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#21 Nick Nelson

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Posted 27 August 2019 - 08:51 AM

 

Romero won't be out of options next spring -- per Jeremy Nygaard, Romero will qualify for a 4th option year:

http://twinsdaily.co...th-option-r7741
 

This is excellent news, thanks for adding. Twins still face a conundrum with Romero going forward but at least the urgency is diminished somewhat. 

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#22 Mike Sixel

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Posted 27 August 2019 - 09:10 AM

Roster resource on fangraphs has all the data you need on options....

As for Romero.... Exhibit A for trading prospects sometimes.... His lack of helping the team this year is definitely part of the bullpen problem. I got no answers for what to do, though

Edited by Mike Sixel, 27 August 2019 - 09:35 AM.

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#23 spycake

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Posted 27 August 2019 - 09:53 AM

Roster resource on fangraphs has all the data you need on options....


That is a great resource, although 4th option years are a tricky calculation, and they don't seem to be noted there (at least not until they are awarded/used, perhaps?).

https://www.fangraph...th-charts/twins
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#24 Only Here in Negative

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Posted 27 August 2019 - 01:09 PM

 

Typical route for young pitchers is to start in the bullpen, get MLB experience, earn your stripes, build your repertoire, then step in to starting. That's how the Cardinals do it, that's how Santana did it with the Twins.

 

Believing that, after a big step back as a prospect, somehow, Romero will pull a Rumplestiltskin and turn himself from straw into gold, man, that's mistaking a fairy tale for real life.

 

As a reliever in 2000, Santana put up a 5.34 ERA and was pretty terrible. Granted that was as a Rule 5 guy but he wasn't much better the next year. It was year 3 he started showing that promise.

 

The issue is that the Twins may not have the luxury to carry Romero if it takes that long. Though with a 26 man roster next year, maybe that changes? Would hate to give up on his arm.


#25 goulik

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Posted 27 August 2019 - 01:28 PM

Stretch Romero out for the Arizona Fall League and send him there as a starter. Try him again as a starter in Spring Training and make adjustments as the Spring proceeds. I would like to see him get another chance to start but I also hoped May would get another chance. Moving starters to the bullpen too quickly has not proven consistently successful. This also gives me hesitation about Graterol...

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#26 Parker Hageman

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Posted 27 August 2019 - 01:31 PM

One thing I wanted to point out about Romero is that since his lower back injury, he has been working on shortening his arm action:

 

 

It could lead to more velocity and better command but so far in August, he's walked 12 batters in 12.1 innings pitched. That may be a byproduct of the adjustment. 

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#27 FlauerPauer

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Posted 27 August 2019 - 01:49 PM

 The Twins messed with him this offseason. I bet he was preparing to be a starter and then he's told to prepare as a reliever. I think he still has a chance. Can't throw 96-97 heat away for nothing.


#28 SpicyGarvSauce

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Posted 27 August 2019 - 02:28 PM

Over the last two months, he has maintained the K numbers...it is just the hits & walks that are an issue, and obviously that won't play well as you advance levels.


#29 Thegrin

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Posted 27 August 2019 - 03:39 PM

I want to see Romero PITCH.and be successful pitching.Then we can figure out if he should be a starter or relever.Just throw the ball over the dang plate and watch the batters not hit him successfully.No trickery.No subterfuge. Throw hisbest pitches where the catcher tells him to and see what results. :)

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#30 by jiminy

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Posted 27 August 2019 - 04:03 PM

 

Imagine three years ago what the Twins could have gotten for a Romero, Gonzo, Jay and Stewart package.

Hence why I am almost always for trading prospects for proven players.

 

At this point, I find it hard for more than one minor league stater to be given a chance to start at the beginning of next year, no way they take a playoff team this year and try to run out two or three rookie starters and if they do it seems like a shuttle for one spot.

Which mean Gonzo probably is done as a twin and Romero better figure out how to pitch out of the pen.

 

Or we could have landed some washed up, proven veteran who is off the team by now for Kepler, Polanco, Garver, and Rosario. Or would you rather we had traded Berrios and Buxton? Where would we be then?

 

The ONLY hope for this team to compete for championships is for several prospects to strike gold. We will never, ever pay for a star at every position like the Yankees and Dodgers can. 

 

I was against trading Graterol, Balazovic, Duran and Alcala for some slightly above average, soon to be expensive starter and closer at the deadline because while that MIGHT have helped us in the playoffs this year, those guys are our ONLY chance at having a playoff quality rotation in three years.We'd never buy one ace let alone threeon the open market, and if even we did, we couldn't afford to keep all our young hitters. 

 

We are about to have a starting pitching crisis as early as next year. We have one young, cost-controlled, playoff quality starter. We need a bunch of young pitchers to pan out, for cheap, and for the long term, or we will soon be watching our historically great lineup stroll away for greener pastures.

