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Front Page: Twins Game Recap (8/19): Twins Unable to Mount Comeback, Drop Series Opener 6-4

kyle gibson jorge polanco nelson cruz luis arraez eddie rosario
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#21 bighat

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Posted 20 August 2019 - 07:15 AM

From the recap: "Arraez (3-for-5, 2B), Rosario (3-for-5), Polanco (2-for-5, 2B, HR), Cruz (2-for-5), Sano (2-for-5), Cave (2-for-4, 2B)"

 

By those stats alone, I'd have guessed the Twins would have won 11-6. Twins offense continues to put up ridiculous numbers - guess they just couldn't push the runs across the plate last night.

 

Gibson is nothing more than an innings-eater at this point. He's topped out as a Kevin Correia clone, and should be nothing more than a 4th starter on a rebuilding club at this point. I can see Gibson and Perez holding down the 4-5 spots in Detroit, Miami, or Baltimore next year. This starting rotation is just killing this team.


#22 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 20 August 2019 - 07:22 AM

From the recap: "Arraez (3-for-5, 2B), Rosario (3-for-5), Polanco (2-for-5, 2B, HR), Cruz (2-for-5), Sano (2-for-5), Cave (2-for-4, 2B)"

By those stats alone, I'd have guessed the Twins would have won 11-6. Twins offense continues to put up ridiculous numbers - guess they just couldn't push the runs across the plate last night.

Gibson is nothing more than an innings-eater at this point. He's topped out as a Kevin Correia clone, and should be nothing more than a 4th starter on a rebuilding club at this point. I can see Gibson and Perez holding down the 4-5 spots in Detroit, Miami, or Baltimore next year. This starting rotation is just killing this team.


Wouldn't an average pitcher, by definition, be a #3 on an average team?

Gibson is 13% better than an average pitcher, by ERA, since the beginning of last year.
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#23 Riverbrian

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Posted 20 August 2019 - 07:31 AM

Perhaps it should have been challenged, but I'm not sure I agree with your conclusion that it was a violation.

Below is the exact moment where the ball enters the catcher's glove (and presumably the catcher gains the full right to place his foot wherever he wants). As you can see, Sano's hand has not yet reached the foot, thus he hasn't been blocked by it yet.

ec550ecd-e83921a7-732e3242-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_4000K-.jpg


Thanks for the photo. In my opinion. Sano would have been safe if not blocked. That I’m convinced of.

If he can’t apply a tag in time. He certainly can’t move his foot in time to block the plate.

The only way he is able to block the plate is if it was pre-blocked prior to the ball arriving and that is against the rules.

The only question should be. Did he need to block the plate in order to catch the ball? I believe the answer to that is no. He had an unnecessary wide stance, which blocked the plate.

It was a great play by the Sox but the Posey rule is in the books and this appears to be the definition of what you can’t do.

In the end. Brand new game today.
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#24 alarp33

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Posted 20 August 2019 - 07:32 AM

 

Wouldn't an average pitcher, by definition, be a #3 on an average team?

Gibson is 13% better than an average pitcher, by ERA, since the beginning of last year.

 

At what point does last year become the outlier for Gibson? He had a career low BABIP and career high LOB%. 

 

Theres 28 AL pitchers with enough innings pitched to qualify, he's 20th in ERA this season 

Edited by alarp33, 20 August 2019 - 07:33 AM.

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#25 Dome Dogg

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Posted 20 August 2019 - 07:36 AM

 

I hope Falvey & Levine are scouting starting pitchers to acquire this coming off-season. Gibson should not be re-signed.

They have scouts diving through the league's dumpsters as we speak! 

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#26 Number3

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Posted 20 August 2019 - 07:37 AM

RLISP story of game. Win the series and all is well.

As far as Gibson goes, he takes the ball when its his turn, goes out and gives a predictable performance. 4 runs is not enough to win the great majority of games. No more complicated than that.

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#27 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 20 August 2019 - 07:39 AM

At what point does last year become the outlier for Gibson? He had a career low BABIP and career high LOB%.

Theres 28 AL pitchers with enough innings pitched to qualify, he's 20th in ERA this season


He's 7% better than league average this season.
So even if you want to toss out last season as an outlier, he's still by definition a #3 on an average team.
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#28 terrydactyls1947

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Posted 20 August 2019 - 07:41 AM

Yesterday was Monday, August 19.It was the 125th game of the year putting the Twins 77% of the way through the season.The Twins hit 1 home run upping their record-breaking season total to 241 home runs.They are now only 26 home runs behind the single-season MLB record.


