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#41 twinsnorth49

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Posted 13 August 2019 - 12:34 PM

 

I read a stat that 35% of all stats are misleading to prove a point...

Just like here! It's amazing the stats and mental gymnastics to justify blowing an 11.5 game lead in 2 months isn't a big deal.

 

Who said it isn't a big deal? Your post wasn't as historically significant as you thought, that's all anyone pointed out. Just because some aren't looking to define the historical significance of losing the division more than 6 weeks before the season ends, doesn't mean they don't think dropping an 11 1/2 game lead isn't a big deal. It would be a way bigger deal if the season ended today, that's all. 

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#42 spycake

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Posted 13 August 2019 - 12:45 PM

 

Sure, but it's hardly historic to blow and 11 1/2 game lead. Unless its historic semantics. 

Is it all semantics, though? 

 

It's easier to come back from an 11 1/2 game deficit than it is to blow an 11 1/2 game lead.

 

Although it seems fairly historic to do either one (the 1978 Yankees, 1995 Mariners, and yes, even the 2006 Twins were notable comebacks in history too).


#43 gocgo

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Posted 13 August 2019 - 12:53 PM

 

They haven't lost the ALC yet, but... if they do, losing an 11.5 game lead is historic no matter whether you call it a "collapse" or not.

 

And for the record...it'd be a collapse. 

A collapse indicates that one team lost it rather than another team winning it.I would say right now that the Twins aren't losing it....that may still happen, but Cleveland is playing better than any other team in the AL right now.Gotta give them some credit.

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#44 twinsnorth49

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Posted 13 August 2019 - 12:59 PM

Is it all semantics, though?

It's easier to come back from an 11 1/2 game deficit than it is to blow an 11 1/2 game lead.

Although it seems fairly historic to do either one (the 1978 Yankees, 1995 Mariners, and yes, even the 2006 Twins were notable comebacks in history too).


I meant with it being over the 2nd place team.

I’d say it’s even more historic to blow that lead while playing over .500 since that lead was established. Although if they win tonight, that lead is no longer “blown” , is it? I look forward to the 6 weeks see saw of “blown”, “not blown” posts.
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#45 Dantes929

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Posted 13 August 2019 - 01:00 PM

 

I read a stat that 35% of all stats are misleading to prove a point...

Just like here! It's amazing the stats and mental gymnastics to justify blowing an 11.5 game lead in 2 months isn't a big deal.

Like many things, I equate this to my golf game.If I am a 10 handicap and shoot a 37 on the front 9 but follow with my usual 41 on the back 9 i will be very happy with my 78 with just a little thought to what might have been.If I shoot a 51 on the back I will have blown the round.If I shoot a 46 I will end up with the score I expected before I started play but it will be disappointing. If you ever thought the Twins were truly a 40-18 team then I can see how you might look at their slightly better than .500 pace now and say they are blowing it. It might be mental gymnastics but its not to justify anything. If they win 95 games it will be a great season to me. I think the general consensus here was winning 84-87 games. Like my golf game after a great front 9 I would be disappointed if that is where they end up.In my opinion the blown lead has less to do with the Twins than with the Indians.Not even after the red hot start did I expect the twins to be 82-36 at this point which is what maintaining that lead would have meant given the current record. The only way I thought the Twins would have a 12 game lead at this point was if the Indians really weren't that good.  

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#46 Vanimal46

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Posted 13 August 2019 - 01:02 PM

Who said it isn't a big deal? Your post wasn't as historically significant as you thought, that's all anyone pointed out. Just because some aren't looking to define the historical significance of losing the division more than 6 weeks before the season ends, doesn't mean they don't think dropping an 11 1/2 game lead isn't a big deal. It would be a way bigger deal if the season ended today, that's all.


Blowing a lead this large is still significant in history.

When fans shrug their shoulders and say meh, gotta tip your cap to Cleveland is dismissing what's been happening for 3 months.

#47 laloesch

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Posted 13 August 2019 - 01:04 PM

 

 I would say right now that the Twins aren't losing it....that may still happen, but Cleveland is playing better than any other team in the AL right now.Gotta give them some credit.

 

I gotta disagree on this.The Twins are kinda losing it.They didn't bolster the rotation (a clear need heading into the season) and they only slightly improved the bullpen at the trade deadline.They have blown a lot of games in the 2nd half due to bullpen meltdowns and more recently the starting rotation (aside from Berrios) has been just putrid.


