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Red Sox fire GM Dave Dombrowski

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#21 birdwatcher

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Posted 09 September 2019 - 01:27 PM

 

I think this is an over-simplification.

 

Drombowski was in Detroit a long time. He took over an organization that was pretty awful and turned it around to have a decade of sustained success, including 2 pennants and acquiring/developing a few Hall of Famers. He took over a much better club in Boston but he delivered some great results quickly too. Let's pause before we declare the Levine/Falvey approach to be superior, shall we?

 

Dombrowski also did quite well in trades for Detroit:

 

https://www.masslive...mbrowski_5.html

 

Yes, the Tigers biffed a couple contracts at the end, although only Cabrera really stands out as hamstringing the franchise, and of course it was Dombrowski who acquired him relatively cheaply in the first place and oversaw his performance jumping to new level. (And I wonder what ownership pressure was like at that point -- didn't Detroit ownership intervene to sign Prince Fielder a few years earlier, leaving Dombrowski to eventually clean up the mess, which he did fairly well.)

 

Worth remembering the Jordan Zimmermann disaster was on Dombrowski's successor (as was Mike Pelfrey :) ). Detroit was heading for a dry spell although it's possible that Dombrowski could have maneuvered to avoid the current depths. (Dombrowski's successor arguably screwed up by dumping Verlander's contract the way he did too.)

 

Yes, the minor league pipeline dried up and Dombrowski bears some responsibility for that, but after 15 years, even Falvey and Levine will likely have cycles like that. Hopefully they have multiple pennants and Hall of Famers on their resumes when it happens!

 

 

This is a very fair take. Back at the time when the pizza guy was clamoring to not take it with him when he was risen from Detroit, I argued that his approach, spending cash and depleting the farm system, was one way to try to skin the cat, and not the way I'd operate. Reason? Risk. The risk of making a mistake that eventually sets the franchise back, possibly for years. A Cabrera-sized mistake. The risk that you go "all in" and it doesn't work. You're right about his final trades. Things could have been much worse. We'll see about the Verlander haul. We'll see about the Moncada price in Boston. 

 

I think it's harder today to do the spend/mortgage the future type strategy. The risks are higher with established players, and the predictability with prospects has improved, thus lowering those risks, IMO. So, whereas it my have in many ways just have been different ways to skin the cat before, I now have come to believe the superior strategy is what I think our guys are trying to pull off: increase asset player) value simultaneously at both levels, actively manage (trade from surplus) the assets opportunistically with a LT goal of trading excess present value for better future value build through talent development, avoid paralyzing financial transactions, play the long game. We'll see if they're as smart as they think they are in the next couple of years.

 

I don't think Falvey and Levine are very likely to have putrid cycles with the farm system. At least I hope not. They appear to be investing heavily in development, spending in IFA, trading for prospects of value. I'd compare their strategy to that of Brian Cashman's without all the cash, man.

 

 

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#22 nicksaviking

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Posted 09 September 2019 - 01:32 PM

 

The Yankees don't have that deep of pockets unless they go above the luxury tax threshold again.

$164 million in commitments already for 2020. Compared to $149 million for the Red Sox.

https://www.spotrac....b/payroll/2020/

 

That's great, they have 15M less on the books. But that 15M isn't going to get them the pitching they need to over take the Yankees.

 

Even so, we've already seen that nearly every team in the league is now shying away from big ticket free agents in favor of developing their own cost effective roster. I don't think it's out of line to suggest that this is not Dombrowski's strength. So why aren't the Red Sox allowed to get on with modern baseball trends? Heck, they have Bill James and he basically was the impetus for new ideas and evolution.

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#23 Mike Sixel

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Posted 09 September 2019 - 01:35 PM

The farm wasn't good before....read this for perspective:

 

https://www.theringe...ton-red-sox-mlb

 

ninja'd by vanimal.....

Edited by Mike Sixel, 09 September 2019 - 01:37 PM.

