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Front Page: An Early Look at The Top Free Agent Starting Pitchers

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#21 Tomj14

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Posted 09 September 2019 - 10:41 AM

No how, now way would "I" pay Odorizzi 18 million a year to pitch an average of 5 innings a game.

that basically means you need 3 to 4 pitchers more pitchers every game he pitches. (and yes I get that is what happens with most pitchers, but not at 18 million a year)

 

I was completely against the starter strategy or stacker but I think that is the only solution for the Twins, basically nobody in the minors throws more than 5 innings so to expect them to throw more in the majors is a joke.

 

if they aren't going to sign Strasburg or Madison or pitchers that average at least 6 innings a game, then they should go out and get as many pitchers as possible that have options and just run them up and down all season and spend their money on out slugging the other teams.


#22 Shaitan

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Posted 09 September 2019 - 10:51 AM

Based on his performance in TC, I'm not sure about Hamels in the AL.

 

Ryu is a risk.

 

Think Wheeler would perform in the AL?

 

I'm open to the rest. Probably to any, honestly. I mean, as long as they're equal to Gibson the rotation isn't moving backward. I'd just prefer not to overpay if somebody like Hamels gets a big contract and doesn't live up to it.


#23 Mike Sixel

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Posted 09 September 2019 - 11:28 AM

This team has fifty or more million it can add to the budget, and still make a profit. Y'all have to stop listening to the owners about payroll.... Or not. Up to you. But they have plenty of budget.
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It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#24 In My La-Z-boy

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Posted 09 September 2019 - 12:28 PM

Guessing we have more courage to trade potential stars for pitching, than the courage to sign someone to a monster contract? I wouldn't be surprised if we make a big trade this winter. I would be shocked if we sign one of these high dollar players. Cole no way - he'll get $30M + per season. We need to move an outfielder of significant value, and a shortstop of significant value to receive back some starting pitching of significant value. We look loaded in the corner outfield and the middle infield heading into the offseason this year. 


#25 Darius

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Posted 09 September 2019 - 01:39 PM

Just my opinion, but I don’t think there is any chance the Twins go after a big name guy. It’s just not something they’ve ever done. I don’t care about regime change, I think it’s an ownership thing. So, I’m already crossing Cole, Strasburg, and Ryu off the list. Zero chance there.

Hamels, Bumgarner, or Wheeler fit right into the Twins wheelhouse, IMO. They can probably be had on cheaper short-term deals and have the name recognition to satisfy the PR side (plenty of fans will be excited about Hamels/MadBum). Just enough for them to point and say, “see, it’s the biggest free agent pitcher deal of all time....please believe that we’re all in (even though we’re not) and please buy some season tickets (before you realize that we’re not).”

Don’t get me wrong, they should absolutely be in on the biggest free agents out there. The payroll is almost nothing. The core is young and cheap. It’s one of those proverbial, “if they don’t do it now, they never will,” type of scenario. I’m leaning towards the “never will” coming to fruition and we’ll be left massively underwhelmed like we are every year.

Edited by Darius, 09 September 2019 - 01:59 PM.

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#26 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 09 September 2019 - 02:12 PM

Was it Falvey or Levine that said they woud sepnd when the window is open... well, it's open. I do hope they open up the check book and bring in one top tier guy at least. I guess I'm fine with trades too, but I'd rather them get at least one above average starter via FA. 

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#27 Darius

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Posted 09 September 2019 - 02:13 PM

Another point that always drives me crazy about these conversations:

People like to signal their enlightenment in the subject by talking about bad contracts and overpaying.

But, in reality, there is really no such thing as “overpaying.” There is only paying. The players don’t say, “I’ll play for 15 per year,” for the team to say, “we’ll give you 20.” The price is set by the market and is what it is.

Also, there is no salary cap involved. When fans say, “ah, I didn’t want Dallas Keuchel at the price anyway,” I’m generally confused. Are these fans of the Pohlads only, who’s World Series is the release of the annual financial? Why would anyone’s thought be, “whew, Carl Jr. was really close to only taking home 240 million this year instead of 260...that could’ve been a disaster,” when a big free agent signs elsewhere? That is the only implication there. It’s certsinly not taking away from another bevy of free agent signings. They don’t extend guys unless they’re dirt cheap (Mauer the one exception). We saw that play out this year with next to $0 on the books going forward.

Man, it’s not even that time of year and here I am sitting in my office raising my blood pressure over the off-season.

Edited by Darius, 09 September 2019 - 02:19 PM.

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#28 howeda7

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Posted 09 September 2019 - 02:30 PM

 

Twins best chance of obtaining better starting pitching is through trades.

 

Our owner/FO are not interested in "overpaying."

 

With market competition, the winner will ultimately "overpay" for these starters.

 

Ergo, we will not get any of these.

 

Which is fine, but, as I've stated numerous time, if we are not willing to"overpay" in money, for quality staring pitching, we need to be willing to "overpay" in prospects in a trade.

