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Front Page: Twins Game Recap (8/20): Cruz Leads Twins Offensive Explosion

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#41 Tomj14

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Posted 21 August 2019 - 06:29 AM

 

If he means he gets votes in the bottom half the of the top I could see that.


#42 Don Walcott

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Posted 21 August 2019 - 06:32 AM

I’m really proud that our boys scored so many runs in the bottom of the eighth without swinging at any 3-0 pitches.
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#43 twins1095

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Posted 21 August 2019 - 06:53 AM

I came up with a potential long-term feature to add to these things, and the only way to find out if it works was to just start doing them. Here's a pitching-focused review of tonight's game. Still very much working on both the idea and execution.


I like what you’re doing. I’m interested in thinking about different ways to track, chart, and think about relief pitchers.

Sam Dyson, Sergio Romo, and Trevor May all have an ERA of between 3.40-3.42, but have seemingly had very different seasons. That is, due to relievers only pitching a few innings a season, and a few bad outings really skewing aggregate numbers... ERA is probably not the best way to think about how successful a reliever is. There definitely is a leverage component you’d have to build out and I think you’ve started it, but I was thinking about trying to track relievers in 2 ways:

1) Create a blow-up metric. My first thought was any outing where a reliever gives up 2 or more runs is a “blow-up”. Blow-ups are really bad for relievers and will more often not lead directly or almost directly to a loss. I don’t think the numbers in a blow-up matter as much as HOW OFTEN a blow-up happens (this especially rings true for high-leverage relievers who normally pitch late in the game and with small leads).

A successful reliever will be one who blows up the most infrequently i.e. if Dyson blows up 15% of the time and Romo blows up 10% of the time that means Dyson will lose you a game 3 out of every 20 outings versus 2 for Romo (hypothetical).

From there, after isolating the blow-up sample I’d like to take a look at reliever ERA/WHIP/K/BB/etc numbers from their non-blow-up sample. Basically, who is the best outside of the odd outing where they blow-up?

This would show you the true talent of a reliever over the majority of their games. Relievers who’s majority of good or non-blow up games are a really high percentage with better ERA/WHIP/etc numbers would be considered the best.

My hypothesis is that you’d see that most relievers have pretty good numbers but the key would be how reliable are they to not blow up? I think you’d see a difference between elite relievers and the Trevor May’s of the world in terms of blow up percentage. Thus, a Trevor May is harder to trust and should be a 6th/7th inning guy versus an 8th/9th inning guy.

Might put something together with Twins relievers if I get some free time.
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#44 Jham

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Posted 21 August 2019 - 07:00 AM

I like what you’re doing. I’m interested in thinking about different ways to track, chart, and think about relief pitchers.

Sam Dyson, Sergio Romo, and Trevor May all have an ERA of between 3.40-3.42, but have seemingly had very different seasons. That is, due to relievers only pitching a few innings a season, and a few bad outings really skewing aggregate numbers... ERA is probably not the best way to think about how successful a reliever is. There definitely is a leverage component you’d have to build out and I think you’ve started it, but I was thinking about trying to track relievers in 2 ways:

1) Create a blow-up metric. My first thought was any outing where a reliever gives up 2 or more runs is a “blow-up”. Blow-ups are really bad for relievers and will more often not lead directly or almost directly to a loss. I don’t think the numbers in a blow-up matter as much as HOW OFTEN a blow-up happens (this especially rings true for high-leverage relievers who normally pitch late in the game and with small leads).

A successful reliever will be one who blows up the most infrequently i.e. if Dyson blows up 15% of the time and Romo blows up 10% of the time that means Dyson will lose you a game 3 out of every 20 outings versus 2 for Romo (hypothetical).

From there, after isolating the blow-up sample I’d like to take a look at reliever ERA/WHIP/K/BB/etc numbers from their non-blow-up sample. Basically, who is the best outside of the odd outing where they blow-up?