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It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#24 Mike Sixel

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Posted 09 September 2019 - 01:37 PM

 

That's great, they have 15M less on the books. But that 15M isn't going to get them the pitching they need to over take the Yankees.

 

Even so, we've already seen that nearly every team in the league is now shying away from big ticket free agents in favor of developing their own cost effective roster. I don't think it's out of line to suggest that this is not Dombrowski's strength. So why aren't the Red Sox allowed to get on with modern baseball trends? Heck, they have Bill James and he basically was the impetus for new ideas and evolution.

 

because they care more about making more millions than winning......that's why every team is doing it. Also, they've somehow convinced fans that this is a good idea. Money>winning.

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It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#25 Tomj14

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Posted 09 September 2019 - 01:38 PM

 

No, not really. I think most would think that was a good move.

If the Twins can afford to spend 18 million on a guy that that didn't pitch 6 innings in 19 of his 28 starts and only twice went more than 6 innings compared to a Wheeler who went 7 11 times and I wouldn't give Wheeler 18 million, but I will stop since this is off topic because it hasn't been done yet.


#26 Vanimal46

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Posted 09 September 2019 - 01:38 PM

That's great, they have 15M less on the books. But that 15M isn't going to get them the pitching they need to over take the Yankees.

Even so, we've already seen that nearly every team in the league is now shying away from big ticket free agents in favor of developing their own cost effective roster. I don't think it's out of line to suggest that this is not Dombrowski's strength. So why aren't the Red Sox allowed to get on with modern baseball trends? Heck, they have Bill James and he basically was the impetus for new ideas and evolution.

Dombrowski has been doing this for so long we can find examples of high profile FA signings, draft/development, savvy trades for rising stars, rebuilds, and retools.

I don't think it's fair to suggest rebuilding a roster isn't his strength. Perhaps he doesn't want to do it, but he's capable.

He was the one who drafted/developed Verlander, and traded for Scherzer/Cabrera before they became generational stars.

His problem seems to be overpaying for his talent after they develop into stars. Which is really only possible to criticize in hindsight.

Edited by Vanimal46, 09 September 2019 - 01:39 PM.

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#27 Mike Sixel

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Posted 09 September 2019 - 01:40 PM

 

I think with the number of bad contracts Boston has on the books, it may take a while to get back to the top.Pitching is going to be expensive and that is Boston's shortcomings.Plus at least one key cog is an FA after 2020 and it is going to take a boatload of money to sign him.  

With Dave you know what you are getting, the Red Sox are in better shape, since they can spend around the max a year and still make money. Sucess may elude them for a few years without very good buys and most of them correct, but Cashman and the Yankees have shown the model for this type of club.You have to have good young talent to suceed and the Yankees have found that.Boston still needs the pitching.

 

the Yankees traded for one of the biggest contracts in the game. Yes, they did a MUCH better job of buying IFA than the Sox, but the rules changed after DD got there.......not sure how he was supposed to catch up to them. 

 

The Sox had a bad farm system when DD took over. They traded exactly 1 very good player in the time DD was there. 

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#28 spycake

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Posted 09 September 2019 - 01:59 PM

 

This is a very fair take. Back at the time when the pizza guy was clamoring to not take it with him when he was risen from Detroit, I argued that his approach, spending cash and depleting the farm system, was one way to try to skin the cat, and not the way I'd operate. Reason? Risk. The risk of making a mistake that eventually sets the franchise back, possibly for years. A Cabrera-sized mistake. The risk that you go "all in" and it doesn't work. You're right about his final trades. Things could have been much worse. We'll see about the Verlander haul. We'll see about the Moncada price in Boston. 

"We'll see" about the Verlander and Moncada trades? Verlander has been awesome for multiple years and the prospects marginal at best. Sale already won Boston a World Series, and the Red Sox have a 3B who is arguably better than Moncada with equal years of control remaining.

 

That's a pretty extreme standard of reserving judgement, no? Why not equally reserve judgement about the Falvey/Levine approach?

