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Front Page: Twins Game Recap (8/16): Twins Prevail Behind Clutch Schoop HR, Great Bullpen Performance

jake odorizzi jonathan schoop max kepler marwin gonzalez sergio romo
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#21 howeda7

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Posted 17 August 2019 - 06:47 AM

Since Rogers has been awful in back-to-backs, why not use him for the 2 inning save and have Romo pitch the 9th tomorrow if needed?

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#22 rdehring

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Posted 17 August 2019 - 07:31 AM

 

Yesterday was Friday, August 16.It was the 122nd game of the year putting the Twins 75% of the way through the season.The Twins hit 2 home runs upping their record-breaking season total to 238 home runs.They are now only 29 home runs behind the single-season MLB record.

When will the Twins hit #267?


#23 rdehring

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Posted 17 August 2019 - 07:32 AM

Isn't Duffey settling into his role nicely?Has been great coming out of the pen with men on base and keeping there on most days.

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#24 Dantes929

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Posted 17 August 2019 - 07:55 AM

 

His 6th inning ERA this year is 3.00 (4 ER/12IP).

His worst inning is actually the 1st inning, and by a lot. (5.16)

According to baseball reference his 1st inning ERA is 4.94. 13 earned runs in almost 24 innings.Powered largely by giving up 5 runs in the 1st inning in his 2nd start of the year. His 6th inning ERA is 4.26.Pretty sure your stat didn't include last night's game.In his career the 6th and 7th innings haven't been very good.Of course in last night's game I thought he should have been pulled a batter sooner and might have avoided those two runs.Not just hindsight. I thought it was a key moment in the game and that Rogers could have gotten him and then pitch one more inning.Thanks to Schoop it wasn't disastrous.

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#25 jorgenswest

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Posted 17 August 2019 - 07:55 AM

Isn't Duffey settling into his role nicely?Has been great coming out of the pen with men on base and keeping there on most days.


I sorted him with relievers that have thrown at least 30 innings. In that group of over 200 pitchers he is 50th in ERA. That gives you an idea of how he has performed but not a reliable projector.

At the sample better indicators include his SIERA, XFIP and K%-BB% which rank in the 30s (32-39). All solid rankings in a group of 200.

He belongs as a middle reliever on a playoff team.
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#26 jorgenswest

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Posted 17 August 2019 - 08:04 AM

His 6th inning ERA this year is 3.00 (4 ER/12IP).
His worst inning is actually the 1st inning, and by a lot. (5.16)


Overall starting pitchers have their highest ERA in the first inning.

There is bias in the sample. The group of batters they will have faced in the first inning are better than the group they will have faced in any other inning. They are guaranteed to see the best hitters of the opposing team.

That same bias can be found when looking data in the number of times a pitcher faces a batter. The third time through will be worse for pitchers overall. A big factor is that same bias due to sample. Most pitchers will hit their pitch count somewhere around 22-24 batters. The group of batters in that third time through is heavily biased toward the top of the line up and the opposing team’s best hitters.
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#27 twins1095

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Posted 17 August 2019 - 08:34 AM

Isn't Duffey settling into his role nicely? Has been great coming out of the pen with men on base and keeping there on most days.



He definitely is, but Duffey as your 4th bullpen guy versus Duffey as your 2nd bullpen guy is a very different thing.

Same phenomena with May. He hasn’t figured it out in the same way Duffey has, but I think it’s a when thing for May rather than an if.
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#28 USAFChief

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Posted 17 August 2019 - 08:44 AM

The Twins are undefeated in road games attended by most of Chief's family.

Perhaps someone should start a go fund me campaign to ensure we are at all remaining road games.

Oh, and dont forget the Embassy Suites digs. 3 rental cars as well, and make em SUVs.

My family has agreed to suck up the travel hardship in the interests of keeping the TD faithful happy.

I can also confirm that Chief called the Schoop HR. He was right on that lefty all night.

You're welcome.

Edit: just to be on the safe side, prolly should send us to all home games too. Just to be safe, mind you. This is no time to be depending on SSS home/road splits.

Edit to edit: obviously, this applies to post season games as well. Obviously.
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#29 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 17 August 2019 - 08:59 AM

According to baseball reference his 1st inning ERA is 4.94. 13 earned runs in almost 24 innings. Powered largely by giving up 5 runs in the 1st inning in his 2nd start of the year. His 6th inning ERA is 4.26. Pretty sure your stat didn't include last night's game. In his career the 6th and 7th innings haven't been very good. Of course in last night's game I thought he should have been pulled a batter sooner and might have avoided those two runs. Not just hindsight. I thought it was a key moment in the game and that Rogers could have gotten him and then pitch one more inning. Thanks to Schoop it wasn't disastrous.


I also used beef, but you're right, it hadn't updated from last night's results yet.
Thanks.
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#30 OldTimeTwinkie

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Posted 17 August 2019 - 09:00 AM

Adrianza has got to stay at Short. He is hitting now as well as Polanco but gives us much needed defense. You can't win this thing giving away outs. Our pitching isn't that good.

