen looks to be solid too. They dominated in Cleveland and the guys who have been hit this series have been regression to the mean (May) or not likely to be on the playoff team but pitching because its the 12th (Harper). Perez hasn't even been that bad. Will we be confident in the playoffs with him? No. Is he capable of shutting down a team on a given day? Yeah. Buy some antacids Twins fans.

 

3.) That's harsh on Rosario. After the game, Rosie said he didn't see the CF coming over. That's a split second decision made by a runner coming around second on a play that he can't fully see because he already turned second. Not all CFers come over to right at such a shallow angle on that, its more typical that they would be back at the fence too. The ball came off the wall right back to a guy running the opposite way as the throw. And it still took a perfect throw. Its not ideal to get the third out at third but I think in this situation, it's not that bad of a call. Rosario is an aggressive player and that has helped and hurt the Twins. This one isn't particularly boneheaded - equal parts unlucky and overly aggressive. I don't mind the latter in a game where the Twins needed a bit of a spark after being shut down the first five innings.

That's even worse: that he didn't see the center fielder coming over. That's what a center fielder is supposed to do, especially with the overhang! The question is would Rosario have hustled to back up teammate like that?


#60 ScrapTheNickname

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Posted 19 September 2019 - 02:46 PM

 

You need to watch the replay. He didn't stand at home for 2-3 seconds admiring his shot. He certainly didn't sprint out of the box (and he should) but he was moving up the line almost immediately.

 

It is true that if he sprints, he ends up on 3rd. But I don't think you need to rip him for it. Rosario seems like the kind of guy where being caught at 3rd is enough to reinforce that lesson anyways. 

But this kind of thing happens habitually. I don't think he learns from his mistakes. Still with the one-handed fancy grabs in the outfield too.




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