#48 Mike Sixel

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Posted 13 August 2019 - 01:06 PM

 

A collapse indicates that one team lost it rather than another team winning it.I would say right now that the Twins aren't losing it....that may still happen, but Cleveland is playing better than any other team in the AL right now.Gotta give them some credit.

 

 

Didn't the Twins play better than any team in baseball to start the year? Didn't they have an 11.5 game lead? Or does the great play only matter for Cleveland? Cleveland lost their three best starting pitchers, and traded another, and have a MUCH better staff than the Twins, oh, and three of those starters are, what, 26 or younger? 

 

I mean, yes, Cleveland has been great lately, but the Twins were the best team in baseball for a few months, and now they are in second place. Some, maybe a lot, of that, is on the Twins, not just Cleveland playing great. If the Twins were 4 games over .500 the last two months, they'd be in first. That seems like a reasonable pace....

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#49 spycake

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Posted 13 August 2019 - 01:10 PM

 

I meant with it being over the 2nd place team.

I know, and I don't think that's just semantics. It's historically/mathematically easier to come back from 11.5 out of first place than to blow an 11.5 lead over 2nd place. The former has the advantage of another good team (or more) battling the first place club as they make their comeback.

 

But both are fairly historic occurrences.

 

 

I’d say it’s even more historic to blow that lead while playing over .500 since that lead was established. Although if they win tonight, that lead is no longer “blown” , is it? I look forward to the 6 weeks see saw of “blown”, “not blown” posts.

If you don't want to talk about it, you don't have to talk about it. But this is what a lot of fans talk about. People are going to talk about the implications of the Cleveland comeback / Twins collapse before it's official at the end of the season... they are going to talk about player performance before a certain sample size threshold has been reached...

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#50 twinsnorth49

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Posted 13 August 2019 - 01:32 PM

 

Blowing a lead this large is still significant in history.

When fans shrug their shoulders and say meh, gotta tip your cap to Cleveland is dismissing what's been happening for 3 months.

How is that dismissing what's been happening for the last 2 1/2 months?I'm the one that said it, I stand by it. Recognizing the pace the Indians have been on in the same time period is not dismissing the Twins play. But never mind, that would actually be reasoned discussion. Like I said, easier to grab the torches. 


#51 ScrapTheNickname

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Posted 13 August 2019 - 01:37 PM

1)

It's surprising to see that that the Twins are ranked 5th in the AL in ERA.

It seems that they are doing much worse than that!

 

2)

After the Twins went up by 7 1/2 games after the All-Star break I read a comment section by Indians fans, and they were all whining and writing the season off. Now we're doing the same thing.

 

2 a)

Things can change. Sometimes they even do.

 

 

Edited by ScrapTheNickname, 13 August 2019 - 01:38 PM.

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#52 twinsnorth49

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Posted 13 August 2019 - 01:39 PM

 

I know, and I don't think that's just semantics. It's historically/mathematically easier to come back from 11.5 out of first place than to blow an 11.5 lead over 2nd place. The former has the advantage of another good team (or more) battling the first place club as they make their comeback.

 

But both are fairly historic occurrences.

 

 

If you don't want to talk about it, you don't have to talk about it. But this is what a lot of fans talk about. People are going to talk about the implications of the Cleveland comeback / Twins collapse before it's official at the end of the season... they are going to talk about player performance before a certain sample size threshold has been reached...

Of course they will, it's not that I don't want to talk about it, or allow others to. It was meant in jest, that I look forward to the discussion which will see saw back and forth depending on whether the Twins are in first or second. I find the absolutes amusing, it's all I'm really referring to . If I didn't appreciate team and player analysis on an on going sample size,I wouldn't be here. 

 

 

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#53 SQUIRREL

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Posted 13 August 2019 - 01:44 PM

 

Blowing a lead this large is still significant in history.

When fans shrug their shoulders and say meh, gotta tip your cap to Cleveland is dismissing what's been happening for 3 months.

Or maybe they just have a different opinion and a different perspective. Your opinions are fine, so is theirs.

