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Twins will seek 'affordable pitchers'

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#41 kab21

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Posted 15 October 2012 - 10:07 PM

Why are so worried about "overpaying"? You have to pay the market rate to get players. Why only aim for cheap players all the time? Why NEVER sign a free agent that is big time, never?


I'm all for signing FA's. The problem is that there is a limited supply each season and that's why you have to overpay. That's fine if you think a player will at least be decent for most of the contract. It's a problem if you have to go to 5 years and it's likely that the player will have declined a lot. For example do you think the two good starters from last offseason (Beuhrle and Wilson) will still be average pitchers at the end of their contracts? Many people have thought that Blackburn's 5M is a burden. How much more of a burden is a 15M bad contract? What if you have 2-3 bad contracts like that because you have gone nuts in FA with the wrong players? Perhaps you look like the Mets and Cubs.

#42 Kobs

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Posted 15 October 2012 - 10:25 PM

Why are so worried about "overpaying"? You have to pay the market rate to get players. Why only aim for cheap players all the time? Why NEVER sign a free agent that is big time, never?


I'm all for signing FA's. The problem is that there is a limited supply each season and that's why you have to overpay. That's fine if you think a player will at least be decent for most of the contract. It's a problem if you have to go to 5 years and it's likely that the player will have declined a lot. For example do you think the two good starters from last offseason (Beuhrle and Wilson) will still be average pitchers at the end of their contracts? Many people have thought that Blackburn's 5M is a burden. How much more of a burden is a 15M bad contract? What if you have 2-3 bad contracts like that because you have gone nuts in FA with the wrong players? Perhaps you look like the Mets and Cubs.


That would be terrible to be as bad as the Mets and Cubs!

#43 kab21

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Posted 15 October 2012 - 10:43 PM

That would be terrible to be as bad as the Mets and Cubs!


The Cubs and Mets have been spending 140M/yr to be terrible for years and they have terrible farm systems. they finally have made the decision to cut payroll, ditch their expensive veterans and build thru their farm system. Kind of what the Twins are currently doing.

#44 Kobs

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Posted 15 October 2012 - 10:45 PM



That would be terrible to be as bad as the Mets and Cubs!


The Cubs and Mets have been spending 140M/yr to be terrible for years and they have terrible farm systems. they finally have made the decision to cut payroll, ditch their expensive veterans and build thru their farm system. Kind of what the Twins are currently doing.


...and what the Pirates and Royals have been doing for twenty years.

#45 kab21

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Posted 15 October 2012 - 11:17 PM

...and what the Pirates and Royals have been doing for twenty years.


Still a weak comparison. The Pirates and Royals were completely inept orgs that were terrible at drafting and player development. In addition to that they were consistently going cheap in the draft and not taking the best players. Additionally they never had money available to spend on FA's when they started putting together a young core of players. The Pirates and Royals finally understood how to build a farm system and there is finally hope for their franchises. The Twins have shown that they will spend in the draft and internationally. they also have a lot of money to spend once they start putting a decent team together. In the meantime they don't even need to go really cheap in FA. they just need to avoid big mistakes like the Wilsons, Lowes, Burnetts, Lackeys, etc...

#46 mike wants wins

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Posted 16 October 2012 - 07:20 AM

So never sign a free agent because you might be wrong? If you do not trust your gm, you have an issue. They did not sign any free agent when they were one player short earlier this century. Mauer is not getting younger, you are flushing all that money down the toilet if you refuse to sign other players. If the plan isn't to sign 2 legit starting pitchers, then they should deal almost every veteran on the roster.

#47 SweetOne69

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Posted 16 October 2012 - 07:27 AM

If Santana had wanted to stay here, the Twins would have paid him.


This is completely untrue. The Twins were not willing to pay Santana.


The Twins were willing to sign Santana for 4 or 5 years at $20M/year. Under pressure by is agent and the Players Union he wanted to be the highest paid pitcher in baseball.

The fact of the matter is Santana wanted out. He wanted to play in a large market.

Looking back with how often Santana has been hurt over the last 5 years, I'm sure the Twins are thankful they lost him.

