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Front Page: Twins Game Recap (9/11): Depleted Twins Fail to Match Up With Strasburg and Nationals

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#21 spycake

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Posted 12 September 2019 - 07:43 AM

 

Cleveland has won 4 straight. They have 3 with the Twins this weekend, if they sweep (which they very well could considering both Bieber and Clevenger are going in that series), the Twins will be in a tie for 1st place on Monday morning.

The lead is still 4 games, and Cleveland is off today, so even if the Twins lose today vs Washington *and* get swept in Cleveland, we'd still be a half-game ahead on Monday morning. Although I doubt anyone would feel too confident at that point, regardless of a half-game lead!

 

The earliest the Twins could technically be tied for 1st place would be Tuesday morning. :)

 

 

And Oakland and Tampa are also ahead of Cleveland in the Wild Card. Both of those team by next Tuesday and could very well miss the playoffs entirely.

Oakland is only a half-game ahead of Cleveland (or, 3.5 back of the Twins), and Tampa is only a half-game ahead of them (3 back of the Twins). While it's possibly for a team to make up a 4 game deficit over ~15 games, it's not likely -- and it's even more unlikely that multiple teams would make up a 3-4 game deficit over ~15 games.

 

Fangraphs still has us 95.2% to win the division, and 99.2% to make the playoffs.

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#22 Mike Sixel

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Posted 12 September 2019 - 08:35 AM

How does Garver not hit anywhere in that 8th inning?


His usage this entire year has been mind boggling. Seriously.
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It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#23 birdwatcher

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Posted 12 September 2019 - 08:39 AM

 

This was a good litmus test for the playoffs and I'm not impressed... Over the next couple of weeks they get to pad their stats against terrible teams with bad pitching.

They won't get that luxury come October, and will square off against Strasburg types every night. Right now they don't appear to be up for the challenge.

 

If we're talking strictly about starting pitching, then yes, they clearly don't appear to be up for the postseason challenge against the top teams in baseball.

 

But we have to cut them some slack regarding last night's game against Strassberg. Cruz looks like he's still not feeling great. Rosario looks to be nursing a couple of body parts IMO. That game may have gone so much differently with Kepler in RF and in the lineup, and with a healthy Sano, Cave, Gonzales. Garver and Cron.

 

This team has the ability to sneak in a win against a top pitcher who has something other than his best stuff, but they gotta get healthy.

 

They need to win a game in Cleveland. Not an easy thing right now.

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#24 AceWrigley

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Posted 12 September 2019 - 08:42 AM

And I have it down at 100% we'll all be sweatin' bullets until the regular season is over.

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#25 Richard Swerdlick

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Posted 12 September 2019 - 08:47 AM

Maybe I worry too much, but to my way of thinking we do not have a spot clinched for the playoffs and certainly not the division championship. I have seen too many teams fold down the end to take anything for granted.

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#26 JLease

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Posted 12 September 2019 - 08:51 AM

 

This was a good litmus test for the playoffs and I'm not impressed... Over the next couple of weeks they get to pad their stats against terrible teams with bad pitching.

They won't get that luxury come October, and will square off against Strasburg types every night. Right now they don't appear to be up for the challenge.

 

This is only a playoff litmus if you expect Kepler, Gonzalez, & Sano to be injured/unavailable in the playoffs. We didn't exactly have the full squad out there last night on offense...or defense.

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#27 Cap'n Piranha

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Posted 12 September 2019 - 09:14 AM

Eddie Rosario after last night now has a 99 wRC+, and is only worth 0.9 WAR, due to being the 10th worst defensive outfielder in the game.His OBP is under .300, and his supposed strength (big moments) is also eroding, as he's down to a 103 wRC+ in high leverage.He hasn't had a monthly OPS above .800 since June (and even that was .810).Either Eddie is hurt, or he needs to be dropped to 8th or 9th in the order now.

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#28 MMMordabito

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Posted 12 September 2019 - 09:16 AM

 

Martin Perez didn't get a lot of help, though he didn't help himself out much either. Here's the Twins Pitch:

 

 

I think that is the perfect summation. He got BABIP'd by Soto and Zimmerman early with Polanco just out of range on Soto's grounder, but he walked Rendon to setup the second run.