#31 LA VIkes Fan

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Posted 17 August 2019 - 09:17 AM

He definitely is, but Duffey as your 4th bullpen guy versus Duffey as your 2nd bullpen guy is a very different thing.
Same phenomena with May. He hasn’t figured it out in the same way Duffey has, but I think it’s a when thing for May rather than an if.

Absolutely right. We criticize the FO but getting it to relievers with key. Now Nay and Duffy can pitch as the 4th and 5th guys in the bullpen and they'll be much more effective.
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#32 Circus Boy

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Posted 17 August 2019 - 09:34 AM

 

Absolutely right. We criticize the FO but getting it to relievers with key. Now Nay and Duffy can pitch as the 4th and 5th guys in the bullpen and they'll be much more effective.

The mean kids called him horseface.

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#33 Battle ur tail off

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Posted 17 August 2019 - 09:36 AM

Adrianza quietly having a fantastic year. He has been an extremely valuable bench player. Glad he is with us. Good teams need guys like this. 

 

 

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#34 Only Here in Negative

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Posted 17 August 2019 - 09:39 AM

Since Rogers has been awful in back-to-backs, why not use him for the 2 inning save and have Romo pitch the 9th tomorrow if needed?


That is confirmation bias. In a very small sample, he's been a bit rough when he pitched two innings one day and then pitches the next. When it's one inning he's fine. And even that two inning thing is really a pretty small sample.

#35 Aerodeliria

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Posted 17 August 2019 - 09:41 AM

Nice 'W'. I was so happy with how the bullpen performed in a very tight game.

And a big hat tip to Rogers who had to deal with another late inning error from Sano and pitched his way through the mess.

We may occasionally be able to skate through a late inning error or two in a tight game, but more often than not such things will lead to late inning heartbreaks, especially when playing teams like the Yankees.

So should we put Gonzales at 3rd and Adrianza at ss for the 8th and 9th just to protect a one/two run lead? The errors are really piling up in these tight games for Sano and Polanco. What say you?

#36 bighat

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Posted 17 August 2019 - 09:46 AM

I know people are gushing about the bullpen, but...

 

Dyson, Rogers, and Romo all allowed two baserunners in each of their innings. Both Dyson and Rogers got themselves into situations where Texas had guys on 1st and 3rd. Romo walked and allowed a hit in the 9th.

 

I am thrilled with the win, and it was nice to see the bullpen keep Texas off the scoreboard. But they simply survived, but they didn't come in and mow the Rangers down, not even close. Good job. Not great by any stretch of the imagination.

 

A win tonight would be fantastic and ensure a winning week and road trip.

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#37 stringer bell

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Posted 17 August 2019 - 09:56 AM

Right now (and really since June), the only area where Polanco is superior is power, especially from the left side. Jorge has really not been that good for two and a half months. Whatever can be done to "fix" Polanco is needed and the dropoff to Adrianza isn't much of a dropoff at all.

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#38 prouster

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Posted 17 August 2019 - 10:00 AM

I know people are gushing about the bullpen, but...

Dyson, Rogers, and Romo all allowed two baserunners in each of their innings. Both Dyson and Rogers got themselves into situations where Texas had guys on 1st and 3rd. Romo walked and allowed a hit in the 9th.

I am thrilled with the win, and it was nice to see the bullpen keep Texas off the scoreboard. But they simply survived, but they didn't come in and mow the Rangers down, not even close. Good job. Not great by any stretch of the imagination.

A win tonight would be fantastic and ensure a winning week and road trip.


In Dyson’s defense, the home plate ump squeezed him out of at least one strike in the Kiner-Falefa at bat. That one should have ended in a strike out instead of a walk.
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#39 stringer bell

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Posted 17 August 2019 - 10:02 AM

 

I know people are gushing about the bullpen, but...

 

Dyson, Rogers, and Romo all allowed two baserunners in each of their innings. Both Dyson and Rogers got themselves into situations where Texas had guys on 1st and 3rd. Romo walked and allowed a hit in the 9th.

 

I am thrilled with the win, and it was nice to see the bullpen keep Texas off the scoreboard. But they simply survived, but they didn't come in and mow the Rangers down, not even close. Good job. Not great by any stretch of the imagination.

 

A win tonight would be fantastic and ensure a winning week and road trip.

I am not going to gush about the bullpen's performance yesterday. They got the job done for 3+ innings and each guy showed they aren't close to invincible. These are veteran guys who rose to the occasion, which is good and there are three of them who can be trusted with a lead late. There are many bullpens that are in worse shape. I think the trade deadline acquisitions were what the club needed. I hope they were enough.

 

Oh yeah. A rested Taylor Rogers against 90% of left handed hitters is a severe mismatch. Ask Mr. Odor.

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#40 gbg

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Posted 17 August 2019 - 11:00 AM

Re: Kepler -

 

"This was his 33rd home run of the season, which moved him closer to the single season record for a Twins outfielder, as informed by our Twins Daily own Ted Schwerzler"

 

It also gave him the most home runs in a season by a European-born player. He beats out Bobby Thompson in that famous 1951 season. 

 

AND, is nice payback for getting plunked the night before

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