Edited by spycake, 09 September 2019 - 02:03 PM.

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#29 birdwatcher

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Posted 09 September 2019 - 02:02 PM

 

Let's talk about the Red Sox "gutting" the farm:

Chris Sale trade:

Yoan Moncada - finally living up to his #1 overall prospect hype 3 years after they traded him. 2 years service time now.

Michael Kopech - lots of hype, blew out his arm and missed 2019.

Luis Basabe - career .695 OPS in AA. Entering age 23 season in 2020.

Victor Diaz - out of baseball

Craig Kimbrel Trade:

Manuel Margot - 1.5 bWAR player the last 2 years. 6.1 total bWAR.

Javy Guerra - no bat SS. .665 career OPS in the minors.

Logan Allen - Now on Cleveland Indians.

Carlos Asuaje - now a 27 year old no bat 2B toiling in Arizona's system.

Drew Pomeranz trade:

Anderson Espinoza - out of baseball.

He actually did a good job keeping the young core together that we are familiar with. There were rumors in the past of trading Benintendi for Hamels. He was also reluctant to trade Boegarts and Devers as well.

Can anyone show me where he "gutted" the Red Sox farm system?

 

 

I think you may be downplaying the Sale cost. Moncada is an absolute stud. We can only hope Royce Lewis matches him. Kopech, even sidelined after TJ, has a higher FV with Fangraphs than our hotshot Graterol, and very few doubt his potential to become a Sale-like ace. And Basabe has a higher FV than two dozen Twins prospects we are excited about, including Rooker, Cellestino, Gordon, Raley, Wallner, Baddoo, Enlow, Balosovic...I like Chicago's chances of looking at that trade as lopsided in their favor, especially over the next 5 years or so.


#30 birdwatcher

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Posted 09 September 2019 - 02:05 PM

 

I agree he had a hand in both, although more for the pennants than the 2019 club, as he's been out of the org since 2015. It's possible that Dombrowski's 2019 Tigers would still feature an aging gracefully Verlander, and something better for the Zimmermann money. Maybe instead of shedding payroll and playing guys like Goodrum, he would have been actively pursuing his next Scherzer/Cabrera/Polanco type acquisition.

 

 

Don't you think ownership would have hamstrung him and prevented him from spending? Don't you think Scherzer/Cabrera type deals are a lot fewer and far between? He was not some trading savant.


#31 birdwatcher

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Posted 09 September 2019 - 02:12 PM

 

Let's talk about the Red Sox "gutting" the farm:

Chris Sale trade:

Yoan Moncada - finally living up to his #1 overall prospect hype 3 years after they traded him. 2 years service time now.

Michael Kopech - lots of hype, blew out his arm and missed 2019.

Luis Basabe - career .695 OPS in AA. Entering age 23 season in 2020.

Victor Diaz - out of baseball

Craig Kimbrel Trade:

Manuel Margot - 1.5 bWAR player the last 2 years. 6.1 total bWAR.

Javy Guerra - no bat SS. .665 career OPS in the minors.

Logan Allen - Now on Cleveland Indians.

Carlos Asuaje - now a 27 year old no bat 2B toiling in Arizona's system.

Drew Pomeranz trade:

Anderson Espinoza - out of baseball.

He actually did a good job keeping the young core together that we are familiar with. There were rumors in the past of trading Benintendi for Hamels. He was also reluctant to trade Boegarts and Devers as well.

Can anyone show me where he "gutted" the Red Sox farm system?

 

I rely on farm system rankings. Prior to the 2019 Rule 4, Fangraphs ranked their farm system dead last. Yep. 30th best. Maybe others get credit for some of that. But I think the loss of Kopech and Moncada alone soured the pundits on their system.


#32 nicksaviking

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Posted 09 September 2019 - 02:15 PM

 

because they care more about making more millions than winning......that's why every team is doing it. Also, they've somehow convinced fans that this is a good idea. Money>winning.

