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The Rays got their man at the deadline. Arggggh!

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#1 jokin

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Posted 20 August 2019 - 10:42 AM

I've mentioned former Miami Marlin and now Tampa Bay Ray RP Nick Anderson as an obvious Twins' deadline target for the pen previously. They obviously should have known enough about his background, considering that he's originally from Brainerd, Mn and pitched well within the Twins' organization for the previous 4 years prior to 2019. Clearly, the homework on Anderson was already complete- besides his ties to the Twins, the FO obviously perused the entire Marlins' staff fairly thoroughly, before ultimately deciding on making a deal for Sergio Romo. The only question left on acquiring Anderson was the asking price.

 

Well, the deadline came and went, the Twins picked up Sam Dyson, and they obviously didn't do ANY homework on Dyson's physical situation.

 

The story gets worse for what the Twins missed. Is Anderson a soft tosser? That would be NO. He's averages 96.3 on his FB and also possesses a 83.5 mph devastating slider. Anderson pitched very well, but not lights out for Miami. The move to Tampa Bay thus far has been positively transformative for the 6'5" righty. How other-wordly, you might ask?

 

Since August 1, his numbers are the best for RPs in all of baseball. Better than Rogers, Chapman, Yates, Hendiriks, you name it.

In 8 August appearances:

 

W-L 2-0

Games 8

IP 8

ERA 0.00

FIP -1.28 (that's right, NEGATIVE)

K/9 20.25

K% 69.2%

BB/9 0.00

AVG .115

SLG .154

OPS .269

wOBA .114

IFFB% 33.3%

TBF 27

Hits 3

 

Undoubtedly, Anderson probably wasn't ready to be the closer or the set-up man on this team, he is not regularly called upon in high leverage situations, but consider this:

 

For the season, in low and medium leverage situations Anderson's K% is a combined 43% and K/9 is 15.75.

And even in high leverage situations, his K% is 35% and K/9 is 13.1.

 

> NOBODY on the Twins staff comes close to these numbers, even Rogers and Duffey.<

 

On the season, only 1 RP (Josh Hader) has a higher K% and K/9 than Anderson's 41% and 15.2. And he's accomplished this with very good control- his K-BB% of 33.5% ranks third behind only Hader and Yates.

 

Seems like he would have been the perfect fit for some of the 5th, 6th and 7th inning duty for the Twins.

 

How many games might he already have made the difference for the Twins in some of their recent August pitching disasters, and before that? Looks like he'll always be "The one that slipped through the cracks...."

Edited by jokin, 20 August 2019 - 11:10 AM.

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#2 Sconnie

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Posted 20 August 2019 - 11:04 AM

Good for Tampa in making a savvy move. Good for Nick Anderson in seemingly turning a corner. Hopefully he can continue to progress.
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#3 Jaykay

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Posted 20 August 2019 - 11:08 AM

 

Good for Tampa in making a savvy move. Good for Nick Anderson in seemingly turning a corner. Hopefully he can continue to progress.

 

I don't think it's possible to progress beyond what he's doing right now. 

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#4 Sconnie

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Posted 20 August 2019 - 11:13 AM

I don't think it's possible to progress beyond what he's doing right now.

it’s 8 games, lets see how he’s doing consistency wise in mid September

#5 Highabove

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Posted 20 August 2019 - 11:15 AM

It seems like the Front Office was more concern with keeping the likes of Oliver Drake and Matt Belisle on their pitching staff other then giving Nick Anderson a shot. He was having a nice season in Rochester but did not deserve a call up last year? With all the scouting talent in this Organization, how could they not no this guy was ready for a shot.

Edited by Highabove, 20 August 2019 - 11:17 AM.

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#6 jokin

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Posted 20 August 2019 - 11:32 AM

 

it’s 8 games, lets see how he’s doing consistency wise in mid September

 

How about the previous 45 games?

 

As I pointed out in the article, I examined his entire body of work.

By the measure of his entire season, Anderson would still be a major force in the Twins pen.