 

Quality starting pitching very very very rarely comes at a reasonable cost, and when it does, it does so largely through luck.

 

Let's not depend on luck shall we?

 

Time to loosen the vice like grip on our prospects. Then window is open now

I agree, though I would be open to trading one of Sano, Rosario or Buxton in that order. It might be time to sell high on one/both of Sano and Rosario while they still have team control. I don't see us retaining either past 2021.

Edited by howeda7, 09 September 2019 - 02:31 PM.


#29 ken

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Posted 09 September 2019 - 06:15 PM

This team has fifty or more million it can add to the budget, and still make a profit. Y'all have to stop listening to the owners about payroll.... Or not. Up to you. But they have plenty of budget.


https://www.forbes.c...s/#3c10bba43bae

Forbes had the Twins making $14 millions in profits last year which was one of the lowest in baseball. Revenue will be up and they can clear payroll to sign a big name pitcher, but I don't think they are as profitable as people like to believe.
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#30 Mike Sixel

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Posted 09 September 2019 - 06:41 PM

https://www.forbes.c...s/#3c10bba43bae

Forbes had the Twins making $14 millions in profits last year which was one of the lowest in baseball. Revenue will be up and they can clear payroll to sign a big name pitcher, but I don't think they are as profitable as people like to believe.


Forbes is an estimate. Also, they can just sell it if they ever need money.......

They clear tens of millions off the books this year. Pineda. Odorrizi. Reed. Hughes. Gibson. Cron. Castro. Schoop. Perez. That's off the top of my head.

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#31 DocBauer

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Posted 09 September 2019 - 08:25 PM

Concentrating on what I believe will happen and what I believe is true concerning the FO, including my opinion on how they look at things. I am simply not going to get in to an ownership debate.

A couple quick points that I think are relevant:

1] The new regime HAS made FA a priority when they felt it was right to do so. A year ago it didn't work, at all. This year, it did, and in a pretty big way. (This excludes Castro and Pineda, to a degree, as they were previous year moves). Despite carrying opinions, they were seriously in on Darvish until the extra year came in to play. They haven't done anything to "break the bank", but they also haven't been shy about playing in the FA pool. However...

2] They have also made it clear they are looking for sustainability for the franchise. This includes everything from analytics, to coaching changes, to player acquisition, to the draft and milb development, and INCLUDES FA to augment the roster.

Regarding the listed FA, I just feel Cole will be one of those guys heavy hitters look at, and simply outbid the Twins. We can talk about money off the books and total payroll, but I am speculating someone doing 5-6yrs at more than $20M per because they feel they can absorb any future financial "loss". Just too rich for the Twins.

Hamels has had a nice career, but is 35. Ryu could be interesting, but is 32, and recent history though limited, has seemingly shown the Asian ballplayers just aren't very interested.

Wheeler is a pretty solid option, only 29yo, and has really only had 1 bad year. He's usually good for 180IP, but his ERA is a little high this season. I'm always a little Leary of NL pitchers with higher ERA as I expect it to go up in the AL. Is this season just an aberration? He has 3 out of 5 seasons with a low 3 ERA. I'm interested!

Assuming Cole is off the table, the guy I'm interested in the most, I think, is Bumgarner. And not just because he is LH and has WS HERO tattooed on his resume. I didn't like him as an potentially expensive rental player. And his ERA is a little in 2019, but he's still taking his turn daily, still averaging almost a K per IP, and is an experienced competitor. (Some might argue he is too much of a competitor at times). This might be the perfect time in his career for a change of scenery, and to work with someone like Johnson, on a mostly young and dynamic team.

I am 50/50 the Twins will make a FA signing of someone like Wheeler or Bumgarner. Watching how they work, I slightly lean to them making a trade for an under 30 or 30ish SP with a couple years of control. No, I don't have a name to throw out there at this time. My thoughts and reflection tell me they would do all they can to keep their top 3-4 prospects in house, but open up the rest of the system for a 3-5 player deal to bring in a guy who is good, and they think is a tweak or two away from being great.

As to what is "on hand":

I still hesitate to say they will offer Odorizzi a QO. I like him. I'd like him back. He fits in as a talented veteran SP who is, generally, lights out for 5+ IP as a #3. Unless the market suddenly explodes again, he's worth some sort of 2, 2 + 1, maybe even a 3yr deal for anywhere between $12-15M per.

Considering his recent suspension, and previous injury history, weighted against previous production when healthy, and what he has done this season, Pineda isn't far behind. But new events and past history should have available for a little less than Odorizzi.

Gibson is a wild card. And I feel sorry for the guy. I'm not sure any recent Twin has had more differing opinion and sometimes vitriol sent his way. Forgetting his first call up...coming off TJ surgery, probably tiring and being a rookie...his first two seasons were very solid! Then he, and THE ENTIRE TEAM imploded in 2016. But it seems like some want to focus all the disappointment and blame on him for that season. The first half of his 2017 season was also bad but then suddenly, demotion, tweaks, a different mind-set he was a new man for the rest of the season and for 2018. And then he battles a bad illness loses tons of weight and strength, but battles back to pitch pretty well until this latest illness.