 

I think developing a strong farm system is important even if you are spending money. He's a square peg for a round hole in 2019. 

 

Nothing has to be his fault, there doesn't have to be something that he's done wrong, but most folks on this site were asking for a change in Gardy and Ryan's 20th century approach to baseball long before the team hit rock bottom; our team was absolutely not proactive. With their payroll the Red Sox will never be at the nadir the Twins were at, but they sure can wallow in mediocrity if they don't watch out. What's wrong with seeing new trends and adjusting your team's strategy, especially once your arch rival has made it clear that they're now king of the division?


#33 Tomj14

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Posted 09 September 2019 - 02:26 PM

 

I think you may be downplaying the Sale cost. Moncada is an absolute stud. We can only hope Royce Lewis matches him. Kopech, even sidelined after TJ, has a higher FV with Fangraphs than our hotshot Graterol, and very few doubt his potential to become a Sale-like ace. And Basabe has a higher FV than two dozen Twins prospects we are excited about, including Rooker, Cellestino, Gordon, Raley, Wallner, Baddoo, Enlow, Balosovic...I like Chicago's chances of looking at that trade as lopsided in their favor, especially over the next 5 years or so.

How do you down play a world series and two division titles?


#34 spycake

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Posted 09 September 2019 - 02:26 PM

 

Don't you think ownership would have hamstrung him and prevented him from spending? Don't you think Scherzer/Cabrera type deals are a lot fewer and far between? He was not some trading savant.

He would have been allowed to spend the Zimmermann and Upton money that Al Avila spent, for sure. (And even the Pelfrey money. :) ) Remember, they were still a contending club, with 86 wins that first year after he left.

 

At that point, maybe they're still respectable enough in 2017 that they don't have to salary dump Verlander and JD Martinez -- maybe they're even able to QO and re-sign JD, who is aging well so far in Boston. The whole coaching focus could have turned out different too, instead of Gardy/Anderson.

 

Dombrowski may not be a trading savant, but he made a lot of good deals in Detroit, even beyond Cabrera and Scherzer: Guillen, Polanco, Fister, Sanchez, Price. Even got Fulmer and Boyd on his way out the door. His worst deal was sending away Suarez, although to be fair he kind of came out of nowhere for Cincinnati.

 

No guarantees, of course, but I think these circumstances mitigate some of his culpability for the Avila/Gardy/Anderson 2019 Tigers.

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#35 Vanimal46

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Posted 09 September 2019 - 02:28 PM

I think you may be downplaying the Sale cost. Moncada is an absolute stud. We can only hope Royce Lewis matches him. Kopech, even sidelined after TJ, has a higher FV with Fangraphs than our hotshot Graterol, and very few doubt his potential to become a Sale-like ace. And Basabe has a higher FV than two dozen Twins prospects we are excited about, including Rooker, Cellestino, Gordon, Raley, Wallner, Baddoo, Enlow, Balosovic...I like Chicago's chances of looking at that trade as lopsided in their favor, especially over the next 5 years or so.


I would trade Lewis and Graterol as well for a 28 year old stud pitcher like Sale. Perhaps you're too negative about Sale's one injury riddled year? Is there any indication he's not going to bounce back next year?

Edited by Vanimal46, 09 September 2019 - 02:34 PM.

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#36 Vanimal46

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Posted 09 September 2019 - 02:33 PM

I rely on farm system rankings. Prior to the 2019 Rule 4, Fangraphs ranked their farm system dead last. Yep. 30th best. Maybe others get credit for some of that. But I think the loss of Kopech and Moncada alone soured the pundits on their system.

He developed and graduated several top prospects during his tenure... And traded away the "cream of the crop" before they declined to nothing.

Moncada is a good to great player. Kopech has a chance to be good 1-2 years down the line.

Anderson Espinoza on Fangraphs was a 70 FV player (can't miss!) and was out of baseball 2 years after.

https://blogs.fangra...by-surplus-war/

You know this very well, Bird. Rankings are just that, rankings. I'll take a #30 farm system for a WS title over a top 5 farm system with decent results like our Twins.