This would show you the true talent of a reliever over the majority of their games. Relievers who’s majority of good or non-blow up games are a really high percentage with better ERA/WHIP/etc numbers would be considered the best.

My hypothesis is that you’d see that most relievers have pretty good numbers but the key would be how reliable are they to not blow up? I think you’d see a difference between elite relievers and the Trevor May’s of the world in terms of blow up percentage. Thus, a Trevor May is harder to trust and should be a 6th/7th inning guy versus an 8th/9th inning guy.

Might put something together with Twins relievers if I get some free time.


I would guess that the pitchers worth lower whip/bb/oslg higher ks, would also blow up less and not have to deal with inherited runners coming into middle off innings, etc. I guess you don't know unless you calculate it out.
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#45 alarp33

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Posted 21 August 2019 - 07:09 AM

 

While I appreciate the very well thought out and intelligent post, your point basically boils down to:

Nelson Cruz has a lower wRC+ than Mike Trout, except Trout also plays one of the most important positions on the diamond very well.

 

Don't forget, Trout has also provided that wRC+ in 31 more games played... 

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#46 AceWrigley

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Posted 21 August 2019 - 07:11 AM

 

This post piqued my interest and I went searching. The Bash Brothers never clubbed 40 home runs in any one year that I could find. The Colorado Rockies in 1997 had three players reach 40 home runs in one season (the only time it's been done??).

 

Walker 49 (130 RBIs)

Galarraga 41 (140 RBIs)

Castilla 40 (113 RBIs)

 

Interestingly, that team also included Dante Bichette who hit only 26 home runs but drove in 118 runs as well as Ellis Burks who clubbed 32 (82 RBIs).

 

The other weird discovery was that in 1920 Babe Ruth hit 54 home runs, but his total was more than the total home runs for every other team in the league (maybe I rediscovered this...I think I had read it once before).

The 1973 Braves had Hank Aaron, Darrell Evans and Davey Johnson at 40, 41, and 43 homers respectfully. They also finished 5th at 76-85. Homers good, pitching not so much.

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#47 Dantes929

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Posted 21 August 2019 - 07:17 AM

 

You may be right about Morneau, but I'll disagree about Mauer. He was the best baseball player in the world that year.

.321 avg.34 homers and 130 RBI. Morneau was the best player in the league that year.

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#48 Dantes929

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Posted 21 August 2019 - 07:19 AM

Making an argument for anyone but Trout is like giving MVP awards to anyone but Jordan in his prime.Was Malone best player or most valuable?No, regardless of which team he was on.  

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#49 Tom Froemming

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Posted 21 August 2019 - 07:22 AM

 

I like what you’re doing. I’m interested in thinking about different ways to track, chart, and think about relief pitchers.
 ...
1) Create a blow-up metric. 

Your post highlights some really fun possibilities I see in this project. Putting such a microscope on the pitching and tracking things day-to-day could sprout some really fun, different ways of looking at things.

 

I definitely agree with you that ERA isn't a very good metric to value relievers by. I think FIP/xFIP/SIERA do a much better job. Here's where Taylor Rogers ranks among relievers in all those metrics, for example:

 

ERA 22nd | FIP 12th | xFIP 14th | SIERA 12th

 

But, I also feel the same way as you about there being a problem with full-season stats for relief pitchers in general. I love WPA, but even that has it's blind spots. The other day I was trying to drum up a sort of game score metric that could be used for relievers, but couldn't come up with anything that was satisfying.

 

Worth mentioning: There already is a Shutdowns and Meltdowns metric that's based on WPA. You can read about it here and see how the Twins rank here (last two columns SD & MD). Even though that's some great stuff from FanGraphs, it would be nice if those were available as percentage of outings. 

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#50 goatsandstuff

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Posted 21 August 2019 - 07:34 AM

 

I came up with a potential long-term feature to add to these things, and the only way to find out if it works was to just start doing them. Here's a pitching-focused review of tonight's game. Still very much working on both the idea and execution.