#29 Riverbrian

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Posted 20 August 2019 - 07:44 AM

Perhaps it should have been challenged, but I'm not sure I agree with your conclusion that it was a violation.

Below is the exact moment where the ball enters the catcher's glove (and presumably the catcher gains the full right to place his foot wherever he wants). As you can see, Sano's hand has not yet reached the foot, thus he hasn't been blocked by it yet.

ec550ecd-e83921a7-732e3242-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_4000K-.jpg


I do believe it would have been a long review. The jeopardy theme would have played to conclusion 3 or 4 times
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#30 spycake

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Posted 20 August 2019 - 07:45 AM

 

I could be mistaken, but does it matter Sano has not physically reached the catcher or the plate yet? His pathway was blocked even though he is yet to be there. 

That's a possible interpretation of the written rule, but in application, I don't think that distinction matters too much.

 

Here's the video frame from the recent Twins-Cleveland game, when Adrianza got thrown out at the plate. Obviously Adrianza was much further away at the time, but the Cleveland catcher likely had his foot in the same spot before he caught the ball.

 

469c8120-b1c7fc2c-cb606739-csvm-diamondx64-asset_1280x720_59_4000K-.jpg

 

In application, I don't think there's any "magic line" that Sano crossed, as compared to Adrianza -- neither was blocked by the foot while the ball was not in the catcher's possession.

 

Here's the rule Brian quoted last night:

 

 

 

 

MLB Rule 7.13 (2)

Unless the catcher is in possession of the ball, the catcher cannot block the pathway of the runner as he is attempting to score.If, in the judgment of the Umpire, the catcher without possession of the ball blocks the pathway of the runner, the Umpire shall call or signal the runner safe.

Notwithstanding the above, it shall not be considered a violation of this Rule 7.13 if the catcher blocks the pathway of the runner in order to field a throw, and the Umpire determines that the catcher could not have fielded the ball without blocking the pathway of the runner and that contact with the runner was unavoidable.

 

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#31 prouster

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Posted 20 August 2019 - 07:54 AM

Interesting development:

  • Jake Cave, ML batting stats after this game: .261 / .358 / .374
  • Byron Buxton, 2019 to date: .262 / .314 / .513
  • Eddie Rosario: .282 / .307 / .519
  • Max Kepler: .255 / .336 / .529
Defensively there's no comparison between Cave and Buxton or Kepler. However, if Cave keeps increasing the gap in his on base numbers and closing in SLG. there is a case for platooning him with Buxton and Rosario, with Buxton getting the call in late innings of tight games.

Cave is a terrible defender. And look at that slugging percentage you cited.

#32 SpicyGarvSauce

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Posted 20 August 2019 - 08:04 AM

Are Rocco and his coaching staff sleeping in the dugout?
 

This is the 2nd play that should have been challenged over the last few days. There have been more egregious plays that they challenged, but choose to not challenge these most recent ones?

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#33 spycake

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Posted 20 August 2019 - 08:16 AM

 

Thanks for the photo. In my opinion. Sano would have been safe if not blocked. That I’m convinced of.

If he can’t apply a tag in time. He certainly can’t move his foot in time to block the plate.

The only way he is able to block the plate is if it was pre-blocked prior to the ball arriving and that is against the rules.

The only question should be. Did he need to block the plate in order to catch the ball? I believe the answer to that is no. He had an unnecessary wide stance, which blocked the plate.

It was a great play by the Sox but the Posey rule is in the books and this appears to be the definition of what you can’t do.

In the end. Brand new game today.

 

The throw was very low to the ground. Which implies the catcher would need to widen his stance to field it, as compared to receiving a higher throw. And his stance was widened only as he was moving his whole body in the direction of the throw. All of that seems allowable by the rule. Catchers aren't required to wait for the throw in a seated or kneeling position.

 

Keep in mind, the rule was put in place to protect catchers from collisions. After some initial confusion, I think they've tightened up enforcement over the past few years with that purpose in mind, although such things still aren't 100% consistent or predictable. Which is why it still may have been worth a challenge (although that's precisely what I hate about the challenge system).

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#34 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 20 August 2019 - 08:27 AM

 

The throw was very low to the ground. Which implies the catcher would need to widen his stance to field it, as compared to receiving a higher throw. And his stance was widened only as he was moving his whole body in the direction of the throw. All of that seems allowable by the rule. Catchers aren't required to wait for the throw in a seated or kneeling position.

 

Keep in mind, the rule was put in place to protect catchers from collisions. After some initial confusion, I think they've tightened up enforcement over the past few years with that purpose in mind, although such things still aren't 100% consistent or predictable. Which is why it still may have been worth a challenge (although that's precisely what I hate about the challenge system).