 

Yes, he did have a few bad outings, especially in May (partly attributed to an IFH% spike to 28.2%). But as I noted, his overall season K and control numbers stand out in a way that make him not only far superior to anyone in the Twins' pen, but also near or at the top in terms of K/control numbers among all relievers in baseball this season, not just with the Rays in August.

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#7 Dome Dogg

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Posted 20 August 2019 - 11:34 AM

This is what sometimes worries me about having a hyper-analytic front office. Every once in a while, I think you just need to trust your eyes. 

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#8 Vanimal46

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Posted 20 August 2019 - 11:41 AM

Every front office has misses... Add this to the list. Time will tell whether Anderson can sustain an MLB career.

There was a lot of teeth gnashing last year over losing Derek Rodriguez... This year was utterly forgettable for Rodriguez.
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#9 Riverbrian

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Posted 20 August 2019 - 01:05 PM

If anyone wonders why I'm insistent about giving playing time to as many players as possible. 

 

Nick Anderson is one of many exhibits. 

 

If anyone wonders why I don't have complete faith in the scouts, the front offices or Keith Law to be right all the time. 

 

Nick Anderson is one of many exhibits. 

 

Our scouts and our front office (Who I believe are talented) gave away a guy who is striking out over 2 batters an inning this year. Nick would have been a huge boost to this bullpen this year and we let him go. 

 

I don't blame anyone, mistakes like this happen all the time and they happen because the margins are thin and the job is hard. But... they let him go for nothing... It should tell everyone that complete trust in the process is misplaced. 

 

The only way to minimize these types of mistakes is too hand them the ball and let them show you. 

 

Putting Belisle on the roster instead of Anderson during a lost season was a critical mistake, it was someone making the determination that Belisle was better than Anderson and being wrong by 100 miles. 

 

The guy is striking out 2 batters an inning. I don't care if his ERA is 10.88 in 2020... He is striking out 2 batters an inning in 2019. He would be a huge addition to this bullpen right now. 

 

I've moved on... I think the front office has done a great job and I'll bet they will make mistakes like this again in the future.

 

Right now... I'll just settle for them realizing that they made a mistake here and will make mistakes like this in the future and this will hopefully stall any futures thoughts of "we know better". If they do that... they will make less mistakes like this in the future. You need scouts, you need the data but you need to recognize the imperfections of scouts and data and let the players prove everyone wrong if they are able. 

 

Letting Anderson walk was a bigger mistake than trading Pressly. 

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#10 mrtwinsfan

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Posted 20 August 2019 - 01:20 PM

https://www.mlb.com/...at-the-deadline

 

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There were 19 notable relievers traded in the days leading up to the July 31 Trade Deadline, with past and present All-Stars like Mark Melancon, Sergio Romo and Shane Greene among them. For the most part, it hasn't gone well. We took 18 of them and looked at their August stats, and so far, they've combined for a 5.35 ERA, an enormous jump from the 3.86 ERA they had through the end of July. Teams looking for relief generally haven't found it.

You'll notice we only included 18 of the 19, and the name we left out is one you likely aren't familiar with. You absolutely did not know Nick Anderson when the Twins signed him as an undrafted free agent in 2015, and you probably did not notice when they dealt him to Miami last November for a Minor League third baseman to avoid a 40-man roster crunch. (It's OK: Neither did we. Anderson didn't even rate a mention in the headline. The Minor League third baseman, Brian Schales, is hitting .189/.301/.378 in the

Edited by ashbury, 20 August 2019 - 01:37 PM.
Link to article added for copyright reasons

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#11 Vanimal46

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Posted 20 August 2019 - 01:55 PM

If anyone wonders why I'm insistent about giving playing time to as many players as possible.

Nick Anderson is one of many exhibits.

If anyone wonders why I don't have complete faith in the scouts, the front offices or Keith Law to be right all the time.

Nick Anderson is one of many exhibits.

Our scouts and our front office (Who I believe are talented) gave away a guy who is striking out over 2 batters an inning this year. Nick would have been a huge boost to this bullpen this year and we let him go.

I don't blame anyone, mistakes like this happen all the time and they happen because the margins are thin and the job is hard. But... they let him go for nothing... It should tell everyone that complete trust in the process is misplaced.

