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Front Page: Moneyball Redux: Will Red Sox Raid Twins' Front Office?

derek falvey thad levine
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#41 Kelly Vance

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Posted 14 September 2019 - 11:37 AM

There is wayyyyy to much unfair criticism on this site. The Lord would say "Child, count your blessings." 

#42 Linus


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Posted 14 September 2019 - 02:48 PM

There is wayyyyy to much unfair criticism on this site. The Lord would say "Child, count your blessings."

Yea but the Lord isn’t a Twins fan😀

#43 Tomj14


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Posted 16 September 2019 - 11:53 AM


This goes back to my point above--why wouldn't they get credit for those guys developing?It happened while they were 100% in charge of the baseball operations of this franchise.If you're going to not give them credit for Garver, Polanco, Kepler, or Arraez because you think that credit goes to the player, then in order to be intellectually honest, you can't blame them for Parker, Romero, or any of the others, since that would also go to the player.


Pineda's suspension is 0% on Falvine, since Pineda himself said he took the substance without consulting the Twins.Dyson had a 2.47 ERA and 2.72 FIP on the year when the Twins acquired him, when not even the Giants knew he was hurt--Falvine are now supposed to be clairvoyant, and know about injuries players have deliberately hidden when there is absolutely no sign of them?


Romo's ERA with the Twins is 3.5, compared to May's 3.04--hardly a huge disparity given the SSS of relievers.In fact, if Romo's next two outings are scoreless, his Twins ERA drops to 3.15; if May gives up one run in his next outing, his ERA rises to 3.14.In other words, its hardly far-fetched to say that after Sunday's game, Romo and May will have essentially identical ERA's.

I was trying to be fair to the front office giving them credit for the guys they brought in and for putting guys they inherited into potions to succeed.

They brought in the guys you mentioned that have done well.

But don't forget they brought in Morrison, Lynn, Reed, Belisle, Kinley, Austin, and others.

Also if you want to give them credit for players doing better, don't you have to give them credit for players that haven't done better, or the implosion of the starting pitchers in the second half?


Finally you asked - "That's minimal to you?"

and my answer is absolutely, IMO besides Cruz and Gonzalez that is the definition of minimal.


I love what they have done with Littell (and they should be given tons of credit for getting him and moving him to the pen), I really liked getting Dyson and Romo (both guys I think they should have gotten weeks earlier even if it meant paying more) but when you have one of the greatest offensives ever in the game they needed to shore up the starting pitching. As of right now it looks like Berrios game 1 and bullpen games for the next 3 or 4 starts. (sure Odorizzi will probably start game 2, but if they or anybody are expecting more than 5 innings will that is terrible planning)

Does anybody feel comfortable with Gibson or Perez starting against a good lineup right now?

#44 Vanimal46


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Posted 16 September 2019 - 12:21 PM

To answer your original post.

If I was on the Red Sox Search Committee. Falvey would be on my short list.

I would be looking for progressive front offices moving in new directions. I'd be looking at the Dodgers, Astros, Rays, Cubs and Brewers leadership along with the Twins.

Just imagine... the Rays sensibility and combine that with Red Sox resources. The combination of those two things would produce... what the Dodgers are right now.

If I'm Falvey... I take the job. Because the combination of the Rays sensibility and the Red Sox resources is a tactical advantage that the Twins or even the Astros can't fully match.

I've got to imagine that's exactly what the Red Sox want... Someone who has shown success with limited resources and give them a much larger budget to work with.

If I'm Falvey I'm taking that job too... He'd be crazy not to. It's the freaking Red Sox!
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#45 KGB


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Posted 16 September 2019 - 01:56 PM

Doesn't Falvey have 2 more years on his contract with the Twins? 


I'm not sure taking the job is going to be his decision.The Twins would have to agree to let him interview and I'm assuming they would not let him go unless they get compensation.

#46 KirbyDome89


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Posted 16 September 2019 - 05:52 PM


Are you talking about pitching? Because the Twins rank 3rd in MLB in pitching WAR, 4th in FIP, 6th in K/BB, 8th in ERA, etc. That's a complete turnaround by any definition for a staff that consistently ranked at the bottom of the league in almost every category for six straight years before Falvine arrived. 

Are we going to lump their April/May performance in with the rest of the season and pretend it's indicative of where they're at right now? They outperformed those two months. Martin Perez and Jake Odorizzi aren't those pitchers, and they aren't producing near that peak. The bullpen benefitted greatly from starters going deep into games and lots of days off early in the year; since then they've been exposed. They were able to hide and protect guys in the pen and I'm glad they were, because the Ws they banked are the difference between winning the division and playing in the wild card. How many solid bullpens could drop their 8th inning setup man and watch him go unclaimed? Parker still ranks 8th amongst all Twins pitchers for WAR, and hilariously he shares that spot with both Gibson and Perez. 


Look at the 1st and 2nd half splits. The staff ERA rose over a full run from May through August. They're league average in the 2nd half in terms of OPS+, and that's with the benefit of pitching in easily the worst division in baseball, and in the AL where nearly half the teams have a shot at losing 90 or more games. The disparity between playoff teams and non-contenders is vast. If the Twins rank near or at league average it tells me what I already know, they've got an offense that will carry them and a staff that's good enough to weather a poor division but won't stack up come October. If that was goal then mission accomplished I guess, but in 3+ years I was hoping for more significant change, especially when this FO was handed this core group of position players. 

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