Posted 09 September 2019 - 08:25 PM
Concentrating on what I believe will happen and what I believe is true concerning the FO, including my opinion on how they look at things. I am simply not going to get in to an ownership debate.
A couple quick points that I think are relevant:
1] The new regime HAS made FA a priority when they felt it was right to do so. A year ago it didn't work, at all. This year, it did, and in a pretty big way. (This excludes Castro and Pineda, to a degree, as they were previous year moves). Despite carrying opinions, they were seriously in on Darvish until the extra year came in to play. They haven't done anything to "break the bank", but they also haven't been shy about playing in the FA pool. However...
2] They have also made it clear they are looking for sustainability for the franchise. This includes everything from analytics, to coaching changes, to player acquisition, to the draft and milb development, and INCLUDES FA to augment the roster.
Regarding the listed FA, I just feel Cole will be one of those guys heavy hitters look at, and simply outbid the Twins. We can talk about money off the books and total payroll, but I am speculating someone doing 5-6yrs at more than $20M per because they feel they can absorb any future financial "loss". Just too rich for the Twins.
Hamels has had a nice career, but is 35. Ryu could be interesting, but is 32, and recent history though limited, has seemingly shown the Asian ballplayers just aren't very interested.
Wheeler is a pretty solid option, only 29yo, and has really only had 1 bad year. He's usually good for 180IP, but his ERA is a little high this season. I'm always a little Leary of NL pitchers with higher ERA as I expect it to go up in the AL. Is this season just an aberration? He has 3 out of 5 seasons with a low 3 ERA. I'm interested!
Assuming Cole is off the table, the guy I'm interested in the most, I think, is Bumgarner. And not just because he is LH and has WS HERO tattooed on his resume. I didn't like him as an potentially expensive rental player. And his ERA is a little in 2019, but he's still taking his turn daily, still averaging almost a K per IP, and is an experienced competitor. (Some might argue he is too much of a competitor at times). This might be the perfect time in his career for a change of scenery, and to work with someone like Johnson, on a mostly young and dynamic team.
I am 50/50 the Twins will make a FA signing of someone like Wheeler or Bumgarner. Watching how they work, I slightly lean to them making a trade for an under 30 or 30ish SP with a couple years of control. No, I don't have a name to throw out there at this time. My thoughts and reflection tell me they would do all they can to keep their top 3-4 prospects in house, but open up the rest of the system for a 3-5 player deal to bring in a guy who is good, and they think is a tweak or two away from being great.
As to what is "on hand":
I still hesitate to say they will offer Odorizzi a QO. I like him. I'd like him back. He fits in as a talented veteran SP who is, generally, lights out for 5+ IP as a #3. Unless the market suddenly explodes again, he's worth some sort of 2, 2 + 1, maybe even a 3yr deal for anywhere between $12-15M per.
Considering his recent suspension, and previous injury history, weighted against previous production when healthy, and what he has done this season, Pineda isn't far behind. But new events and past history should have available for a little less than Odorizzi.
Gibson is a wild card. And I feel sorry for the guy. I'm not sure any recent Twin has had more differing opinion and sometimes vitriol sent his way. Forgetting his first call up...coming off TJ surgery, probably tiring and being a rookie...his first two seasons were very solid! Then he, and THE ENTIRE TEAM imploded in 2016. But it seems like some want to focus all the disappointment and blame on him for that season. The first half of his 2017 season was also bad but then suddenly, demotion, tweaks, a different mind-set he was a new man for the rest of the season and for 2018. And then he battles a bad illness loses tons of weight and strength, but battles back to pitch pretty well until this latest illness.
Gibson is a huge wild card, but probably had cheaply even if be finishes the hear decently.
Then there is Perez. Yet another wild card. I was completely against the move. Then he got off to that fantastic start. When he struggled, I even found myself actually defending him because I still velocity, SO, and 1-2-3 IP mixed in with bad stuff. And 3 of his last 4 starts have been pretty nice. His first year with the Twins, first year with Johnson, first year learning his new cutter, how he finishes 2019 will determine whether his next year is picked up. Someone stated he would be far too expensive for a 5th SP. But is he really that costly? And considering his start, and recent trajectory upward again, if he finishes solid, wouldn't he be smart to bring back?
2020 ROTATION, IMO:
Pineda or Gibson
Waiting in the wings and challenging:
KGB and joemama like this
"Nice catch Hayes...don't ever f*****g do it again."