#48 kab21

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Posted 16 October 2012 - 11:24 AM

So never sign a free agent because you might be wrong? If you do not trust your gm, you have an issue. They did not sign any free agent when they were one player short earlier this century. Mauer is not getting younger, you are flushing all that money down the toilet if you refuse to sign other players. If the plan isn't to sign 2 legit starting pitchers, then they should deal almost every veteran on the roster.


I've never said don't sign any. The problem is that a majority of the good starters go for 50-100M contracts and most of them end up being poor investments. A lot of good GM's have signed absolute crap in FA especially when you talk about non elite SP'ing so the trust your GM is complete crap. If you start shopping in the 20-30M price range then you are probably getting a #4 starter. You can improve your team in FA but you won't find the answers from turning a 90+ loss team into a contender.

I also disagree with either contend or burn it to the ground trade all veterans. The Twins should be trading those with significant value but that list is short and Span/Willingham will still be valuable at the deadline or next offseason. No reason to just dump veterans for the sake of getting younger. The only prospects that are even remotely blocked are at OF/1B but that should work itself out by midseason.

#49 mike wants wins

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Posted 16 October 2012 - 11:51 AM

So if they did a great job of identifying the three best pitchers. Those three were great investments for three years and helped them get far in the postseason.....would that be worth the next two bad years? Every deal carries risk, the Twins seem to have almost no risk tolerance at all. That tends to limit the success of any business.

#50 kab21

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Posted 16 October 2012 - 05:45 PM

So if they did a great job of identifying the three best pitchers. Those three were great investments for three years and helped them get far in the postseason.....would that be worth the next two bad years? Every deal carries risk, the Twins seem to have almost no risk tolerance at all. That tends to limit the success of any business.


I think in the end you believe that there are easy answers in FA that just don't exist. There's absolutely no way the Twins are going to be able to get 3 good SP'ers away from other teams. And you're not finding #1, #2 or #3 w/o putting the Twins at a serious risk at being bad for a long time due to some significant money tied up in mediocre players.

Here's as much as I'm okay with: sign the best starter the team can get for 3/35, trade Willy/Span for a guy like Shields and sign a guy like Baker/villanueva/etc on a short deal. This way the long term risk has been minimized and there is a chance that they have a solid rotation. Minimizing long term risk doesn't automatically equal completely punting the current teams.

5 year contracts for 30+ yr old non-elite pitchers are a terrible idea and I am 100% against any signing. Greinke is the only pitcher in this market that should get a 5 yr contract since he's younger and doesn't have any injury issues.

#51 darin617

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Posted 16 October 2012 - 07:42 PM

[quote name='Kobs'][quote name='old nurse']If Santana had wanted to stay here, the Twins would have paid him. [/QUOTE]

This is completely untrue. The Twins were not willing to pay Santana.[/QUOTE

Be thankful that he was traded. I am almost certain his contract calls for $25M this season.

#52 greengoblinrulz

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Posted 16 October 2012 - 10:09 PM

Terry Ryan will make a 3yr 30m offer to Mark Buehrle when he says he wont consider anything under 4 yrs. They'll offer 5yrs 100m to Johan Santana when he says he wont take less than 7 yrs. Same with Torri Hunter...offering 3yrs when he wanted 5
MN is about making just low enough of an offer to be in the arguement, but not really get serious with the player. Funny that they think that fans actuallly buy any of that

#53 mike wants wins

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Posted 17 October 2012 - 06:58 AM

Actually, I think no such thing. This stuff is hard. But, I think ignoring one avenue to fix things, actually two as they also refuse to trade good prospects for proven players...other than 1 really bad trade, is a bad strategy. Your plan sounds reasonable to me. But that would he unlike this team to even do that.

#54 beckmt

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Posted 17 October 2012 - 07:57 AM

[quote name='darin617'][quote name='Kobs'][quote name='old nurse']If Santana had wanted to stay here, the Twins would have paid him. [/QUOTE]

This is completely untrue. The Twins were not willing to pay Santana.[/QUOTE

Be thankful that he was traded. I am almost certain his contract calls for $25M this season.[/QUOTE]
Twins scouts had a read that Santana would be an average pitcher by the middle end of his contract. That has turned out to happen because of injuries, he has missed chucks of time the last 2 - 3 years. Trade was terrible, but that was another issue. Boston would have been a much better trade partner.
Twins need to find pitchers for 1 or 2 years with an option, maybe 3 for the younger ones as it will be that long before Twins minor league starters are ready. More hope in that a trade can be made to bring in decent major league ready pitching.

