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Front Page: Moneyball Redux: Will Red Sox Raid Twins' Front Office?

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#21 Vanimal46

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Posted 13 September 2019 - 09:21 AM

The Yankees set an MLB record with 29 players spending time on the IL this year. But that's cool, we can default to the poor Twins have so much adversity to deal with argument.
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#22 mikelink45

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Posted 13 September 2019 - 09:22 AM

I have to jump on the list that is still holding back judgment - for at least two more years.This has been a fun year, but I would add that it is not just the Yankees who have joined us in the injury parade - so has the Dodgers and a number of other teams that are not ready for contention.  

 

On ESPN they quoted this stat - "According to Spotrac.com, the teams with the most injured list days on the season are as follows: 1. Yankees; 2. Padres; 3. Phillies; 4. Pirates; 5. Angels. The site also expresses this as "$ Spent on DL Players," which has this top five: 1. Yankees; 2. Mets; 3. Phillies; 4. Red Sox; 5. Mariners."

 

NOTE - We are not on the list.And it you look at what they did to fill the holes and compare it to the Twins there is another lesson to ponder.

 

Crisis management is key to success and our squad is crawling to the finish line.Lets see the results before we start worrying about Boston raiding our office - this off season I am more interested in what we will have left of a rotation!

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#23 Cap'n Piranha

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Posted 13 September 2019 - 09:23 AM

 

They haven't suffered more injury than other teams. When your backup plan is Lamont Wade, Ryan Lamarre, et al, it's on you.

 

For one thing, they did the absolute minimum possible at the deadline. 2 relievers. No starter, no position help. They banked on health, and continued record setting offensive performance.

 

Incorrect, the absolute minimum possible would be to do exactly nothing.Instead, they acquired two relievers who have helped push a bullpen to be 3rd in WAR, 10th in ERA, 4th in FIP, and 9th in xFIP, while being second best in bb rate and 11th in k rate.Prior to trade deadline they were 6th, 14th, 10th, 11th, 6th, and 10th.In other words, almost across the board improvement.

 

Also, it's worth noting that Lamont Wade and Ryan LaMarre aren't the backup plan; they're the backup backup plan.Neither would be getting any kind of regular playing time if not for injuries to 2 of 3 starters and the next two options (Buxton and Kepler, Cave and Gonzalez).Furthermore, it is just ridiculous to think a team should be able to roster multiple 2-3 WAR players in the minors.

 

Finally, if you look at Wade's stats, you'll see that despite a .562 OPS, he actually has 0 WAR.Dig deeper, and you'll notice that he has a 29% bb rate compared to a 7% k rate--his OPS is being dragged down by an impossibly unsustainable BABIP of .133, particularly considering he only makes 13% soft contact.If Wade had a completely normal BABIP of .300, based on 15 PA's where put the ball in play, he'd have 4.5 hits; round that up to 5, and he's now slashing .294/.556/.294/.850.Even if it was 4 hits, the line would be .235/.519/.235/.754 (not for nothing, but Eddie Rosario's OPS for the year is now .783).

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#24 SpicyGarvSauce

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Posted 13 September 2019 - 09:40 AM

 

Yankees are missing: Stanton, Andujar, Bird, Hicks, Ellsbury, Tauchmann, and now Encarnacion

 

Twins missing: Kepler, Buxton, Sano, Marwin, Cron (basically), Cave, and now Adrianza

 

I count 7 and 7. What am I missing here that it's "not even close"?

Proof that not all things are not created equal.

Edited by SpicyGarvSauce, 13 September 2019 - 09:41 AM.

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#25 Cap'n Piranha

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Posted 13 September 2019 - 09:42 AM

 

The Yankees set an MLB record with 29 players spending time on the IL this year. But that's cool, we can default to the poor Twins have so much adversity to deal with argument.

 

I don't think Nick brought that up as a season-long thing, but more in comparison to Chief's comment about last night's lineup.The Twins were missing their 1st, 5th, 6th, 10th, 12th, and 14th ranked hitters by WAR last night.If you look at just the second half, it's 3rd, 5th, 7th, 9th, and 10th, so essentially 44% of their lineup and their top backup.