 

Eddie took a bad route and the crosswind helped make him pay for that inside-out Kendrick liner, but Perez lost his focus and served up a pipeshot to Zimmerman.

 

 

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#29 LA VIkes Fan

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Posted 12 September 2019 - 10:22 AM

 

Eddie Rosario after last night now has a 99 wRC+, and is only worth 0.9 WAR, due to being the 10th worst defensive outfielder in the game.His OBP is under .300, and his supposed strength (big moments) is also eroding, as he's down to a 103 wRC+ in high leverage.He hasn't had a monthly OPS above .800 since June (and even that was .810).Either Eddie is hurt, or he needs to be dropped to 8th or 9th in the order now.

I agree and I think Rosario is playing hurt. Watch him run. He can't and he winces every time he swings or tries to put it in gear on the base paths. He had the hamstring strain a few weeks ago and hasn't hit since. He needs to sit for a few days but can't because Kepler, Buxton, Gonzalez and Cave aren't available. 

 

In the short term, I'd think about sitting him, playing Cron every day (if he isn't hurt), and putting Adrianza in the OF.Medium term, Rosario should sit as soon as twoof Kepler, Gonzalez and Cave can play with Arraez covering the LF spot and Schoop at 2B. 

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#30 terrydactyls1947

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Posted 12 September 2019 - 11:37 AM

Yesterday was Wednesday, September 11.It was the 145th game of the year putting the Twins 90% of the way through the season. The Twins hit 1 home run upping their MLB record-breaking season total to 277 home runs.


#31 MMMordabito

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Posted 12 September 2019 - 11:53 AM

 

In the short term, I'd think about sitting him, playing Cron every day (if he isn't hurt), and putting Adrianza in the OF.Medium term, Rosario should sit as soon as twoof Kepler, Gonzalez and Cave can play with Arraez covering the LF spot and Schoop at 2B. 

Yes to this ^

 

I still can't believe the best immediate depth option was Ryan LaMarre.De Aza's AAAA numbers look better.I know his leftiness is redundant with Miller, but I'm looking for a professional PA.Miller is only here to run and catch.Don't need to platoon split that.


#32 Dantes929

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Posted 12 September 2019 - 11:59 AM

 

Maybe I worry too much, but to my way of thinking we do not have a spot clinched for the playoffs and certainly not the division championship. I have seen too many teams fold down the end to take anything for granted.

Reminds me of those game graphs showing odds of winning.You see a team with a huge percentage to win with a 2 run lead but then a 3 run homer turns it on its head.Twins playoffs chances were something like 8% a few years ago but a good stretch of winning can change everything and they got in fairly comfortably.Of course odds are odds for a reason but thats all they are. I have said all season I will be comfortable only when we are up X games with X-1 games to play. That is still true but in my mind this is still going according to script from about a month ago. I thought it would be close in mid September and then the strength of schedule would likely have the Twins prevail in the last 13 games. The only real surprise to me is that we are still ahead 4 games right now. I thought it would be closer to even but to counteract that good result I thought we would be much healthier..Championships aren't supposed to be easy. 

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#33 yarnivek1972

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Posted 12 September 2019 - 12:13 PM

How does Garver not hit anywhere in that 8th inning?


How does he not start given the rest of the lineup?

#34 LA VIkes Fan

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Posted 12 September 2019 - 12:16 PM

The best thing that could happen to us today would be a rain out. That would put Gibson, Odo and Berrios in line for the Cleveland series and move the AAA starter/bullpen game to Chicago. It would also give another day to all of the injured guys - Kepler, Cron, Sano, Cave, Rosario, Cruz , did I miss anybody?

 

Bottom line - C'MON RAIN!!

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#35 howeda7

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Posted 12 September 2019 - 12:24 PM

 

The best thing that could happen to us today would be a rain out. That would put Gibson, Odo and Berrios in line for the Cleveland series and move the AAA starter/bullpen game to Chicago. It would also give another day to all of the injured guys - Kepler, Cron, Sano, Cave, Rosario, Cruz , did I miss anybody?

 

Bottom line - C'MON RAIN!!

Supposedly it's up to the Twins until they start and it's not supposed to stop raining until 9. Having to play an extra game on 9/30 would suck, but there's a pretty decent chance it won't need to be played for either team, and if it needs to be played only for the Nats sake, we can run our line-up from last night out there. I'd give it until like 7:30 and then call it.

Edited by howeda7, 12 September 2019 - 12:25 PM.

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#36 yarnivek1972

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Posted 12 September 2019 - 12:36 PM

His usage this entire year has been mind boggling. Seriously.


Garver missed two weeks in May but has otherwise been healthy. He’s going to finish the year with fewer than 375 PA. Keep in mind that when he does start, he is most likely to bat 1st, 2nd or 5th.

Miguel Sano missed the first six weeks of the season, rarely bats higher than 5th and already has more than 375 PA.

If Garver isn’t comfortable at first base, that is on the Twins, because he needs to play there a lot on days when he isn’t catching.

Garver has a 159 w/RC, which would be 4th in the AL if he had the PA to qualify, just ahead of Nelson Cruz snd a .410 w/OBA, which would be 3rd, also ahead of Cruz. With more PA he would likely be in serious consideration for league MVP given the position he plays. He is putting up Piazza type numbers and is considerably better defensively than Piazza ever was.
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#37 h2oface

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Posted 12 September 2019 - 12:44 PM

 

Eddie Rosario after last night now has a 99 wRC+, and is only worth 0.9 WAR, due to being the 10th worst defensive outfielder in the game.His OBP is under .300, and his supposed strength (big moments) is also eroding, as he's down to a 103 wRC+ in high leverage.He hasn't had a monthly OPS above .800 since June (and even that was .810).Either Eddie is hurt, or he needs to be dropped to 8th or 9th in the order now.

 

If nothing else.... to send him a message and light a fire under his......

 

And........ what is Rosario doing in right field, now, anyway. It just makes for a further unstable outfield. Not only in right field unstable, but so is left. I know he has played several games there, but he is now a left fielder. How quickly our outfield turned into a weakness instead of a strength.

Edited by h2oface, 12 September 2019 - 01:09 PM.


#38 LA VIkes Fan

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Posted 12 September 2019 - 12:47 PM

 

Garver missed two weeks in May but has otherwise been healthy. He’s going to finish the year with fewer than 375 PA. Keep in mind that when he does start, he is most likely to bat 1st, 2nd or 5th.

Miguel Sano missed the first six weeks of the season, rarely bats higher than 5th and already has more than 375 PA.

If Garver isn’t comfortable at first base, that is on the Twins, because he needs to play there a lot on days when he isn’t catching.

Garver has a 159 w/RC, which would be 4th in the AL if he had the PA to qualify, just ahead of Nelson Cruz snd a .410 w/OBA, which would be 3rd, also ahead of Cruz. With more PA he would likely be in serious consideration for league MVP given the position he plays. He is putting up Piazza type numbers and is considerably better defensively than Piazza ever was.

I agree but have one question. Could Garver keep up this level of production or something close if he got 550 PAs instead of 375? Maybe the rest is one of the reasons he's been so productive. 

Edited by LA VIkes Fan, 12 September 2019 - 12:47 PM.


#39 h2oface

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Posted 12 September 2019 - 12:48 PM

 

I agree but have one question. Could Garver keep up this level of production or something close if he got 550 PAs instead of 375? Maybe the rest is one of the reasons he's been so productive. 

 Only one way to find the answer that question...... and the extras shouldn't be behind the plate.

Edited by h2oface, 12 September 2019 - 12:59 PM.

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#40 Mike Sixel

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Posted 12 September 2019 - 12:58 PM

I agree but have one question. Could Garver keep up this level of production or something close if he got 550 PAs instead of 375? Maybe the rest is one of the reasons he's been so productive.


Even if he dropped twenty points he'd still be more valuable than not playing at all... Maybe even more. That also doesn't explain the lack of pinch at bats....

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 




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