 

My opinion is, I think the Twins are playing to what was expected before the season started. Their pitching was always suspect and now it's come back to Earth. I'm not sure I'd label it a collapse since the way they were playing in the first half was beyond expectations. Disappointing and frustrating? Yeah, without a doubt. Particularly since, well ... the particularly since stuff is another thread. Maybe instead of collapse I'd say we're coming down from our high back to normal levels. It still sucks, though, and I want the high back.

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#54 twinsnorth49

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Posted 13 August 2019 - 01:44 PM

 

Didn't the Twins play better than any team in baseball to start the year? Didn't they have an 11.5 game lead? Or does the great play only matter for Cleveland? Cleveland lost their three best starting pitchers, and traded another, and have a MUCH better staff than the Twins, oh, and three of those starters are, what, 26 or younger? 

 

I mean, yes, Cleveland has been great lately, but the Twins were the best team in baseball for a few months, and now they are in second place. Some, maybe a lot, of that, is on the Twins, not just Cleveland playing great. If the Twins were 4 games over .500 the last two months, they'd be in first. That seems like a reasonable pace....

The funny part is both are probably aberrations. 

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#55 Mike Sixel

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Posted 13 August 2019 - 01:46 PM

 

1)

It's surprising to see that that the Twins are ranked 5th in the AL in ERA.

It seems that they are doing much worse than that!

 

2)

After the Twins went up by 7 1/2 games after the All-Star break I read a comment section by Indians fans, and they were all whining and writing the season off. Now we're doing the same thing.

 

2 a)

Things can change. Sometimes they even do.

 

That ERA hides the large number of unearned runs......Twins are 12th in runs allowed. 

It's been a fun year so far, GO Twins. 


#56 twinsnorth49

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Posted 13 August 2019 - 01:46 PM

 

Or maybe they just have a different opinion and a different perspective. Your opinions are fine, so is theirs.

 

My opinion is, I think the Twins are playing to what was expected before the season started. Their pitching was always suspect and now it's come back to Earth. I'm not sure I'd label it a collapse since the way they were playing in the first half was beyond expectations. Disappointing and frustrating? Yeah, without a doubt. Particularly since, well ... the particularly since stuff is another thread. Maybe instead of collapse I'd say we're coming down from our high back to normal levels. It still sucks, though, and I want the high back.

 

In other words...…….

 

giphy.gif

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#57 markos

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Posted 13 August 2019 - 01:48 PM

 

I know, and I don't think that's just semantics. It's historically/mathematically easier to come back from 11.5 out of first place than to blow an 11.5 lead over 2nd place. The former has the advantage of another good team (or more) battling the first place club as they make their comeback.

 

But both are fairly historic occurrences.

 

I think your not factoring in that the sample size of teams in the former situation (11.5 out) is way, way, way larger than the latter (2nd place team 11.5 out). It may seem 'easier', but multiple teams may find themselves in the former situation multiple times every season, while the latter might not happen at all in any given division.


#58 markos

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Posted 13 August 2019 - 01:53 PM

 

I mean, yes, Cleveland has been great lately, but the Twins were the best team in baseball for a few months, and now they are in second place. Some, maybe a lot, of that, is on the Twins, not just Cleveland playing great. If the Twins were 4 games over .500 the last two months, they'd be in first. That seems like a reasonable pace....

For what it's worth, if we use June 2nd (the high water mark for the division lead) as the dividing line, the Indian's have played better since June 2nd than the Twins played prior to June 2nd. And conversely, the Twins have played better since June 2nd than the Indians played prior to June 2nd.

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#59 spycake

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Posted 13 August 2019 - 02:01 PM

 

I think your not factoring in that the sample size of teams in the former situation (11.5 out) is way, way, way larger than the latter (2nd place team 11.5 out). It may seem 'easier', but multiple teams may find themselves in the former situation multiple times every season, while the latter might not happen at all in any given division.

Oh sure, that's part of it too. I didn't mean to imply it was "easier" at all. I should have said "more frequent."

 

But I got the feeling that one (11.5 out) was being invoked to suggest the other (11.5 up on 2nd place) wasn't that big of a deal. I think either "achievement" counts as historic, without semantics.


#60 mikelink45

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Posted 13 August 2019 - 02:09 PM

 



For those that say it's not a "collapse". It's potentially a historic collapse.

Entry
Blown leads
Last Update Aug 13 2019 02:20 PM

Here is a summary of the worst blown leads -- it is a sad litany.

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