 

The Yankees were missing their 6th, 11th, 13th, 18th, 46th, and 50th ranked hitters (Ellsbury hasn't played the entire year, but also hasn't posted a 2+ WAR season since 2014--let's not pretend he's a huge loss).For just the second half, it was their 3rd, 6th, and 15th (Stanton, Andujar, and Bird have not played in the second half).If you're arguing that the Yankees have had more injury issues than the Twins for the year, I'll agree with you, but not if you're talking about currently.

 

Finally, if anyone expects the Twins to be able to match the Yankees for depth, particularly when the Twins are just at the beginning of an unexpected competitive window, you're setting yourself up to be disappointed.

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#26 Cap'n Piranha

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Posted 13 September 2019 - 09:49 AM

 

Falvine inherited this entire lineup except Cron and Cruz. They also inherited Berrios, Rogers, Duffy and May (and Pressly) and Gibson if that is a positive. They have done some good things but have screwed up plenty. Let’s be careful about associating every part of this season as a credit to them

 

And Gonzalez.They also signed Pineda and acquired Odorizzi, Romo, and Dyson.They have developed Kepler, Garver, Polanco, Arraez, Rogers, and Duffey to much more than anyone thought they would be when the calendar flipped to 2017, while overseeing the reclamation of Buxton and Sano.They've done some stupid things, but have also hit plenty of homeruns.Let's be careful about associating every bad part of this season as solely Falvine's fault.

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#27 Cap'n Piranha

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Posted 13 September 2019 - 09:56 AM

 

They lost their best pitcher for nearly the whole season, he just came back. I mean, sure, if you for some reason only want to look at two weeks, the twins might be worse off, but that's just silly.

Cron, Cave, and Adrianza can't hold a candle compared to the Yankees injured. Seriously.

 

The Twins lineup last night was missing 11.8 WAR from just this year (12.4 if you count Adrianza).The Yankees were missing 3.6.If you did the WAR for the last full year for each of the Yankees players, it's 17.4, but that is also counting this year for Tauchman--use last year's number for him and it's 14.3.Did the Yankees theoretically have more WAR missing from last night's lineup?Sure, but it's much closer thank you think.


#28 Nick Nelson

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Posted 13 September 2019 - 10:02 AM

 

What's false?

 

They're temporarily down several players, but have enjoyed relative health through the season. They certainly haven't endured what Cleveland did. Nor the Yankees.

Your comment was that they should be criticized based on the lineup last night. On balance, the Twins have had an offense this year that is about equal to New York's (with their $200M payroll) and vastly better than Cleveland's. That's a huge credit to the front office and it's really odd to me you're so determined to suggest otherwise, even contorting your argument on the fly to do so.

 

The Twins were a basement dweller for almost a decade and now, three years into the new regime, we're criticizing them for not having far-and-away the best and deepest team in all of baseball. Just silly.

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#29 Rosterman

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Posted 13 September 2019 - 10:18 AM

I think there may be some underlying thing where the duo has given the Twins five years of their life, and Pohlad will keep them comfortable. How comfortable is the question. But they might be onto soemthing big here. 2017 caused them issues with success. Just like 2019 is turning out much better than anyone thought, as the duo was building to be competitive and possibly win-it-all in 2021 with the focus on development of players, trades, other signings and such. Money COULD win out, but money doesn't buy you success on the playing field, either. 

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#30 Linus

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Posted 13 September 2019 - 10:38 AM

And Gonzalez. They also signed Pineda and acquired Odorizzi, Romo, and Dyson. They have developed Kepler, Garver, Polanco, Arraez, Rogers, and Duffey to much more than anyone thought they would be when the calendar flipped to 2017, while overseeing the reclamation of Buxton and Sano. They've done some stupid things, but have also hit plenty of homeruns. Let's be careful about associating every bad part of this season as solely Falvine's fault.