The only way to minimize these types of mistakes is too hand them the ball and let them show you.

Putting Belisle on the roster instead of Anderson during a lost season was a critical mistake, it was someone making the determination that Belisle was better than Anderson and being wrong by 100 miles.

The guy is striking out 2 batters an inning. I don't care if his ERA is 10.88 in 2020... He is striking out 2 batters an inning in 2019. He would be a huge addition to this bullpen right now.

I've moved on... I think the front office has done a great job and I'll bet they will make mistakes like this again in the future.

Right now... I'll just settle for them realizing that they made a mistake here and will make mistakes like this in the future and this will hopefully stall any futures thoughts of "we know better". If they do that... they will make less mistakes like this in the future. You need scouts, you need the data but you need to recognize the imperfections of scouts and data and let the players prove everyone wrong if they are able.

Letting Anderson walk was a bigger mistake than trading Pressly.


They've been pretty good discarding players without much of a sting afterwards. Nick Anderson is just one example out of dozens of players they let go. The others haven't made an impact at all at the MLB level. So with that being said, I agree. I think they're doing a good job trimming the fat each year.

Other than Nick Anderson this year, and Derek Rodriguez last year, are there other examples of players the Twins discarded and proved them wrong? Do we still wish JT Chargois is still in the organization? How about Nick Burdi? Or John Curtiss?

I still put the Pressly trade as #1, with a bullet, Falvine's biggest mistake.
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#12 Dman

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Posted 20 August 2019 - 01:56 PM

Given their track record I don't really trust this FO with pen management.It seems the pen is the one area they typically care the least about especially when it comes to protecting guys.At any rate they did have to make some tough decisions or risk losing guys for nothing.I guess they Figured with Romero and Meija likely pen arms and Moya and Magill who had held their own the year before likely to improve.They liked DeJong and Vasquez better than Anderson as they were younger.They also probably didn't see Hildenberger falling off a cliff either and they had Thorpe, Gonsalves and Littel waiting in the wings to help as well so I can see how they thought Anderson was likely expendable.  

 

I will give them a little bit of credit though as they actually worked out a trade with the Marlins so they knew Anderson had value they just thought the guys they were keeping likely had more value but it turns out things went pretty sideways as a lot of the guys they kept actually regressed significantly.That's teh way it goes sometimes.You make logical decisions or calculated risks and they backfire.

Edited by Dman, 20 August 2019 - 01:57 PM.

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#13 Danchat

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Posted 20 August 2019 - 02:25 PM

It seems like the Front Office was more concern with keeping the likes of Oliver Drake and Matt Belisle on their pitching staff other then giving Nick Anderson a shot. He was having a nice season in Rochester but did not deserve a call up last year? With all the scouting talent in this Organization, how could they not no this guy was ready for a shot.

It’s funny you mention Drake, he’s currently on the Rays bullpen alongside Anderson. He pitched very well for the Twins, which made it baffling why they cut him IMO.

The Belisle situation was a total joke, and Anderson was a legitimate option to be called up... thankfully we haven’t seen any moves like that one this season, I guess outside of a few days of Torres being on the roster.

Edited by Danchat, 20 August 2019 - 02:25 PM.

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#14 SpicyGarvSauce

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Posted 20 August 2019 - 03:50 PM

The fact that Matt Belisle was getting innings on a rebuilding team over the young guys (like Anderson) still pisses me off and why I cannot fully trust the current regime in the front office.

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#15 jokin

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Posted 20 August 2019 - 04:17 PM

 

 

 

Letting Anderson walk was a bigger mistake than trading Pressly. 

 

Uh, yeah. I definitely thought about proposing that possibility, but decided not to go there.

 

The only thing I could think of for why they let Anderson go was because he was an inherited guy, who couldn't possibly fit into their plans, because... maybe.... he "only"played for Mayville State in college and 3 Indy League teams before being signed by the previous Twins regime... and, despite his outstanding MiLB results, they KNEW better.

 

It's gonna stick in my craw for a long time, much like the head-scratching trade of Pressley a year ago.