I like the format, the stat stack is a really nice overview of how the pitchers look

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#51 KFEY93

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Posted 21 August 2019 - 08:00 AM

 

Oy. Mauer was close to the leader in WAR that season and probably got a bump because he's a catcher and catchers aren't supposed to do what he did that season. Joe was within a single win of being the league leader, while also catching most of his games (pretty hard to complain about a catcher worth eight wins taking the MVP award).

 

Meanwhile, Trout is on his merry way to a 10 win season (again) and we're talking about Cruz maybe crossing four wins.

 

Totally the same argument.

 

I do not understand why people refuse to accept that Mike Trout should win every MVP award until he stops being Mike Trout at the plate and on the field. He's literally the best baseball player that has ever stepped onto a diamond.

 

Appreciate greatness when you see it, folks. It doesn't come along that often.

To be honest? Kind of sick of hearing about him. Year after year. 


#52 PDX Twin

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Posted 21 August 2019 - 08:18 AM

Trout is a great player. But I'd still go with Willie Mays in his prime. Power and average to compare with Trout, but with more speed, defense, and throwing arm.

It's great to get out of the cellar ... as long as you bring something with you.


#53 USAFChief

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Posted 21 August 2019 - 08:31 AM

Conversations about "best baseball player of all time" begin and end with Babe Ruth.

And it's not even close.
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#54 Don Walcott

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Posted 21 August 2019 - 08:33 AM

 

Conversations about "best baseball player of all time" begin and end with Babe Ruth.

And it's not even close.

So is this the beginning or the end of the conversation?

 

Edit: Obvious Chief setup.

Edited by Don Walcott, 21 August 2019 - 08:33 AM.

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#55 big dog

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Posted 21 August 2019 - 08:37 AM

Chief, as you are the only one on the forum likely to have watched him play I will concede.
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#56 USAFChief

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Posted 21 August 2019 - 08:40 AM

So is this the beginning or the end of the conversation?

Edit: Obvious Chief setup.

no.

Hat tip.
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#57 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 21 August 2019 - 08:47 AM

 

Conversations about "best baseball player of all time" begin and end with Babe Ruth.

And it's not even close.

It depends how you view the question: contextual to the player's time or pure athleticism.

 

Contextual to his time? Ruth, and it's not close.

 

Best overall athlete? Trout, and it's not close.

 

There is no wrong answer, only how you view the question.

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#58 Aerodeliria

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Posted 21 August 2019 - 08:50 AM

The 1973 Braves had Hank Aaron, Darrell Evans and Davey Johnson at 40, 41, and 43 homers respectfully. They also finished 5th at 76-85. Homers good, pitching not so much.


Oddly, I remember that team well because that is the year I asked for the APBA Baseball game for Christmas and received it (I'm curious if anyone remembers that game.) They could hit home runs right and left, but they hit a ton of solo shots because no one was on base (at least in my game). They also couldn't pitch and were the slowest team on the planet, except for one their outfielders who was super fast but not a very good hitter (the name slips my mind,)

#59 SwainZag

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Posted 21 August 2019 - 08:56 AM

 

 

Fish man is not even good at baseball, but simply unreal.  


#60 SwainZag

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Posted 21 August 2019 - 09:01 AM

 

Polanco quietly coming out of his....well, I won't call it a "slump", but you know what I mean. Smalley remarked that he had shortened up his swing a bit over the past week. Looks very quick.

 

We are pretty spoiled seeing games like this frequently over the season. Just a drubbing, once again in double-digits. Absolutely need to take this series with a win today (Wednesday) and it was nice to see the bats warm up. Giolito has had a good year, should be an interesting game.

 

Jorge is so HUGE for this team when he is hitting.He went into a prolonged slump for most of the summer and in the last 11 games or so it finally, hopefully, looks like he has snapped out of it and is hitting like he was at the beginning of the season.More impressively, he hi that HR as a right handed hitter last night.

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