Well summarized. This was not a gimme play that would automatically have been overturned. I don't know the percentages but I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if New York let the call stand almost immediately.

 

Would I have challenged? Sure, but I don't think it's some massive oversight where everyone on the Twins suddenly forgot the rules. What's more likely than the team forgetting the rules is that they have seen far more of these plays and know a challenge is likely wasted on a play of this kind.

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#35 bighat

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Posted 20 August 2019 - 08:33 AM

 

At what point does last year become the outlier for Gibson? He had a career low BABIP and career high LOB%. 

 

Theres 28 AL pitchers with enough innings pitched to qualify, he's 20th in ERA this season 

 

Yeah I agree with you. Last year appears to be an albatross, a career year for Gibson that erased a lot of skepticism. Perez experienced a blip this year at the beginning of the season as well, but he's also returned to average form.

 

The Twins have certainly benefited from the spikes in productivity - not saying that Gibson's career year last season and Perez' first half were bad things. But, this team is going to have to take its lumps with these guys on the hill, and just basically cross their fingers and hope things go well.

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#36 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 20 August 2019 - 08:33 AM

 

Are Rocco and his coaching staff sleeping in the dugout?
 

This is the 2nd play that should have been challenged over the last few days. There have been more egregious plays that they challenged, but choose to not challenge these most recent ones?

No tech is allowed in the dugout so Rocco isn't the person who actually sees the play. He has the final say on whether the challenge is deployed or not but he's working with limited information and a very short timeline to make a decision.

 

And I suspect whoever mans the Twins film booth has a lot more first-hand knowledge of the rules and likelihood of a play being overturned than anyone here.

 

That doesn't mean they're automatically right but as a person who has only seen a few of these plays since the rules change, despite watching a lot of baseball, I'm not in the position to say they were wrong with such finality.


#37 Mike Sixel

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Posted 20 August 2019 - 08:39 AM

 

At what point does last year become the outlier for Gibson? He had a career low BABIP and career high LOB%. 

 

Theres 28 AL pitchers with enough innings pitched to qualify, he's 20th in ERA this season 

 

Looking only at qualifiers is silly. A LOT MORE than 28 pitchers pitch in the AL. If you expand that to a number where you have 100+ starters in the AL, he's right in the middle of all pitchers. Unless you think only comparing him to the 28 best players is a fair way to judge him compared to the 131 pitchers that have started an AL game.....

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#38 alarp33

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Posted 20 August 2019 - 08:49 AM

 

Looking only at qualifiers is silly. A LOT MORE than 28 pitchers pitch in the AL. If you expand that to a number where you have 100+ starters in the AL, he's right in the middle of all pitchers. Unless you think only comparing him to the 28 best players is a fair way to judge him compared to the 131 pitchers that have started an AL game.....

 

I mean I was throwing out a pretty simple comparison, not really trying to argue the merits of qualifying innings. I don't know how relevant comparing him to guys who have started 1 game is either. Lower it to 70 innings? 36th of 56.He hasn't been very good, feel free to pick away at the loose numbers I used to show the Twins should expect more from him

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#39 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 20 August 2019 - 08:55 AM

This site is really good at showing the disparity of last night's game.

 

Look at the hard hit numbers on the right for each pitcher and then sort by exit velocity down below for hitters. Gibson actually pitched a good game and got burned by some bad luck and sequencing. 

 

On the other hand, the Twins were mashing the ball and had very little to show for it.

 

That's baseball sometimes, as infuriating as it may be. While I'm pretty bent out of shape over the loss because the Twins need to win these games, I'm actually encouraged by Kyle's performance and command.

 

https://baseballsava...?game_pk=567024

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#40 alarp33

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Posted 20 August 2019 - 09:02 AM

 

This site is really good at showing the disparity of last night's game.

 

Look at the hard hit numbers on the right for each pitcher and then sort by exit velocity down below for hitters. Gibson actually pitched a good game and got burned by some bad luck and sequencing. 

 

On the other hand, the Twins were mashing the ball and had very little to show for it.

 

That's baseball sometimes, as infuriating as it may be. While I'm pretty bent out of shape over the loss because the Twins need to win these games, I'm actually encouraged by Kyle's performance and command.

 

https://baseballsava...?game_pk=567024

 

I am as in to the underlying stats and metrics as anyone, there is tons of value in that stuff. 

 

But it's August of a pennant race and Gibson is not getting the job done, repeatedly. I don't care that his underlying performance was promising, I care that his team got him a 2 run lead and he couldn't protect it.. which has become a common occurrence from him

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