 

The only way it's gonna hurt even more is if/when either Anderson or Pressly shut down the Twins in a Wild Card, ALDS, ALCS game come October.

 

Making 2 mistakes wasn't the end of the world in terms of their chances this fall, but critical mistakes like this require proper atonement- and that hasn't happened yet. The fact that the Marlins had declared open season on their roster and that the Twins obviously had a second chance at Anderson and whiffed again is cause for concern.

 

Without addressing this "blind spot" in their thinking,

1) replacing Pressley with similar quality in the offseason, and

2) when they've had opportunity to do mend an unforced error with a willing trade partner and failed to execute,

 

their otherwise decent master-recipe for success for 2019 still comes off as half-baked.

 

 

Edited by jokin, 20 August 2019 - 04:27 PM.

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#16 jokin

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Posted 20 August 2019 - 04:40 PM

 

...they had Thorpe, Gonsalves and Littel waiting in the wings to help as well so I can see how they thought Anderson was likely expendable.  

 

I will give them a little bit of credit though as they actually worked out a trade with the Marlins so they knew Anderson had value they just thought the guys they were keeping likely had more value but it turns out things went pretty sideways as a lot of the guys they kept actually regressed significantly.That's teh way it goes sometimes.You make logical decisions or calculated risks and they backfire.

 

The Twins had a chance to atone for their mistake, it wasn't logical to NOT make a deal with the Marlins to acquire Anderson, Romo and/or one or two of the Marlins young starters. As we know now, they were ALL on the trading block- and the Twins clearly were kicking the tires. (We knew it at the time, as well, the Marlins are chock-full with young pitchers and high-ceiling prospects on the way and NEEDED to deal the excess currently on their roster).

 

It looks like pulling the trigger on a more blockbuster deal- with the potential "backfire"- was just a bridge too far for FalVine to risk. By contrast, look at what Falvey's old team did on deadline day- the Indians had the guts and wherewithal to trade a young, potential Ace- to address a bigger essential need via a complicated, three-way trade. And in the process, we now have a legitimate race for the AL Central.

Edited by jokin, 20 August 2019 - 04:41 PM.

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#17 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 20 August 2019 - 04:50 PM

The problem with relievers is that they can do really well in SSS... I do think the FO missed this one, simply by letting him go... or perhaps that's what he needed to make an adjustment, who knows.

 

Personally, I tend to agree with Vanimal that trading Pressley was the worst mistake. I said it then that trading him was punting on 2019... and here we are needing him. 

 

That said, speaking of the Marlins, not acquiring Anderson is hardly the biggest mistake from that roster. That mistake goes not beating Arizona's offer for Zac Gallen. I didn't think the Marlins would be trading him, but they did... and not for much. That offer should have been beaten. 

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#18 spycake

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Posted 20 August 2019 - 05:31 PM

 

That said, speaking of the Marlins, not acquiring Anderson is hardly the biggest mistake from that roster. That mistake goes not beating Arizona's offer for Zac Gallen. I didn't think the Marlins would be trading him, but they did... and not for much. That offer should have been beaten. 

You may not think much of Jazz Chisholm, but he's the #30 prospect at Fangraphs right now with a 55 FV. Also #57 at MLB.com, and was #59 at BA / #69 at BP preseason.

 

For the Twins to beat that offer may have taken Lewis or Kirilloff.

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#19 Mike Sixel

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Posted 20 August 2019 - 06:16 PM

You may not think much of Jazz Chisholm, but he's the #30 prospect at Fangraphs right now with a 55 FV. Also #57 at MLB.com, and was #59 at BA / #69 at BP preseason.

For the Twins to beat that offer may have taken Lewis or Kirilloff.


So, Kirilloff for five years of a number three? If those numbers are correct, I do that every time given this roster. Every time. They have one starter under contract for next year. One.
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#20 Linus

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Posted 20 August 2019 - 06:31 PM

I think we can disabuse the notion that Falvey is some sort of pitching whisperer. The Twins pitching hasn’t been good since they got here and have made decisions that have actually made things worse