Gibson is a huge wild card, but probably had cheaply even if be finishes the hear decently.

Then there is Perez. Yet another wild card. I was completely against the move. Then he got off to that fantastic start. When he struggled, I even found myself actually defending him because I still velocity, SO, and 1-2-3 IP mixed in with bad stuff. And 3 of his last 4 starts have been pretty nice. His first year with the Twins, first year with Johnson, first year learning his new cutter, how he finishes 2019 will determine whether his next year is picked up. Someone stated he would be far too expensive for a 5th SP. But is he really that costly? And considering his start, and recent trajectory upward again, if he finishes solid, wouldn't he be smart to bring back?

2020 ROTATION, IMO:

Berrios
FA/Trade
Odorizzi
Pineda or Gibson
Perez

Waiting in the wings and challenging:

Graterol
Thorpe
Smeltzer
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#32 Doctor Wu

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Posted 10 September 2019 - 06:45 AM

 

Are Phil Hughes, Ricky Nolasco and Ervin Santana free agents?

We could also pick up Kevin Slowey and Phil Humber on the cheap.

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#33 Doctor Wu

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Posted 10 September 2019 - 06:47 AM

But in all seriousness, I'd be shocked if the Twins forked out money for any of the free agent pitchers you listed. I think we absolutely need a top flight arm in the rotation, but I don't see it happening via free agency this coming season.


#34 terrydactyls1947

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Posted 10 September 2019 - 09:03 AM

 

This team has fifty or more million it can add to the budget, and still make a profit. Y'all have to stop listening to the owners about payroll.... Or not. Up to you. But they have plenty of budget.

Good to know that we have a Twins' accountant on board to clarify what the "break even" point is for making a profit.

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#35 Mike Sixel

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Posted 10 September 2019 - 09:17 AM

Good to know that we have a Twins' accountant on board to clarify what the "break even" point is for making a profit.


They made money last year, revenue is up, and more than fifty million is coming off the books. Those are all publicly available facts. Do you have any evidence otherwise?
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It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#36 howieramone2

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Posted 10 September 2019 - 11:29 AM

 

Just my opinion, but I don’t think there is any chance the Twins go after a big name guy. It’s just not something they’ve ever done. I don’t care about regime change, I think it’s an ownership thing. So, I’m already crossing Cole, Strasburg, and Ryu off the list. Zero chance there.

Hamels, Bumgarner, or Wheeler fit right into the Twins wheelhouse, IMO. They can probably be had on cheaper short-term deals and have the name recognition to satisfy the PR side (plenty of fans will be excited about Hamels/MadBum). Just enough for them to point and say, “see, it’s the biggest free agent pitcher deal of all time....please believe that we’re all in (even though we’re not) and please buy some season tickets (before you realize that we’re not).”

Don’t get me wrong, they should absolutely be in on the biggest free agents out there. The payroll is almost nothing. The core is young and cheap. It’s one of those proverbial, “if they don’t do it now, they never will,” type of scenario. I’m leaning towards the “never will” coming to fruition and we’ll be left massively underwhelmed like we are every year.

You still disappointed we came in 2nd on Darvish?


#37 Mike Sixel

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Posted 10 September 2019 - 11:33 AM

You still disappointed we came in 2nd on Darvish?



Where do you expect to get three good pitchers next year, if you don't sign good ones? Also, Yu has been good the second half this year, isn't on the IL, and isn't suspended. He's also under contract past this year, so one spot would be filed for next year....
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It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#38 howieramone2

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Posted 10 September 2019 - 11:36 AM

 

 

They made money last year, revenue is up, and more than fifty million is coming off the books. Those are all publicly available facts. Do you have any evidence otherwise?

You haven't convinced me. I recall you inferred the Pohlads should spent like drunken sailors because their money was all inherited.


#39 howieramone2

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Posted 10 September 2019 - 11:40 AM

 

 

Where do you expect to get three good pitchers next year, if you don't sign good ones? Also, Yu has been good the second half this year, isn't on the IL, and isn't suspended. He's also under contract past this year, so one spot would be filed for next year....

King Theo has done everything except hang a for sale sign around his neck.


#40 USAFChief

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Posted 10 September 2019 - 11:52 AM

 

King Theo has done everything except hang a for sale sign around his neck.

Really?

 

Darvish has given the Cubs 157 innings of 108 ERA+ pitching, with a 1.13 WHIP and almost 11 K/9. 3.5 K/W. 2.69 ERA in the second half.

 

I highly doubt the Cubs are looking to trade Darvish, but if they are, I hope Falvine are all over it. He'd be the Twins best or second best starter, now and probably next year.

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Cutting my carbs...with a pizza slicer.




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