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Front Page: Bronx Bombers Catch the Bomba Squad. Can Twins Regain Record?

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#1 John Bonnes

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Posted 11 September 2019 - 06:11 AM

Can the Twins keep the home run record? Let's break it down.

Last night in the middle of the Twins 5-0 win over the Washington Nationals, the news broke: the New York Yankees had tied – and then PASSED – the Twins in home run totals. A clutch two-run home run by Mitch Garver put the Twins back into a tie before the night was over, but is the Bomba Counter a sham? Can the Twins stay ahead of the Yankees in the home run race?The bad news first: the Yankees are on a tear. They caught the Twins last night because they hit SIX home runs versus Ron Gardenhire’s toothless Tigers. Hooray pitch to contact!. Even worse is that was just their first game against them this week. They have two more.

And it's not just one game. New York has averaged 2.5 per game over their last 35 games, which doesn’t sound like that big a deal (because who really pays attention to numbers after decimal points, amirite?) except that’s a 400+ home runs per year pace.

The good news? The Twins have two games more to play than the Yankees. So on a game-to-game basis, the Twins are technically eight home runs ahead. But with all the nagging injuries in the Twins lineup, their home run pace has slowed considerably. Since September first, the Twins have eight home runs in nine games. If that trend continues, those two games mean only two home runs, and the Yankees have already passed that by six home runs.

A longer term view shows just how consistent each team has been, and how the Twins curve has flattened out over the last couple of weeks while the Yankees’ has trended up. To help you out, I’ve highlighted the part that is not good.

Download attachment: Home_run_notgood_JB_900.jpg

Does the schedule help? A little. The Twins will face some pretty good pitching over the next five games versus the Nationals and the Indians, but then they get to face the bottom three in the AL Central again. They’ve hit 71 home runs versus the White Sox and Tigers this year in 36 games, or about two per game. Unfortunately, the Yankees finish their season at Texas, a ballpark notorious for giving up home runs.

I’m not going to sugar-coat this: it’s not looking good. The Twins’ home run pace has slowed, they are banged up and need to focus on winning a division. The Yankees are hot, getting healthier and can coast. It’s been a heck of a fun year, but it looks like the Twins will (again) have their lunch money stolen again by those Damn Yankees.

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#2 the_brute_squad

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Posted 11 September 2019 - 06:15 AM

The only HR's that will mater will be the ones we hit against the Yankees in the postseason.

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#3 LeatherAntenna

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Posted 11 September 2019 - 06:32 AM

Technically eight homeruns up? They are averaging 1.95 per game, so isn’t that just under four games up?
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#4 yarnivek1972

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Posted 11 September 2019 - 06:40 AM

If the Twins get rained out tonight and tomorrow and the games don’t need to be made up, the Twins would only have 160 regular season games. It’s possible, the Nationals have a 2 1/2 game lead for the top wild card spot. If it is at least that after the 29th, they won’t play the games. Of course, that also assumes that the Twins clinch the Central before then without those two games.

Edited by yarnivek1972, 11 September 2019 - 06:43 AM.


#5 Dman

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Posted 11 September 2019 - 06:41 AM

Being home run kings was just a surprising and fun development that I never saw coming this year.We still have a slim chance to beat them but I am not sure that it matters that much to me. 

 

Would it have been nice bragging rights sure but I think with the way teams are going to be put together now that record might continue to be broken for a while.Whether we win it or not we have proven we can play with the big boys and have a dangerous lineup where almost any player can go yard at any time.That is good enough for me.

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#6 John Bonnes

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Posted 11 September 2019 - 06:42 AM

 

Technically eight homeruns up? They are averaging 1.95 per game, so isn’t that just under four games up?

 

The Yankees have played two more games than the Twins. If you take away the Yankees two games (because the Twins have not played those two games yet) the Yankees would be eight home runs back, because that's where they sat two games ago.

 

But a more accurate way (in my mind) of thinking about it is that with two games in hand, it means the Twins are "up" as many home runs as you think they'll hit in those two games. For the season, that's about four home runs up. But for the last week-plus, that's just two home runs, which Rick Anderson's pitching staff should have no trouble making up. 

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#7 h2oface

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Posted 11 September 2019 - 06:48 AM

No need to factor in the Twins are banged up, really. I mean........ it's not like the Yankees have been even close to fully staffed by all their sluggers all season, and Stanton has been totally absent. The Twins are slowing down, even those (except Garver, it seems) that aren't nicked up.

 

But it ain't over until it's over. I hope the Twins do take and keep the record. I really do. That would mean winning a bunch of games in September. And records do matter. That is why we keep track of them. 

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#8 Jham

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Posted 11 September 2019 - 06:55 AM

Also, MLB wants the Yankees (not the Twins) to have the record. I don't discount that.

#9 JW24

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Posted 11 September 2019 - 07:16 AM

Yankees can have this record. It would not, in any way, diminish this Twins season if they do not end the year with the most homers hit. AL Central champions is far more important.

 

Also, congrats to the Yankees on hitting a whole bunch of homers in a game where they allowed 12 runs to the Tigers and lost. They should feel really good about how they played last night.

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#10 REPETE

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Posted 11 September 2019 - 07:27 AM

 

Yankees can have this record. It would not, in any way, diminish this Twins season if they do not end the year with the most homers hit. AL Central champions is far more important.

 

Also, congrats to the Yankees on hitting a whole bunch of homers in a game where they allowed 12 runs to the Tigers and lost. They should feel really good about how they played last night.

Didn't the Twins surpass the record on a night they lost?To that same Gardy team?

 

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#11 AlwaysinModeration

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Posted 11 September 2019 - 07:36 AM

While it’s a novelty, and would be nice to set the record, I don’t care too much if they finish with more or less than the Yankees. All that matters is the post-season.