#55 beckmt

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Posted 17 October 2012 - 07:59 AM

Actually, I think no such thing. This stuff is hard. But, I think ignoring one avenue to fix things, actually two as they also refuse to trade good prospects for proven players...other than 1 really bad trade, is a bad strategy. Your plan sounds reasonable to me. But that would he unlike this team to even do that.

This is really bad strategy, trading major league players to get a James sheilds if for more than one year would be a good strategy. Twins need to build a bridge, and expect this draft will be weaker than last years, so finding good pitching at the top will be difficult

#56 Top Gun

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Posted 17 October 2012 - 08:36 AM

All pitchers are affordable.

#57 nicksaviking

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Posted 17 October 2012 - 09:52 AM

[quote name='beckmt'][quote name='darin617'][quote name='Kobs'][quote name='old nurse']If Santana had wanted to stay here, the Twins would have paid him. [/QUOTE]

This is completely untrue. The Twins were not willing to pay Santana.[/QUOTE

Be thankful that he was traded. I am almost certain his contract calls for $25M this season.[/QUOTE]
Twins scouts had a read that Santana would be an average pitcher by the middle end of his contract. That has turned out to happen because of injuries, he has missed chucks of time the last 2 - 3 years. Trade was terrible, but that was another issue. Boston would have been a much better trade partner.
Twins need to find pitchers for 1 or 2 years with an option, maybe 3 for the younger ones as it will be that long before Twins minor league starters are ready. More hope in that a trade can be made to bring in decent major league ready pitching.[/QUOTE]

Santana has been hurt and the long-term contract for the then 29-year-old was not a good deal for the Mets. However, that only helps to overshadow the fact that Terry Ryan probably should have looked to extend his left-handed 25-year-old Cy Young winner for more than 4 years in the first place back in the 2004 off-season.

#58 Twins Twerp

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Posted 17 October 2012 - 09:52 AM

Keep your prospects, we do need a few guys to bridge us to the next crop of Twin studs. When rebuilding, you don't have to go the route of Houston. You definatly don't have to go the route of Kansas City, we can be competitive while still building up our farm system. We do need some pitching, but we need to get it by signing Type B, not A, free agents and trading proven major league commodities who do not fit the long term plans. I am thinking Morneau, Span or Reverre (one of but not both), and Willingham. Keep building up that farm system. If we trade one of the men I just mentioned for some minor league pitching, we could still be competitive while building for the future.

#59 PopRiveter

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Posted 17 October 2012 - 11:28 AM

If Santana had wanted to stay here, the Twins would have paid him.


This is completely untrue. The Twins were not willing to pay Santana.

It was widely reported that the Twins offered Santana 5 years, $93 million. That was a HUGE number for the Twins to offer at the time. He countered at $126 million which seemed to indicate that he had no interest in being part of the Metrodome era, small-market Twins team anymore.
Had the Twins signed him at $126, Mauer would've likely been gone after his MVP season while heading into a new ballpark. Santana's 2010 was excellent as usual and would've been nice to have, but then he got hurt in Sept. His surgery would've been the same albatross around the neck of the 2011 season that Mauer's bad health was.
It is very high risk to sign pitchers to big deals. More often than not, high-end deals blow up in your face. The results are especially bad with pitchers (and Alex Rodriguez.)
Ryan has managed to pull value out of low-moderate risk guys at most positions, but I can't think of many successful SPs he's acquired from outside the organization. Kenny Rogers comes to mind.

Edited by PopRiveter, 17 October 2012 - 11:38 AM.


#60 ThePuck

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Posted 17 October 2012 - 11:32 AM

he just dropped payroll by 18M this year...and it seems he's going to do it again...that doesn't scream he's turned into a spender...