 

So sure, if you knew in advance Gonsalves, Romero, Stewart, and Jay would be the ones who wouldn't pan out, and traded them, while savvily holding on to Berrios, Rogers, Kepler, Buxton, Rosario, Polanco, Garver, then you'd have outsmarted the world. But generally the guys you want to keep are also the guys other teams want. I don't remember anyone beating down the door for Gonsalves. There were always worries his stuff wouldn't play above AAA.Same with Stewart.Jay was always a questionable pick who failed first as a starter and then again as a reliever. When was he worth an ace?Stewart was a high school pitcher who flopped. 

 

There was one year where Romero was a hot commodity.He could have landed something.So could Berrios, though.Should we have traded him while his value was high, too?  

 

Trading Romero while his value was high looks great now that he can't even get AAA players out.But he never was a sure thing. His control always was, and still remains, questionable. He never had the years of sustained success in the minors that Berrios had. I think he was a bit overhyped because we were desperate. Still, he was ranked very highly for a brief period, and could have netted something. But not an ace.

 

Another interesting thought experiment would involve trading Buxton and Sano when they were both top five prospects in the entire league. That's about the only way we could have gotten a long-term, cost-controlled ace.In retrospect, that looks pretty good.They are both long-term injury risks, and will both cost a truckload of money to keep long-term.They may yet be MVPs but we'd have to pay them for it. And Buxton seems dead set on smashing himself into things, while Sano seems destined to tear a hammy or hurt his back picking up his glove.Even after trading them (at peak value) you'd still have most of the lineup that is tearing up the league today, and could afford to keep them around a while--nd the money it will cost to sign those two long-term could go to extending the ace we traded them for.

 

Wow, I guess I've circled back to your point after all!Maybe trading a few guys at peak value is the way to go. 

 

But I still don't think the four guys you mentioned would have landed the big fish you wanted. None of them ever had much trade value except Romero, and that was just for one year.He came out of nowhere and quickly flamed out.He was never going to land an ace all by himself; the odds were better of him becoming one than netting more than a reliable receiver or middle of the road starter. And honestly, high velocity hurlers with poor control are a dime a dozen. I'd love for him to live up to the hype and lead us to a title, but I'm not holding my breath.

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#31 bighat

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Posted 27 August 2019 - 04:13 PM

 

You nicely articulated the frustration of Romero.

 

I've always gone the old school route of not giving up on a potential #3 starter or higher (sending to the bullpen) until you are sure it won't work out.

 

I kind of feel that way also. I've always viewed bullpen guys as "failed starters" - even when I know that technically, that's not the truth anymore.

 

But in May of 2018 Romero really put up some numbers - as a starter - that for me, are still hard to ignore.

 

vs. Toronto: 5.2 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 5K

@ STL: 6 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 9K

@LAA: 5 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 6K

@SEA: 7 IP, 5H, 2ER, 7K

 

He had one disastrous outing (@KC) but aside from that, none of his "clunkers" looked especially terrible - or any worse than, say, a typical Martin Perez or Kyle Gibson outing.

 

The Twins seemed, for some reason, to completely disregard a good portion of his track record as a starter because they WANTED him to be a good bullpen arm. Now here we are, looking at an empty rotation in 2020 and you have to wonder why they were so quick to give up on a guy who not only has great potential, but has proven at the big league level that he can perform as an SP.

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#32 Vanimal46

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Posted 27 August 2019 - 04:20 PM

I hope they stretch him out to start again. I hated that he was moved to the pen in the first place.
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#33 Thrylos

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Posted 27 August 2019 - 06:35 PM

.417 BABIP in the majors, .329 in the minors this season has some to do with it, plus his injury.Small print, but he has a career best in K/9 this season in AAA.I'd give him a Mulligan this season and see if he can crack the Twins' rotation next ST.

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#34 yarnivek1972

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Posted 27 August 2019 - 06:54 PM

I kind of feel that way also. I've always viewed bullpen guys as "failed starters" - even when I know that technically, that's not the truth anymore.

But in May of 2018 Romero really put up some numbers - as a starter - that for me, are still hard to ignore.

vs. Toronto: 5.2 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 5K
@ STL: 6 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 9K
@LAA: 5 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 6K
@SEA: 7 IP, 5H, 2ER, 7K

He had one disastrous outing (@KC) but aside from that, none of his "clunkers" looked especially terrible - or any worse than, say, a typical Martin Perez or Kyle Gibson outing.

The Twins seemed, for some reason, to completely disregard a good portion of his track record as a starter because they WANTED him to be a good bullpen arm. Now here we are, looking at an empty rotation in 2020 and you have to wonder why they were so quick to give up on a guy who not only has great potential, but has proven at the big league level that he can perform as an SP.