Edited by Vanimal46, 09 September 2019 - 02:34 PM.

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#37 birdwatcher

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Posted 09 September 2019 - 02:40 PM

 

"We'll see" about the Verlander and Moncada trades? Verlander has been awesome for multiple years and the prospects marginal at best. Sale already won Boston a World Series, and the Red Sox have a 3B who is arguably better than Moncada with equal years of control remaining.

 

That's a pretty extreme standard of reserving judgement, no? Why not equally reserve judgement about the Falvey/Levine approach?

 

 

I am reserving judgment about both equally. I don't conflate liking their strategy with judging it a success. Similarly, while I have very little confidence in my own opinion on such things, I very much think Houston made a great trade for Verlander, and I very much think Boston mad a good trade for Sale. But I don't conflate that with the possibility that Chicago and Detroit might end up relly liking the trades too, especially Chicago. Kopech isn't some slouch. He was a top 5 prospect in all of baseball prior to the injury. The pros like Basabe a lot better than anyone the Twins are sending to the AFL not named Lewis, and Moncada is someone we'll grow to hate I think. The Verlander trade leaves less doubt, but pitcher Perez is everything we hope Balosovic is, Daz Cameron is a first rounder who had a breakout season, and Jake the catcher is in MLB, albeit looking pathetic in the process.

 

I want our FO to get to where Cleveland is. Enough prospect depth to feel like you can move Trevor Bauer, with guys like Bieber and Cleavenger stepping up, and guys like Civale, Plezac, and Plutko being serviceable in the back end. I think that's where we're headed in fits and starts. 


#38 birdwatcher

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Posted 09 September 2019 - 02:40 PM

 

How do you down play a world series and two division titles?

 

 

You don't.


#39 Mike Sixel

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Posted 09 September 2019 - 02:43 PM

 

I think you may be downplaying the Sale cost. Moncada is an absolute stud. We can only hope Royce Lewis matches him. Kopech, even sidelined after TJ, has a higher FV with Fangraphs than our hotshot Graterol, and very few doubt his potential to become a Sale-like ace. And Basabe has a higher FV than two dozen Twins prospects we are excited about, including Rooker, Cellestino, Gordon, Raley, Wallner, Baddoo, Enlow, Balosovic...I like Chicago's chances of looking at that trade as lopsided in their favor, especially over the next 5 years or so.

 

Sale is also a stud, and he helped them win a WS. If you won't trade studs for great players, you'll never trade for great players. Oh, and they still have a great 3B in Boston.

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It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#40 Mike Sixel

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Posted 09 September 2019 - 02:53 PM

 

I am reserving judgment about both equally. I don't conflate liking their strategy with judging it a success. Similarly, while I have very little confidence in my own opinion on such things, I very much think Houston made a great trade for Verlander, and I very much think Boston mad a good trade for Sale. But I don't conflate that with the possibility that Chicago and Detroit might end up relly liking the trades too, especially Chicago. Kopech isn't some slouch. He was a top 5 prospect in all of baseball prior to the injury. The pros like Basabe a lot better than anyone the Twins are sending to the AFL not named Lewis, and Moncada is someone we'll grow to hate I think. The Verlander trade leaves less doubt, but pitcher Perez is everything we hope Balosovic is, Daz Cameron is a first rounder who had a breakout season, and Jake the catcher is in MLB, albeit looking pathetic in the process.

 

I want our FO to get to where Cleveland is. Enough prospect depth to feel like you can move Trevor Bauer, with guys like Bieber and Cleavenger stepping up, and guys like Civale, Plezac, and Plutko being serviceable in the back end. I think that's where we're headed in fits and starts. 

 

Chicago also winning the trade does not mean Boston lost it. Take Sale away, and add another hitter to that team, do they win a WS? Probably not. Because they aren't winning this year mostly because the pitching isn't as good as the last three years.....

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It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins.