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Red Sox fire GM Dave Dombrowski

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#41 birdwatcher

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Posted 09 September 2019 - 02:59 PM

 

He developed and graduated several top prospects during his tenure... And traded away the "cream of the crop" before they declined to nothing.

Moncada is a good to great player. Kopech has a chance to be good 1-2 years down the line.

Anderson Espinoza on Fangraphs was a 70 FV player (can't miss!) and was out of baseball 2 years after.

https://blogs.fangra...by-surplus-war/

You know this very well, Bird. Rankings are just that, rankings. I'll take a #30 farm system for a WS title over a top 5 farm system with decent results like our Twins.

 

 

I get why you'd make that trade. Maybe because I lived a few blocks from the stadium and soaked in every minute of the 1987 WS in that dump I feel differently. 

 

Your link to the FG spreadsheet? Do you realize that perhaps not a single player in the Twins current lineup would have been represented in that analysis? Okay, maybe Buxton.

 

That means, according to this author, the Twins could not have executed on a strategy of acquiring current MLB talent similar to what they have today. Their assets weren't valuable enough. No one was gonna give you jack for guys who couldn'rt even make a Topp 100 prospect list. You know, guys like Kepler, Polanco, Rosario, Garver, Arraez, Sano, Gibson...

 

Moncada at one point I believe was right behind Lindor on the prospect lists, a slot or two ahead of Kopech.

 

We could have parted with Lewis, Kirilloff, Graterol, and Larnach in 2019, the four prospects we have that WOULD have made it to that 2016 analysis, and picked up who? Bumgarner? Robbie Ray? For what? To lose to Houston 3 games to 2 in the postseason? 


#42 birdwatcher

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Posted 09 September 2019 - 03:05 PM

 

Chicago also winning the trade does not mean Boston lost it. Take Sale away, and add another hitter to that team, do they win a WS? Probably not. Because they aren't winning this year mostly because the pitching isn't as good as the last three years....

 

 

Yes, I don't conflate those two things myself. My point has consistently been about acknowledging the longer-term likelihood that the piper is gonna get paid. Which means a guy like Dombrowski is a hero one season and a goat the next if players decline, finances get constricted, and there's a dearth of talent from which to horse-swap yourself back into contention.


#43 birdwatcher

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Posted 09 September 2019 - 03:43 PM

 

I would trade Lewis and Graterol as well for a 28 year old stud pitcher like Sale. Perhaps you're too negative about Sale's one injury riddled year? Is there any indication he's not going to bounce back next year?

 

 

Very well could be, Vanimal. I had a long career of having to manage against performance volatility and investment risk, and I never had to deal with an asset as unpredictably volatile as a major league pitcher.

So yeah, overpaying for even a stud like Sale unnerves me.

 

Moncada, Kopech, and Basabe is a better return for Chicago than Lewis, Graterol, and say, Rooker would have been, much better if fact.

Edited by birdwatcher, 09 September 2019 - 03:49 PM.


#44 USAFChief

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Posted 09 September 2019 - 04:23 PM

Just would like to say, this thread is great. Plenty of strongly held opinions, strongly stated, with evidence and logic on all sides, and nary a nose out of joint or insult hurled.

 

Kudos all around.

 

For the record, my opinion is, there almost has to be more to the story. I can't imagine firing Dombrowski a year after a WS title based solely on baseball reasons.

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#45 birdwatcher

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Posted 09 September 2019 - 04:51 PM

 

Just would like to say, this thread is great. Plenty of strongly held opinions, strongly stated, with evidence and logic on all sides, and nary a nose out of joint or insult hurled.

 

Kudos all around.

 

For the record, my opinion is, there almost has to be more to the story. I can't imagine firing Dombrowski a year after a WS title based solely on baseball reasons.

 

 

Oh, shut up, Chief.:D

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#46 spycake

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Posted 09 September 2019 - 04:58 PM

I think you may be downplaying the Sale cost. Moncada is an absolute stud. We can only hope Royce Lewis matches him.


And Devers might be even better, at the same position...

#47 old nurse

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Posted 09 September 2019 - 05:11 PM

 

A least some of those bad contracts are on Cherrington also, in fact more than Dombrowski, so let's not forget that this was a joint effort.

Only Porcello's contract. One year of that he was a Cy Young winner, another he was more than decent.


#48 spycake

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Posted 09 September 2019 - 05:23 PM

Only Porcello's contract. One year of that he was a Cy Young winner, another he was more than decent.


Sandoval and Rusney Castillo are still getting paid by the Red Sox, and both were signed by Cherington.

Edited by spycake, 09 September 2019 - 05:24 PM.


#49 nicksaviking

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Posted 09 September 2019 - 05:47 PM

Just would like to say, this thread is great. Plenty of strongly held opinions, strongly stated, with evidence and logic on all sides, and nary a nose out of joint or insult hurled.
 
Kudos all around.
 
For the record, my opinion is, there almost has to be more to the story. I can't imagine firing Dombrowski a year after a WS title based solely on baseball reasons.


Not to mention he was also fired late in the year by Detroit, which also seemed like odd timing.

I might think it’s to let the replacement get his feet wet before the offseason starts, but that wouldn’t explain why it seems to only happen to Dombrowski.
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#50 Vanimal46

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Posted 09 September 2019 - 06:37 PM

Not to mention he was also fired late in the year by Detroit, which also seemed like odd timing.

I might think it’s to let the replacement get his feet wet before the offseason starts, but that wouldn’t explain why it seems to only happen to Dombrowski.


Pure speculation. He could have been preparing for the off-season and said I need a contract to continue doing this otherwise let me go now.
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#51 ashbury

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Posted 09 September 2019 - 07:13 PM

Pure speculation. He could have been preparing for the off-season and said I need a contract to continue doing this otherwise let me go now.

Pure speculation likewise, but I think he gave them an ultimatum about off-season strategy, and got an answer he didn't expect - perhaps one straight out of Chief's playbook:

 

"Let me ignore the Luxury Tax on team salaries, or I'm gone."

"Yes."

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#52 spycake

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Posted 09 September 2019 - 07:39 PM

 

Pure speculation likewise, but I think he gave them an ultimatum about off-season strategy, and got an answer he didn't expect - perhaps one straight out of Chief's playbook:

 

"Let me ignore the Luxury Tax on team salaries, or I'm gone."

"Yes."

I don't know about that. The Red Sox shed $50+ mil in Sandoval, Porcello, and assorted miscellaneous non-contributor salaries this offseason (Nunez, Pearce, etc.). They'll still be way up there in payroll, but I doubt Dombrowski would see a need to go beyond 2019 spending levels in 2020.


#53 spycake

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Posted 09 September 2019 - 07:42 PM

 

Pure speculation. He could have been preparing for the off-season and said I need a contract to continue doing this otherwise let me go now.

Yeah, having just one year left on his deal (2020) seems important here. Like, he wanted an extension, they didn't want to give him one, but they didn't want him to spend a year as a lame duck either.

 

Boston's had a lot of front office turnover the last 10 years, they seem more than willing to let a guy go like this, even one who just won a WS.


#54 birdwatcher

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Posted 09 September 2019 - 08:16 PM

 

And Devers might be even better, at the same position...

 

 

Yes, perhaps. Trade from surplus. 


#55 USAFChief

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Posted 09 September 2019 - 08:20 PM

Oh, shut up, Chief. :D

the smiley face pretty much ruins this.
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#56 howieramone2

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Posted 11 September 2019 - 11:36 AM

 

They won the division more than once. In an off year they will win more than they lose. Why do people fall for this poor owner BS? The Twins haven't even won a playoff series yet, and have one starting pitcher under contract next year. Maybe we should wait to see if they are actually building a sustainable winner just a bit....

No need to wait. I've been around the game long to know a sustainable winner when I see one.