studs that were signed as studs - I like this category of signing as long as you have the money and the pitcher is actual stud
CC 7/161 – Fangraphs Value = 103 million
Lee 5/120 – Fangraphs Value = 52 million
International FA's - originally excluded because of how I sorted at mlbtraderumors - both were around 100M guys with the posting fee. pretty much paid as studs.
Darvish – Fangraphs Value = 23 million
Dice-K - did not work out partly due to injuries – Fangraphs Value = 44 million
too early to tell - can't really included since 75-80% of the contract remains. I'm not optimistic about these two pitching well in their mid and late 30's
Buehrle 4/58 – Fangraphs Value = 9.5 million
Wilson 5/75 – Fangraphs Value = 11 million
somewhat decent guys that probably qualify as #3's
Dempster 4/52 – Fangraphs Value = 56 million
Lilly 4/40 – Fangraphs Value = 44 million
most would consider these contracts brutally awful - Meche is the best in this group
Fan Graphs & Kab Agree
Ollie Perez 3/36 - was hurt for the entire contract and he was so bad when he did pitch that the Mets would have been better if he hadn't pitched – Fangraphs Value = -8 million
Silva 4/48 - he was beyond awful – Fangraphs Value = 14 million
Zito - 7/126 - signed as a stud and performed as a #4/5 – Fangraphs Value = 30 million
Suppan 4/42 - he was a #3 before and he performed as a #5 or worse – Fangraphs Value = 7 million
Schmidt - 3/47 - I don't think he ever threw a pitch for the Dodgers. Ironically the giants let him go so they could make a bigger mistake signing Zito. – Fangraphs Value = 0 million
Fan Graphs & Kab Disagree
lackey 5/82.5 - pitched awful and had TJ in his 3rd season – Fangraphs Value = 23.5 million
Lowe 4/60 - he had ERA's between 4 and 5+ during his 4 seasons – Fangraphs Value = 40 million
Burnett 5/82.5 - an alright first season but he was so bad in the next two that the Yankees paid the pirates to take him – Fangraphs Value = 43 million
Meche 5/55 - had two decent seasons before he wrecked his arm. he actually retired a year early and forfeited the final year of his contract – Fangraphs Value = 46 million
I think the interesting thing above is that Fangraphs and Kab actually agree most of the time. Pretty much all of the at the top are as he describes. The difference is once we get in to the brutally awful contracts. Again, Kab and Fangraphs agree on half of them. Perez, Silva, Zito, Suppan, and Schmidt were truly awful contracts. Where they begin to disagree is on Lackey, Lowe, Burnett, and Meche. The question is, what do you do when there is a disagreement? Do you disregard the numbers out of hand or do you take a second look? Take a second look at those guys and they are not as bad as you would expect:
Lackey – A good first year with the Red Sox (4.40 ERA in Fenway and 200+ innings) followed by a bad year and a lost year. If he comes back well from Tommy John I think he still has potential to provide a %50-60 return on the Red Sox investment. Not good, but not truly awful. Fun Fact: Red Sox get a free season from Lackey due to a quirk in his contract so this is really a 6 year/83.5 million contract now.http://www.weei.com/...ox-solution-201
Lowe – 2 years of good ERA (4.00 and 4.67) and 2 years of bad (5.05 and 5.67) but his FIP never got above 4.59. Fangraphs says he was a %66 return on investment which seems about right. Not good, but not truly awful.
Burnett – I put a table out above that shows 2 good seasons (4.04 and 3.51 ERA) and 2 bad seasons (5.26 and 5.15 ERA). I think a 4.04 ERA in Yankee stadium is pretty good and a 3.51 ERA is as well. I think if he has another good season in Pittsburgh that he will end up a %60-80 return on investment.
Meche – He had 2 really good year with the Royals, 1 bad year, and 1 injured year. If you adjust his contract to 4 years/$44 million due to him opting out of the last year he actually gave the Royals almost equal value.
I would truly be interested in the values that other posters on Twins Daily would assign to these pitchers performance. If Lackey is not worth $23.5 million his first three years, what is he worth? How far off are the Fangraphs numbers to ones you would assign? Thanks!