Read my post. I didn’t blame them for any part of this season. I merely pointed out that they inherited a good young team. They have done good work with Sano but I believe the reason for improvement in the core is that they are approaching their prime with some experience under their belt
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#31 Cap'n Piranha

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Posted 13 September 2019 - 11:09 AM

 

Read my post. I didn’t blame them for any part of this season. I merely pointed out that they inherited a good young team. They have done good work with Sano but I believe the reason for improvement in the core is that they are approaching their prime with some experience under their belt

 

No, they didn't inherit a good young team.They inherited a team that had just lost 100 games, and through some great signings, a couple of shrewd trades, and generally good player development, have managed to assemble a top 5 team in all of baseball, while still maintaining a top 10 farm system.If you don't want to give them credit for players improving, then you also can't blame them for players declining, and therefore means that there's no real purpose to having a front office.

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#32 Tomj14

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Posted 13 September 2019 - 11:48 AM

 

And Gonzalez.They also signed Pineda and acquired Odorizzi, Romo, and Dyson.They have developed Kepler, Garver, Polanco, Arraez, Rogers, and Duffey to much more than anyone thought they would be when the calendar flipped to 2017, while overseeing the reclamation of Buxton and Sano.They've done some stupid things, but have also hit plenty of homeruns.Let's be careful about associating every bad part of this season as solely Falvine's fault.

We aren't really giving them credit for two time minor league hitter of the year (Garver) or developing Polanco, Arraez or Kepler are we. We could give them credit for lineup placement or even playing them but developing them?

Yes they acquired Pineda for 146 innings and was suspended for PED's. Dyson (who I wanted) has been hurt and has an ERA over 7.00, Romo has been good but also has an ERA higher than May.

They can IMO be given credit for Duffey and Littell, but lets not forget about Parker, Romero, and a host of others that haven't gone so well.

 


#33 Tomj14

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Posted 13 September 2019 - 11:57 AM

 

 

No, they didn't inherit a good young team.They inherited a team that had just lost 100 games, and through some great signings, a couple of shrewd trades.

True they didn't inherit a good your team, they inherited a young team (organization) with a ton of talent.

They minimally surround that talent with some good signings and a some good trades.

They have also did a great job of keeping the minor leagues filled with talent.

And I agree if you do or don't give them credit for improvement you can't or shouldn't blame them for failures.


#34 Cap'n Piranha

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Posted 13 September 2019 - 01:41 PM

 

We aren't really giving them credit for two time minor league hitter of the year (Garver) or developing Polanco, Arraez or Kepler are we. We could give them credit for lineup placement or even playing them but developing them?

Yes they acquired Pineda for 146 innings and was suspended for PED's. Dyson (who I wanted) has been hurt and has an ERA over 7.00, Romo has been good but also has an ERA higher than May.

They can IMO be given credit for Duffey and Littell, but lets not forget about Parker, Romero, and a host of others that haven't gone so well.

 

This goes back to my point above--why wouldn't they get credit for those guys developing?It happened while they were 100% in charge of the baseball operations of this franchise.If you're going to not give them credit for Garver, Polanco, Kepler, or Arraez because you think that credit goes to the player, then in order to be intellectually honest, you can't blame them for Parker, Romero, or any of the others, since that would also go to the player.

 

Pineda's suspension is 0% on Falvine, since Pineda himself said he took the substance without consulting the Twins.Dyson had a 2.47 ERA and 2.72 FIP on the year when the Twins acquired him, when not even the Giants knew he was hurt--Falvine are now supposed to be clairvoyant, and know about injuries players have deliberately hidden when there is absolutely no sign of them?

 

Romo's ERA with the Twins is 3.5, compared to May's 3.04--hardly a huge disparity given the SSS of relievers.In fact, if Romo's next two outings are scoreless, his Twins ERA drops to 3.15; if May gives up one run in his next outing, his ERA rises to 3.14.In other words, its hardly far-fetched to say that after Sunday's game, Romo and May will have essentially identical ERA's.


#35 Cap'n Piranha

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Posted 13 September 2019 - 01:57 PM

 

True they didn't inherit a good your team, they inherited a young team (organization) with a ton of talent.

They minimally surround that talent with some good signings and a some good trades.

They have also did a great job of keeping the minor leagues filled with talent.

And I agree if you do or don't give them credit for improvement you can't or shouldn't blame them for failures.

 

Jake Ododrizzi is 21st for starters in all of baseball in WAR this year, after being 30th last year (22nd for both years combined).