I do wonder, though, if MLB does something to swing the pendulum back towards pitchers next year. This year has been crazy with regards to home runs. If so, the record could stand for a while.
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#12 SomeGuy

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Posted 11 September 2019 - 07:38 AM

Impressive given the health issues the Yankees have dealt with all season.

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#13 spycake

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Posted 11 September 2019 - 07:38 AM

 

If the Twins get rained out tonight and tomorrow and the games don’t need to be made up, the Twins would only have 160 regular season games. It’s possible, the Nationals have a 2 1/2 game lead for the top wild card spot. If it is at least that after the 29th, they won’t play the games. Of course, that also assumes that the Twins clinch the Central before then without those two games.

That's true, but I'm guessing neither team wants to potentially play a makeup game after the 29th, let alone two. Especially Washington -- that would likely eat their only off day before the wild card game.

 

I'd be surprised if they don't get both games in to finish this series. They may postpone tonight's game to tomorrow afternoon if necessary, and/or wait out multiple delays, but they'll try. The current forecast suggests the Thursday night game should be OK as scheduled.

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#14 yarnivek1972

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Posted 11 September 2019 - 07:54 AM

That's true, but I'm guessing neither team wants to potentially play a makeup game after the 29th, let alone two. Especially Washington -- that would likely eat their only off day before the wild card game.

I'd be surprised if they don't get both games in to finish this series. They may postpone tonight's game to tomorrow afternoon if necessary, and/or wait out multiple delays, but they'll try. The current forecast suggests the Thursday night game should be OK as scheduled.

I’m looking at the “hourly” forecasts. It shows 60% chance of rain starting at 7 tonight and it doesn’t drop below that percentage until 9 pm Thursday night.

And while I realize the potential importance of getting the games in, I’m pretty sure the last thing the Twins want to do is risk MORE injuries playing in rain or on a soaked field. Keep in mind, until the first pitch is thrown, the decision to play belongs to the Twins.

Edited by yarnivek1972, 11 September 2019 - 07:56 AM.


#15 spycake

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Posted 11 September 2019 - 08:14 AM

 

Also, congrats to the Yankees on hitting a whole bunch of homers in a game where they allowed 12 runs to the Tigers and lost. They should feel really good about how they played last night.

It was a bullpen game for New York, one in which they were mostly using pitchers who won't be on their playoff roster.

 

I'm sure they'd rather win than lose, of course, but they're 99.9% to win their division, and they may even like the 2nd seed (and facing MIN in the first round, against whom they are 4-2) almost as much as the 1st seed (where they'd play either TBR 12-5, OAK 2-4, or CLE 3-4) -- even just having the certainty of knowing/preparing for a single opponent might be nicer than waiting for the wild card game outcome. (AL wild card game is scheduled for Oct. 2nd, and the ALDS begin on Oct. 4)

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#16 spycake

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Posted 11 September 2019 - 08:20 AM

 

I’m looking at the “hourly” forecasts. It shows 60% chance of rain starting at 7 tonight and it doesn’t drop below that percentage until 9 pm Thursday night.

I was looking at hourly too -- 43% at 7 PM tonight, not going above 60% until 11 PM, and dropping to 25% by 8 PM Thursday:

 

https://www.accuweat...ecast/53242_poi

 

Although I'm sure this will change as we get closer.

 

 

And while I realize the potential importance of getting the games in, I’m pretty sure the last thing the Twins want to do is risk MORE injuries playing in rain or on a soaked field. Keep in mind, until the first pitch is thrown, the decision to play belongs to the Twins.

That may be so, but I'm pretty sure the Twins will exercise any discretion within a set of acceptable standards. I doubt they'd be able to cancel two games in row -- late in the season, with potential playoff implications and no possible make-up days -- that they'd otherwise try to play if they weren't down a few outfielders.

Edited by spycake, 11 September 2019 - 08:42 AM.


#17 USAFChief

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Posted 11 September 2019 - 08:24 AM

Didn't the Twins surpass the record on a night they lost? To that same Gardy team?

is that the night the twins hit 6...and lost?
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Cutting my carbs...with a pizza slicer.


#18 AlwaysinModeration

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Posted 11 September 2019 - 08:40 AM

It was a bullpen game for New York, one in which they were mostly using pitchers who won't be on their playoff roster.

I'm sure they'd rather win than lose, of course, but they're 99.9% to win their division, and they may even like the 2nd seed (and facing MIN in the first round, against whom they are 4-2) almost as much as the 1st seed (where they'd play either TBR 12-5, OAK 2-4, or CLE 3-4) -- even just having the certainty of knowing/preparing for a single opponent might be nicer than waiting for the wild card game outcome. (AL wild card game is scheduled for Oct. 2nd, and the ALDS begin on Oct. 4)


Deja vu
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#19 JW24

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Posted 11 September 2019 - 09:19 AM

 

Didn't the Twins surpass the record on a night they lost?To that same Gardy team?

Yeah, but the Twins only gave up 10 runs in the game they lost!

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#20 JW24

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Posted 11 September 2019 - 09:24 AM

 

It was a bullpen game for New York, one in which they were mostly using pitchers who won't be on their playoff roster.

With Edwin Jackson starting for Detroit, it was really a bullpen game for both teams. I think in a battle of bullpens, the Yanks still hold a pretty sizable advantage.

 

I recognize my original post was pretty salty. The Twins were going to set a new record in the Tigers series at some point. The Yanks (mostly fans on Twitter) celebrating tying the Twins HR total in a game they lost to the worst team in baseball is what mostly set me off. Also, because I kind of want the Twins to have the record at the end of the season.

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