Adalberto Mejia still has better than league average numbers as a starting pitcher at the MLB level. He can’t crack a roster either. If a guy can’t get outs as a reliever, the chances of him doing so as a starter aren’t that good IMO. Romero is allowing about league average hit rate, considerably worse walk rate and slightly better than average K rate. His ERA is better than league average but his RA/G is not. The walk rate is what will hurt him the most at the MLB level. Good MLB hitters won’t swing at many pitches out of the zone.
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#35 spycake

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Posted 27 August 2019 - 07:11 PM

.417 BABIP in the majors, .329 in the minors this season has some to do with it, plus his injury. Small print, but he has a career best in K/9 this season in AAA. I'd give him a Mulligan this season and see if he can crack the Twins' rotation next ST.


I don't think Romero's problems this season are due to bad BABIP luck. His MLB FIP is still 6.71, with 6 BB+HBP and 3 WP in 8 IP. And his .329 AAA BABIP is within a normal range -- he had the same mark in 2017 at AA when he was generating tons of hype as a starting pitcher. (And his AAA FIP is worse than his ERA this year.)

On K/9, one would expect it to improve a bit upon moving to the bullpen, so that's not all that impressive of an achievement. Especially since it appears that the 2019 International League has the highest *league* K/9 of any league he pitched in -- ever pitcher is probably getting a boost in that department -- and Romero's K% is still not a career high (his K/9 is inflated by the extra hits and walks he has allowed this year, by comparison to K%).

Not to say he is hopeless or anything, but there isn't really a way to spin 2019 as anything other than a struggle for him.
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#36 Thrylos

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Posted 27 August 2019 - 07:33 PM

 

 

 

Not to say he is hopeless or anything, but there isn't really a way to spin 2019 as anything other than a struggle for him.

 

Quick:Who would you rather give a chance in 2020?Or even in September of 2019?Romero or Hildenberger? Same deal.Same struggles.Different potential ;)

 

 

Edited by Thrylos, 27 August 2019 - 07:35 PM.

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#37 DocBauer

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Posted 27 August 2019 - 08:15 PM

First of all, I still believe in Romero's arm and potential. At the beginning of 2018 he was not only a highly regarded prospect, but one of the Twins top prospects. He absolutely flashed as a SP in 2018 but then struggled some. The biggest issue, IMO, was not affording him more opportunity in the lost season of 2018.

But, that's over and done.

Considering need, roster crunch, lack of options, I believe the Twins will make an off season trade for a quality SP with control to compete with Berrios to hold a spot near the top of the rotation. Right now, this moment, I can't tell you who that guy is. The Twins have so much depth of milb talent, I believe they could do so without moving Lewis, Kirilloff or Graterol. They have several top 4-20-30 candidates that include INF, C, OF,and SP options for a rebuilding team. Said team would, IMO, fully embrace Romero as a 5th player, without options, that could comfortably roster him and work with him.

Such a trade would hurt, but not deplete the system, and potentially reward both teams. I've always said, if it hurts, then it's a fair value to both teams.
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#38 howieramone2

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Posted 28 August 2019 - 10:53 AM

 

Can we EVER trade a player, either a prospect or a rental, at their peak value? Another blue chipper with almost no value. With no options, he can't even be shuttled. If he couldn't be shuttled this year, there's no reason to think he can stick next season without clogging the shuttle. Kohl Stewart is more valuable. He's never thrown as hard as advertised. His k/9 looks ok because his whip is pedestrian. His K% never matched the hype. He's very hittable and doesn't miss enough bats. His debut was amazing. Don't know what's happened to his control since.

Pressly, Diaz, and Davis.


#39 Jham

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Posted 28 August 2019 - 11:41 AM

Pressly, Diaz, and Davis.


Pressley feels like a troll.. but he was neither a prospect or a rental and certainly not at peak value. His peripherals screamed closer and we traded him as an underperforming overused set up guy.

Diaz was a fringe prospect if a prospect at all. But possibly

Davis might be the most popular player in San Fran, and he's not even there yet. I'm guessing they could trade him this winter and get more than Dyson back. I don't think prospect lists can ignore his progress. In short, he's not at peak value.

Hu was traded at peak value I guess.

Anyway, I think to get something back, you have to be willing to give something. But if the guys we traded at "peak value" increase their value after we trade them, I think you're missing my point. Let's hold on to the Pressleys and maybe a Davis and trade the Arcias, Jays, Stewarts, and Gordons.

A reclamation project who can't be optioned has almost no value in MLB to anyone but a bottom barrel team who won't want to trade prospects.

#40 Riverbrian

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Posted 28 August 2019 - 01:02 PM

 

Can we EVER trade a player, either a prospect or a rental, at their peak value? 

 

You must also be hard on your stock broker.:)

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