Nelson Cruz is 6th in all of baseball for wRC+.

Marwin Gonzalez has been a key piece to lineup flexibility and giving players breaks, while being 10th on the team in WAR (ahead of Eddie Rosario)

Michael Pineda has been worth 2.7 WAR this year (38th in baseball)

Martin Perez has been worth 1.8 WAR this year (55th in baseball)

Sergio Romo has thrown 18 innings of 3.50 ERA relief, and stabilized a bullpen that is a top 10 unit since he was acquired

Zack Littell, Devin Smeltzer, Jake Cave, and Randy Dobnak all look like they will be significant pieces moving forward, and this all excludes Castro and Schoop (3.6 WAR between them), and Harper (0.9 WAR).

 

So this year, 60% of the rotation, somewhere around 40% of the lineup, and about 25% of the bullpen were brought in by this front office (If everyone is healthy and not suspended, I count 11 players that would be on the Twins Playoff Roster--Odo, Pineda, Perez, Romo, Dyson, Littell, Cruz, Cron, Castro, Schoop, and Gonzalez).That's minimal to you?

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#36 twinstalker

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Posted 13 September 2019 - 05:36 PM

 

Number of playoff games Falvey has won with the Twins = 0. Let's pump the brakes a bit.

LOL.Yeah, I'm thinking Falvey chokes when there's a big game.

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#37 jctwins

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Posted 13 September 2019 - 06:01 PM

At this point this FO personnel is only interesting after everyone in Houston has already told you no.

 

Win a playoff series and then maybe they gain some value. At this point they've done nothing but talk about winning when you look at real results a big name is going to look for.

 

 


#38 Nick Nelson

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Posted 14 September 2019 - 10:12 AM

 

At this point this FO personnel is only interesting after everyone in Houston has already told you no.

 

Win a playoff series and then maybe they gain some value. At this point they've done nothing but talk about winning when you look at real results a big name is going to look for.

Do you really think another team's ownership is gonna say, "Well, they've built a top-tier farm system, turned a 100-loss team to a 100-win team in 3 years, hired some of the most effective coaches in the game, put together one of the best offenses in MLB history... buuuut they lost a best-of-5 series against one of the league's two superior teams, so, not interested."

 

I won't disagree that Houston's front office is the top target but the Twins are not far behind, and may be more ripe for the plundering with two head execs in place. 

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#39 Nine of twelve

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Posted 14 September 2019 - 11:10 AM

Falvey and Levine have been in their positions with the Twins for less than three years. The way to judge their performance so far is not by the number of postseason games won. That would be the height of silliness. Not far behind that in silliness would be to judge them by the makeup of their third-string outfield or to judge them by trade-deadline transactions made in their one and only opportunity when in the position of a probable postseason contender.

 

Three years is a short time when it comes to establishing a baseball operation. The goal here is to have an organization that can support a major league team capable of contending for the postseason every year. That takes top-notch scouting and player development. They appear to have made strides in this regard. Let's see how things are in another three or four years.

Edited by Nine of twelve, 14 September 2019 - 11:13 AM.


#40 Riverbrian

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Posted 14 September 2019 - 11:22 AM

 

Do you really think another team's ownership is gonna say, "Well, they've built a top-tier farm system, turned a 100-loss team to a 100-win team in 3 years, hired some of the most effective coaches in the game, put together one of the best offenses in MLB history... buuuut they lost a best-of-5 series against one of the league's two superior teams, so, not interested."

 

I won't disagree that Houston's front office is the top target but the Twins are not far behind, and may be more ripe for the plundering with two head execs in place. 

 

To answer your original post. 

 

If I was on the Red Sox Search Committee. Falvey would be on my short list. 

 

I would be looking for progressive front offices moving in new directions. I'd be looking at the Dodgers, Astros, Rays, Cubs and Brewers leadership along with the Twins. 

 

Just imagine... the Rays sensibility and combine that with Red Sox resources. The combination of those two things would produce... what the Dodgers are right now. 

 

If I'm Falvey... I take the job. Because the combination of the Rays sensibility and the Red Sox resources is a tactical advantage that the Twins or even the Astros can't fully match. 

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